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The Invesco Dynamic Multifactor ETF (
BATS:OMFL
) is a differentiated ETF with a strong track record plus a “Perfect 10”
Smart Score from TipRanks’ proprietary quantitative scoring system. While OMFL underperformed the broader market in 2023, I’m willing to bet that it will return to winning ways, given that it outperformed the broader market during the four prior years.
I’m bullish on this popular $6.3 billion ETF from Invesco based on its solid track record, reasonable expense ratio, diversified portfolio, attractive valuation, and perfect Smart Score.
What Is the OMFL ETF’s Strategy?
According to OMFL’s sponsor, Invesco, OMFL “is based on the Russell 1000 Invesco Dynamic Multifactor Index.” The Russell 1000 is an index that measures the performance of 1,000 of the largest stocks in the United States. OMFL will invest at least 80% of its assets in this index. The stocks within the index are “assigned a multi-factor score from one of five investment styles: value, momentum, quality, low volatility, and size.”
Depending on what part of the economic cycle the index provider believes we are in (recovery, expansion, slowdown, or contraction), the managers will emphasize the selection of stocks that score highly based on two to three of these factors. This assessment is based on economic and monetary indicators such as manufacturing business surveys, labor market conditions, monetary conditions, and consumer sentiment surveys.
This is meant to favor factor configurations that have “historically outperformed other factors in certain stages of the economic cycle.”
Invesco makes a decision on what stage of the economic cycle we are in on a monthly basis, and the factors are applied accordingly.
Essentially, OMFL takes the stocks within the Russell 1000 and tilts its selections toward stocks that exhibit the attributes it sees as most favorable during the current economic cycle in order to optimize its portfolio.
Strong Overall Track Record
This intensive approach has led to solid results since OMFL’s launch. While OMFL’s annualized three-year return of 5.3% (as of April 30) is fairly underwhelming, its annualized five-year return of 13.7% (as of the same date) is a lot better, and so is its 13.6% annualized return since its inception (2017).
OMFL has underperformed the S&P 500 (
SPX
), as represented by the Vanguard S&P 500 (
NYSEARCA:VOO
), over the three-year time horizon (where VOO has returned 8.0% on an annualized basis). But it slightly outperformed it over the five-year time frame (where VOO has returned 13.2% on an annualized basis).
With the exception of 2022, when the entire market was in the grips of a downturn, OMFL has produced some excellent results on a yearly basis in recent years.
In 2019, OMFL knocked it out of the park with an exceptional 35.6% total return, outperforming VOO, which had a nice 31.4% return of its own. OMFL followed this up with a 21.0% return in 2020, slightly outperforming VOO’s 18.3% gain. In 2021, OMFL returned an excellent 29.0%, narrowly beating VOO’s 28.8% return.
Then, the fund lost 14.0% during the 2022 bear market, while VOO fell further, with an 18.2% loss for the year. Last year, OMFL bounced back with a 21.5% return, although it wasn’t able to keep up with VOO’s 26.3% increase during the rampant 2023 bull market.
So, while OMFL has underperformed the broader market on an annualized three-year basis and underperformed the market in 2023, it outperformed it during the four years prior to that and held up better during 2022’s bear market. Therefore, I am willing to give the fund a mulligan for 2023 and bet that it will return to winning ways.
Diversified and Inexpensive Portfolio
With positions in 376 stocks, OMFL is quite diversified, and with just 8.7% of the fund’s assets allocated to its top 10 holdings, concentration risk isn’t a concern here. Top holding Western Digital (
NASDAQ:WDC
) has a weighting of just 1.0%.
You can take a look at
OMFL’s top 10 holdings using the table below from TipRanks’ holdings tool.
Looking at OMFL’s current portfolio, it appears that the fund is taking on more of a value tilt at the moment. It includes homebuilders,
energy stocks, financials, airlines, and legacy tech companies in its top 10 holdings at the expense of the magnificent seven or other
big tech stocks, which are more growth-oriented and have higher valuations.
The numbers back this up. The price-to-earnings ratio of OMFL’s holdings is an attractive 13.4x. This is significantly lower than the valuation of the S&P 500, which currently trades at 23.2x earnings.
This inexpensive valuation makes OMFL attractive and should give it more of a margin of safety and downside protection than the broader market.
Six of OMFL’s top 10 holdings feature Outperform-equivalent Smart Scores. The Smart Score is a proprietary quantitative stock scoring system created by TipRanks. It gives stocks a score from 1 to 10 based on eight market key factors. A score of 8 or above is equivalent to an Outperform rating. The score is data-driven and does not involve any human intervention.
OMFL itself features a 10 out of 10 ETF Smart Score, placing it in good company
among other strong ETFs to receive this venerable rating.
Reasonable Expense Ratio
OMFL charges a relatively reasonable expense ratio of 0.29%. While it isn’t as cheap as those of some of the mega-cap index funds out there, it is still just about half the average expense ratio for all ETFs (0.57%). It’s also worth pointing out that this isn’t a bad expense ratio for an ETF that runs a more complex strategy and has more turnover.
This 0.29% expense ratio means that an investor in the fund will pay $29 in fees on a $10,000 investment annually. Assuming the fund returns 5% per year going forward, this investor will pay $368 in fees over a 10-year time horizon.
Is OMFL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, OMFL earns a Hold consensus rating based on 494 Buys, 217 Holds, and 34 Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The
average OMFL stock price target of $64.31 implies 18.3% upside potential.
The Takeaway: A Solid Choice
I’m bullish on the OMFL ETF based on its diversified portfolio and the attractive valuations of the stocks within it. I’m also bullish on OMFL because it is one of the few ETFs to earn a 10 out of 10 Smart Score from TipRanks’ proprietary rating system.
