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Interview With David Rolfe of Wedgewood Partners

3 years 7 months ago
David Rolfe is the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Wedgewood Partners. Under his leadership, Wedgewood was named a separately managed account (SMA) manager of the year in both 2011 and 2013. He writes some of the most thorough quarterly investing letters I'm awa
The Motley Fool

As Interest in AI Surges, Check Out This ETF

3 years 7 months ago
Investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI) is surging this year. Just as previously hot segments of tech like social media and e-commerce were losing some of their shine with investors amid a tighter economic environment, consumer-facing AI applications like ChatGPT came along and reignited investor interest in the tech sector. Investing in ChatGPT’s creator, privately-held OpenAI, is off-limits to the average investor. However, investors can still gain exposure to the rise of AI. One ETF that investors can use to tap into this growth is the ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF ( NYSEARCA:ROBO ).  What is ROBO ETF? ROBO is an ETF from Robo Global, an index, advisory, and research company. Robo Global focuses on areas like artificial intelligence, robotics, and healthcare technology. This ETF tracks the firm’s ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index. It seeks to provide investors with returns that correspond with this index, minus fees and expenses.  The aptly-named ROBO is no newcomer to AI. The ETF launched in 2013, and Robo Global says that it was the first robotics and AI ETF. Since inception, ROBO has grown to about $1.3 billion in assets under management (AUM). Beyond the Hype Beyond the hype, AI and robotics will be lucrative markets for the winners. Robo Global predicts that the AI market for applications and computing will grow to $410 billion in revenue by 2025, up from just $70 billion in 2020. Similarly, industrial automation is projected to grow to $384 billion by 2025, up from just $158 billion in 2021. When many people think of artificial intelligence, the first thing that comes to mind is ChatGPT. However, ROBO casts a wide net that goes well beyond this type of consumer-facing artificial intelligence. Rather than simply investing in large-cap tech stocks like Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), ROBO looks far and wide to provide investors with broad exposure to AI, automation, and robotics across a variety of industries.  Robo Global President and CIO Bill Studebaker stated that the company sees three key growth drivers for the businesses that Robo Global invests in. These areas are “the further ‘robotification’ of manufacturing, automation in high-touch service businesses, and the use of AI in knowledge-based industries.” The automation of high-touch service businesses and the use of AI in knowledge-based industries could be particularly powerful themes in the near future as companies at different ends of the economic spectrum struggle to attract and retain qualified workers for a variety of reasons. The ETF’s holdings largely fit within these themes.     ROBO's Top Holdings Many of ROBO's top holdings fall within the theme of further automation and "robotification" of manufacturing. Top holdings like Harmonic Drive Systems ( OTC:HSYDF ) and IPG Photonics ( NASDAQ:IPGP ) are plays on the automation of the industry. Harmonic Drive Systems' products, like sensors, drivers, and controllers, can be found in industrial robots and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. IPG Photonics makes high-end lasers used in manufacturing and material processing. Zebra Technologies ( NASDAQ:ZBRA ), another holding, makes barcode scanners, RFID readers, and more. These tools help companies streamline manufacturing and distribution and enable them to track the location of inventory in real time. Other top holdings like Rockwell Automation ( NYSE:ROK ) and Teradyne ( NASDAQ:TER ) also play into this theme. Top 10 holding ServiceNow ( NYSE:NOW ), makes workflow automation software and fits into the idea of increasing AI usage in knowledge-based businesses. As companies struggle to find qualified labor and are forced to rein in expenses, ServiceNow’s offerings should remain attractive to enterprises.  