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Is Li Auto Stock (NASDAQ:LI) Down and Out after Q1 Downgrade?

2 years 6 months ago
Li Auto ( NASDAQ:LI ) stock has tanked since the beginning of March. But that doesn’t mean this stock is necessarily down and out. In fact, Li Auto proved itself to be one of the big winners in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market in 2023, and unless we see a significant deviation from this trajectory, the stock continues to look undervalued with a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 16x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8. Q1 Disappointment Li Auto issued a concerning note on 21 March, which resulted in the share price sliding more than 7% during that day alone. The Chinese NEV company said that deliveries for the first quarter would be significantly below the original estimate of 100,000 to 103,000 vehicles. The company now anticipates delivering between 76,000 and 78,000 vehicles. Taking the midpoints of the previous guidance and the new guidance, we can observe a 24.1% decrease. That’s pretty significant. Li didn’t provide an update on revenue generation during the period. The update comes a couple of weeks after Li launched the MEGA — its first battery electric vehicle (BEV). While the vehicle was initially greeted with much fanfare, achieving more than 10,000 pre-orders in less than two hours in November, some onlookers have been rather scathing. Some have suggested on social media that the vehicle, which was designed to achieve minimum wind resistance, looks like a coffin. The negative feedback has even drawn a cryptic response from the company’s CEO, who vowed to fight back. According to local media reports, fewer than 4,000 orders were placed for the Li Mega in the three days after its March launch. Trajectory Unchanged The first quarter is often challenging for Chinese businesses as this is when the Chinese New Year, and the associated holiday, falls. While the holiday always falls during this time of the year, it can be notoriously hard to forecast consumer behavior during the period. And this gives me some confidence going forward that the lower February data represents a blip rather than a step change in the company’s performance. Of course, it’s concerning to hear reports that Li’s first venture into the BEV market hasn’t been hugely successful. The company intends to sell 8,000 of the Mega vehicles monthly as part of a wider strategy to see deliveries reach 800,000 annually. From my personal understanding, Li’s Mega has only fallen short on account of its appearance. The seven-seater vehicle can be fully charged within 12 minutes, offers a state of the art entertainment system, and impressive passenger comfort. However, the bullet train design clearly hasn’t impressed. Likewise, it’s alarming to see sales of its EREVs (extended-range electric vehicles) fall in Q1. Li plans to introduce a further three BEVs in the second half of the year, and hopefully, for investors, they will be better received than the Mega — if the Mega really has fallen flat at all. Personally, I don’t think there’s any evidence that the low reported order volume for the Mega is indicative of demand for future Li Auto models. In short, I believe Li’s positive long-run trajectory can be sustained. Its range offering, charging speeds, and passenger comfort is exceptional. The fundamentals are there for continued success. Li Auto’s Valuation Li Auto’s valuation metrics continue to be very enticing. The stock is trading around 16x forward earnings, and given the expected earnings CAGR of 19.3% over the next three to five years, it has a PEG ratio of 0.8. In the current market, it’s challenging to find companies with PEG ratios under one. As such, these valuation metrics are particularly attractive from a relative perspective. For example, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) trades with a PEG ratio of 3.62. Several other EV makers are yet to turn a profit, further highlighting Li’s advantage over the sector and its relative attractiveness as an investment. Is Li Auto Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Li Auto stock is rated Strong Buy, according to analysts. The stock currently has 10 Buys, zero Holds, and zero Sell ratings. The average Li Auto stock target price is $54.73, inferring upside potential of 79.44% from the current share price. The highest share price target is $74.00, and the lowest share price target is $39.00. The Bottom Line Despite the lower guidance for deliveries (and likely earnings) in Q1, Li Auto still looks like an attractive investment opportunity, highlighted by its Strong Buy rating and attractive valuation metrics. And while reports that the Mega has fallen short of expectations in terms of orders, it would be wise to see how things out and not to assume that future releases will fall short of customer expectations. Moving forward, all eyes will be on production and delivery figures as Li moves towards the second half of the year, when it will unveil three more BEVs. Disclosure
TipRanks

