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Should You Pick Eli Lilly Stock After A 4x Rise In Three Years?

2 years 6 months ago
Eli Lilly stock (NYSE: LLY) has seen phenomenal gains of 345% from levels of $170 in early January 2021 to around $755 now, vs. an increase of about 35% for the S&P 500 over this roughly three-year period. This can primarily be attributed to a significant 236% rise in the com
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PPA: This Defense ETF Is Outperforming Its Peers

2 years 6 months ago
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF ( NYSEARCA:PPA ) has outperformed its peers over the past three, five, and 10 years. Defense stocks have historically been a good place to invest, and I’m bullish on PPA as a good way to gain exposure to them, thanks to its outperformance versus peers, its diversified approach to investing in aerospace and defense, and the fact that it gives investors a bit of different exposure to the space versus its peers.   What Is the PPA ETF’s Strategy?  According to fund sponsor Invesco ( NYSE:IVZ ), PPA is “based on the SPADE Defense Index. The Fund will normally invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stocks that comprise the Index. The Index is designed to identify a group of companies involved in the development, manufacturing, operations and support of US defense, homeland security and aerospace operations. The Fund and the Index are rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly.” The fund launched in 2005 and has $2.9 billion in assets under management (AUM).  Why Invest in Defense Stocks?  Defense stocks are generally a good sector for investors to gain exposure to, as defense companies have strong relationships with large and stable customers, like the U.S. government and other national governments. Because of these strong, longstanding relationships and the considerable technical expertise and financial resources required to manufacture products like fighter jets, missiles, drones, and other complex military-grade equipment, these companies enjoy strong moats around their businesses.  Furthermore, defense spending is often uncorrelated with the broader economy, giving investors some downside protection.  A Diversified Aerospace and Defense Portfolio PPA offers investors solid diversification within the aerospace and defense sector. It holds 53 stocks, and its top 10 holdings make up 50.7% of assets.  This makes PPA wider-reaching than peers like the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF ( NYSEARCA:XAR ) and the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ( BATS:ITA ), which own 34 and 38 stocks, respectively.  Below, you’ll find an overview of PPA’s top 10 holdings using TipRanks’ holdings tool. PPA owns all of the typical defense industry stalwarts that you would expect it to, like Lockheed Martin ( NYSE:LMT ), RTX Corporation ( NYSE:RTX ), and Northrop Grumman ( NYSE:NOC ).  But what differentiates it a bit is that it also owns stocks that you might not immediately think of as aerospace and defense stocks, like General Electric ( NYSE:GE ) and Honeywell ( NASDAQ:HON ). While these stocks are indeed involved in aerospace and defense, they are giant industrial conglomerates with irons in the fires of many other industries as well. And while these stocks play a prominent role in PPA’s SPADE Defense Index, they are absent from the underlying indices of XAR and ITA.  As you can see, General Electric is PPA’s largest holding, with a weighting of 7.5%. And this far-reaching approach to aerospace and defense has been a good thing for the fund, as shares of General Electric have quietly gained 87.5% over the past year, driving a strong performance for PPA, as we’ll discuss further below. Honeywell’s performance hasn’t been quite as spectacular as General Electric’s, but it has still gained a decent 9.5% over the past year. Palantir ( NYSE:PLTR ) is another interesting example of a stock that PPA owns, but XAR and ITA do not. While certainly not a traditional defense company, Palantir’s software and data solutions are utilized by the U.S. military, the Department of Defense, and other defense agencies around the world. I like the fact that PPA gives investors exposure to the next generation of defense stocks like this. To be clear, Palantir isn’t a top holding, as it is just a small position within the fund, but Palantir has a lot of potential, and shares have gained 198.1% over the past year.  Another thing that I really like about PPA is that it has much less exposure to the beleaguered Boeing ( NYSE:BA ) stock than competitors like ITA. While Boeing is a top 10 holding for PPA, its 4.1% weighting within the fund makes it a much more manageable position than ITA’s 14.0% weighting in the troubled aerospace giant.   Best-in-Class Performance PPA has generated an excellent annualized return of 14.2% over the past three years and excellent annualized returns of 11.4% and 12.7% over the past five and 10 years, respectively. These are pretty solid results on their own, and these results are more notable in that PPA has decisively outperformed its peers like XAR and ITA recently.  For example, XAR has returned 5.4% over the past three years, 8.2% over the past five years, and 11.3% over the past 10. Meanwhile, ITA has returned 11.2% over the past three years, 5.3% over the past five years, and 10.1% over the past decade.  As you can see, PPA outperformed both of these peers over each time frame, especially over the past three and five years.  What Is PPA’s Expense Ratio? PPA has an expense ratio of 0.58%, meaning that an investor putting $10,000 into PPA will pay $58 in fees annually. Interestingly, this is right in line with the average expense ratio for all index ETFs, which stands at 0.57%, but it’s also more expensive than that of peers like XAR and ITA, which charge 0.35% and 0.40%, respectively. The fact that PPA is more expensive than its two closest competitors is the primary downside here. However, the fact that it has soundly outperformed these competitors over the past three and five years means that it can make a case that this higher fee is justified. If it keeps outperforming, most investors probably won’t mind.  Does PPA Pay a Dividend? PPA is a dividend payer. While its yield of 0.6% certainly isn’t the main draw here, it is an added bonus for investors. The fund has consistently paid dividends since its inception in 2005.  Is PPA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Turning to Wall Street, PPA earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 41 Buys, 11 Holds, and two Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average PPA stock price target of $107.49 implies 8.6% upside potential. The Takeaway: A Good Way to Invest in Aerospace and Defense Stocks I’m bullish on PPA going forward, given its strong performance over both the short and long term and the fact that it has outperformed its competition. PPA is a bit wider-reaching and a bit more diversified than its peers, and it gives investors exposure to aerospace and defense stocks that its peers do not, such as General Electric, Honeywell, and Palantir. The defense industry looks like a good sector for investors to gain exposure to, and PPA is a good way to do it.  Disclosure
TipRanks

