Rivian Automotive (
NASDAQ:
RIVN
) certainly isn't the most famous or well-capitalized electric vehicle (EV) maker. Yet, I believe Rivian's shareholders should stay on track and be patient. I am bullish on RIVN stock, but only for the long term, as Rivian's road to recovery will take some time.
Headquartered in California, Rivian Automotive manufactures EVs, including electric commercial delivery vans. Believe it or not, Tesla (
NASDAQ:
TSLA
) CEO Elon Musk predicted last year that Rivian would go bankrupt.
Of course, Musk's dire prediction about Rivian should be taken with a grain of salt. After all, he's the head of a competing EV manufacturer. Still, Rivian has had its fair share of challenges, but a fresh round of data indicates that the automaker is doing better than the experts had anticipated.
Rivian Looks Beyond Amazon Partnership
In the history of the company's existence, Rivian's biggest win is probably a collaboration with e-commerce and product delivery giant Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
). What could possibly be better for Rivian than an agreement to manufacture electric commercial delivery vans for Amazon?
Just that deal, by itself, could sustain Rivian for a long time. On the other hand, it's understandable if Rivian's management doesn't want to be limited by its Amazon partnership.
Thus, it makes sense that Rivian is now
allowing companies other than Amazon to purchase the automaker's custom-designed Rivian Commercial Van. To quote Rivian Automotive CEO RJ Scaringe, "We’re excited to open sales of our electric commercial van to more businesses."
Don't get the wrong idea here. Scaringe and Rivian will still work closely with Amazon. "Amazon is, and will remain, a key partner for us," the Rivian CEO assured.
In other words, Rivian Automotive will still help Amazon achieve its goal of decarbonizing last-mile package delivery, yet the automaker can also generate revenue by selling the Rivian Commercial Van to other businesses. You must agree; it's just great news all around for Rivian.
Rivian Ramps Up Its EV Production Target
Speaking of great news, Rivian recently published its shareholder letter for 2023's third quarter. Perhaps the best part of the letter is the disclosure that Rivian is raising its full-year 2023 EV production outlook.
Previously, Rivian had guided for production of 52,000 units. Now, the company
expects to produce 54,000 units for the year. Rivian's management cited "the progress experienced on [its] production lines, the ramp of [its] in-house motor line, and the supply chain outlook" as reasons for the raised EV production guidance.
That's not the only positive news. Rivian also improved its adjusted EBITDA guidance, citing "progress on cost management" while also lowering the company's capital expenditures (CapEx) guidance.
What about Rivian's third-quarter 2023 performance, though? No worries there, as the company produced 16,304 EVs, a quarterly record for the company. Plus, that figure demonstrated excellent progress compared to the production of 13,992 vehicles in the second quarter and only 7,363 units in 2022's third quarter.
Musk would probably scoff at those production figures. However, Tesla also had to grow its operations over time. Currently, I believe there's no reason to assume that Rivian Automotive will go bankrupt.
Getting back to the Q3-2023 results, Rivian reported
revenue of $1.34 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.31 billion. Meanwhile, Rivian posted a quarterly
per-share loss of $1.19. This is certainly better than Wall Street's consensus forecast that Rivian would lose $1.34 per share in the third quarter, and it's also better than last year's loss of $1.57 per share.
It might bother some investors that Rivian Automotive is still a money-losing business. Musk would certainly point this fact out, but let's not be too harsh. Improvement, not perfection, is the name of the game. That's why patience is essential if you're going to invest in RIVN stock.
Is RIVN Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
On TipRanks, RIVN comes in as a Moderate Buy based on 12 Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell rating assigned by analysts in the past three months. The
average Rivian Automotive stock price target is $26.11, implying 54.5% upside potential.
Conclusion: Should You Consider RIVN Stock?
There's definitely a degree of risk if you're going to invest in Rivian stock. The company isn't profitable at the moment, but at least Rivian is doing better than the analyst community had anticipated.
It's also notable that Rivian Automotive is raising its vehicle production outlook. This suggests that Rivian's management is confident about the automaker's future prospects. Therefore, if you don't mind taking a chance on a still-growing EV startup, feel free to consider RIVN stock.
Disclosure
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest daily percentage gains since April 27 on Tuesday as softer-than-expected inflation data supported the view that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates.
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Tuesday, led by the Nasdaq, as softer-than-expected inflation data supported the view that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates.