RTH: This Powerhouse ETF Proves That Retail Is Not Dead

2 years 6 months ago
Anyone who tells you that “retail is dead” likely hasn’t looked at the VanEck Retail ETF ( NASDAQ:RTH ), which owns some powerhouse retail stocks and has been surprisingly outperforming the broader market over the past five and 10 years. I’m bullish on this underrated VanEck ETF based on its quietly strong track record of generating strong returns over a long time frame and its strong portfolio of highly-rated retail stocks, which go beyond what many investors may typically think of as retail.   What Is the RTH ETF’s Strategy? According to fund sponsor VanEck, RTH invests in an index called the “MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index (MVRTHTR), which is intended to track the overall performance of companies involved in retail distribution, wholesalers, on-line, direct mail and TV retailers, multi-line retailers, specialty retailers and food and other staples retailers.” RTH gives investors access to “25 of the world’s largest and most traded retailers.”  VanEck noted, “Technology and innovation are remaking the retail industry,” an important fact that we’ll delve into when we discuss RTH’s holdings in the next section.  More Than Just the Mall and Shopping Centers RTH owns 25 stocks, and its top 10 holdings make up 71.5% of the fund. Below, you’ll find an overview of RTH’s top 10 holdings using TipRanks’ holdings tool. When many people think of retailers, they first think of half-empty clothing and footwear stores at the mall fighting to stay relevant amid declining foot traffic or moribund discount retailers in declining shopping centers. Understandably, this is most likely a part of the market that they are keen to avoid. But RTH looks beyond these uninspiring examples and shows that there is much more to the retail sector. You may be surprised to find a stock like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) here, as many people think of the mega-cap $1.9 trillion behemoth as a tech stock. But its massive logistics network and expansive shopping platform, which gives customers the convenience of shopping from home with one-click checkout, not to mention free and fast delivery for Amazon Prime members, have made it a retail juggernaut to be reckoned with. Amazon is by far the fund’s top holding, with a weighting of 20%.   Beyond Amazon, RTH features large positions in several other shining stars within the retail sector, including Home Depot ( NYSE:HD ), Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ), and Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), which have weightings of 9.1%, 8.2%, and 7.2% within the fund, respectively.  They may not be the most glamorous or exciting stocks out there at first glance, but they have been incredible performers for a long time. You might not be surprised to hear that much-hyped shares of Amazon have returned 888.1% over the past decade. But don’t overlook the other three stocks, which haven’t exactly been slouches either. In fact, Costco has narrowly outperformed Amazon with a total return of 905.0% over the past 10 years, while Home Depot clocks in with a total return of 519.0%, and Walmart has returned a respectable 198.8% over the same time frame.  Essentially, RTH has harnessed the strong performance of these four large holdings to propel itself to excellent returns over the past decade, as we’ll discuss further in the next section.   Additionally, it’s worth noting that while all four of these stocks have been home runs over the past decade, they also all boast Outperform-equivalent TipRanks Smart Scores of 8 or above. The Smart Score is a proprietary quantitative stock scoring system created by TipRanks. It gives stocks a score from 1 to 10 based on eight market key factors. A score of 8 or above is equivalent to an Outperform rating. Top holding Amazon enjoys a 9 out of 10 Smart Score, and so does Home Depot. Meanwhile, Costco and Walmart all receive Smart Scores of 8 out of 10.  Further down the list of top 10 holdings, CVS Health ( NYSE:CVS ) and McKesson ( NYSE:MCK ), which many may associate more with healthcare than retail but are nevertheless retailers in their own right, both receive ‘Perfect 10’ Smart Scores.  RTH itself receives an Outperform-equivalent ETF Smart Score of 8. Surprisingly Strong Performance As discussed above, top holdings like Amazon, Home Depot, Costco, and Walmart have helped drive RTH to strong returns over the years. How strong are we talking? As of February 29th, the retail-themed ETF has produced a three-year annualized return of 11.3%. This slightly trails the return of the broader market. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( NYSEARCA:VOO ) sports a three-year annualized return of 11.9% as of the same date.  But once you zoom out to a longer time frame, RTH actually beats the broader market over the past five and 10 years. As of February 29th, RTH has an excellent five-year annualized return of 16.0%, narrowly beating out VOO’s return of 14.7%. Similarly, RTH’s 10-year annualized return of 14.3% also beats VOO’s 10-year annualized return of 12.7%.   What Is RTH’s Expense Ratio? With an expense ratio of 0.35%, RTH doesn’t necessarily stand out for being dirt cheap, but it is still significantly less expensive than the average expense ratio for all ETFs, which is currently 0.57%.  Does RTH Pay a Dividend?  Dividends are not the main attraction here, but RTH is a dividend payer and currently yields 1.0%.  Is RTH Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Turning to Wall Street, RTH earns a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 23 Buys, three Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average RTH stock price target of $227.80 implies 8.1% upside potential. More Than Meets the Eye While some investors will understandably shudder at the “retail” part of RTH’s name, its impressive performance over the long term and its strong underlying holdings show why you can’t always judge a book by its cover and why it pays to look beneath the surface and evaluate an ETF’s holdings.  I’m bullish on RTH, given its admirable performance over the years and its strong portfolio, which consists of large positions in long-term retail winners with impressive Smart Scores like Amazon, Home Depot, Costco, and Walmart. Disclosure
TipRanks

