High inflation and fears of an economic slowdown have been a common theme for global stocks this year. However, Chinese stocks had to deal with country-specific risks as well, including the COVID-led disruptions, delisting concerns, and the growing U.S.-China tensions. The easing of COVID-19 restrictions over recent days has revived investors’ hopes. Nonetheless, uncertainty still prevails due to rising COVID-19 cases. Amid this backdrop, we used
TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool to pit Nio (
NYSE:NIO
), Alibaba (
NYSE:BABA
), and Baidu (
NASDAQ:BIDU
) against each other to pick the most attractive Chinese stock.
Nio (NYSE:NIO) Stock
Production disruptions severely hit Nio and other Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers this year. The company has ramped up its production to ensure that it ends the year on a strong note. Earlier this month, Nio reported deliveries of 14,178 vehicles for November, reflecting 30.3% year-over-year growth and about 41% month-over-month increase.
The company aims to deliver between 43,000 and 48,000 vehicles in Q4, reflecting year-over-year growth of 71.8% to 91.7%. The easing of COVID restrictions bodes well for Nio’s growth targets.
Looking ahead, Nio aims to boost its sales and improve its profitability, backed by the launch of several new models and its expansion in Europe. During the Q3 earnings call, the company stated that it aims to launch five new models in the first half of 2023. Recently, NIO’s CEO, William Li, announced that the company would launch two new cars at the NIO Day 2022 event slated to be held on December 24.
What is the Prediction for Nio Stock?
Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Nio stock, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on eight Buys and four Holds. The average Nio stock price target of $16.81 implies nearly 45% upside potential from current levels.
Shares have declined 63% year-to-date.
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) Stock
Regulatory crackdown, the COVID-19 situation in China, and increasing competition has weighed on Alibaba over recent quarters. The e-commerce giant’s revenue grew 3% in the fiscal second quarter (ended September 30, 2022). While Q2 FY23 revenue improved compared to the fiscal first quarter, it lagged analysts’ estimates. Moreover, investors were also concerned about the slowdown in the company’s cloud computing revenue growth to 4%, compared to 10% in Q1 FY23.
Amid a difficult environment, Alibaba continues to drive cost efficiency, which helped it drive a
15% growth in its Fiscal Q2 earnings to RMB 12.92 ($1.82) per ADS. Alibaba expects its businesses to do well once the macro situation starts improving in China.
What do Analysts Say about Alibaba Stock?
Benchmark analyst
Fawne Jiang feels that the weakness in Alibaba’s Fiscal Q2 results and "soft" Q3 outlook reflect the impact of tough macro conditions and COVID mobility constraints on growth, especially on Alibaba's core customer management revenue (CMR). CMR indicates revenue that Alibaba derives from services such as marketing that it offers to merchants on the Taobao and Tmall e-commerce platforms.
While Jiang feels that Alibaba is "not out of the woods in terms of a fundamental turnaround," she is positive about the macro environment in FY24 and expects a recovery in CMR growth with the gradual reopening of China’s economy. Jiang lowered her price target for Alibaba stock to $180 from $206 but maintained a Buy rating.
The Strong Buy consensus rating for Alibaba stock is supported by 15 unanimous Buys. The average BABA stock price target of $133.73 implies 54.1% upside potential.
BABA shares have declined nearly 27% year-to-date.
Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) Stock
Search engine giant Baidu delivered market-beating third-quarter results, fueled by the strength in the company’s AI Cloud revenue and gradual recovery in its online marketing business. Revenue grew 2% year-over-year to RMB 32.5 billion ($4.57 billion), while
adjusted earnings per ADS increased 15% to RMB 16.87 ($2.37). Baidu’s efforts to control costs and shift away from certain lower-margin businesses drove its Q3 profitability.
While Baidu’s ad revenue declined 4% year-over-year, it grew 10% compared to the second quarter. The company’s non-online marketing revenue grew 25%, fueled by AI Could and other AI-powered businesses.
Baidu continues to invest in its AI businesses, including AI Cloud and intelligent driving, to boost its long-term growth. Revenue from AI Cloud increased 24% in Q3 and is a key growth driver for Baidu’s non-advertising revenue. Apollo Go, Baidu’s robotaxi business, which completed over 474,000 rides in Q3, reflects the growing strength of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing business.
What is the Target Price for Baidu?
Susquehanna analyst
Shyam Patil remains optimistic about Baidu despite persistent macro uncertainty. The analyst highlighted the company’s leading position in China’s search market, strength in the feeds market, and its dominant position in AI applications. Patil slashed his price target for Baidu stock to $150 from $195 but maintained a Buy rating.
