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Nasdaq BABA Alibaba

After Brutal 76% Fall, is Alibaba Stock (NYSE:BABA) a Buy?

3 years 10 months ago
Alibaba ( NASDAQ: BABA ) stock has  declined by 41% over the past year and about 76% from its all-time high level back in 2020. It's not surprising that investors have sold off Alibaba with a passion. In a high-tension geopolitical environment, international stocks lose their appeal. Combine that with the lack of trust attached to Chinese equities due to corporate governance issues and the Chinese government's crackdown on big tech, and the perfect storm for Alibaba quickly formed. However, with the stock still trading near lows, investors should revisit Alibaba's investment case. At this point, the potential reward could overshadow the risks. Nonetheless, due to tons of speculation involved, I am neutral on the stock. Were Alibaba's Q3 Results Actually That Bad? Alibaba's bulls were hoping that the company's Q3 results would end up being a positive catalyst for the stock. Alibaba is known for its ability to deliver rich bottom-line numbers. With the stock trading this low, it makes sense to expect another profitable quarter would be enough to revive interest in the company. So, seeing Alibaba post a net loss of $3.2 billion for the quarter evaporated all sense of hope, but were Alibaba's Q3 results actually that bad? At first glance, the $3.2 billion net loss definitely appears frightening. However, some context is needed to shed light on this number. Specifically, the sole reason the company posted a loss is due to the decrease in the market prices of Alibaba's equity investments in publicly-traded companies. For instance, Alibaba owns a controlling stake in Alibaba Health Information Technology ( OTC: ALBHF ), whose shares have lost close to 1/4 of their value over the past year. In fact, interest and investment losses amounted to nearly $6.0 billion in Q3, which, again, are the sole contributor to Alibaba's negative bottom line. Operationally, however, the company remained robust while its free cash flow soared!  Revenues came in at $29.1 billion, up 3% year-over-year, which is quite impressive given the ongoing macroeconomic headwinds that have affected global commerce as well as China's zero-Covid policy. Further, Alibaba's adjusted EBITDA jumped 68% to $3.5 billion, while its EBITDA margin actually improved by 400 basis points to 21%, which is a great result considering this is a highly-inflationary environment that we are experiencing. Finally, with Alibaba reducing its capital expenditures, free cash flow skyrocketed 61% to $5.0 billion, implying a free cash flow margin of 17.1%. How Cheap is Alibaba Really? When valuing Alibaba, we need to make sure we don't take the company's non-cash losses (or gains) into account, as they can wildly sway its net income, as was the case in its Q3 results. With that in mind, based on Alibaba's year-to-date performance and Q4 outlook, Wall Street expects the company to post adjusted earnings per share of $7.27 this year, which implies the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of around 10.8x. One argument is that, obviously, this is a ridiculously low multiple, given the company is growing in a treacherous environment, and net income growth should even accelerate once the markets calm down. The fact that Alibaba has already repurchased approximately $18 billion of its shares under its share repurchase program, which was even boosted by an additional $15 billion recently, should further confirm this. Further, it's worth mentioning that since Alibaba is trading at such low valuation levels, share repurchases will be massively accretive to earnings per share in the coming years. On the flip side, you can argue that investors don't even care about Alibaba's valuation multiples. As long as scrutiny over Chinese equities persists and geopolitical risks remain, investors might as well just avoid Chinese equities like Alibaba altogether, regardless of how cheap they are. The risk of something going amiss regarding holding Chinese equities actually materializing may just not be worth taking on. Is BABA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Turning to Wall Street, Alibaba has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on the 15 unanimous Buys assigned in the past three months. At $133.73, the average Alibaba price target implies 76.2% upside potential. The Takeaway: A Buy for Speculative Investors Only It seems that nobody would oppose the idea that, from a plainly financial point of view, Alibaba shares are trading at a massive discount - so much so that the stock could double from here, and you'd still have a hard time arguing that it's expensive. In that sense, assuming the stock's valuation normalizes at some point, investors could enjoy exceptional returns from a P/E expansion alone. That said, it's entirely speculative whether investors are willing to flip the switch in their minds that would result in Alibaba's sentiment changing, and by the time they do, who knows what the stock's risk profile could look like at that point? Accordingly, while I would consider Alibaba a Buy numbers-wise, it could only be for speculative investors only. Disclosure
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Farfetch Stock Is Down 90% From Its High. Time to Buy?

3 years 10 months ago
Farfetch (NYSE: FTCH) stock hit its all-time high of $73.35 last February. But since then, shares of the London-based luxury e-tailer have plummeted in value by nearly 80% to about $8 a share -- or less than half its IPO price of $20.Farfetch disappointed investors with its slowi
The Motley Fool

Is Now the Right Time to Buy JD.com Stock?