ROBO's Additional Holdings The ETF also holds positions in a handful of semiconductor companies. Semiconductors are crucial to providing the computing power that AI solutions need. Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) chips are crucial to many companies within the AI end market. The semiconductor giant is working with Microsoft to build a "supercomputer" that will manage AI workloads. Nvidia is also building its own large language model, which can be used to train chatbots like ChatGPT. Other holdings of note include stocks like Intuitive Surgical ( NASDAQ:ISRG ) and Deere ( NYSE:DE ). Intuitive Surgical is an $84 billion company that makes cutting-edge robotic surgery systems. These machines enable surgeons to perform minimally invasive procedures with increased precision. Further, an agricultural machinery powerhouse like Deere may not be the first name that comes to mind when one thinks of AI. Nevertheless, Deere's products extensively leverage artificial intelligence to help farmers increase their productivity. Deere makes drones that spray crops and scan for weeds, autonomous and semi-autonomous tractors, and autonomous sprayers.   All told, ROBO's holdings collectively have an average price-to-earnings multiple of 23 (as of December 31, 2022). While this is more expensive than the average multiple for the S&P 500 ( SPX ), it isn’t egregiously expensive. ROBO is investing in profitable companies with tangible solutions in the AI and automation space.  A Well-Diversified ETF The ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF is extremely well-diversified. The fund holds 81 positions, with the top ten positions accounting for only 17.8% of assets. The top position, Harmonic Drive Systems, accounts for just 2.3% of holdings. ROBO takes a wide-reaching approach towards investing in artificial intelligence, with investments across different parts of the robotics and automation supply chain spanning 14 countries.  Performance and Expense Ratio ROBO lost 33% last year as tech and growth stocks sold off. However, as investor interest in AI surges in 2023, ROBO is bouncing back with an impressive 15.6% year-to-date gain. The fund has a three-year return of 25.4% and a five-year return of 27.1%. Additionally, ROBO has an overall Lipper Rating (a rating system for funds) of 3 out of 5.  One thing investors should be aware of is that ROBO has a relatively high expense ratio of 0.95%. Investor Takeaway  There are two negatives investors should note when evaluating this ETF. ROBO's three-year and five-year performances have lagged the broader market, and its expense ratio is relatively high. However, ROBO is off to a strong start this year and looks well-positioned to capture the upside from the growing adoption of artificial intelligence.  The fund is notable for going well beyond the usual large-cap tech suspects when searching for names that give investors exposure to the rise of AI and robotics. ROBO's well-rounded group of holdings gives investors exposure to growth in AI and automation across many industries and end markets. The fund holds quite a few under-the-radar names that could prove to be diamonds in the rough. For investors interested in the growing adoption of artificial intelligence and robotics, ROBO looks like a sensible ETF to capitalize on this long-term trend. Disclosure
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4 Surefire Stocks to Buy in the Next Bear Market

