Top-rated Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill was left disappointed recently by the U.S. Government’s hardened stance on chip exports to China and Russia, terming it a “significant headwind” to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
Shares of the company have been in a free fall the past month, dropping 28.1%, amid concerns that the new licensing requirements from the U.S. Government could adversely impact its sales to China by around $400 million in Q3 of FY23.
The analyst estimates that the U.S. Government is unlikely to soften its position anytime soon and has lowered his estimates for the U.S. chipmaker.
Data Center Sales Likely to Take a HitAnalyst Gill believes that this stance is most likely to impact the sales of the A100 Data Centers, which contribute the most in terms of revenues to the Data Center business. He also pointed out that China now represents around 25% of NVDA’s overall data center revenues.
As a result, Gill remains concerned with the slowdown in the spending on data center buildouts by Chinese companies like Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU). Moreover, he believes that the Chinese economy is in deterioration and expects this to continue for the rest of this year.
The analyst is of the view that while data center business is NVDA’s growth engine over the long term, competition in the business “will exert pressure on the company's long-term positioning; however, we believe several industries will transition to AI [artificial intelligence]-based systems faster than before.”
Is NVDA a Buy, Sell or Hold?The analyst remains bullish on the stock with a Buy rating but has lowered the price target from $185 to $170, implying an upside potential of 24.6% at current levels. However, other analysts on the Street remain cautiously optimistic about NVDA with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 23 Buys and eight Holds.
NVDA’s average price prediction of $209.60 implies 53.6% upside potential.
Similarly, financial bloggers are 83% Bullish on NVDA stock, compared to the sector average of 64%.
Concluding RemarksAnalysts are broadly expecting NVDA to take a hit in terms of revenues due to the tough stance of the U.S. Government. However, over the long term, the stock seems poised well and could even ride out this storm.
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Shares of tech giant Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) have lost substantial value this year. A slowdown in growth and overall selling in tech stocks weighed on its share price. Despite the decline, NVDA stock has negative signals from hedge funds, corporate insiders, and retail investors, implying the stock could remain pressured in the short term.
But before reaching a conclusion, let’s examine why Nvidia stock is down and what’s on the horizon for its investors.
Why Is Nvidia Share Price Falling?Nvidia manufactures ICs (integrated circuits) and high-end GPUs (graphics processing units). It witnessed an overwhelming demand for its products, leading to a rally in its stock price. Come 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, COVID-led restrictions in China, and macro weakness across many parts of the world weighed on Nvidia’s growth and dragged its stock down.
It’s worth mentioning that NVDA stock has lost over 50% of its value this year alone. While macro and geopolitical headwinds continue to play spoilsport, the U.S. government’s hardened stance to prevent technology transfers to China (including Hong Kong) and Russia and the new license requirement for exports to these countries further pose challenges.
What Is the Prediction for Nvidia Stock?Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Nvidia's prospect, given the increase in headwinds and a slowdown in its business. NVDA stock sports a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks based on 23 Buys and eight Holds. Further, due to a noteworthy decline in its price, NVDA’s average price target of $209.60 implies 53.6% upside potential.
Moreover, as stated above, hedge fund managers, corporate insiders, and retail investors have lowered their exposure to NVDA stock.
Hedge funds sold 417.9K NVDA stock last quarter. Meanwhile, insiders sold NVDA stock worth 36M during the same period. Also, 0.8% of investors holding portfolios on TipRanks lowered their exposure to NVDA stock in the last 30 days. Overall, NVDA stock carries a Neutral Smart Score of four out of 10.
Bottom Line: Ongoing Headwinds to Limit Upside in the Short TermThe U.S. government’s license requirement for exporting its A100 and forthcoming H100 ICs to China and Russia, continued sales decline in the gaming and professional visualization segment, a slowdown in the data center revenues, and supply constraints could limit the upside in NVDA stock in the short term.
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