Gold Slips as Markets Brace for Fed's Decision: A Week of Central Bank Moves and Economic Signals

2 years 6 months ago
The recent gold rally stalled on March 08, at $2,203, and has since ground lower as the market awaits this week's global Central Banks decisions on interest rates and economic conditions. Gold's recent rally has good support from the managed money community. Have the funds become too optimistic too quickly? After this price correction and a favorable FED press conference, a seasonal buy pattern could extend the bull market.
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Wheat Prices Continued to Rebound on Tuesday

2 years 6 months ago
Wheat followed the Monday bounce with another 4 to 10 cent gains on Tuesday. Chicago futures ended the day 1.4% to 1.8% in the black as Dec SRW closed +$6. KC wheat was 1.3% to 1.6% higher with gains of as much as 9 cents. Dec HRW is also back...
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Cattle Weaken on Tuesday

2 years 6 months ago
Live cattle futures kept to a relatively tighter range on Tuesday, with April printing a $1 range. Most of that was spent in the red, though the board was within 52 cents of UNCH at the close as Dec settled in the black by 2c. Deferred feeder contracts were also...
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Triple Digit Drop for Lean Hogs

2 years 6 months ago
June hog futures spiked their 18-wk moving average at the daily low, but closed above it as futures have mostly been above that moving average since early Jan. At the close the front months were $1 to $1.77 weaker. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price increased by $1.12 on Tuesday...
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Beans Close Mixed for Tuesday

2 years 6 months ago
Soybean futures ended the session mixed within 3 cents of UNCH. New crop prices settled the day in the black, but 3c off their session highs. Old crop prices ended the day in the red, but ~4 cents off their session lows. Soymeal futures closed Tuesday with $1.70 to $2...
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Mixed Finish for Tuesday’s Cotton Trade

2 years 6 months ago
The cotton market mostly worked lower on Tuesday, though futures were off their lows for a mixed finish on the day. New crop prices settled up by 15 to 21 points, while the old crop market was down by triple digits. May cotton printed nearly a 240 point range, most...
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Corn Closed Near Highs for the Day

2 years 6 months ago
Tuesday corn trading ended the session with 2 ½ to 3 ½ cent gains with futures near their daily highs. The weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.24 MMT of corn was shipped during the week that ended 3/14. That was up from 1.17 MMT the week prior and was slightly...
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Apple-Google Gemini Partnership Could Make an Unstoppable AI Force