3 years 10 months ago
JD.com's (NASDAQ: JD) stock dipped 4.5% on Nov. 18 after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted a mixed third-quarter earnings report. Its revenue rose 11% year over year to 243.5 billion yuan ($34.2 billion), which missed analysts' expectations by $270 million. However, its adjuste
The Motley Fool

Climb the Wall of Worry with These 5 "Strong Buy" Stocks

3 years 10 months ago
Standing on the cusp of a recession, investing in the equity market can be scary. Luckily, TipRanks’ Trending Stocks tool helps us see which stocks Wall Street analysts have rated the most recently. Here, we picked Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ), Bath & Body Works ( NYSE:BBWI ), TJX Companies ( NYSE:TJX ), Applied Materials ( NASDAQ:AMAT ), and Palo Alto Networks ( NASDAQ:PANW ) among the most-rated “Strong Buy” stocks trending recently. Alibaba (BABA) China’s strict COVID-19 policies, macroeconomic turmoil, competition, and slowing domestic demand have clobbered Alibaba. Its third-quarter results, which were posted last week, underscored the challenges, with revenues falling short of analyst estimates. However, retail sales in China are slowly but surely recovering, and that is good news for Alibaba. The e-commerce and technology giant is building an interesting concept called “New Retail,” which aims to bridge the gap between online and offline shopping by leveraging Big Data. This can be a new competition-kicker for Alibaba. Moreover, its net cash position and strong cash-flow-generating capabilities also allowed the company to  appraise its stock buyback program by an additional $15 billion and extend the program through Fiscal Year 2025. What is the Price Target for BABA Stock? Alibaba bulls have recently been reiterating their Buy ratings on BABA stock, despite lowering their near-term price targets. The average BABA price target stands at $133.73, which implies a remarkable 73.8% climb over the next 12 months. Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Personal care retailer Bath & Body Works appears to be taking care of the business too. Its cost-saving measures and vertically-integrated supply chain helped it fight the bottom-line headwinds and beat analyst expectations for  earnings per share in Q3. After the print, Morgan Stanley ( NYSE:MS ) analyst  Kimberly Greenberger raised her price target on Bath & Body Works stock to $76 from $72 while maintaining a Buy rating. She had anticipated the earnings beat but not the magnitude of the earnings surprise. Moreover, the company also raised its guidance during a time when demand is showing signs of being slower than usual around the holidays. This buoyed the confidence of Greenberger. Currently, the stock is  trading at a 10x P/E ratio, which is quite reasonable. The analyst sees several upsides and a chance for BBWI’s valuation to get materially re-rated upwards. Is BBWI Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Clearly, Wall Street is bullish on BBWI stock overall, based on nine Buys and two Holds assigned in the past three months. The average BBWI target price is $50.27, which is 27.1% higher than the current price. TJX Companies (TJX) TJX is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashion products, operating through the brands T.J. Maxx and Marshalls (Marmaxx), HomeGoods, Sierra, Homesense, etc. The company’s off-price business model, strategic store locations, large roster of good brands and fashion products, and efficient supply-chain management have been taking care of its well-being. In Q3,  strength in its apparel business blew some steam off of top-line pressure. Cowen & Co. analyst  John Kernan recently bumped up his price target on TJX to $84 from $78. He noted that the company’s markup and merchandising margin opportunity is being undermined by the consensus. Moreover, there are high chances of freight costs deflating in Fiscal 2024, which will be a boon for TJX. Additionally, Kernan sees several upsides going into the holiday season. “Momentum at the Marmaxx unit, along with TJX’s off-price business model of [selling] on-trend branded goods at a discount to traditional retailers, suggest an attractive channel for cash-strapped shoppers in the holiday quarter,” observed the analyst. Is TJX Stock a Good Buy, According to Analysts? Wall Street expects TJX's stock price to go up around 8.5% over the next year. This is based on 12 Buys and three Hold ratings assigned in the past three months. Applied Materials (AMAT) Leading global semiconductor equipment provider Applied Materials recently reported better-than-expected Q3 results last week despite the downbeat sentiment that has gripped the semiconductor sector. Supply-chain conditions are slowly improving. Being dependent on wafer starts at semiconductor facilities, the company can sell its world-class products in an up-cycle. Also, the majority of Applied Materials’ products serve the more resilient sector of logic and foundry rather than the more volatile memory market. This serves as a buffer for the company against any unexpected decline in the memory market. Where Will Applied Materials Stock be in One Year? Wall Street analysts think AMAT stock can increase by about 12.9% over the next year, hitting $118.75. This is based on 18 Buys and six Holds assigned over the past three months. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Palo Alto, one of the leaders in the cybersecurity space, is now focused on building on its leadership in the Next-Generation firewall space and providing a more comprehensive cloud security platform. BTIG analyst  Gray Powell is upbeat about this vision. “Given the mix-shift to the Next Generation Security (NGS) segment and improved performance in attached services on the traditional firewall business, we think PANW can maintain top-line growth at 20%+ and expand margins longer term,” he believes. What is the Price Target for PANW Stock? The average price target of PANW stock stands at $228.24, indicating 33.8% upside potential based on 32 Buys and four Hold ratings. The Takeaway Several challenges await companies this year and next. Nonetheless, gauging the long-term view, Wall Street is very bullish on these stocks. Disclosure
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