Several hedge funds expanded their bets on big technology stocks including Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms even as these companies stumbled some during the third quarter after having fueled broad market gains this year, new regulatory filings show.
Tech stocks rose late Tuesday afternoon with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) adding 2.1% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index jumping 3.7%.
U.S. stocks rose sharply on Tuesday, led by a more than 2% gain in the Nasdaq, as softer-than-expected inflation data supported the view that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates.
Chipmaker Qualcomm (
NASDAQ:
QCOM
) had a difficult year, owing to macroeconomic pressures weighing on consumer spending. However, with the global smartphone market on the mend, things are starting to look up for QCOM. Wall Street also remains hopeful of Qualcomm's future, given management's belief in stabilizing market dynamics. Also, AI-driven opportunities may improve Qualcomm's fundamentals in the coming years, which is why I am bullish on QCOM stock.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Strained Qualcomm’s Fiscal 2023
Qualcomm's success has relied on its innovative chipsets, particularly the Snapdragon series. These chipsets power a vast range of devices, from smartphones, tablets, and wearables to automotive systems.
However, Fiscal 2023 turned out to be not so positive for the chipmaker, led by a slowdown in smartphone sales. Rising inflation has put a damper on consumer spending on discretionary products such as electronics and smartphones. Its latest fourth-quarter Fiscal 2023 results were also gloomy, disappointing investors. The stock has gained a mere
18.2% YTD, which is not great compared to the massive gains its peers in the semiconductor industry have achieved so far in 2023.
In Q4, its revenue declined by 24% year-over-year to $8.7 billion, beating consensus estimates by $146 million. Meanwhile, earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter fell by 35% to $2.02, surpassing estimates by $0.11. For the full Fiscal year, revenue and earnings declined by 19% and 33%, respectively.
Notably, Qualcomm’s operations are distinguished by two segments: QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies), which represents its chip business, and QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing), which covers its licensing business. In Fiscal 2023, QCT accounted for about 85% of its total revenue.
Let’s break down its revenue for the QCT segment (chip sales). The market’s lukewarm demand for new smartphones led to a 22% decline in Handset chip sales in Fiscal 2023, while its IoT (Internet of Things) chip sales dropped 19.2% year-over-year. Qualcomm's Automotive chip sales, on the other hand, stood out with a 24% increase from Fiscal 2022.
As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Digital Chassis remains an essential part of this digital transformation. In the Q4 earnings call, CEO Cristiano Renno Amon highlighted the company’s new long-term strategic deal with Amazon’s (
NASDAQ:
AMZN
) AWS (Amazon Web Services) "to enable automakers to integrate cloud technologies into their vehicle development life cycle.”
What’s more, Qualcomm is also a dividend stock that has a
dividend yield of 2.6%, significantly higher than the S&P 500’s (
SPX
) average yield of 1.6%. The company generated $9.8 billion in free cash flow in Fiscal 2023, out of which it used $3.5 billion to pay dividends and $3 billion to repurchase shares. It also ended Fiscal 2023 with a strong balance sheet with $11.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
Fiscal 2024 Could Turn Around QCOM's Fortunes
Going into 2024, according to
International Data Corporation, the global smartphone market is expected to recover by 4.5% year-over-year. This recovery could help boost demand for Qualcomm’s products.
While other chip makers like Nvidia (
NASDAQ:
NVDA
) and Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:
AMD
) are ramping up their AI efforts, Qualcomm is raising the stakes in the game as well.
In its annual Snapdragon Summit event in October, the company unveiled two new generative AI-integrated chips, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 for smartphones and the Snapdragon X Elite for the personal computer (PC) market. For improved audio experiences, it also unveiled the AI-powered S7 and S7 Pro Gen 1 sound platforms.
Qualcomm’s efforts to stay current with the evolving tech industry by incorporating AI into all its products and services are positioning it for more growth. Furthermore, in the fourth quarter, Qualcomm also announced a deal with Apple (
NASDAQ:
AAPL
) to supply Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF Systems for smartphone launches from 2024-26.
Looking ahead, management sees signs of stabilization in the demand for 3G, 4G, and 5G handsets worldwide. Hence, the company now forecasts Q1 Fiscal 2024 revenue in the range of $9.1 billion to $9.9 billion and EPS between $2.25 and $2.45.
