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Nvidia’s 5nm Lovelace Chip Is Not the Right Reason to Worry About Nvidia Stock

4 years 3 months ago

This week hasn't been a great one to own semiconductor stocks so far -- but Nvidia (NVDA) shares might turn out to be a relatively safe port in the storm.

The week began on a down note when Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely cut his price target on Intel (INTC), and warned that more generally, investors should begin bracing for semiconductor stock declines on the order of anywhere from 10% to 30%. Danely didn't say outright that this prediction applies to Nvidia as well as to Intel -- but he didn't say it did not apply, either.

Before you get too glum (chum) about that prediction, though, it might be worth reading a second opinion on Nvidia -- and as luck would have it, Morgan Stanley's 5-star analyst Joseph Moore has just delivered just such an opinion. In a recent note, Moore took a negative view of Intel, but a more nuanced view of Nvidia.

Bad news first: According to Morgan Stanley's "Taiwan semis team," there's a possibility that Nvidia's contract manufacturer of 5nm computer chips might be planning to delay the start of 5nm production "a bit," which could possibly mean that production of the long-awaited Ada Lovelace GPUs will begin not in Q3, as had been hoped, but rather in Q4 2022.

That's not great news (if true). But Moore hurries to point out that the rumored delay has "not [been] confirmed by any of the companies involved."

For that matter, even if the rumors do eventually get confirmed, Moore doesn't think investors should overreact to a simple timetable shift. "Supply chain movement between quarters is fairly common," reminds the analyst, and furthermore, "5nm gaming products are not yet announced." This is key because it means that even if production does get delayed, it's impossible for such a delay to affect any promised deadlines for new products going on sale... because those deadlines have not yet been set!

Furthermore, "launch timing... depends on many factors, including software support, board manufacture, driver readiness, even availability of other components," explains the analyst, any one of which factors could cause a delay. Viewed in that context, delays could crop up even if there is no timetable shift at all in 5nm production start. For now, investor (and consumer) expectation is simply that the new high end Lovelace GPUs will arrive sometime "this year." And if that's all anyone is counting on, then a Q4 production start (if not too late in Q4) could work just as well as a Q3 start to meet that expectation. And once those chips do arrive, Moore expects them to be "a very popular upgrade."

The bigger worry for Nvidia investors, muses Moore, is therefore not the production schedule for 5nm chips, but rather the anticipated "gaming correction" that many analysts have predicted might arrive in early 2023. That's an event even farther out on the calendar than the 5nm production schedule, and correspondingly less certain to materialize. Until greater visibility on the gaming market arrives, however, Moore is still recommending investors adopt an "equal weight" (i.e. neutral) stance on Nvidia stock -- which he values at $182 a share, or about 3% below where the stock trades today. (To watch Moore's track record, click here)

Other analysts are more optimistic. NVDA stock holds a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on 27 Buys and 4 Holds given in recent months. The stock’s average price target of $275.27 suggests it has room to run 47% above its current price of $186.5. (See NVDA stock forecast on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

TipRanks

3 Stocks That Could Be Worth More Than Meta by 2032

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There's no denying Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: FB) -- the company formerly known as Facebook -- has been a rewarding stock. Even with their near-halving of its stock price just since September of last year, shares are still on the order of 1,000% above their post-IPO low hit in 2012.
The Motley Fool

Noteworthy ETF Inflows: SOXX, NVDA, KLAC, MCHP

4 years 3 months ago
Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the iShares Semiconductor ETF (Symbol: SOXX) where we have detected an approximate $170.0 million dollar inflow -- that's a 2.2% increase week over week
BNK Invest

Apple Announces M2 Chip: What Investors Need to Know

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Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is underway for 2022, and the company has announced several new software enhancements for its users. One announcement in particular is of interest to Apple shareholders: the new M2 chip, an update to the M1 that
The Motley Fool

3 Unstoppable Stocks to Buy Now and Never Sell

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The Nasdaq-100 technology index is officially trading in a bear market, having fallen 25% from its all-time high. The decline has been driven by much steeper losses in individual tech stocks, even those that are typically considered high quality because of their strong growth or
The Motley Fool

This Just Happened for the First Time in Nvidia's History

4 years 3 months ago
For the first time in its history, graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) generated a higher quarterly revenue in its data center segment than in its gaming division. While some investors may not truly understand the significance, I believe this is a ma
The Motley Fool

Should You Invest in Nvidia Right Now?

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It has been a trying time for investors across the technology space, even those holding shares of best-in-class, profitable companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Nvidia pioneered the use of graphics processing units (GPUs), and not just for high-end gaming and visualization. It a
The Motley Fool

Which Metaverse Stock Could Augment Investors’ Returns?

