Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for TESLA INC (TSLA). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, TSLA rates highest using our P/B Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Partha Mohanram. This growth model looks for low book-to-market stocks that exhibit cha
Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itsel
While I've been bullish on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock for a while, some items in its latest earnings report concern me. One or two reports shouldn't sway investors' confidence, but there may be a reason to worry when it's a consistent trend.
If you're interested in broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market, look no further than the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RSPD), a passively managed exchange t
Growth stocks can fall with the broader market, but the best ones can outperform over many years. History shows that time in the market is a better -- and much easier -- path to building wealth than trying to time the market. You only need to buy shares of a growing business and
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock isn't flying as high as it was earlier this year. A combination of the overall stock market pullback and disappointing third-quarter results have caused Tesla's share price to sink close to 30% below its July high.
U.S. stock index futures were mixed on Tuesday in the run-up to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that will shape expectations for its interest rate path, while investors also awaited a fresh batch of earnings reports.
The Meet Kevin Pricing Power ETF (
NYSEARCA:PP) is an interesting actively-managed ETF that may catch the eyes of investors with its unique name or with its 22% year-to-date return. However, despite this strong 2023 performance, caution is likely warranted going forward for two key reasons. I’m neutral on PP based on its heavy concentration risk and its sky-high fees.
What is the PP ETF’s Investment Process?
PP is an actively-managed ETF that seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing in what it calls U.S.-listed “innovative companies,” according to mketf.com.
The fund manager defines these innovative companies as those that are “involved in the development of new products or services, technological advancements, consumer engagement, and/or disruptive approaches with respect to business growth that the Sub-Adviser expects to have a significant impact on the market or industry in which the company operates.”
PP will then invest in “Innovative Companies that, in Kevin’s view, also have more ‘pricing power’ than their peers.” Meet Kevin (the fund manager) defines pricing power as the “ability to potentially increase prices for products and services without a corresponding drop in demand.”
To select the innovative companies that the fund will invest in, Kevin then screens an "extremely large initial universe of U.S.-listed companies with a minimum market capitalization of $100 million utilizing a proprietary screening methodology. Then, Kevin analyzes the remaining initial universe of companies to identify those innovative companies that Kevin perceives as having pricing power versus their peers."
These are all good traits to look for when investing in a company, but this approach also leaves quite a bit up to the discretion of the fund manager.
At this point, it might be a good time to take a quick detour and ask, who is the eponymous "Kevin" of the Meet Kevin Pricing Power ETF?
Who is Kevin?
The Kevin of “Meet Kevin” is Kevin Pathraff, a popular YouTube personality with nearly 1.9 million subscribers. He describes himself as a licensed financial advisor and real estate broker, and he is also a commentator on topics including finance, politics, and news. He is perhaps best known as a real estate investor whom
Curbed described as a “landlord influencer.”
He also ran as a Democrat to replace California governor Gavin Newsome during the 2021 gubernatorial recall election, where he won 9.6% of the vote but ultimately came up short.
Meet Kevin's Holdings
One key reason for caution with the PP ETF is that there is quite a bit of concentration risk here. The fund holds just 16 positions, and its top 10 holdings make up 85.8% of the fund.
Below, you’ll find an overview of
PP’s top 10 holdings using TipRanks’ holdings tool.
Perhaps most concerning, top holding Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA) makes up a quarter of the fund’s assets. This has been a great thing for PP investors this year, as shares of Tesla surged and took the price of PP with it, but Tesla is a volatile stock, and this outsized position in the firm can lead to a lot of downside for PP investors if Tesla slumps.
Similarly, PP also has fairly large positions in both Enphase Energy (
NASDAQ:ENPH) and Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA) of 13.4% and 10.0%, respectively, meaning that nearly 50% of the fund's assets are in just these three stocks.
Furthermore, many of these holdings are what you could call priced for perfection. For instance, Tesla trades at 63.7 times earnings, while Nvidia trades at nearly 100 times earnings. Other top holdings like Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:AMD) and The Trade Desk (
NASDAQ:TTD) trade for 35.1 times earnings and 261 times earnings (53.8 times forward earnings), respectively. When stocks trade with valuations this high, they can go down quickly when things go wrong.
Part of the reason that investors use ETFs is to gain diversified exposure to specific sectors of the economy or large swaths of the stock market, which helps to limit downside risk, but you aren’t going to benefit from that in a fund with this much concentration in just a handful of stocks.
Sky-High Expense Ratio
The other reason for caution with the PP ETF is its strikingly high expense ratio of 0.77%.
An expense ratio of 0.77% means that an investor allocating $10,000 into this fund will pay $77 in fees in year one, which is pretty steep. But that’s nothing compared to how these fees can compound over time. Assuming the fund returns 5% per year going forward and keeps this expense ratio, this same investor will pay $246 in fees over the course of three years. Over the course of 10 years, the investor would pay $1,155 in fees, meaning that well over 10% of their initial investment would be eaten up by fees.
Is PP Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, PP earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buys, five Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The
average PP stock price target of $28.36 implies 39.1% upside potential.
Investor Takeaway
PP is a unique ETF with an interesting strategic focus, and I’ll give the fund credit for that. It’s also done very well for its holders year-to-date, and its active manager picked some strong winners this year, which it also deserves credit for. However, I’m also concerned about the fund’s high level of concentration in just a small number of expensive stocks, which could see these year-to-date gains quickly go in the other direction (as they have recently) if disproportionately large positions like Tesla or Nvidia struggle.
The ETF’s expense ratio of 0.77% is also quite high. In fairness, PP is an actively-managed ETF, so it’s natural that its expenses are going to be higher than those of an index fund. However, this is still a lot to pay for a new ETF that is yet to establish much of a long-term track record, or really any ETF for that matter.
