San Francisco may be the symbolic capital of the tech industry, and the hub of next-generation services like artificial intelligence, but when it comes to self-driving cars, city officials are clear: not so fast.
Although the burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) market presents massive opportunities, investors may ultimately find a greater probability of success through charging network operators like EVgo (
NASDAQ:EVGO
). Bluntly speaking, individual EV brands won’t get very far without robust public infrastructure. Therefore, EVGO stock makes a better long-term case for the global EV rollout. I am bullish on the charging specialist.
EVGO Stock Rises on Substantive Financial Progress
Most investors recognize the upside potential of EV integration. However, the problem with individual EV manufacturers centers on a lack of financial substance. Consider the startup sector in this space, and you’ll see plenty of aspirational but pre-revenue enterprises. In contrast, EVGO stock benefits from tangible operational progress.
Recently, TipRanks reporter Sheryl Sheth said that shares of the charging network company popped sharply following solid results for its Fiscal Q2 2023 earnings report. Specifically, EVgo disclosed an
increase in the number of drivers using its chargers, leading to an overall encouraging print.
Moreover, the company posted revenue of $50.6 million, representing a massive 457% increase on a year-over-year basis. Not surprisingly, this tally easily beat analysts’ consensus estimate calling for $29.45 million. Also, its eXtend unit, which offers charging infrastructure and solutions for businesses, contributed 66% of the expansion of sales growth. Nominally, the unit rang up $33.3 million in revenue.
On the bottom line, EVgo posted a diluted loss of 8 cents per share. Though this figure landed in red ink, it nevertheless mitigated analysts’ expectations, which called for a loss of 26 cents. However, in the year-ago quarter, the company posted diluted earnings per share of 6 cents.
Still, a key takeaway is that “the total amount of electricity provided to charging customers (network throughput) during Q2 grew 14% year-over-year to 24.9 gigawatt-hours,” wrote Sheth.
In contrast, individual EV makers are suffering challenges. For example, Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) recently incurred a
slowdown in deliveries in China. Essentially, EV demand may slow from prior peaks until charging networks become adequate. That’s a huge addressable market for EVgo.
Fundamentals Point to a Favorable Direction
Although betting on a single EV manufacturing brand may yield far greater profitability potential, the likelihood of success is arguably limited. Fundamentally, individual brands must compete with other brands, convincing customers that their way is the superior path. On the flip side, every EV driver needs access to charging. Therefore, EVGO stock enjoys a brand-agnostic framework, making it exceptionally compelling.
To this point, charging network operators during the early phase of the EV rollout suffered timing issues. Because the first-generation EVs were quite pricey – and they still are, generally speaking – only affluent customers could afford them. These folks typically had access to a garage or carport, thus facilitating home charging.
However, as technologies advance and economies of scale rise, EVs should become more accessible to a larger consumer base. At that point, you’re dealing with a sizable segment of the population that lack garages or carports. Under this phase of the EV rollout, competition will be particularly fierce as brands would then have to combine quality with attractive pricing.
That said, the beauty of EVGO stock is that its shareholders don’t have to worry much about said competition. While the brands fight over sector dominance, they all would have one thing in common: their new middle-income consumers will need access to public charging. Given EVgo’s improving position in the industry, it’s no surprise to see its valuation swinging higher.
Also, it’s worth mentioning that public charging networks don’t just serve garage-less drivers. If anyone, irrespective of their housing situation, drives many miles for their occupation, home charging might not be robust enough. Further, those who like to travel across state borders for vacations will need public charging. Either way, EVGO stock benefits.
Is EVGO Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, EVGO stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on four Buys, three Holds, and one Sell rating. The
average EVGO stock price target is $8.04, implying 67.5% upside potential.
The Takeaway: EVGO Stock Banks on a Common Need
More than likely, those who speculate on an individual EV brand enjoy greater reward potential. However, figuring out which brand will dominate represents no easy task. Further, as companies saturate the high-income population, competition will be fierce for the middle-income crowd. However, this segment will likely require vast public charging networks. That’s where EVGO stock stands to benefit handsomely, making it worth consideration.
Disclosure
Few entities dominate their core market quite like
electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
). Even with startups competing aggressively in the space, the concept of EVs remains practically synonymous with Tesla. That said, consumer pressures point to the company dragging down the stretch. Therefore, in the near term, I am tactically bearish on TSLA stock.
TSLA Stock Must Move Beyond the Low-Hanging Fruit
While being first doesn’t always guarantee success, it can certainly yield significant rewards. A case in point is TSLA stock. On an adjusted basis, shares were trading at a little over a buck in 2010. Undeniably, then, those who invested heavily in Tesla during its early years saw life-changing returns. However, at some point, the company must have a strategy that moves beyond the low-hanging fruit.
