One painful mistake investors can make is to rely too much on stock screeners when looking for possible investments. For example, if they start their search by filtering out stocks with high earnings multiples, they may overlook promising businesses that have had an off year, but
Chinese internet and e-commerce giant Alibaba (
NYSE:BABA
) has seen its stock rally from its multi-year low near $58 seen in October 2022 to $120 currently.
BABA’s revival expectations laid down in the article I wrote a month ago came true.
The stock is up over 30% since then. This is massive, especially compared to the S&P 500's (
SPX
) gains of about 1% and the Hang Seng index's 12% gain over the same period. While investors may think that they are too late to now buy the stock, that may not be entirely true. I believe that given the resurgence of the Chinese economy, BABA's strong fundamentals, and its business growth potential, the stock will continue its rally.
Now, let’s look at BABA's
5-year chart below. Despite the recent revival, BABA is far below its all-time high of ~$319 from October 2020.
Regulatory Crackdown on Chinese Tech is Easing
2023 started on a high note for BABA and the Chinese tech sector following positive news from the Chinese government’s new financial policies that seek improved relations with their U.S. counterparts. Newly- appointed Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang stated that he hopes to see better relations with the U.S. in the future. In addition, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that the regulatory overhaul is nearing its end.
On top of that, BABA stock got an additional boost. Beijing authorities approved a capital raise of $1.5 billion for BABA’s financial technology company Ant Group.
Investors saw this as yet another reaffirmation of China’s easing regulatory crackdowns. For reference, BABA owns a third of Ant Group.
China Buys More BABA Shares
Ensuring that the Chinese government has a big piece of the BABA pie, last week, the government revealed that it will
buy "golden shares" of many companies like BABA and Tencent Holdings (
OTC:TCEHY
). It also recently bought golden shares in BABA’s media and entertainment subsidiaries: Youku and UC web.
What are golden shares? Golden shares are special shares that allow the holders to have representation on the company’s Board of Directors. In addition, they also get veto rights and enjoy more power than the normal shareholders.
This can mean two things. First, the Chinese government is confident about the growth prospects of these stocks. Second, though the regulatory clampdown has ended, this is the government’s way of still holding significant power over these giant Chinese stocks.
Activist Investor Ryan Cohen Buys Big Stake in BABA; Higher Buybacks Possible
Recently, popular investor
Ryan Cohen added a
considerable stake in BABA shares though the exact amount is not yet revealed. According to
The Wall Street Journal, the stake is said to be worth "hundreds of millions of dollars."
Further, Cohen is pushing BABA to accelerate its share repurchase program. Cohen believes that BABA has the potential to achieve an impressive 20% growth in its free cash flows over the next five years. Higher buybacks make sense if that turns out to be true.
In November 2022, BABA’s management hiked its existing share repurchase program by $15 billion to $40 billion, effective until March 2025. However, Cohen is encouraging the board to increase the buybacks by another $20 billion to $60 billion. The company made the most of its cheap valuation in 2022, having bought back $18 billion worth of shares as of the end of October 31, 2022.
If BABA gives into Cohen’s suggestions, it could bring a huge return to shareholders by reducing the company's total share count. Overall, buybacks of $60 billion would make up nearly 19% of the BABA's current market cap.
The buybacks are further supported by a sturdy
balance sheet, with cash and cash equivalents of ~$68.5 billion as of September 30, 2022, as well as robust future free cash flow generation.
In terms of its valuation, Alibaba looks attractive, as it's trading at a huge 33.5% discount to its five-year historical forward P/E average of 23.2x. BABA’s current forward P/E ratio is hovering around 15.4x.
Is BABA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
According to the Wall Street community, Alibaba's future looks bright. Overall, the stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 unanimous Buys.
Alibaba stock's average price target of $138.53 implies 15.2% upside potential from current levels.
Conclusion: BABA Stock Looks Attractive Despite Its Rally
The investment community has once again become bullish on Chinese stocks like BABA. Consequentially, upward price target revisions by several analysts were seen over the past month.
China's recovery and massive size will ensure growth for the company. With a robust domestic customer base, strong business growth prospects, especially in the cloud business, and solid fundamentals and cash flows, BABA stock will likely experience great returns in the coming years.
Further, meme-stock king Cohen’s pressure to execute more buybacks clearly indicates his confidence in BABA’s growth story. Therefore, I will buy the stock at current prices.
Disclosure
Investors in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Symbol: BABA) saw new options begin trading today, for the December 2025 expiration. One of the key data points that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 1059 days until expiration the newly t
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
For Immediate Release Chicago, IL – January 25, 2023 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Tesla TSLA, Rivian Automotive RIVN, First Solar FSLR, Coca-Cola KO and Alibaba BABA.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and iQiyi (NASDAQ: IQ) are two of the world's largest streaming video platforms. Netflix ended its latest quarter with 231 million paid subscribers, but it's never launched its app in China. iQiyi, which mainly operates in China, served 101 million subscrib
It was supposed to be a rough year for retailers. You wouldn’t know it by their stock charts.