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Baidu stock based on 12 Buys and six Holds. The average BIDU stock price target of $148.06 suggests 31.5% upside potential.
Baidu stock is down over 24% this year.
Conclusion
Wall Street seems more optimistic about Alibaba than Nio and Baidu and estimates a higher upside potential in BABA stock than the other two Chinese stocks. Despite the slowdown in Alibaba’s key businesses due to macro challenges, analysts seem confident about the company’s long-term potential in high-growth markets, like cloud computing.
Nonetheless, investors should exercise caution and consider all the risks associated with Chinese stocks before making an investment decision.
Disclosure
The NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator is up 23.01 to 11,266.73. The total Pre-Market volume is currently 30,343,199 shares traded.The following are the most active stocks for the pre-market session: ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) is +0.12 at $19.18, with 4,281,374 shares traded. Th
Asia's hedge funds are heading for their worst showing in a dozen years, with long-short stockpickers wrongfooted by volatility in China, while macro strategy funds riding big global shifts in interest rates shine.
The Biden administration is intensifying its crackdown on Chinese firms to curb the country’s technological advancements, mainly the use of advanced chips in military applications. The U.S. added China’s top memory chip maker Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. (YMTC) and over 30 other firms to the entity list, which implies that American companies will have to obtain a license from the Commerce Department before selling any goods or services to the companies in this list.
YMTC was added to the list over concerns that it could direct American technology to already blacklisted Chinese tech behemoths Huawei Technologies Co. and Hikvision. YMTC has rapidly emerged as a key rival to American memory chipmaker Micron Technology (
MU
) and South Korea’s SK Hynix. As per a
Nikkei Asia report in October, Apple (
AAPL
) put on hold its plans to use YMTC’s memory chips in its products due to tighter export controls.
Overall, the export blacklist includes 35 Chinese companies (including artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker Cambricon Technologies and IT giant CETC) and a Japan-based subsidiary of YMTC.
In October, the Commerce Department had placed YMTC and several other Chinese companies in what it called an unverified list. The Department said that it would move these companies to the entity list if it is unable to confirm that the end uses of their products weren’t detrimental to the U.S. The Commerce Department has now removed 27 companies (per
Reuters) from the unverified list after completing site visits in cooperation with the Chinese government.
Escalating U.S.-China Trade Tensions
Amid growing tensions between the U.S. and China, both countries intend to invest billions of dollars to boost the domestic production of advanced chips. In October, the U.S. imposed new export controls to
restrict China’s access to advanced chips. China has officially initiated a trade dispute against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the chip export curbs. It has alleged that the U.S. curbs “threatened the stability of the global industrial supply chains.”
Meanwhile, some American chipmakers are exploring ways to avoid significant loss of sales due to the recently imposed export restrictions. Last month, semiconductor giant Nvidia (
NVDA
) started offering an alternative chip (A800) with a lower bandwidth that meets the newly imposed U.S. export rules. The A800 is an alternative to Nvidia’s A100 chip that was used in servers and AI applications by many Chinese tech giants, including Alibaba Group (
BABA
) and Tencent Holdings (
TCEHY
).
Recently, the WTO ruled against the U.S. tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum imports by former President Donald Trump as they violated international trade laws. The U.S. said that it strongly rejects the WTO panels’ “flawed interpretation and conclusions.” China has urged the U.S. to respect the ruling and work with WTO members to protect the multilateral trading system.
Overall, any further worsening of the U.S.-China relationship could adversely impact companies in the two countries, especially at a time when businesses are already under pressure due to a looming global recession.
Disclosure
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Alibaba (BABA) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Alibaba co-founder and executive vice chairman Joseph Tsai has indicated he plans to sell part of his stake in the company through Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Ankur Banerjee
Investors have hunkered down with their risk-off hat on,
after a central bank bonanza this week (that's seven central
banks on Thursday and the Fed on Wednesday, for those counting)
made it clear that interest rates will go up in 2023 for most
countries as the battle against inflation rages on.
The U.S. accounting watchdog on Thursday said it has gotten full access to inspect and investigate firms in China for the first time ever, removing the risk that around 200 Chinese companies could be kicked off U.S. stock exchanges.
Over the past month, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (
NYSE:BABA
) has seen one of its biggest stock price rallies ever. The well-known reason for the rally is the barrage of good news flowing in from China. The big question now lingering in investors' minds is if the stock is still a Buy. Based on the analysis below, I believe the stock presents a good investment opportunity. With the revival of China, BABA stock should revive too.
