CoinDesk Crypto

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Golden Cross Gives Little Relief as Bitcoin Risks Fall Below 2020 Bullish Trendline

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Craig Wright Doubles Down on Satoshi Claim, Says Bitcoin Core Infringes His ‘Database Rights’

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Derivatives Exchange Deribit Launches Daily Ether Options
• Speculation Undermines Crypto Prices and Utility, Says Bank of England Senior Economist

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Craig Wright Doubles Down on Satoshi Claim, Says Bitcoin Core Infringes His ‘Database Rights’

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Derivatives Exchange Deribit Launches Daily Ether Options

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Speculation Undermines Crypto Prices and Utility, Says Bank of England Senior Economist
• Low-Volume Bitcoin Pullback Stalls at Price Support Near $9.6K

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Derivatives Exchange Deribit Launches Daily Ether Options

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Speculation Undermines Crypto Prices and Utility, Says Bank of England Senior Economist

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Low-Volume Bitcoin Pullback Stalls at Price Support Near $9.6K
• From Crypto Self-Custody to Music Rights, This Mother-Daughter Dev Team Does It All

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Low-Volume Bitcoin Pullback Stalls at Price Support Near $9.6K

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: From Crypto Self-Custody to Music Rights, This Mother-Daughter Dev Team Does It All

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• For Crypto Miners, Bitcoin’s Halving Could Mean a Doubling in Costs
• Bitcoin Closing on Daily Golden Cross That Could Bring Boost to 2020 Price Rally

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: From Crypto Self-Custody to Music Rights, This Mother-Daughter Dev Team Does It All

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: For Crypto Miners, Bitcoin’s Halving Could Mean a Doubling in Costs

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Closing on Daily Golden Cross That Could Bring Boost to 2020 Price Rally
• US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: For Crypto Miners, Bitcoin’s Halving Could Mean a Doubling in Costs

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Bitcoin Closing on Daily Golden Cross That Could Bring Boost to 2020 Price Rally

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer
• Here’s How to Inspect Bitcoin’s Next (Likely) Major Upgrade Yourself

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Bitcoin Closing on Daily Golden Cross That Could Bring Boost to 2020 Price Rally

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Here’s How to Inspect Bitcoin’s Next (Likely) Major Upgrade Yourself
• $400 Drop: Bitcoin Faces Further Downside After Rejection at Price Hurdle

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Here’s How to Inspect Bitcoin’s Next (Likely) Major Upgrade Yourself

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• $400 Drop: Bitcoin Faces Further Downside After Rejection at Price Hurdle
• Coinbase Revives Margin Trading, With Conservative (for Crypto) 3x Leverage

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Here’s How to Inspect Bitcoin’s Next (Likely) Major Upgrade Yourself

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: $400 Drop: Bitcoin Faces Further Downside After Rejection at Price Hurdle

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Coinbase Revives Margin Trading, With Conservative (for Crypto) 3x Leverage
• Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: $400 Drop: Bitcoin Faces Further Downside After Rejection at Price Hurdle

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Coinbase Revives Margin Trading, With Conservative (for Crypto) 3x Leverage

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K
• Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Coinbase Revives Margin Trading, With Conservative (for Crypto) 3x Leverage

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350
• Muneeb Ali Explains Blockstack’s Big Bet on Bitcoin

• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Muneeb Ali Explains Blockstack’s Big Bet on Bitcoin
• Monday’s Price Drop Didn’t Break Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Drops Over 3% Despite Golden Cross and Bank Calls for More US Stimulus

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Rebounds to $9,500 After Scary Sell-Off

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Price Drops 7% in an Hour After Bitcoin Sees a Ghost
• 50 BTC Just Moved for First Time Since 2009 – But It Doesn’t Look Like Satoshi

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Rebounds to $9,500 After Scary Sell-Off

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Price Drops 7% in an Hour After Bitcoin Sees a Ghost

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• 50 BTC Just Moved for First Time Since 2009 – But It Doesn’t Look Like Satoshi
• Bitcoin Options: Deribit Exchange Sees Record Open Interest of $1B

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Price Drops 7% in an Hour After Bitcoin Sees a Ghost

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: 50 BTC Just Moved for First Time Since 2009 – But It Doesn’t Look Like Satoshi

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Options: Deribit Exchange Sees Record Open Interest of $1B
• Team Behind Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Explains Shutdown

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Options: Deribit Exchange Sees Record Open Interest of $1B

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Team Behind Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Explains Shutdown

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• This Bitcoin Documentary From Africa Is Streaming on Amazon Prime
• Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Options: Deribit Exchange Sees Record Open Interest of $1B

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Paused Due to Poorly Tested Redemption Code

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• This Bitcoin Documentary From Africa Is Streaming on Amazon Prime
• Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Paused Due to Poorly Tested Redemption Code

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: This Bitcoin Documentary From Africa Is Streaming on Amazon Prime

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year
• This Metric Shows Bitcoin Is Undervalued Even After 150% Price Rally

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: This Metric Shows Bitcoin Is Undervalued Even After 150% Price Rally

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Iran Moves to Restrict Crypto Exchanges Under ‘Currency Smuggling’ Laws
• First Mover: Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment Feels Like Post-Halving Easing Party

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: This Metric Shows Bitcoin Is Undervalued Even After 150% Price Rally

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Iran Moves to Restrict Crypto Exchanges Under ‘Currency Smuggling’ Laws
• First Mover: Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment Feels Like Post-Halving Easing Party