Lean Hogs Rallied Triple Digits Out of Weekend

2 years 6 months ago
The lean hog market rallied as much as $1.97 starting the new week of trading, and closed just ~20 cents off the day’s high. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was up by $1.87 on Monday afternoon to $81.17. The CME Lean Hog Index for 3/19 was 39 cents stronger...
Barchart

Monday Cotton Closed Mostly Higher

2 years 6 months ago
The old crop cotton market was up by as much as 78 points to finish the first trading day of the week. New crop futures were mixed as Mar ’25 closed UNCH and May ’25 went home 11 points in the red. Analysts are looking for Thursday’s Planting Intentions report...
Barchart

Soy Rallies Into Shortened Week

2 years 6 months ago
The bean market rallied back above the $12 mark and closed at or near the session highs. November touched the round number, but closed 1 ¼ cents under the mark. Soymeal futures went home on Monday with $1.60 to $2.60 gains. Soy Oil futures led the way up on Monday...
Barchart

Wheat Futures Close Mixed Mostly Higher

2 years 6 months ago
Wheats traded higher out of the weekend, before fading through midday on Monday. Futures firmed up for the close leading to a mixed board across the U.S. market. Chicago futures ended with a ¼ to 2 ½ cent gain, while HRW futures were fractionally mixed to 1 ½ cents in...
Barchart

Triple Digit Drop in Cattle On Feed Reaction

2 years 6 months ago
Live cattle futures were off their lows, by as much as $1, for the close on Monday but were still triple digits lower with losses of up to $1.52. Feeder cattle also fell by triple digits with $1.05 to $2.37 losses on Monday. USDA had last week’s cash trade as...
Barchart

Corn Closed Monday Fractionally Lower

2 years 6 months ago
Front month corn futures were fractionally weaker at the close on Monday, save for the lead month May’s contract which was 1 ½ cents weaker at the bell. As a reminder, the market will be closed on Friday. Corn planting in TX reached 46% finished as of 3/24 which was...
Barchart

Crude Oil: Is Oil Preparing for Higher Prices?

2 years 6 months ago
Late December's tax-driven selling pressures drove oil prices down. As if on cue, seasonal buying pressure emerged, injecting a fresh wave of optimism into the crude oil market. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a strategic accumulation of crude oil inventory for gasoline production, laying the groundwork for oil price increases in the months ahead. What factors are supporting this current oil rally?
Barchart

Notable Monday Option Activity: WM, POST, UTHR

2 years 6 months ago
Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Waste Management, Inc. (Symbol: WM), where a total volume of 6,486 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approxi
BNK Invest
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