China Reopening Will Act as a Catalyst
Last month, beleaguered Chinese stocks got a fresh lease of life,
witnessing their biggest rally in the last two decades. A number of positive news triggered the rally.
Massive countrywide protests throughout China forced the Chinese government to relax the zero-COVID policy and travel restrictions imposed during the pandemic.
Simultaneously, talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have given signs of easing tension between the two nations. With that, the ever-growing concern of the delisting of Chinese stocks from the U.S. stock market is also put to rest.
The much-awaited reopening of the Chinese economy and the final exit from its zero-COVID policy bodes well for all the Chinese stocks listed overseas.
BABA: Strong Fundamentals with Increased Buybacks
Founded in 1999, Alibaba is the biggest Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, technology, and the internet. Despite its gigantic stature, the stock massively suffered over the past two years due to the negative impact of widespread shutdowns caused by the zero-COVID policy in China, the China-U.S. trade war, corporate governance concerns, slowing GDP growth, the regulatory crackdown in the Chinese tech sector, and delisting threat of Chinese stocks from the U.S. exchanges.
No wonder, the stock took a downward slide from its October 2020 high of more than $300
to its low of $58 in October this year. Thanks to the recent good news, the stock has recovered by almost 30% over the past month and is trading around $91.
On November 17, BABA reported mixed Q3 results with upbeat earnings but a revenue miss. Reduced consumer spending resulted from an overall dull economic outlook and COVID-19 lockdowns, further impacting logistics and sales.
Despite a tough environment, the company continued to make impressive share buybacks worth $18 billion under the existing $25 billion share repurchase program. Further, the board announced another $15 billion in share buybacks effective until FY2025. The combined buybacks of $40 billion equate to 16% of the current market capitalization of $240 billion.
The huge buybacks are a clear indication of the company’s confidence in the return to growth, as well as the fact that the shares are undervalued at current levels. The buybacks are further supported by a sturdy balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of $68 billion at the end of September 30, 2022.
Over the years, Alibaba has used its gigantic market share to its advantage. It has diversified across multiple sectors, like its Cloud business, among others. The tech sell-off this year has not favored the stock. Longer term, however, the company should see the fruits of its diversification initiatives.
In terms of valuation, too, Alibaba looks attractive. Trading at a huge 50% discount to its own five-year historical forward P/E average of 24x, BABA's current forward P/E ratio is hovering around 12x.
The discounted valuation potentially presents a great buying opportunity for BABA, given the solid fundamentals and return to growth driven by a revitalized Chinese economy.
Is Alibaba Stock Expected to Rise?
The Wall Street community is clearly optimistic about the stock. Overall, the stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 15 unanimous Buys. Alibaba’s average price target of $133.73 implies 47.1% upside potential from current levels.
Concluding Thoughts: BABA Looks Attractive
There are still concerns over shrinking Chinese exports impacted by weak global macroeconomic sentiment. The complete reopening of the Chinese economy may take a few months. Ultimately, it will happen nonetheless. This should take Chinese stocks and the market leaders like BABA to their pre-historic highs. Likewise, I am bullish on BABA stock and its return to growth thesis.
Disclosure
Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd cannot buy some of the most advanced chip designs after the SoftBank-owned British chip tech firm Arm Ltd determined that U.S. and Britain would not approve licences to export technology to China, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.
E-commerce stocks refer to the shares of companies that operate in the electronic commerce sector. These companies typically operate online retail platforms that allow customers to buy and sell goods and services over the internet. Investing in e-commerce stocks can be a way for
Down 24% year to date, Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) hasn't escaped the impacts of the 2022 bear market. Like many e-commerce companies, it faces global macroeconomic challenges like inflation and possible recession. But China-specific headwinds are another big pr
SoftBank-backed Indian e-commerce firm Snapdeal has decided to pull the plug on its $152 million IPO, the company told Reuters, making it the latest casualty of a meltdown in tech stocks that has soured investor sentiment.