3 years 7 months ago
One could argue that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Global-e Online (NASDAQ: GLBE), Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ: CDNS), and CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) make great dollar-cost-averaging buys regardless of valuation, thanks to their incredible businesses. However, with each stock sportin
The Motley Fool

What AMD and Nvidia Investors Should Know About Recent Updates

3 years 7 months ago
Today's video focuses on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), some concerns investors should be familiar with before the upcoming earnings, and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and why its server market might be seeing a deceleration. Check out the short video to learn more, consider subsc
The Motley Fool

1 Green Flag for Nvidia's Future, and 1 Red Flag

3 years 7 months ago
Last year, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) suffered the brunt of a sell-off that pulled its stock down 50% throughout 2022. However, tech is a forever-evolving industry that sometimes sees a company's luck turn on a dime as new developments bring new opportunities.
The Motley Fool

NVDA vs. AMBA: Which AI-Related Stock is Better?

3 years 7 months ago
In this piece, I evaluated two artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and Ambarella ( NASDAQ:AMBA ), to determine which is better. Upon closer analysis, it looks like NVDA is the better pick, but caution is advised due to its recent run-up and upcoming earnings report. Artificial intelligence has long been a hot topic, but even more so since OpenAI released its ChatGPT AI model. Although valuation is more important now than it was a couple years ago, investors are so excited about AI that they're pushing shares of AI-relevant companies skyward — with no consideration for fundamentals or valuation. NVDA and AMBA are both semiconductor companies. The three-year average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the semiconductor industry is around 26 times, while the three-year average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is around 5.5 times. However, these averages are of little use when the market is in euphoria mode. Without further ado, let's take a look at NVDA and AMBA. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Nvidia is one of those stocks that just keep on giving. On the one hand, its multiples are through the roof, but on the other, there could be more gas left in the tank — eventually. The company's multiples remain below where they've traded during past peaks, but next week's earnings report could send its shares lower if the company disappoints, suggesting a neutral view might be appropriate. Investors have a voracious appetite for Nvidia stock whenever some new technology is linked to the company. In recent years, the shares have gone on wild rides around the explosions of interest in cryptocurrency mining, electric vehicles, and now artificial intelligence. Since going public in 1999, Nvidia has returned well over 27,000%, and since the beginning of 2023, it has gained nearly 60%. However, Nvidia shares remain significantly below their late-2021 peak of over $330. The chipmaker's trailing P/E stands at around 97.7 times, while its P/S is around 19 times. Nvidia's P/E peaked at around 110 in late 2021, while its P/S was around 35 times, suggesting there might be more upside left. The chipmaker's sales have risen steadily in recent years, granting it growth-stock status as sales rose from $10.9 billion in 2020 to $28.6 billion for the last 12 months. Nvidia also generates plenty of free cash flow, at $8.1 billion for the fiscal year that ended in January 2022. Over the last 12 months, the chipmaker reported $4.8 billion in free cash flow after repurchasing $10.6 billion in shares. Its balance sheet is also solid. With analysts like Vivek Arya of Bank of America Securities proclaiming that Nvidia could win big in the "AI arms race," there's plenty to like and perhaps even more upside, but after its latest run, Nvidia is ultra-risky. What is the Price Target for NVDA Stock?  Nvidia has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 19 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell rating assigned over the last three months. At $212.04, the average Nvidia stock price target implies downside potential of 3.6%. Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) Ambarella shares many of the same stock-price drivers, but a deeper look at its fundamentals reveals that the company isn't nearly as strong. Essentially, the risk of Ambarella stock running out of gas is just as high as Nvidia's, but its comparably weak fundamentals suggest a bearish view might be appropriate. The first thing a deep dive into Ambarella reveals is its lack of profitability. While the company has a solid track record of revenue and earnings beats, it just can't seem to turn a profit, although it does generate a small amount of free cash flow. Although investors have happily granted Ambarella growth-stock status with soaring multiples despite its lack of profits, the chipmaker doesn't deserve it. The company hasn't been growing its revenue fast enough to be granted growth status. Ambarella's P/S stands at around 10.6 times, remaining far below its late-2021 peak at around 26.8 times, but investors should be asking when Ambarella will become profitable. In November 2021, analysts said the chipmaker was near breakeven, so they projected profitability in 2024. In June 2022, analysts projected GAAP profitability in Fiscal 2025. While Ambarella has a healthy balance sheet with almost no debt, its valuation and lack of profitability are unbreachable barriers for now. What is the Price Target for AMBA Stock?  Ambarella has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 11 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell rating assigned over the last three months. At $94.69, the average Ambarella stock price target implies upside potential of 0.73%. Conclusion: Neutral on NVDA, Bearish on AMBA Nvidia is a high-risk stock as it continued to skyrocket despite the over $50 million in insider sales over the last three months. While the stock looks good over the long term, investors might want to look for a better entry point, and one could appear following the next earnings report. Meanwhile, Ambarella is not a growth stock, although it's valued like one. Aside from its balance sheet, there's not much to like in the near term. Disclosure 
TipRanks