You can alternatively invest in ETFs like the Invesco QQQ Trust (
NASDAQ:QQQ) or the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (
NYSEARCA:XLK) that give you exposure to the same stocks like Tesla and Nvidia for a fraction of the price. QQQ’s expense ratio is 0.20%, while XLK’s is just 0.10%. Plus, these funds have built up strong track records of consistent success over many years, whereas PP has not been around for long enough to do this, having launched in November 2022.
The ETF is certainly an interesting one, but for these reasons, as they say on
Shark Tank, “I’m out.”
Disclosure
Shares of
electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) have been under pressure due to concerns over the company’s declining margins amid rising competition, persistent macro headwinds, and the delay related to the Cybertruck rollout. TSLA stock has declined 21% over the past one month, although it is still up 60% year-to-date. Analysts are increasingly pointing out the impact of
CEO Elon Musk’s price cuts on the company’s profitability. They are worried about the road ahead, given the growing rivalry in the EV space and other near-term headwinds, which could limit the upside potential in the stock in the days ahead.
Near-Term Headwinds Could Weigh on the Stock
On Monday, Tesla shares fell by about 5%, as battery production cut by key supplier Panasonic Holdings raised concerns about a slowdown in EV sales. Panasonic reduced battery cell production for the September quarter due to the slowing demand for high-end EVs in North America, raising concerns about the demand for Tesla vehicles.
On the
Q3 earnings call held on October 18, Musk said that he was worried about the affordability of Tesla’s EVs in a high interest rate environment. Musk also cautioned about
the company’s much-awaited Cybertruck, saying that it would take 12 to 18 months before the electric pickup truck becomes a notable cash flow contributor.
While Musk emphasized that the Cybertruck is one of those special products that comes along only once in a long while, he admitted that it is very difficult to bring it to market and ramp up volumes. “I mean, we dug our own grave with Cybertruck,” said Musk.
Aside from macro woes and Cybertruck worries, investor sentiment has also been hit by declining margins due to the company’s decision to slash prices to boost volumes in a highly competitive market. Tesla’s operating margin in the third quarter plunged to 7.6% from 17.2% in the prior-year quarter. While the CEO had earlier brushed off worries about slumping margins and expressed confidence in the company’s long-term potential, several analysts are unconvinced.
Analysts Concerned About the Path Ahead
On October 19,
Citi analyst Itay Michaeli reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla stock and lowered the price target to $255 from $271 following the Q3 print.
The analyst said that Tesla’s Q3 performance was a “somewhat worse outcome” compared to his neutral-to-slightly negative expectations. He noted that the company’s tone on the conference call was “noticeably more cautious” and that he prefers to be on the sidelines until there is a more attractive entry point with visible near-term fundamental catalysts.
Further, on Monday,
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi reiterated a Sell rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $150, contending that the Street’s Fiscal 2024 consensus margin and volume estimates remain very high. He expects deliveries of 2.15 million units next year with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.59 versus analysts’ estimates of 2.3 million deliveries and EPS of $3.30.
Sacconaghi pointed out that throughout the year, Tesla bulls have been “calling for margins to bottom as ongoing cost reductions increasingly offset the impact of price cuts.” However, Tesla’s margins have missed analysts’ estimates and declined sequentially in the first three quarters this year.
The analyst believes that the Musk-led EV maker will likely deliver lower margins and also disappoint on the volume front. He added that it remains unclear if Tesla can further slash prices enough to boost demand without turning free cash flow negative.
What is the Target Price for Tesla?
Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 14 Buys, 14 Holds, and five Sells. The average price target of $252.61 implies 28% upside potential.
Conclusion
The notable decline in Tesla stock over the past one month, mainly following the company’s third-quarter results, clearly reflects the effect of macro challenges and declining margins on investor sentiment. Several analysts believe that near-term pressures might limit the upside in the stock in the days ahead.
Disclosure
Shares of Tesla fell about 5% on Monday after key supplier Panasonic Holdings said it cut automotive battery production in the September quarter, cementing concerns of a global slowdown in electric-vehicle (EV) sales.
Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) dropped below $200 today for the first time since late May. The stock plunged as much as 6% early on Monday and was still trading down 4.4% as of 12:24 p.m. ET.
Wall Street's main indexes rose on Monday, boosted by megacap growth stocks ahead of a busy week of earnings and interest rate decisions from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index entered into correction territory (down 10% from the peak) last week thanks to a steep drop in the big tech stocks. This marks the 70th correction in its 52-year history. The so-called "Magnif
Chipmaker Onsemi forecast a tepid fourth quarter and cut about 900 jobs, sparking fears that weak electric vehicle (EV) demand has begun to hurt orders for its chips from the auto sector and sending its shares tumbling 18.3% on Monday.
The electric vehicle (EV) sector represents a transformative segment of the automotive industry. It is rapidly growing due to increasing environmental concerns and technological advancements. Companies in this sector range from established automakers introducing EV models to inno
Ford Motor said on Monday it would add more of Tesla's Superchargers to its electric-vehicle charging network, higher than previously forecast, as automakers tap into the EV leader's sprawling charger network to expand the range of their cars.
Ford Motor Co said on Monday it
would add over 15,000 of Tesla's Superchargers to its electric
vehicle charging network, up from its earlier estimate of 12,000
chargers.
(Reporting by Abhijith Ganapavaram in Bengaluru; Editing by
Shilpi Majumdar)
((Abhijith.G@thomsonreuters.com | X: https://twitter.com/abhijithg4;
+91-9019785574;))
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