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The Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF (
BATS:FYLD
) is an appealing ETF investing in developed international markets, yielding 6%. I’m bullish on this $250 million fund from Cambria because of its attractive dividend yield, diversified portfolio, and inexpensive holdings.
What Is the FYLD ETF’s Strategy?
We recently
wrote about the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (
BATS:SYLD
), which has posted an impressive performance in recent years and focuses on shareholder yield. FYLD is similarly focused on shareholder yield but invests in international, developed market equities instead of in U.S. equities like SYLD.
According to Cambria, FYLD “focuses on high-cash distribution companies internationally that are returning their cash to investors through three attributes - dividends, buybacks, and debt paydown - collectively known as shareholder yield.”
Shareholder yield is calculated by adding these three attributes (dividends, net share repurchases, and net debt reduction) and dividing them by a company’s market capitalization.
Investing in international stocks with high shareholder yields creates a portfolio with a valuation that is significantly lower than that of FYLD’s benchmark, the MSCI EAFE Index, which “represent(s) the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada.”
As of the end of the most recent quarter, the price-to-earnings ratio for FYLD’s portfolio was just a paltry 7.6, versus a considerably higher price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 for the MSCI EAFE Index as a whole. Investors should note that both of these valuations are cheaper than U.S. stocks. For instance, the S&P 500 (
SPX
) currently has a price-to-earnings multiple of 22.4.
FYLD’s holdings also trade at a slight discount to book value, whereas the MSCI EAFE Index trades for an average price-to-book ratio of 1.7.
Additionally, Cambria says another advantage of the fund is that focusing on stocks with favorable shareholder yields, as opposed to simply investing in
stocks with high dividend yields, “may provide more attractive growth characteristics” and healthier balance sheets.
Investment Process
To arrive at this portfolio of international stocks with inexpensive valuations and high shareholder yields, FYLD uses a fairly exhaustive investment process.
The fund's portfolio management team begins by looking through a universe of all foreign-developed market stocks with market caps of over $200 million. They then select the top 20% of these stocks with the highest shareholder yields and also evaluate these stocks based on traditional valuation metrics like price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and price-to-sales. They exclude certain stocks based on quality or leverage concerns.
Next, the portfolio management team selects the top 100 stocks from this list with the most attractive combination of shareholder yield and valuation.
This screening process begins again each quarter, and the fund is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
FYLD's Holdings
What type of portfolio does this investment process create for FYLD? The well-diversified fund owns 101 stocks, and its top 10 holdings comprise just a minuscule 15.0% of assets.
Below, you’ll find an overview of
FYLD’s top 10 holdings created using TipRanks’ holdings tool.
The fund invests in all types of international stocks, with a noticeable bias toward sectors that typically feature cheaper valuations, including energy, basic materials, and financials.
U.S. investors will likely be familiar with some of the fund’s energy positions, such as its top holding, Canada’s Imperial Oil (
NYSE:IMO
), plus energy supermajors like the UK’s BP (
NYSE:BP
) and France’s TotalEnergies (
NYSE:TTE
), although TTE is not a top 10 holding. Miners are also well-represented through the likes of the Rio Tinto (
NYSE:RIO
) and Glencore (
OTC:GLCNF
).
As of the end of the most recent quarter, FYLD’s largest exposure was to financials, with a weighting of 23.9%, followed by energy (20.9%), industrials (18.0%), and materials (16.9%).
FYLD is also diversified across geographies, with Japan accounting for the fund’s largest exposure with a weighting of 22.7%. Some other markets it's invested in include Canada (14.0%), the U.K. (11.2%), France (9.0%), Australia (7.2%), and Hong Kong (7.0%).
Significant Dividend Yield
FYLD stands out for its
6% dividend yield. This yield is more than four times higher than that of the S&P 500, which currently yields just 1.4%. It is also higher than that of popular international dividend ETFs like the Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (
NASDAQ:VYMI
) and the Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (
NYSEARCA:SCHY
), which
yield 4.6% and
4.0%, respectively.
A Mixed Performance Over the Years
FYLD’s performance has been a mixed bag. On the negative side, it has underperformed the S&P 500 in recent years. On the positive side, it has outperformed its international developed markets benchmark over the past three and five years. As of the end of the most recent quarter, FYLD’s annualized three-year return of 8.2% easily trumped the MSCI EAFE’s annualized return of 4.5% over the same time frame. Over a five-year time horizon, FYLD’s annualized return of 9.3% bested the benchmark’s return of 8.7%.
This underperformance versus simply investing in the S&P 500 markets stings for investors, but on the other hand, it isn't a bad idea for U.S. investors to diversify by gaining exposure to international stocks, and FYLD has proven to be a good way to do this with its benchmark-topping performance. Furthermore, past performance is no guarantee of future results, so if international stocks begin to catch up with the performance of their U.S. peers at some point in the future, FYLD would be a good place to be invested.
What's FYLD's Expense Ratio?
FYLD’s expense ratio of 0.59% is on the higher end, but it's not out of line for an actively-managed ETF or an ETF investing internationally, which are typically more expensive than run-of-the-mill index ETFs that invest domestically.
This expense ratio means an investor will pay $59 in fees annually on a $10,000 investment in the fund. Assuming that the fund returns 5% per year going forward and maintains its 0.59% expense ratio, this investor would pay $329 in fees on their initial $10,000 investment over five years.
The Takeaway: A Strong International ETF Option
The main downside of FYLD is that its performance hasn’t set the world on fire. However, the underperformance against the S&P 500 is outside of FYLD’s control, as it invests internationally, and international markets have struggled to beat the U.S. market over the years. Still, the fund has beaten its benchmark of international, developed markets stocks over the past three and five years, so it looks like one of the better ways to diversify by investing in developed international markets.