The 5 Best-Performing ETFs of 2023 So Far

3 years 7 months ago
The five best-performing ETFs of 2023 so far have one thing in common -- all five are focused on various aspects of the cryptocurrency industry. When screening out leveraged ETFs, the top-performing ETFs year-to-date are the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF ( NASDAQ:WGMI ), the VanEck Digital Assets Mining ETF ( NASDAQ:DAM ), the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF ( NASDAQ:DAPP ), the Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF ( NYSEARCA:BITQ ) and the Global X Blockchain ETF ( NASDAQ:BKCH ). Why are These ETFs Surging? Cryptocurrencies had a terrible year in 2022, as surging inflation, rising interest rates, and a number of high-profile scandals in the sector caused the previously high-flying asset class to plummet. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) fell 64% and 67%, respectively, so it’s no surprise that crypto-related ETFS struggled. For example, DAPP, BKCH, and BITQ all fell about 85% in 2022. After this pronounced decline in 2022, some reversion was likely inevitable in 2023. Bitcoin and Ethereum have surged to year-to-date gains of 37.3% and 31.6%, respectively. These top-performing ETFs have followed them higher, as the Valykyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF, VanEck Digital Assets Mining ETF, VanEck Vectors Digital Transformation ETF, Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF, and Global X Blockchain ETF have posted scintillating year-to-date gains of 99.4%, 94.9%, 83.4%, 78.2%, and 75.8% respectively. Let’s take a look at these ETFs and whether they can keep up their strong performance.  Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (NASDAQ:WGMI) The Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF is an offering from Valkyrie exclusively focused on Bitcoin miners. The ticker is a play on ‘WAGMI,’ a popular acronym and rallying cry within the crypto community that stands for “We’re all gonna make it.”  This is a small ETF with just $5 million in assets under management (AUM). WGMI's top 10 holdings are all Bitcoin miners such as Cleanspark ( NASDAQ:CLSK ), Digihost Technology ( NASDAQ:DGHI ), Bitfarms ( NASDAQ:BITF ), HIVE Blockchain Technologies ( NASDAQ:HIVE ), and Riot Platforms ( NASDAQ:RIOT ). The Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF is concentrated with just 20 holdings, and the top 10 holdings make up nearly 75% of the fund. Top position Cleanspark accounts for nearly 10% of holdings. WGMI has a neutral ETF smart score of 5. While it has a Hold consensus rating, the average WGMI stock price target of $15.64 indicates upside of 66% from current levels. Lastly, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF has a relatively high expense ratio of 0.75%.   VanEck Digital Assets Mining ETF (NASDAQ:DAM) Like WGMI, the VanEck Digital Assets Mining ETF is a small ETF focused on Bitcoin miners. However, it is even smaller than WGMI, with just $1.3 million in AUM. Like WGMI, DAM is a concentrated fund with 21 positions. DAM's top 10 holdings make up 71.4% of the fund, and they have significant overlap with that of WAGMI. Top 10 stocks include names like Riot Platforms, Hive Blockchain Technologies, Hut 8 Mining ( NASDAQ:HUT ), Cleanspark, and Marathon Digital ( NASDAQ:MARA ). One difference between DAM and WGMI is that DAM also holds positions in companies like Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ), Galaxy Digital ( OTC:BRPHF ), and Silvergate Capital ( NYSE:SI ), giving it some exposure to different parts of the crypto economy. DAM has a neutral ETF Smart Score of 4 out of 10. Meanwhile, the analyst consensus calls DAM a Hold, although the average DAM price target of $19.24 indicates significant upside potential of 76% from the current price. DAM's expense ratio of 0.5% is lower than that of WGMI.     VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF is much larger than WGMI and DAM, but it's still a relatively small ETF with $28.5 million in AUM. DAPP differs from these two ETFs in that its focus goes well beyond crypto mining. It invests in companies involved in all aspects of the digital asset ecosystem. While DAPP's top 10 holdings include some of the same names from WGMI and DAM, crypto exchange Coinbase is the top holding. The second largest holding is Block ( NYSE:SQ ), a fintech company with significant involvement in crypto. The third-largest holding, MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ), is an enterprise software company that holds significant amounts of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. This makes DAPP more diversified than the two names above and gives DAPP exposure to the growth of other facets of the digital assets space. DAPP is fairly concentrated, with just 22 holdings, and the top 10 holdings make up 63.5% of the fund.  