The ETF also has a reasonable expense ratio for a fund running an intricate strategy. While it lagged the market in 2023 and currently lags it on a three-year annualized basis, it has a strong overall track record. It has slightly outperformed the broader market over the past five years and produced an admirable double-digit annualized return since its inception.
Disclosure
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Occidental Petroleum (
NYSE:OXY
) is an energy stock in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (
NYSE:BRK.B
) portfolio. Berkshire owns 248 million shares of OXY, indicating a 28% stake in the company, which is quite sizeable. I believe this Warren Buffett stock is a good buy in May 2024. I am bullish on OXY stock due to its acquisition of CrownRock, expanding chemicals business, and massive potential for low-carbon products.
Berkshire has increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum since 2020, and it is now worth roughly $16 billion. The company accounts for 4.4% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio and is one of its largest portfolio companies in 2024.
Warren Buffett is arguably the greatest stock market investor the world has ever seen. Also called the Oracle of Omaha, Buffett has a proven history of identifying quality undervalued stocks, allowing him to comfortably beat the broader markets over time. Due to his excellent track record, Wall Street closely follows Buffett’s investments.
An Overview of Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. It has three primary business segments that include the following:
Oil and Gas: It explores, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids, and natural gas.
Chemical: The segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals and vinyls.
Midstream and Marketing: It gathers, processes, transports, and stores oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, natural gas, and power.
How Did Occidental Petroleum Stock Perform in Q1 of 2024?
In Q1, Occidental Petroleum generated adjusted earnings of $0.63 per share,
higher than estimates of $0.58 per share. It reported revenue of $6.2 billion, a decline of 12.7% year-over-year. Occidental Petroleum ended Q1 with $1.3 billion of unrestricted cash and delivered a free cash flow of $700 million.
It expects total production to increase between 1.23 million to 1.27 million BoE (barrels of oil equivalent) per day in Q2, above the 1.17 million BoE per day in the March quarter. The midpoint of its production guidance for Q2 will be its highest quarterly production since 2021.
Investors should note that oil and gas stocks are cyclical, and their earnings are tied to energy prices, which can be very volatile. It suggests that earnings for energy stocks will move significantly higher when oil prices are elevated. Several energy companies, including Occidental Petroleum, reported record earnings in 2022 due to higher prices.
Alternatively, Occidental Petroleum (and its peers) should be positioned to generate enough cash flow to sustain its operations, reinvest in capital projects, and maintain its dividend yield, even when commodity prices move lower.
While Occidental Petroleum saw an erosion in its bottom line, it surpassed earnings estimates in Q1 and reported positive free cash flow amid an uncertain macro environment.
OXY’s Big-Ticket Acquisition
In December 2023, Occidental Petroleum disclosed plans to acquire CrownRock for $12 billion via a combination of cash and stock. This purchase should further bolster Occidental’s presence in the Permian Basin.
Occidental Petroleum expects the acquisition to add $1 billion to its free cash flow, assuming oil prices average $70 per barrel. Today, crude oil prices are hovering around $80, indicating that free cash flow should be over $1.1 billion, significantly moving the needle for Occidental Petroleum.
The expansion in free cash flow would help OXY repay its debt and enhance shareholder returns in 2024 and beyond. Investors should note that Occidental Petroleum is issuing over $9 billion in debt to fund the acquisition while taking over CrownRock’s existing debt of $1.2 billion.
OxyChem Is a Key Driver
As noted above, Occidental Petroleum has a chemical business, which allows it to offset a portion of earnings volatility associated with daily swings in oil prices. The OxyChem business has started to generate stable cash flows for the company, as Occidental Petroleum continues to expand the capacity for this segment.
In its investor presentation, Occidental Petroleum stated that it is modernizing and expanding its facility in Texas and allocated capital to enhance multiple plants on the Gulf Coast. These enhancements should be completed in the next 24 months and should increase earnings between $300 million and $400 million each year.
A Low-Carbon Platform
Additionally, Occidental Petroleum is building a low-carbon energy solutions platform. It has allocated $600 million in 2024 to build a direct air capture (DAC) plant in Texas, which is on track to begin operations in mid-2025. The DAC plant will capture 500,000 tons of carbon emissions each year, which can be commercialized.
Occidental Petroleum plowed in more than $1 billion to acquire Carbon Engineering in 2023, the company behind the DAC technology. The carbon capture business may help bring in significant revenue and earnings in the coming decades. In fact, Occidental expects earnings from the carbon capture business to be similar to its oil and gas business over time.
Is Debt a Concern?
Occidental Petroleum ended Q1 with
long-term debt of $19 billion. This number might rise to $29 billion once the CrownRock acquisition is closed. However, the company announced a divesture program, aiming to sell assets worth between $4.5 billion and $6 billion. The proceeds of the divesture will be used to deleverage its balance sheet, as Occidental Petroleum aims to maintain principal debt levels of $15 billion.
In Q1 of 2024, Occidental Petroleum’s interest expense totaled $284 million, which suggests its debt is easily serviceable given the company’s free cash flow of $700 million. Moreover, OXY’s long-term debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 1.4x, which is not too high.
What Is the Target Price for OXY Stock?
Out of the 18 analyst ratings given to OXY stock, two are Buys, 12 are Holds, and none are Sells, indicating a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The
average OXY stock price target is $71.69, indicating upside potential of 14.1% from current levels.
The Takeaway
Occidental Petroleum’s earnings and cash flow took a hit in Q1 due to lower oil and gas prices. Alternatively, there are multiple catalysts for Occidental Petroleum that should help it deliver outsized gains to shareholders. I believe the potential upside from non-oil businesses makes OXY stock a top investment choice for those looking to gain exposure to the energy sector.
Disclosure