To clarify the above point, no one is silly enough to dismiss the raw power of the Tesla brand. As TipRanks reporter Vince Condarcuri stated earlier this year, the company’s Model Y
took the title as the world’s top-selling car. Data from Jato Dynamics revealed that the Model Y sold 267,200 units worldwide.
Fundamentally, this groundbreaking achievement is impressive for two reasons. First, Tesla beat Toyota (
NYSE:TM
) and its top-selling Corolla (at 256,400 units) and RAV4 (at 214,700 units) models. Second, the Model Y costs significantly more than the latter two budget-friendly vehicles. At $47,490, the Model Y’s price dwarfs the Corolla’s $21,550 and the RAV4’s $27,575.
Under this framework, it would seem that consumers will continue opening their wallets and buying high-priced EVs. However, other data points suggest that Tesla has already addressed the low-hanging fruit -- the customers that can readily afford its vehicles.
Looking ahead, management will need a plan to attract customers that don’t necessarily have the most bountiful financial resources. Put another way, TSLA stock may be priced to a standard it can’t quite meet.
Some Cracks Appear in Tesla’s Armor
Although arguably no one would question Tesla’s dominance in the EV sector, at least some cracks are starting to appear in Tesla’s armor. As a result, investors shouldn’t be in too much of a hurry to bet everything on TSLA stock.
For example, TipRanks contributor Steve Anderson recently pointed out that TSLA stock fared well in the charts despite
fading vehicle delivery numbers in China. Citing the China Passenger Car Association, Anderson reported that Tesla sold 64,285 Chinese-made EVs in July. One year ago, the Shanghai Gigafactory failed to deliver even half that figure.
Still, to Anderson’s point, just a month prior, the Gigafactory delivered 31% more. Interestingly, China has been struggling with
less-than-desirable economic progress, which may contribute to declining EV demand.
More critically, in the U.S., the average age of vehicles on its roadways continues to hit record numbers. In 2022, this metric reached a then-record 12.2 years. This year, data from S&P Global Mobility confirmed that this statistic hit 12.5 years. For sedans, this automotive category spiked to 13.6 years.
Essentially, inflation is starting to catch up with consumers. During the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers made the decision to backstop the impact of the crisis. However, such actions don’t occur in a vacuum. One of the major consequences of the monetary and fiscal stimulus programs is that now, fewer households can afford luxuries such as new EVs.
Instead, consumers are choosing to drive their (combustion) cars until the wheels fall off. That’s not a great backdrop for TSLA stock.
Investors Have Come to Expect Too Much
Perhaps one of the more worrying headwinds for TSLA stock might not have anything to do with the underlying business at all. Instead, investors may have come to expect too much from Tesla. If it can’t continue delivering against elevated hopes, TSLA could suffer.
For instance, it’s wonderful that Tesla
posted revenue of $81.46 billion last year. However, moving forward, growth will not be so easy to come by. In 2008, the company rang up sales of $15 million. By 2011, revenue had reached $204 million; by 2013, sales hit $2.01 billion, about 10x higher than 2011's figure.
However, it took until 2018 – when Tesla posted revenue of $21.46 billion – for the EV maker to do another 10x. Stated differently, the growth rate is noticeably fading as Tesla addresses the low-hanging fruit. Now, it must grab the higher-hanging fruit, which is a much more difficult proposition, especially in this economy.
Is TSLA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, TSLA stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 10 Buys, 13 Holds, and four Sell ratings. The
average TSLA stock price target is $263.33, implying 4.7% upside potential.
The Takeaway: TSLA Stock Enters a New Phase
Ultimately, the market doesn’t look backward. While there’s no denying that Tesla dominated the EV space since the early 2010s, what it does next is the most important factor for current investors. However, the data and the broader economic conditions don’t necessarily signal encouragement. That’s why investors should be careful about TSLA stock.
Disclosure
U.S. stocks finished higher on Monday, regaining some of the ground lost last week, as investors added positions ahead of Thursday's highly awaited U.S. inflation report.
Luxury electric vehicle maker Lucid Group stuck to its annual production target after it missed quarterly revenue estimates, sending its shares higher by about 4% in extended trading.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, regaining some ground lost last week, as investors added positions ahead of Thursday's highly awaited U.S. inflation report.
Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Tesla Inc (Symbol: TSLA), where a total of 1.7 million contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 168.0 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 1
Wall Street advanced on Monday, shaking off some early choppiness after last week's subdued performance, as investors added positions ahead of Thursday's highly awaited U.S. inflation report.