The ETF's ticker is a play on ‘dApp’ the term given to decentralized applications on the Ethereum blockchain.  While DAPP fell 85% last year, it’s up 83% year to date, as top holdings like Coinbase and MicroStrategy have surged early this year.  Like its fellow VanEck ETF DAM, VanEck Digital Transformation ETF has an expense ratio of 0.5%.  DAPP has a neutral ETF Smart Score of 4 out of 10 and a consensus rating of Hold. The average DAPP stock price target of $7.35 represents upside potential of 45% from current levels.  Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ)  The Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF is the fourth-best performing ETF of 2023 using the parameters discussed earlier, with a 78.2% gain year-to-date. BITQ is larger than the three names above, with $51.6 million in AUM, but it is still a small ETF in the grand scheme of things.  Like DAPP, this ETF is focused on innovation in the crypto space as a whole, so BITQ's top holdings include Bitcoin miners as well as the likes of Coinbase, Microstrategy, and Galaxy Digital.  BITQ has the highest expense ratio on this list, with an expense ratio of 0.85%.  BITQ is a bit more diversified than the other ETFs mentioned here, with 28 holdings. Its top 10 holdings account for 64.7% of the fund, with Microstrategy and Coinbase each accounting for over 10% of holdings.  BITQ has a neutral ETF Smart Score of 4 out of 10 and a Hold consensus rating. The average analyst price target of $7.95 represents upside potential of 30% from current prices.  Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) Lastly, the Global X Blockchain ETF is sized similarly to BITQ, with $58 million in AUM. Like DAPP and BITQ, it invests in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space as a whole. Block has the largest weighting by far, accounting for nearly 18% of the fund. Other top 10 holdings include Coinbase and the same Bitcoin miners as the other ETFs here. Interestingly, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is a top 10 position, as Nvidia’s semiconductors are used for crypto mining. BKCH has 25 holdings, and its top 10 holdings make up 73.8% of the fund.  BKCH has an ETF Smart Score of 4 and a Hold consensus rating. The average BKCH stock price target of $31.16 indicates potential upside of 40% from here.  BKCH has an expense ratio of 0.5% and is unique amongst these five ETFs in that it pays a dividend, currently yielding 0.7%.  The Takeaway Because cryptocurrency performed so poorly in 2022, it’s unsurprising that there has been some reversion to the mean. What is somewhat surprising is the size and pace of these gains. One word of caution here is that historically, cryptocurrency has been a volatile asset class. The crypto mining ETFs have essentially acted as levered plays on the price of Bitcoin. As Bitcoin climbed higher this year, they have surged to outsize gains. However, if Bitcoin moves lower, these ETFs could see significant and rapid declines in excess of the decline of Bitcoin. Their minuscule size could also lead to additional volatility, leaving them vulnerable to the vagaries of the market.  Therefore, I prefer the ETFs that are focused on the crypto space as a whole. They are more diversified and slightly larger. Of these, I prefer DAPP and BKCH to BITQ due to their lower expense ratios (and BKCH’s dividend). However, it should be noted that these are all relatively small ETFs. All three will still be subject to the volatility of the crypto sector. If growth stocks sell off in 2023, these ETFs will suffer as well.  Investors who bought these ETFs in advance of these large moves to the upside can take a bow. While these ETFs may post solid returns for 2023, the pace of these returns so far is likely unsustainable, and there will be plenty of volatility along the way.  Alternative Considerations There is one final note for interested investors to consider. Investors interested in cryptocurrency can simply purchase cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum and get more direct exposure to the assets themselves instead of doing it through these ETFs. Investors interested in Bitcoin mining can buy shares of one of the large Bitcoin miners like Marathon Digial or Riot Platforms. This would give them the same exposure with a much larger market cap and without the management fees. Lastly, investors interested in innovation in the industry, in general, can consider simply investing in a name like Coinbase or Block.   Disclosure
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Notable Thursday Option Activity: BBWI, NVDA, META

3 years 7 months ago
Looking at options trading activity among components of the S&P 500 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Bath & Body Works Inc (Symbol: BBWI), where a total volume of 19,315 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of a
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