In trading on Thursday, shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Symbol: BABA) crossed above their 200 day moving average of $92.69, changing hands as high as $94.23 per share. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd shares are currently trading up about 5.2% on the day. The chart below shows
Investors in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Symbol: BABA) saw new options become available today, for the January 2023 expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the BABA options chain for the new January 2023 contracts and identified one
Chinese stocks have been in a world of pain well before the S&P 500 (
SPX
) plunged into a bear market in 2022. Indeed, many investors and talking heads have slapped the unenviable title of "uninvestable" on Chinese stocks, given how difficult it is to gauge their inherent risks. Indeed, delisting concerns and other issues based on exogenous events make it hard to value even the "cheapest" Chinese internet ADRs (American Depository Receipts). Despite the added risks of investing in Chinese stocks, many Wall Street analysts continue to view names like Alibaba (
NASDAQ:BABA
), JD.com (
NASDAQ:JD
), and Pinduoduo (
NASDAQ:PDD
) favorably.
There's no doubt that U.S. investors have been burned by Chinese names in recent years. With swollen regulatory risk discounts and considerable growth to be had over the long run, China's top internet plays may still be worth considering while they're miles away from their peaks.
Let's check in on three Strong-Buy-rated Chinese tech titans that Wall Street expects great things from in 2023.
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba is probably the first firm that comes to mind to American investors looking for Chinese tech exposure. It's been a slow, painful descent for one of China's most FAANG-like stocks. After plunging by around 80% from peak to trough, BABA stock has shown signs of life in recent weeks,
rallying by around 52% off the October trough.
Whether the recent rally lasts remains to be seen. Regardless, it's hard for value-conscious investors to overlook the
absurdly-low 1.9 times price-to-sales (P/S) multiple.
At these depths, even the slightest positive news could have a significant impact on the stock. With Chinese stocks bouncing due to easing COVID-19 restrictions, Alibaba and the broader basket may, once again, be unignorable as consumer spending looks to heal. Arguably, Alibaba has the most to gain as China reopens its economy and the worst recession fears come to pass.
What is the Price Target for BABA Stock?
Wall Street is sticking with its "Strong Buy" rating on Alibaba stock, with 15 unanimous Buy recommendations. The average BABA stock price target of $133.73 implies a solid 51.4% gain from here.
JD.com (JD)
JD.com is an e-commerce player that rallied sharply in recent weeks after enduring a nearly two-year-long 64% plunge. Driven by easing COVID-19 restrictions and a huge third-quarter beat that saw per-share earnings crush estimates (
$0.90 EPS vs. $0.70 consensus), JD stock now seems to have the most technical strength behind it.
At just 0.6 times sales, JD stock has some low expectations in mind ahead of what's likely to be a global recession. As China looks to loosen its strict zero-COVID policy, JD could be one of the bigger beneficiaries.
In a rising-rate world, U.S. investors can appreciate JD's latest profitability surge. The company is well-positioned to continue driving margins higher as it looks to take a page out of the playbook of an early Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
).
What is the Price Target for JD Stock?
Wall Street loves JD stock, with a "Strong Buy" consensus rating. The average JD stock price target of $77.69 implies 32.92% gains from current levels.
Pinduoduo (PDD)
Pinduoduo is a Chinese e-commerce play that's suffered the biggest hit to the chin amid China's horrific tech sell-off. From peak to trough, shares shed more than 83% of their value. Since bottoming earlier this year, though, PDD stock has been really heating up, rewarding dip-buyers who gave the digital retail play the benefit of the doubt. Shares are now up around 265% from their 2022 lows.
Indeed, Pinduoduo is the spiciest Chinese internet stock, but one that could deliver the biggest gains in a turnaround scenario. The recent third-quarter beat was a blowout (
$1.23 EPS vs. $0.69 consensus). As the company continues to impress despite the dire macro conditions, growth-savvy investors willing to stomach the risks may be enticed to get back into the name.
At 6.4 times sales and 30 times trailing earnings, PDD stock is one of the pricier Chinese e-commerce firms. After six straight sizeable bottom-line beats, though, I view the name as compelling.
What is the Price Target for PDD Stock?
Wall Street continues to pound the table on Pinduoduo. The average PDD stock price target of $99.51 implies 15.95% gains from here.
Conclusion: Wall Street is Most Bullish on BABA
Indeed, recent momentum in Chinese stocks may reignite enthusiasm. A sustained rally into 2023 may even cause pundits to shed their "uninvestable" status. Of the three names in this piece, Wall Street expects the biggest gains from Alibaba stock.
Disclosure
U.S. stock indexes were set to open lower on Wednesday after warnings of a looming recession from major Wall Street bankers offset optimism around China relaxing its strict zero-COVID rules.
U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday after warnings of a looming recession from major Wall Street bankers offset optimism around the easing of China's strict zero-COVID rules.
Investors in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Symbol: BABA) saw new options become available today, for the February 2023 expiration. One of the key inputs that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 73 days until expiration the newly avail