4 years 3 months ago

Metaverse is the new buzzword in the tech space. Chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) defines the metaverse as “a shared virtual 3D world, or worlds, that are interactive, immersive, and collaborative.” The Metaverse will be powered by technologies like virtual reality, artificial intelligence (AI), and augmented reality (AR).

The term gained even more attention last year when social media giant Facebook changed its name to Meta Platforms (FB) to reflect the company’s vision to move “beyond 2D screens toward immersive experiences like augmented and virtual reality to help build the next evolution in social technology.”

Considering this backdrop, we used the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool to place AMD, Nvidia, and Unity Software against each other, and select the metaverse stock that could offer attractive returns.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD)

The building of the metaverse will require advanced processors, and semiconductor chip makers like AMD are well-positioned to address this demand.

AMD recently announced its collaboration with Meta Platforms as an ecosystem partner to build a Metaverse-ready radio access unit (or RAN). The company’s radio chip – Xilinx Zynq UltraScale RFSoC, will be used in the Meta’s Evenstar radio units. AMD completed the $49 billion acquisition of Xilinx in February 2022. This acquisition enhanced AMD’s portfolio by adding Xilinx’s FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array)-based technologies.  

Further, AMD recently acquired Pensando Systems for $1.9 billion. This deal expands AMD’s data center solutions capabilities with the addition of Pensando’s high-performance data processing unit and software stack.

Last month, AMD raised its full-year 2022 revenue guidance to reflect the addition of Xilinx, strong server processor revenue, and higher revenue from semi-custom chips that are used in game consoles.

Recently, Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar upgraded AMD to a Buy from Hold and increased the price target to $140 from $90 as his fears of a slowing PC market and Xilinx acquisition being a drag on earnings have not played out as expected.

Harsh sees the pullback in the stock as a good buying opportunity based on mid-to-long-term catalysts like strong server trends, robust semi-custom trends, commercial PC growth offsetting consumer PC exposure, and Xilinx acquisition.

Overall, the Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AMD based on 13 Buys and nine Holds. At $134.47, the average AMD price target implies 27.28% upside potential over the next 12 months. Shares are down nearly 27% year-to-date.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)

Nvidia, which has a dominant position in the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) market, is helping customers build the metaverse through its Omniverse platform. Nvidia’s Omniverse is a simulation and collaboration platform that connects 3D worlds into a shared virtual universe.

Omniverse platform is now being used in many industries for several applications, including design collaboration and in creating digital twins (like simulations of real-world buildings and factories). For instance, German automaker BMW Group is using Nvidia's Omniverse to create a digital twin of an entire factory.

Overall, demand for Nvidia’s graphics chips in gaming, data centers, and metaverse is expected to drive its long-term growth. The company is also geared up to launch its first data center CPU in 2023.

Following Los Alamos National Laboratory’s recent announcement about a next-generation supercomputer called Venado at the ISC22 conference, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers stated that it was “another massive next-gen supercomputer deployment” to use Nvidia's upcoming Arm-based Grace Superchip CPUs (Central Processing Units) along with the company's Grace Hopper Superchips.

Rakers reaffirmed a Buy rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of $250.

Overall, Nvidia scores a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 27 Buys and five Holds. The average Nvidia price target of $271.41 implies 44.47% upside potential from current levels.  Shares are down 36% so far this year.

Unity Software (NYSE: U)

Unity Software’s platform offers software solutions to create, run and monetize interactive real-time 2D and 3D content for mobile phones, tablets, PCs, game consoles, and augmented and virtual reality devices. The company claims that over half of the top 1,000 mobile games on the Apple App Store and Google Play have been created using its platform.

Several companies are using Unity’s software to create digital twins, which refers to virtual copies of real-life asset, physical site, or even a person. 

Unity’s Q1 results were impacted by an internal error that resulted in reduced accuracy of a tool. Also, the company lost the value of a portion of its training data as it ingested bad data from a large customer. These headwinds impacted Unity's monetization business and offset the strong momentum in the company’s Create Solutions division as well as full-year outlook.

William Blair analyst Dylan Becker noted that Unity’s management is taking the necessary steps to address the internal error in an expedited manner, and he considers these headwinds as temporary.   

Becker continues to believe that Unity is poised to capitalize on several industry tailwinds leading to a large and growing market opportunity, which should support sustainable revenue growth of over 30% for the next several years.

Overall, the Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Unity stock based on 11 Buys and three Holds. The average Unity Software price target of $76 implies upside potential of 77.49% from current levels. Shares have declined 70% year-to-date.

Conclusion

AMD, Nvidia, and Unity Software are expected to enjoy strong demand as they have the tools that will help enterprises build out the metaverse. However, given the significant plunge in Unity stock, several analysts see it as a lucrative opportunity to build a position in this pick-and-shovel play for the metaverse and ensure higher returns.  

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