2 years 6 months ago
Google’s parent company, Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ), shot higher yesterday, finishing the day up 4.6%, following a Bloomberg report that Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) may be looking to Google Gemini as the AI integrated into the iPhone. Indeed, a potential Apple-Google Gemini partnership in artificial intelligence (AI) could mirror their deal with search, which was the subject of considerable regulatory scrutiny in recent years. And while a Google-Apple AI partnership is sure to draw the ire of antitrust regulators, I see the move as a potentially massive win for both companies as they seek to gain (further) in the AI race. With Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) leading the charge on generative AI with its OpenAI stake, Apple must find a way to make up for lost time on the AI front. Teaming up with Google is a way to catch up with industry leaders like Microsoft. Also, it may be a straightforward way to pull ahead as Apple gains access to one of the most potent large language models (LLMs), Google Gemini. Given this, I remain bullish on both AAPL and GOOGL. Apple: Teaming Up with an AI Powerhouse Could Prove Wise While I’m sure Apple could incorporate its own LLM into its devices, I think Google is the better option at this early phase in the AI boom. Why? As good as LLMs have become in recent quarters, they’re still not immune from hallucinating (making stuff up, seemingly out of the blue). Only time will tell when we have a robust, hallucination-free LLM ready for the market. Regardless, given Apple’s history of releasing polished products that are truly ready for takeoff, I just don’t see Apple putting itself out there with a work-in-progress type of LLM product. As capable and impressive as they are, even the latest versions of Google Gemini and ChatGPT-4 Turbo are technically works in progress, at least in my opinion. Neither LLM is perfect, especially at this point in the AI lifecycle, when hallucinations still happen regularly. My guess is it could take a while before LLMs are polished enough that mistakes become incredibly rare (or maybe virtually impossible). Perhaps we may be a few quarters or even a few years away from the error-free AI that many of us envision as a sort of holy grail in AI. Given how fast generative AI technologies are advancing (think exponential, not linear, rates), though, maybe hallucination-free LLMs are a heck of a lot closer than many of us may think. For now, I think the masses have come to accept that the occasional hiccup is bound to happen when using even the best LLM that exists today. Users of such LLMs can simply check the sources themselves to ensure they’re not on the receiving end of a hallucination. Indeed, fact-checking can be a bit of a hassle when using LLMs like Gemini or GPT-4, but it’s a relatively small compromise. Further, it’s between that and using an old-fashioned search engine. What Could the Future Hold for the Google-Apple AI Partnership? I don’t think Apple has anything to really gain by rushing an LLM product to market right now, especially given that today’s LLMs are prone to errors, negative headlines, lawsuits, public outrage, and all sorts of negativity. When the perfect time comes (perhaps when LLMs have a bit more polish), though, I think Apple could have the option to replace Google Gemini with its own LLM, just like when it gave Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) the boot from Mac devices when it was ready to launch on the back of its very own Apple Silicon. In these early stages of the AI boom, Apple stands to benefit from all the positives of AI by using Gemini without having to deal with the downsides. If something goes awry, it’s the Gemini LLM, not Apple, that’s to blame. In the meantime, look for Alphabet to gain traction as Gemini introduces itself to Apple’s golden install base, which is billions of users strong. Indeed, Gemini in iPhone could ultimately help Google and Apple surpass Microsoft in the LLM race. It will be interesting to see how a potential Google-Apple partnership evolves. Nevertheless, if any deal is inked, I expect that GOOGL stock could face a considerable valuation multiple expansion, perhaps one closer to that of its top AI peer, MSFT stock, even if Alphabet is forced to pay Apple a hefty sum. Even after surging 4.6% in a day, GOOGL stock still seems to have room to run at just 25.4 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) if it’s to catch up to MSFT stock’s 37.7 times trailing P/E multiple. Is GOOGL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Alphabet stock is a Strong Buy, according to analysts, with 28 Buys and eight Holds assigned in the past three months. The  average Alphabet stock price target of $165.09 implies 12.3% upside potential. Is AAPL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Apple stock is a Moderate Buy, according to analysts, with 16 Buys, nine Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months. The  average Apple stock price target of $204.86 implies 16.3% upside potential. The Bottom Line It seems like a Google-Apple Gemini AI deal would be a win for both firms in a bid to pull ahead in the generative AI race. It’s important to note, however, that all we have is a report from Bloomberg about potential talks between the two companies. The chatter about the chatter means that nothing is set in stone yet, even though recent market action suggests a dotted line has already been signed. In any case, look for Apple to go on the hunt for an AI partner as it seeks a “backstop” in this still-early (and less-than-polished) stage of generative AI. Disclosure 
TipRanks

Dollar Climbs to a 2-Week High on Yen Weakness

2 years 6 months ago
The dollar index (DXY00 ) on Tuesday rose to a 2-week high and finished up by +0.22%. A slump in the yen to a 4-month low Tuesday supported the dollar after BOJ Governor Ueda signaled the BOJ would maintain an accommodative policy despite ending its negative interest rate campaign. The...
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Crude Settles Higher on Tighter Global Oil Supplies

2 years 6 months ago
April WTI crude oil (CLJ24 ) on Tuesday closed up +0.75 (+0.91%), and Apr RBOB gasoline (RBJ24 ) closed up +0.49 (+0.18%). Crude oil and gasoline prices Tuesday closed higher with crude climbing to a 4-1/2 month high and gasoline posting a 6-month high. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries...
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