Nasdaq NVDA Nvidia

Last Minute Thought: Buy or Sell Nvidia Before Earnings?

4 years 6 months ago

Nvidia (NVDA) stock has been a winner in the pandemic era. The semiconductor giant represents a play on multiple trends including AI, cloud, gaming and AV/ADAS, and investors have bought into the story, sending shares up by 110% over the past 12 months.

The company is set to release the January quarter results today after the bell, and Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann expects Nvidia to post a “beat and raise.”

“We see the January quarter being driven by strength in Gaming, Professional Visualization, and a continued recovery in Automotive offset by a sequential decline in Data Center,” the 5-star analyst said. “While the outlook will likely see continued adoption of Ampere and the recently announced Ampere featured laptops, strength in AI and cloud computing verticals, better than expected Gaming, and Automotive growth.”

Mosesmann expects sales in the longer 14-week quarter to be above his and the Street’s forecast for low single-digit sequential growth, with EPS also coming in higher than his $2.80 forecast and the consensus estimate of $2.81.

Nvidia’s main breadwinner, Gaming, should rise mid-single-digits quarter-over-quarter, driven by “continued ramp of the RTX 30 series, products, work-from-home demand dynamics, and game console SoCs.”

Of the company’s fast-growing division, Data Center, the analyst anticipates a cooling off period with a pause to its rally and a sequential low single-digits decline. The outlook for the segment is a key area to watch on the earnings call, where Mosesmann will be keen to learn about the likely duration of supply chain shortages, which the analyst believes will continue beyond F2Q21, and “controls on cryptocurrency mining using GPUs.”

Additionally, over the next several quarters, the data processing unit will continue to be a focal point and is noted as another tailwind. All in all, Mosesmann makes no bones about his long-term prospects for the GPU heavyweight.

“We see NVDA as the best managed and strategically positioned semiconductor company,” the analyst summed up.

Accordingly, Mosesmann reiterated a Buy on NVDA shares and sticks to a $650 price target, which implies a 14% upside from current levels. (To watch Mosesmann’s track record, click here)

Most of Mosesmann’s colleagues back his stance. With 12 Buys vs. 2 Holds, the stock qualifies with a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target is just under Mosesmann’s, and at $629.79 represents upside of 11% over the next 12 months. (See NVDA stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for tech stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

TipRanks

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NVIDIA Stock Looks a Little Pricey Heading Into Earnings, Says Analyst

4 years 6 months ago

Game time is almost here for NVIDIA (NVDA), which is set to report its fourth-quarter results for fiscal 2021 after the closing bell on Tuesday, February 23.

NVIDIA's previous results gave investors good reason for optimism. Revenue spiked 57% year-over-year, thanks to a standout performance from the data center segment, which soared 162%.

Heading into the print, Deutsche Bank's Ross Seymore expects a “solid” quarter and guide. The 5-star analyst anticipates F4Q earnings of $2.87 per share on sales of $4.9 billion, while consensus estimate is calling for $2.81 and $4.82 billion, respectively.

As ever with Nvidia, key segments to keep an eye on are Data Center and Gaming.

“Within the former,” Seymore says, “Key questions will be on sequential Computing strength vs. Networking weakness. Within Gaming we will look to gauge how much seasonality can be offset by catching up on supply, as well as judging the duration of both the ‘catchup’ period.”

Looking ahead to F1Q22, Seymore thinks Nvidia will guide for a 46% year-over-year top-line uptick, which will result in revenue of $4.5 billion, more or less what the Street is expecting.

However, the figure represents an 8% quarter-over-quarter drop, which the the analyst attributes to the “return to a normal 13-week quarter, as well as a combination of seasonality (better than normal) and shortages (worse than normal).”

With plenty of secular tailwinds - AI, cloud, gaming and AV/ADAS - pushing it forward and “likely to persist for the foreseeable future,” the analyst counts Nvidia as “one of the absolute premier growth stories in the semi sector.”

Yet, with NVIDIA's shares up 110% over the past 12 months, much of the “goodness” is already baked into the share price, according Seymore. The analyst also believes that “an inevitable slowing in growth, appears to be insufficiently discounted.”

Therefore, Seymore remains on the sidelines with a Hold rating, although as compensation, he lifted the price target from $515 to $550. Nonetheless, the new figure implies possible downside of 4% from current levels. (To watch Seymore’s track record, click here)

According to the rest of the Street, there’s room for ~10% uptick, given the $629.79 average price target. Of the 14 reviews on record, most are Buyers – 12, in fact – and with 2 additional Holds, the stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating. (See NVDA stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for tech stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

TipRanks

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