What happened
Shares of the newer up-and-coming electric vehicle (EV) hopefuls Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID), Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), and Nikola (NASDAQ: NKLA) were falling Monday, down 4.9%, 4.5%, and 11.6%, respectively, as of 12:50 p.m. ET.
The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow climbed higher on Monday following a choppy week, with investors looking ahead to a highly awaited U.S. inflation report due later in the week that could test the market's sharp recovery this year.
Atlantic Lithium said on Monday the Africa-focused company was confident of getting a lease for a lithium mine in Ghana following the approval of a green minerals policy by the country's government.
What you need to know… The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +0.67%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up +0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is up +0.49%. Stocks this morning are moderately higher on optimism that...
Wall Street climbed higher on Monday following a choppy week, with investors looking ahead to a highly awaited U.S. inflation report due later in the week that could test the market's sharp recovery this year.
On August 7, 2023 at 09:49:31 ET an unusually large $4,665.00K block of Call contracts in Tesla (TSLA) was sold, with a strike price of $300.00 / share, expiring in 165 day(s) (on January 19, 2024). Fintel tracks all large options trades, and the premium spent on this trade was
San Francisco may be the symbolic capital of the tech industry, and the hub of next-generation services like artificial intelligence, but when it comes to self-driving cars, city officials are clear: not so fast.
Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining reported a 73% drop in first-quarter profit on Monday, but lifted its full-year profit outlook by 26% thanks to stronger-than-expected gold prices and one-off gains from a weaker yen.
Electric vehicle (EV) maker Lucid (
NASDAQ:LCID
) is scheduled to
announce its second-quarter results after the market close on Monday, August 7. Following a
disappointing Q2 2023 deliveries report last month, analysts will now focus on the company’s cash burn, margins, and management’s commentary about demand.
Ahead of the Q2 results, Lucid slashed prices of its EVs amid intense competition and a price war triggered by Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
). The company lowered the price its Air Pure sedan by $5,000 to $82,400, with the offer being valid “while supplies last.” Additionally, Lucid reduced the prices of its Touring and Grand Touring models to $95,000 and $125,600, respectively, marking a cut of $12,400 each.
Analysts’ Q2 Estimates for Lucid
Last month, Lucid reported Q2 2023 production and deliveries of 2,173 and 1,404 vehicles, respectively. These numbers marked a decline compared to the first quarter production and deliveries of 2,314 and 1,406 vehicles, respectively, and sparked concerns about the demand for the company’s EVs due to their high price points and macro challenges. Lucid’s Q2 deliveries also lagged analysts’ consensus estimate of over 1,800 vehicles.
For the second quarter,
analysts expect Q2 2023 loss per share to widen to $0.34 from $0.33 in the prior-year quarter. They project revenue to increase to $181.6 million compared to $97.3 million in Q2 2022.
Investors are concerned about the growing losses and cash burn. Lucid’s cash and cash equivalents fell to $900 million at the end of Q1 2023 from $1.74 billion at the end of 2022. In early June, Lucid shares declined when the company
announced that it was raising capital of about $3 billion, with two-thirds of that amount coming from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF). It is worth noting that PIF owns more than 60% of Lucid.
In July,
Bank of America analyst John Murphy resumed coverage of Lucid with a Hold rating and a price target of $8. The analyst reduced his Q2 2023 and full-year earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) estimates to reflect the weak Q2 deliveries. However, Murphy did not make any significant adjustments to his estimates for 2024 and beyond.
The analyst said that he plans to revisit his expectations following additional commentary during the second-quarter earnings call.
Is Lucid a Good Stock to Buy?
Wall Street’s Moderate Buy consensus rating on
Lucid stock is based on three Buys and three Holds. The average price target of $8.67 implies about 31% upside.
Shares are down 3% year-to-date.
Insights from Options Trading Activity
TipRanks now presents options activity to help investors plan their trades ahead of earnings releases.
Options traders are pricing in a 14.2% move on Lucid earnings. LCID shares have averaged a (5.4)% move in the last seven quarters. In particular, the stock declined nearly 6% following the Q1 2023 results announcement, as the company reported a
wider-than-anticipated loss
per
share and also missed revenue expectations.
The anticipated move is determined by computing the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to the expiration after the earnings announcement.
Learn more about TipRanks’ Options tool here.
Disclosure
Japanese trading company Sumitomo Corp and Australian lithium developer Liontown Resources said on Monday they had agreed to work together to study producing lithium hydroxide in Japan.