If Qualcomm meets the upper end of the guidance, that would mean 5% revenue and 3.4% earnings growth over the year-ago period. Along with an amazing sequential growth of 14% in revenue and 21.3% in earnings, it would also signal the global smartphone market's recovery. Meanwhile, analysts forecast revenue of $9.5 billion and EPS of $2.36 for Fiscal Q1 2024.
Although Qualcomm did not provide full-year guidance for Fiscal 2024, the outlook for the start of the fiscal year appears encouraging. Analysts foresee its revenue and earnings to show year-over-year growth of 5.5% and 9.3%, respectively. Currently, Qualcomm trades at 13.4 times its projected 2024 earnings. For a growth stock with AI capabilities, its valuation seems fair.
Is
Qualcomm a Buy, According to Analysts?
Following Qualcomm’s fourth-quarter results, TD Cowen analyst
Matt Ramsay reaffirmed his Buy rating on the stock with a target price of $145.00. The analyst finds Qualcomm's
successful foray into the PC space and its commanding presence in the Android handset market to be impressive. Additionally,
DZ Bank also upgraded QCOM stock to Buy from Hold, assigning a price target of $140.
Meanwhile, after QCOM's Q4 earnings, JPMorgan (
NYSE:
JPM
) analyst Samik Chatterjee now believes Qualcomm “
finally reported an end to the downward spiral” with its rosy outlook for Q1 Fiscal 2024. The analyst has a Buy rating on the stock and raised its price target from $135 to $140.
Out of the 21 analysts covering Qualcomm stock, 14 recommend a Buy, six recommend a Hold, and one recommends a Sell, giving the stock a Moderate Buy rating. The
average QCOM stock price target is $135.83, implying 7% upside potential over the next 12 months.
The Takeaway
Qualcomm still plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of technology as we delve deeper into the 5G, IoT, and AI era. Its relentless pursuit of innovation, coupled with its diverse product portfolio and improving market dynamics, may all contribute to stronger revenue and profit growth in the years to come. For this reason, I remain cautiously optimistic that good days are ahead for Qualcomm.
Disclosure
In the wake of a historic bear market of 2022, Wall Street appears to have turned the corner. After languishing for much of last year, 2023 is setting the stage for an epic bull run.
Tech stocks were higher Tuesday afternoon, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) adding 1.9% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index gaining 3.4%.
U.S. stock indexes rallied on Tuesday as cooler-than-expected inflation data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve was done raising interest rates and could start cutting them next year.
Investor sentiment is turning positive, as this month’s significant market gains roll on. The pace of inflation continues to decelerate, easing a major headwind, and the
S&P 500 is up almost 17% year-to-date.
Watching the market situation for Goldman Sachs, chief US equity strategist David Kostin notes that the sound third quarter earnings have provided additional support for the index’s recent gains, writing, “S&P 500 3Q earnings results were stronger than expected and represented the first quarter of year/year EPS growth since 3Q 2022. EPS grew by +4% year/year and +10% excluding Energy. Sequential margin expansion represented the bright spot during earnings season, while sales results beat expectations by a smaller magnitude. Corporates reported a continued broad-based slowdown in cash spending.”
But it’s no secret that this year’s market gains have been driven by the tech sector. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has a 34% year-to-date gain. However, those gains have not been evenly distributed. Seven mega-cap tech giants, dubbed the ‘Magnificent Seven,’ have led the way.
However, even among the 'Magnificent Seven,' the potential for gains is not evenly spread. According to 5-star analysts at Goldman Sachs,
Amazon (NASDAQ:
AMZN)
and
Nvidia (NASDAQ:
NVDA)
are primed for much larger gains than their peers going forward, and their stories are based on reduced worry in an uncertain time. Here are the latest details on these two tech leaders from the TipRanks databanks, along with comments from the Goldman analysts.
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Amazon
We’ll start with Amazon, a company that started out in the ‘90s as an online bookseller, survived the dot-com bubble-bust, and has since become the world’s largest online retailer. The company built its success on a complete reimagining of the e-commerce promise – giving customers access to an unmatched variety of products and offering home delivery as early as the next day. With a market cap just under $1.5 trillion, Amazon is the world’s fourth-largest publicly traded company.
