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Tesla (TSLA): The Battle of the EV Trucks Begins
On Monday, Tesla (TSLA) celebrated 10 years as a publicly traded company. The previous decade has provided enough reasons for a celebration, not least is the EV pioneer’s position as the most successful auto stock since its debu. Shares have skyrocketed more than 4,000% since going public.
Tesla has showed no signs of slowing down, either. It crept back over the $1,000 per share mark again on its 10-year anniversary, following Elon Musk’s suggestion that a second quarter loss wasn't inevitable, after all.
This remains to be seen when Tesla reports its Q2 vehicle deliveries this week. What has already been proved beyond doubt is Tesla’s ability to prove the naysayers wrong time and again.
The EV pioneer is battle hardened by now, but according to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, another battle is about to commence.
EV truck upstart and rival Nikola (NKLA) announced it had started taking reservations for its EV pick-up truck – the Nikola Badger - expected to hit the road in 2022. Ives argues the Badger “clearly goes after the EV leader Tesla with its Cybertruck design.”
The 5-star analyst believes there is strong demand for Nikola’s new offering; the new player has built a “formidable list of preorder customers.”
However, the Badger will go up against the Cybertruck, for which Ives estimates there is already a “staggering” amount of pre-orders “north of 650,000 with momentum building for this latest Musk brainchild.”
Whether there’s room for both in the pickup market remains to be seen. Preorder activity for the Badger over the next few months will make it easier to gauge the impact that the new trucks can have on a market dominated by Ford and GM, with roughly 3 million pickup trucks sold every year in the US.
Ives argues Tesla’s pick-up truck will have a role to play if his long-term forecasts are to be met.
“Ultimately for Tesla's stock to hit our $1,500 bull case, one key component will be future success on the pick-up market, Model Y, as well as new versions/models to supplement the growth of its linchpin Model 3 design globally,” Ives summarized.
To this end, Ives reiterated a Neutral rating on Tesla shares along with a $1,000 price target. This target suggests 11% downside potential from current levels. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here)
It appears the Wedbush analyst is in sync with the rest of the Street. TSLA's Hold consensus rating is based on 7 Buy ratings, 10 Holds and 9 Sells. The bears are in the driver's seat, as the $755.10 price target represents downside of nearly 33% over the next 12 months. (See Tesla stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Will Tesla Match Q1 Deliveries? This Analyst Crunches the Numbers
Tesla (TSLA) shares have put together an impressive run in 2020, to say the least. The market has reacted favorably to reports of strong demand for Model 3s in China, a strong Q1 report and a penchant for tech growth stocks. As a result, shares have skyrocketed by a massive 158% since the turn of the year.
Later this week, Tesla will announce 2Q20 delivery and production numbers and Wall Street will be keen to gauge the coronavirus’ impact on operations. Along with shuttered businesses around the world, Tesla’s sole US factory in Fremont, California, was shut down for much of the quarter.
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner expects Tesla to hit 76,000 deliveries in Q2, of which 60,000 are Model 3s, 8,000 Models S+X and 8,000 Model Ys. Consensus expects Tesla to deliver 67,000 vehicles.
Breaking down Tesla’s main regions, the analyst estimates that in the US, Tesla will notch up 15,000 deliveries, down by 60% year-over-year, and an additional 10,000 in Europe (4,000 in the UK), and close to 30,000 in China, with South Korea and Canada making up the bulk of the rest.
The estimates indicate a drop from the prior quarter. In Q1, Tesla reported delivery of 88,400 vehicles, in what amounted to its best ever performance.
The weaker volumes are on Rosner’s mind when forecasting 2Q results. Rosner said, “We trim our 2Q revenue from $5.03bn to $4.97bn (also reflecting intra-quarter price cuts in the US) and lower auto GM from 13.9% to 13.5% (16.6% ex credit), leading to EPS of -$1.77 vs. prior -$1.66. This compares to consensus $4.8bn and -$1.61. For free cash flow, we expect a burn of about $500m mainly dragged down by A/P, largely unchanged from prior expectations.”
All in all, Rosner keeps a Hold rating on Tesla, yet nudges the price target up from $850 to $900. Therefore, Rosner expects shares to drop by 17% over the coming months. (To watch Rosner’s track record, click here)
Rosner's colleagues are reading from the same manual. Consensus rates Tesla a Hold, based on 7 buys, 9 Holds and 10 Sell ratings. However, sentiment on the Street is rather more bearish as the average price target comes in at $727.65, representing potential downside of 32% from current levels. (See Tesla stock analysis on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.