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At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed the latest batch of the 32 most recent 13F filings for the 12/31/2023 reporting period, and noticed that Visa Inc (Symbol: V) was held by 22 of these funds. When hedge fund managers appear to be thinking alike, we find it is a good idea to t
Our theme of Housing Stocks, which includes the stocks of home improvement players, building supply companies, and home builders has been a mixed performer this year, remaining roughly flat since early January. This compares to the S&P 500, which has gained about 5% over
Boeing (NYSE: BA) recently reported its Q4 results, with top and bottom lines well above street estimates. Although there are near-term headwinds for the company stemming from the ongoing 737 MAX 9 issues, we believe BA stock has ample room for growth. The company reported revenu
Meta Platforms stock (NASDAQ: META) has rallied 290% since the beginning of 2023, while the S&P500 gained 30% over this period. The stock is currently trading around $470 per share, which is 3% below its fair value of $485 – Trefis’ estimate for Meta Platforms&rsq
Arabica coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange have made higher lows and higher highs since reaching a $1.4205 per pound bottom in early 2023. The low came after the coffee futures traded to the highest price since 2011 in 2022 at $2.6045.
Wall Street expects healthy upside from both of these agricultural equipment stocks in the next year, and they offer healthy dividend yields to shareholders, too.
Palantir made adj free cash flow (FCF) of $730 million in 2023, or 33% of sales, and a 50% FCF margin in Q4. As a result, PLTR stock could be worth $30 p/sh. Short-put income plays are attractive here.
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The recent January jobs number showed a huge surprise to the upside. Wall Street had expected to see approximately 185,000 new non-farm payroll jobs – but the number came in at 335,000, beating that estimate by 150,000, or a whopping 81%.
A hiring expansion of that size is sure to have ripple effects in the economy. Questions will be raised – are these new full-time jobs? Are these single workers holding multiple part-time jobs? Will wages keep up with inflation? But some questions will slide under the radar – How will HR departments deal with this rising tide?
Personnel management is a vital function for any business, and BTIG analyst Matt VanVliet has taken up the issue. In his recent coverage of HR stocks, VanVliet says, “Easy to use and accurate payroll is the bare minimum, but the modern enterprise must now efficiently recruit and onboard employees in a highly competitive, tight labor market, provide training and solid benefits to ensure retention, and have better visibility into staffing, scheduling, and employee experience to effectively manage the business.”
“This is creating elevated demand for cloud-based HCM solutions, with the segment expected to grow ~12.5% per annum in the US through 2026 to $33.1bn in annual spend, according to Gartner. This leaves an opportunity for many of the names in our coverage to grow into and expand their average revenue per employee as these companies become more creative in their attempts to solve the everyday needs and headaches of HR,” VanVliet added.
Against this backdrop, the BTIG analyst sees some sound opportunity brewing in 2 HR stocks in particular. Let’s check in with VanVliet’s comments on them, and use the
TipRanks platform to look up the overall Wall Street take on each as well.
Paylocity
(
PCTY
)
We’ll start with Paylocity, a company founded in 1997 and still working out of its original home state of Illinois. The firm caters primarily to small- and medium-sized businesses, and offers cloud-based software packages to meet a full range of HR service needs, including payroll, time and workflow management, regulatory compliance, talent searching and recruiting, and benefits management. Paylocity has found widespread acceptance, and boasts a client base across a wide range of industries, from manufacturing and technology to religious and nonprofit organizations to healthcare and financial services.
Like many business software companies, Paylocity operates through the subscription-based software-as-a-service model. The company makes its solutions available through its HCM (human capital management) systems; enterprise customers can adjust the packages to meet their own particular needs, backed up by Paylocity’s on-demand support services and its ability to custom-design software package pricing to meet its customers’ demands.
Paylocity released its latest set of earnings data last week, for the fiscal second quarter of 2024 (December quarter). The company beat the forecasts on both revenue and earnings. The top line came to $326.4 million, for a 19.6% year-over-year gain, and was $2.03 million ahead of the estimates. At the bottom line, the adj. EPS of $1.49 beat the Street’s forecast of $1.28.
Nevertheless, despite those solid numbers, PCTY shares fell after the earnings release. Investors were seemingly disappointed with the company’s forward guidance. Total revenue for FQ3 is anticipated in the range between $395.0 million to $399.0 million, amounting to roughly a 17% improvement but falling shy of the analysts’ expectation of $401 million.
For BTIG’s VanVliet, however, this stock simply presents a solid player with a firm base in its industry. He writes of the company, “Paylocity stands as a leader in the HCM space as it successfully catered to the needs of companies in a sudden remote environment during the pandemic and customers haven't looked back from all the time and capabilities Paylocity has been able to provide. Paylocity has a diverse revenue base where no customer accounts for 1% or more of revenue which we believe is critical for companies that are operating in an uncertain macro environment. Paylocity differentiates itself with its keen focus on innovation that provides capabilities to foster a sense of community and a knowledgeable salesforce that is able to identify the needs of its customers.”