Growing from its extraordinary scale, Amazon has expanded from online retail into numerous other niches. The company has its hands in everything, from cloud computing to online television streaming, and is making use of AI to improve its service offerings on many of these products. AI has already been integrated into the AWS cloud, and is also used in Amazon’s new software code development tool, its new chatbot, and its image building platform. While these services are revenue generators, the company can afford to pursue them due to the size and scope of its retail successes.
That success brought Amazon solid beats in its recent 3Q23 financial release. The company’s top line came to $143.1 billion, up nearly 13% year-over-year and beating the forecast by over $1.5 billion. Amazon’s year-over-year sales gains included 11% in the North American retail segment, 16% in international retail, and 12% for AWS. At the bottom line, Amazon reported an EPS of 94 cents per diluted share, compared to 28 cents in the prior-year quarter. The 3Q23 EPS came in 35 cents better than had been anticipated.
As a result, Amazon shares are up 66% so far this year, strongly outperforming the broader market.
For Goldman Sachs' 5-star analyst, Eric Sheridan, this adds up to a long-term growth story. He writes of the stock, “Looking over a multi-year timeframe, we reiterate our view that Amazon will compound a mix of solid revenue trajectory with expanding margins as they deliver yield/returns on multiple year investment cycles. After trading in a range (& underperforming the broader market) for most of the past 2-3 years, we see AMZN as well positioned for future outperformance as eCommerce margins continue a trajectory of scaling over headwinds created in recent years, as its advertising business continues to achieve scale and as AWS can still benefit from a long-tailed structural growth opportunity in the shifting needs of enterprise customers (while producing a balance of growth and margins).”
Looking ahead, Sheridan sees Amazon as a sound investment by any measure: “In summary, we continue to see Amazon positioned as a leader in all aspects of secular growth within our Internet coverage (eCommerce, digital advertising, media consumption, aggregated subscription offerings & cloud computing).”
The analyst goes on to rate Amazon shares as a Buy, and he sets a $190 price target to point toward a one-year gain of 29%. (To watch Sheridan’s track record,
click here)
The tech giants have no problem gathering plenty of analyst reviews – and Amazon has 40, all positive, for a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating. Amazon shares are trading for $146.81, and their $175.51 average price target implies an upside of 19% in the coming year. (See
Amazon stock forecast
)
Nvidia Corporation
The next tech giant we’ll look at is Nvidia, a leader in the essential semiconductor chip industry. Nvidia is another of the market’s multi-trillion-dollar companies, with a market cap of $1.2 trillion and huge – and growing – demand for its high-end, AI-capable GPU chips. Nvidia originally developed these chips for the online gaming niche, but the high processing capacity of the company’s GPUs made them eminently suitable for professional graphic design use as well as later for data center and AI applications.
Nvidia got a major boost one year ago when its customer OpenAI launched the generative AI chatbot, ChatGPT. That powered a sudden boom in the AI industry, with a consequent burst of demand for Nvidia’s products. Nvidia received some additional welcome support earlier this year when OpenAI announced that it will need up to 10,000 new GPUs by next summer, just to maintain ChatGPT’s performance levels.
While AI gets the headlines, Nvidia’s largest business comes from its data center segment. In the last reported quarter, fiscal 2Q24, Nvidia brought in more than $10 billion in data center revenue, the bulk of the company’s $13.5 billion quarterly top line. That total was more than $2.4 billion above the forecast, while Nvidia’s earnings, at $2.70 per share in non-GAAP measures, came in 61 cents ahead.
Nvidia will release its fiscal 3Q24 numbers next week, and the Street is expecting to see $15.99 billion in revenue with a non-GAAP EPS of $3.37.
Powerful demand is the key here, for Goldman analyst Toshiya Hari. The 5-star stock pro writes of Nvidia’s shares, “Look for NVDA to maintain its status as the accelerated computing industry standard for the foreseeable future given its competitive moat and the urgency with which customers are developing and deploying increasingly complex AI models. And a strong and broadening demand profile in the Data Center, plus an improving supply backdrop should support sustained revenue growth through CY2024.”
Quantifying his stance, Hari gives NVDA shares a Buy rating. He has set his price target at $605, which implies a 23% upside for the next 12 months. (To watch Hari’s track record,
click here)
All in all, Nvidia has picked up 38 recent analyst reviews, and these have a lopsided split of 37 to 1 in favor of the Buys over Holds. The shares are currently selling for $491.41, and their $647.32 average price target suggests an increase of ~32% on the one-year horizon. (See
Nvidia stock forecast
)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’
Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
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