All things considered, I’m bullish on this ETF as a way to gain international exposure based on its diversified portfolio of cheap stocks with high shareholder yields across a wide range of geographies and industries and its attractive 6% dividend yield.
Disclosure
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Caterpillar stock (
NYSE:CAT
) can keep rising despite fears of a possible slowdown in growth. The heavy machinery, construction, and mining equipment giant had a phenomenal 2023, with the stock hitting new all-time highs once its
full-year results came out. Following a year of impressive sales and earnings growth, 2024 is anticipated to be a period of consolidation for the company. However, this doesn't rule out the possibility of further share price gains. For this reason, I remain bullish on CAT stock.
FY2023: The Best Year in Caterpillar's History
Before I discuss why Caterpillar stock may be poised for further upside, let me start by adding some color regarding the company's recent performance. Fiscal 2023 wasn't just a good year for the company but arguably the best in its history, as Caterpillar excelled across every aspect of the business.
In particular, last year witnessed Caterpillar achieving unprecedented milestones, including record-breaking sales, margins, profits, and capital returns to shareholders. All this was accomplished while navigating one of the most challenging macroeconomic environments in recent history.
To sum it up, for FY2023, the company posted:
Record
total sales of $67.1 billion, up 3% year-over-year, including Services revenues of $23 billion, also a record, up 5% year-over-year.
A record gross profit margin of 31.7%, up from 26.2% in fiscal 2022.
A record adjusted operating profit margin of 20.5%, a 510 basis point increase over the prior year.
Record adjusted EPS of $21.21, a 53% increase over 2022.
Record free cash flow of about $10 billion.
Record capital returns to shareholders of about $7.5 billion.
Seeing such jaw-dropping numbers from a company that is typically subject to cyclical trends is quite remarkable, especially considering the heightened macro-related volatility experienced in 2023.
The truth, however, is that Caterpillar is enjoying robust industry tailwinds. The construction equipment and heavy machinery industry is benefiting significantly due to record infrastructure investment, mainly backed by unprecedented government spending. In turn, this is driven by the 2021-approved $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which mainly concerns infrastructure projects. Being the largest player in the industry, Caterpillar appears to be the main beneficiary of this trend.
Can Caterpillar's Momentum Last in 2024?
The first question you have as an investor seeing such spikes across Caterpillar's financials is whether this momentum can be sustained. Based on management's outlook for the year, it appears that extraordinary demand for Caterpillar's machinery and equipment is set to be sustained, fueled by continued spending on infrastructure. However, it also seems that headwinds are set to offset some of Caterpillar's strengths.
Caterpillar's management laid out all potential factors in its most recent earnings call, which I have summed up for your convenience.
In particular, on the one hand, management expects the following tailwinds:
North America's construction industries to remain healthy, driven by strong government infrastructure spending,
Latin America to see increased construction activity due to improved financial conditions,
The Middle East to contribute strongly to machinery demand,
The overall trend of the energy transition to support long-term growth opportunities,
Reciprocating engines and services in oil and gas to show a slight increase,
High-speed marine transportation sector to experience a slight increase as well.
On the other hand, these catalysts are likely to be offset by some road bumps. These include:
Economic softening in Asia Pacific,
China's above-10-ton excavator industry remaining at a low level,
Economic uncertainty in Europe,
Anticipated decrease in machine volume, especially in off-highway and articulated trucks,
Lower order rates, as customers exercise capital discipline,
Softening industrial demand in the Energy & Transportation division of the company,
Short-term moderation in well servicing in North America's oil and gas sector.
As a result, while the main catalyst driving Caterpillar's revenues and earnings to such great levels isn't going away (infrastructure spending), any potential favorable developments might be counterbalanced by certain headwinds.
Thus, consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 2024 point toward $67.4 billion and $21.01, implying a change of 0.5% and -0.6%, respectively. Essentially, Wall Street anticipates flat numbers year-over-year.
Is a Stagnation in Sales and Earnings Growth Bad for the Stock?
While Caterpillar's sales and earnings growth is expected to slow down/stagnate this year, this is not necessarily bad for the stock. Sure, top and bottom-line growth are always solid catalysts for a stock to rise. But it's not further growth that could fuel the upside in this case. Rather, it's the stock's attractive valuation.
Caterpillar's stock, as strange as it may sound, hasn't surged to the extent of becoming overvalued. While
the stock rallied by 23.4% in the previous calendar year, its adjusted EPS surged by a far more substantial 53% during the same period.
Even in the face of Caterpillar's robust performance in the year-to-date rally of 2024, the stock is still trading at a reasonable 15 times this year's anticipated earnings. One could argue that this is a hefty multiple for a cyclical company during a peak earnings cycle.
However, strong industry catalysts, including the outlook that strong infrastructure investments will last for several years, indicate the potential for a mega-cycle. Thus, earnings are poised to remain at or near record levels over the medium term. Coupled with robust capital returns, I believe that the stock is primed for further upside.
Is CAT Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Regarding Wall Street’s view on the stock, Caterpillar has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on seven Buys, nine Holds, and two Sells assigned in the past three months. At $314.76, the
average Caterpillar stock forecast implies 0.6% downside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell CAT stock, the most accurate analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse, with an average return of 27.51% per rating and a 79% success rate.
The Takeaway
In wrapping up, Caterpillar had a stellar 2023, achieving record-breaking sales and profits despite a rather tough macro environment. Moving into 2024, the company might face some headwinds in some markets, but with infrastructure spending set to remain robust, its earnings should remain near record levels.
Even if growth takes a breather, the stock's current valuation seems fair. So, while we might not see the stock repeat its previous rally, I'm staying optimistic about its future returns.
Disclosure
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