Along with these comments, the analyst puts a Buy rating on PCTY shares, with a $200 price target that suggests a 20% one-year upside potential for the stock. (To watch VanVliet’s track record,
click here)
The 18 recent analyst reviews on Paylocity stock include 13 Buys and 5 Holds, giving the shares their Moderate Buy consensus rating. The stock is currently selling for $166.13, and its $193.25 average target price implies a 16% increase in the next 12 months. (See
Paylocity’s stock forecast
)
Paycor HCM
(
PYCR
)
Next up is Paycor, another HCM provider operating in America’s business landscape. Paycor, which is based in Cincinnati, Ohio, can boast some recognizable names in its customer base, including the Wendy’s burger chain, Two Men and a Truck movers, and the Detroit Zoo. The company offers its customers a unified HR software platform with the features that businesses need: tools for talent development, for data analytics, and for easy integration with third-party applications – as well as the ability to customize the platform for specific customer and industry needs.
Some numbers will sum up both Paycor’s industry position and the scale of its success. The company has more than 30 years in the business, and provides its platform to more than 40,000 business clients around the country. Paycor’s HR solutions support more than 2.5 million users across all 50 states.
The company has based its business on making it easier for enterprise clients to take a holistic view of workforce management, viewing employees, contractors, seasonal workers, and even volunteers as a unified whole. Paycor’s solutions for its customers also include talent acquisition, benefits management, and payroll software. All of this has provided the company with a solid base.
The company also recently released its fiscal second quarter of 2024 (December quarter) report which showed strong results. The $159.5 million in total top line revenue was up 20% from the year-ago period, and came in $3.71 million better than had been expected. The company earnings, by non-GAAP measures, came in at 11 cents per share, beating the forecast by 2 cents per share.
We’ll check in again with analyst VanVliet, who is impressed by Paycor’s ability
to develop recurring revenue and its proven history of highly focused sales activities. VanVliet writes, “Paycor has one of the highest potential recurring revenue sources per employee given their robust suite with a current identified total potential PEPM of $51. While many HR-focused cloud-based companies target a specific area to differentiate themselves, we believe Paycor's differentiation lays in its focus on talent management and vertically focused offerings that appeal to specific client bases. We view specific solutions as providing an environment where its focused sales force in specific markets is able to obtain a high win rate because of a strong priority for innovation and tailored solutions.”
Looking ahead, the analyst puts a Buy rating on this stock, and his $30 price target points toward a one-year gain of 30% in the offing.
This is another stock with a Moderate Buy consensus rating from the Street, with the 12 recent analyst reviews breaking down to 4 Buys and 8 Holds. The shares have a $27.56 average price target, which implies they will gain ~37.5% over the one-year timeframe. (See
Paycor’s stock forecast
)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’
Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
As a Palantir (
NYSE:PLTR
) shareholder, I couldn't be happier with
its ~35% post-earnings surge. The AI-driven data analytics and intelligence software company impressed investors, highlighting strong traction in bootcamps, growing AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption, and improving profits. Management expects continued acceleration in its Commercial division. In the meantime, Palantir is gradually turning into a
free cash flow powerhouse.
That said, while I will remain invested in Palantir for its long-term prospects, I have now adopted a neutral stance following the stock's massive gains.
Bootcamps Driving Explosive Commercial Growth
One of the highlights of Palantir's Q4 report was how the company was able to drive explosive growth in its Commercial division. Just to break it down a bit, Palantir's business is split into two parts: Government (bringing in 53% of revenues) and Commercial (raking in the other 47%). Now, while the Government side is still growing rather rapidly, posting 11% growth in Q4, the real excitement is brewing in Palantir's Commercial division.
Indeed, Palantir's Commercial division far outperformed its Government business, growing revenues by 32% year-over-year. This was driven by a massive 55% increase in Palantir's customer count to 221 firms. The rapid client success here can be attributed to Palantir's implementation of a highly demonstrative customer acquisition strategy- bootcamps.
What Are Bootcamps All About?
Palantir's bootcamps serve as intensive, hands-on workshops designed to showcase the capabilities of their products, particularly Palantir's AIP.
Palantir's strategy here literally involves cold-approaching CEOs and CTOs, urging them to put their best AI teams to the test. In Palantir's words, such an approach usually sounds like this:
Take everything you've done in AI, put your best people on it, and we'll run your data at a 10-hour bootcamp. Compare your results to our operationally-relevant, commercially-valuable outcomes. Our 10 hours versus your 10 months. Any products, vendors, or hyperscalers you choose, we'll be there.
Q4 Earnings Call
Sure enough, many executives have shown interest in trying out Palantir's platform, especially given the buzz Palantir has gathered in the tech space. The demand for these immersive "workshops" has surged so that Palantir has not only met but surpassed previous expectations. Palantir has conducted an impressive 560 sessions since October, a feat that already exceeds their initial goal of 500 within the span of a year.
