Investors in Netflix Inc (Symbol: NFLX) saw new options begin trading today, for the March 10th expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the NFLX options chain for the new March 10th contracts and identified one put and one call cont
The good news is that Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) added nearly 7.7 million paying customers during the fourth quarter of last year, handily topping expectations. The bad news is that net subscriber growth came at a price.
In 1997, Reed Hastings co-founded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). Twenty-six years later, he is stepping down. Under his tenure, anyone who invested $10,000 in Netflix stock at its initial public offering now has nearly $3 million.
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Warren Buffett has developed a reputation for finding bargains throughout his career. Stocks such as Apple and Coca-Cola have brought him massive returns over the years.
Shares of streaming giant Netflix (
NASDAQ:NFLX
) gained 8.46% last Friday following a so-so
Q4 earnings report. NFLX missed analysts' earnings estimates but met revenue expectations. Nevertheless, the growing competition continues to dilute its market share, evidenced by the deceleration in its bottom-line growth across its most profitable regions. Similarly, the race to develop the most attractive content library is as hot as ever, which continues to chomp away at the company's cash reserves. Therefore, we are bearish on NFLX stock at this time.
Netflix experienced a startling decline in its market value near the end of 2021.
The stock is down a remarkable 47% from its high as its investors plan for an uncertain future fraught with competition. Growth rates have normalized post-pandemic, and its operating metrics will continue to fluctuate over the next several quarters.
Perhaps the greatest challenge for the firm going forward is its capital-intensive business model. It's incredibly challenging for Netflix to maintain its expansive content cycle amid the growing competition and its worrying liquidity position.
Despite the headwinds and shaky outlook ahead, NFLX stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 31.9x, roughly 85% higher than the industry median. Given the lack of a huge competitive advantage, the stock is still trading at a nosebleed valuation.
Netflix's Unimpressive Q4 Earnings
Although Netflix missed analysts' expectations for the fourth quarter, its management seemed undeterred, praising the firm's performance. Netflix was upbeat about how the company's
revenue, operating profit, and membership growth exceeded its estimates by a relatively healthy margin. However, that says little about the company's fourth-quarter showing.
Revenues grew by just 2% from the same period last year, while operating profit margins slipped to 7%. Per-share profits were down, too, plummeting by 91%. On a more positive note, free cash flows (FCF) came in at a spectacular $332 million, significantly higher than the negative $569 million from the same period last year.
For the full year, revenue growth came in at 6% while its operating profit margin shrunk 310 basis points, and per-share earnings fell 11%. Even though cash continues to flow positively, investors have reason to remain cautiously pessimistic currently.
It appears that Netflix is struggling to make substantial gains in its most profitable regions, such as the United States and Canada (UCAN). Despite the release of the new premium content at the end of the year, Netflix reported a small drop in paid subscribers in the UCAN region. This poor performance spells trouble for future growth plans and affects the overall profitability of the platform. Consequently, Netflix will need to rethink its strategy to expand its presence and recapture its share in these vital regions.
Netflix has undeniably achieved great success by marketing its high-quality original content worldwide in the past few years. However, to stay competitive, its massive debt load will continue to be a thorn in its side. The company faces a tall order with growth rates normalizing and the competition breathing down its proverbial neck.
It
currently has $8.3 billion in net debt on its balance sheet, surpassing its cash reserves. Continuing to drive original content has put Netflix in an increasingly precarious situation, putting immense pressure on both lines.
Is NFLX Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, NFLX stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Out of 35 total analyst ratings, 17 Buys, 15 Holds, and three Sell ratings were assigned over the past three months.
The average
NFLX stock price target is $348.63, implying 5.25% downside potential. Analyst price targets range from a low of $215 per share to a high of $440 per share.
The Takeaway
Investing in Netflix doesn't seem like much of a bargain right now. At its current market cap, it's still trading at an 80.8x cash-flow multiple. Even if it returns to pre-pandemic growth rates, it's still a remarkably high valuation.
Additionally, the firm's fourth-quarter results point to an unimpressive growth trajectory ahead. It seems unlikely that it could start growing its subscriber count and revenue growth rates by double-digit percentages again. It faces stiff competition from companies with enough wiggle room to continue investing in content. Therefore, it's best to avoid NFLX stock at this time.
Disclosure
It’s the most critical time of the year for stocks – earnings season. Investors will remain busy sorting through quarterly results for some time, with plenty of companies unveiling what’s transpired behind closed doors.