The Effect of Bootcamps on Revenue Growth
Palantir's bootcamp strategy has played a crucial role in driving revenue growth within the Commercial division and company-wide. In fact, Palantir's management highlighted that the company has secured significant deals through this approach. Witnessing firsthand the tangible results that Palantir can deliver for businesses, other business executives are compelled to embrace this transformative technology, recognizing it as an opportunity they cannot afford to overlook.
Just to name a few, Palantir signed deals:
Exceeding $25 million each, with
one of the largest car rental companies, one of the largest telecommunication companies, and one of the largest pharmaceutical and biotechnology corporations in the world.
Exceeding $10 million each, with
an American consumer packaged goods holding company, an American automotive seat and electrical systems manufacturer, a comprehensive health network in the Midwest, and a large-scale battery manufacturer.
Exceeding $5 million each, with
an American bank holding company, a horse racing regulatory organization, one of the world's largest equipment rental companies, and one of the largest independent non-profit cooperatives in the QSR space.
And these are just a few of the examples.
The bar chart below from Palantir's Q4 presentation clearly illustrates the success of bootcamps in driving commercial customer count. Specifically, on a trailing-12-month (TTM) basis, Palantir's Commercial customer count grew by 22% quarter-over-quarter. This implies a fantastic acceleration compared to the equivalent figures of 8%, 4%, and 12% achieved in Q1, Q2, and Q3, respectively.
Source: Palantir Q4 Presentation
Given such impressive momentum in Palantir's Commercial customer count, it's pretty clear that Wall Street is likely pricing a scenario of accelerating revenue growth in the coming quarters. Palantir's management itself has substantiated this expectation by providing guidance for U.S. Commercial revenue surpassing $640 million in FY2024, indicating a growth rate of at least 40%. This further reinforces the optimism surrounding the company's trajectory.
Palantir: Generating Free Cash Flow, but Valuation Concerns Emerge
With strong revenue growth of 20% to $608 million across Government and Commercial in Q4, Palantir is gradually enjoying improving unit economics and turning into a free cash flow machine.
To add some color regarding Palantir's profitability overall, the company's adjusted operating margin jumped to 34% in Q4, up from 22% in the previous year. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of expanding adjusted operating margins and the fifth straight quarter of positive GAAP net income.
GAAP net income landed at $93 million, representing a 15% margin. Yes, Palantir is now very profitable, even on a GAAP basis, and margins have only started expanding. Sure, this $93 million includes $44.5 million interest income from its $3.7 billion cash position, but profits are profits, especially given that this is on a GAAP basis.
But let me go back to free cash flow, which came in at $305 million on an adjusted basis, representing a 50% margin. Note that this figure includes $132.6 million in stock-based compensation (SBC) expenses and thus should be taken with a grain of salt. That said:
a) Even excluding SBC, it represents a massive free cash flow margin of 25%+.
b) It shows the extreme potential for Palantir's free cash flow to grow as its overall margins expand.
c) Total SBC actually declined year-over-year in FY2023, which is certainly encouraging.
Source: Palantir Q4 Earnings Release
Management's guidance, in fact, indicates this potential, as it expects adjusted free cash flow to come in between $800 million and $1 billion. I believe this estimate is highly conservative, given the undeniably incredible momentum Palantir finished FY2023 with and current margins, which are poised to keep expanding from here.
In any case, even these numbers showcase how fast Palantir is turning into a free cash flow powerhouse. For context, two years ago, in FY2022, adjusted free cash flow was only $203 million.
Has Palantir Stock Gotten Too Pricey?
Despite Palantir's operational excellence, it's hard to ignore that shares might have become too pricey. At 51 times the high end of management's adjusted free cash flow guidance range for this year, no further proof is needed to say that Palantir is trading at a massive premium.
While exponential growth in the medium term could eventually justify paying this multiple today, you should expect significant volatility in the stock price. Because of the now notably thinner margin of safety compared to prior quarters, I have changed my stance on the stock from bullish to neutral.
Is PLTR Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
The current sentiment on Wall Street appears somewhat more reserved following the stock's massive gains. According to Wall Street, Palantir Technologies features a Hold consensus rating based on three Buys, five Holds, and five Sells. in the past three months. At $18.20, the average
PLTR stock price target suggests 25.35% downside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell PLTR stock, the most profitable analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Mariana Perez from Bank of America Securities, with an average return of 70.89% per rating and a 100% success rate. Click on the image below to learn more.
The Takeaway
Palantir's Q4 performance, powered by its impactful boot camps and growing demand for its product, has propelled the stock to impressive gains. As a shareholder, I couldn't be happier with the recent gains.
Based on management's guidance, the Commercial division's phenomenal revenue growth is set to accelerate even further. In the meantime, given the company's high-margin business model, Palantir's free cash flow generation shows immense potential. I will continue to hold the stock for these reasons and the fact that I see Palantir dominating the AI-powered decision-making software space.
However, despite these positive indicators, the stock's pricey valuation raises concerns. As a shareholder, I remain optimistic about Palantir's long-term potential, but considering the recent surge, I have shifted to a neutral stance, lowered my expectations, and prepared for increased volatility ahead.
Disclosure
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