Last year, macro pressures hammered
tech stocks and even the mighty
FAANG (Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
), previously called Facebook, Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
), Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
), Netflix (
NASDAQ:NFLX
), and Google’s parent company Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOGL,
GOOG
)) were not spared. However,
FAANG stocks have started 2023 on a positive note due to improved investor sentiment. Using
TipRanks Stock Comparison Tool, we’ll place Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Netflix against each other to pick the most attractive FAANG stock as per Wall Street experts.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META)
Shares of Meta Platforms have jumped 19% year-to-date, although they remain significantly below the 52-week high. A slowdown in ad spending due to macro pressures, rising competition from ByteDance’s TikTok, and Apple’s iOS privacy changes hurt Meta in 2022. Moreover, investors are concerned about the billions of dollars the company invested in its Metaverse projects.
However, Meta bulls remain optimistic about the company’s extensive customer base (2.93 billion users on average accessed at least one of Meta’s Family of Apps – Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, per day in September 2022). Moreover, Meta is taking initiatives to lower its costs and increase the monetization of its apps.
Is Meta Stock a Buy?
On Wednesday, Credit Suisse analyst
Stephen Ju increased his price target for
Meta Platforms stock to $180 from $145. Ju reiterated a Buy rating for the stock based on his updated thesis that highlighted “potential for positive operating margin and FCF [free cash flow] growth inflection starting in 3Q23 and accelerating thereafter.”
The analyst also sees the potential for better-than-anticipated ad revenue growth backed by increased monetization of Instagram, Reels, and other features. He also noted a possible moderation in Meta’s investments in Reality Labs as the company looks for greater efficiencies.
Overall, Wall Street’s Moderate Buy consensus rating for Meta Platforms is based on 29 Buys, seven Holds, and three Sells. The average price target of $149.03 for
Meta stock implies 4.1% upside potential.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)
Amazon’s growth rate slowed down following the reopening of the economy as pandemic-induced tailwinds faded and macro pressures hurt consumers’ spending. The company’s lucrative cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), helped in offsetting the weakness in the retail business in recent quarters. However, fears of an economic slowdown have impacted AWS’ growth rate.
Meanwhile, Amazon is aggressively reducing its costs and streamlining its operations to improve its financial position.
Is Amazon a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Ahead of Amazon’s Q4 results scheduled on February 2, Telsey Advisory Group analyst
Joseph Feldman reiterated a Buy rating on
Amazon stock but cut his price target to $125 from $140. Feldman reduced his Q422 and 2023 estimates to reflect a tough consumer and corporate spending backdrop. Amazon is also getting impacted by currency headwinds and strategic investments.
Feldman expects business trends to improve in the second half of this year. He expects Amazon’s profitability to improve due to several initiatives, including its focus on higher margin categories, reduced spending on logistics and fulfillment centers, and the closure of unprofitable divisions. He also anticipates Amazon to benefit from newer businesses like grocery, pharmacy, and telehealth.
Feldman concluded, “The strong growth and profitability of AWS, as well as its media and advertising offerings, should continue to outperform the company average and support Retail.”
Wall Street remains bullish about
Amazon stock, with a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 34 Buys and four Holds. At $132.10, the average price target implies 37.2% upside potential.
AMZN stock has risen 15% so far this year.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)
Streaming giant Netflix spooked its investors when it reported a decline in subscribers in the first two quarters of 2022. However, the company revived investors’ hopes by adding 2.41 million net new subscribers in Q3 2022. Furthermore, Netflix recently reported net subscriber additions of 7.66 million for Q4 2022, surpassing analysts’ estimate of 4.57 million. Nonetheless, it
missed earnings expectations due to a loss related to euro-denominated debt.
Netflix aims to improve its business through two key initiatives, the ad-based subscription tier and “paid sharing.”
What is the Price Target for NFLX Stock?
Following the Q4 results, Argus analyst
Joseph Bonner increased his price target for
Netflix stock to $390 from $340 and reaffirmed a Buy rating. Bonner highlighted the company’s robust Q4 net paid subscriber data and management’s focus on reviving its revenue growth through attractive original content.
While Netflix is facing challenging economic conditions and intense rivalry, Bonner believes that the company remains the "anchor tenant" for video streaming consumers.
The Moderate Buy consensus rating for
Netflix stock is based on 17 Buys, 14 Holds, and three Sells. The average price target of $351.81 implies a possible downside of 3.3%.
NFLX stock has rallied over 23% so far in 2023.
Final Thoughts
Wall Street is more bullish about Amazon than Meta Platforms and Netflix. Most analysts believe in Amazon’s long-term growth based on its dominance in the e-commerce space, solid prospects for AWS, and the potential to expand into other growth areas. Analysts see higher upside in AMZN stock than the other two
FAANG stocks.
As per TipRanks’ Smart Score System, Amazon scores a nine out of 10, which implies that the stock could outperform the broader market over the long term.
Disclosure
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