The National Retail Federation predicted that November and December sales would grow around 7%. As it turned out, inflation and higher interest rates had a bigger-than-expected impact o
Alibaba (BABA) closed the most recent trading day at $119.44, moving -0.08% from the previous trading session. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.07%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.31%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 3.22%.
Amazon’s AMZN cloud computing arm, Amazon Web Services (AWS), launched an infrastructure region in Australia's Melbourne.The new region marks the company’s second region in Australia and joins the existing region located in Sydney.Through the AWS Asia Pacific (Melbourne)
With China ready to leave its zero-COVID policy behind, the subsequent reopening and recovery could be a huge global boon. Undoubtedly, the consequences of Chinese lockdowns have spread well beyond China's borders. With so many international firms dependent on the Chinese market for growth, many such names could experience a tailwind, even as a potential recession begins to move in.
The real question is whether China's economic reopening and recovery can help offset the macro headwinds we've all grown familiar with.
Various analysts familiar with the matter think China's economic recovery could arrive quicker than expected. Specifically, Citigroup (
NYSE:C
) economists are upbeat on China's post-COVID recovery as it looks to bounce back from a sluggish 2022 that was its second-worst growth year in decades.
Therefore,
let's examine two stocks -- Alibaba
(
NYSE:BABA
) and Starbucks
(
NASDAQ:SBUX
) -- that look like prime candidates to rally higher on the back of a potential Chinese recovery in 2023.
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA)
Chinese e-tail and diversified tech kingpin Alibaba is one of the tech stocks that stands to benefit significantly from an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. Undoubtedly, Alibaba is likely one of the first names to come to mind when one hears of
Chinese stocks. Though Alibaba has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past two years, I finally think the behemoth is ready to turn a corner. I am bullish on the stock.
Recently, news broke that billionaire activist investor and "meme-stock king" Ryan Cohen had taken a big stake in Alibaba. Cohen is reportedly looking to encourage the firm to increase its share buybacks.
Alibaba stock endured
a brutal peak-to-trough tumble, losing nearly 80% of its value at its worst. The stock has been trending higher in recent months but is still miles below where it was during its 2020 peak.
I think there's still plenty of value in the name, and calls for share buybacks are more than warranted. At writing, shares of BABA trade at a mere 16.2 times trailing earnings multiple. That's cheap, especially considering BABA stock has tended to trade at well above 20 times price-to-earnings (P/E) in the past.
It's not just the sluggish Chinese economy that's caused Alibaba stock to fall under such considerable pressure in recent years. Additional risks exist for U.S. investors. Delisting risk and other geopolitical unknowns make Chinese stocks, like Alibaba, a bit of a difficult name to value.
The way I see it, though, the perceived risks seem to be at or around a high point for the name, given how fast best-in-breed Chinese tech stocks have fallen out of favor. Further, I think Cohen's influence could go beyond just pushing for buybacks. Even without further activism, Alibaba stock is just a bruised name that may not need much influence to march higher once China's post-COVID recovery starts to kick in!
Personally, I think Cohen is making yet another brilliant and potentially timely investment when it comes to Alibaba. Yes, it's a risky investment, but one that could accompany a sizeable payoff.
What is the Price Target for BABA Stock?
Wall Street still likes Alibaba, with a "Strong Buy" rating and a $138.53
average BABA stock price target that entails 15.8% gains from here.
Starbucks (
NASDAQ:SBUX)
Starbucks is a coffee giant that views China as a key pillar of its growth. At this juncture, it's difficult to gauge how much boom China's post-COVID economy will give to Starbucks. Cowen recently stated that it thinks per-share earnings could surge up to 20% through 2025 due to China's reopening. Such upbeat comments about Starbucks' growth keep me bullish.
Undoubtedly, the Chinese expansion has been anything but smooth sailing. However, longer term, China's fast-growing middle class could pave the way for a new leg of growth in a coffee giant that's had mixed success in its home market of late.
Indeed, 2022 was a mixed year for Starbucks. The stock staged a big comeback after its 2021-22 "caffeine crash." Over the past year,
the stock is up just north of 10% and up 57% from its 2022 lows. The stock has heated up in a major way and could be poised to eclipse new highs if all goes well with China's reopening and recovery.
Beyond the China expansion, I'm also bullish on
Starbucks' automation efforts, which could enhance longer-term margins and give a "jolt" to shares.
At
37.1 times trailing earnings, SBUX is slightly pricier than average restaurant stocks (which trade at 35.2 times trailing earnings). However, for the rich multiple, you'll get powerful tailwinds that could kick in sooner rather than later.
What is the Price Target for SBUX Stock?
Wall Street has warmed up to Starbucks. The
average SBUX stock price target of $107.33 implies upside potential of just 1.1%. For a stock with a "Moderate Buy" rating, I expect price target upgrades to flow in over the coming weeks.
The Takeaway
Starbucks and Alibaba stocks are intriguing options to play a Chinese recovery. Out of the two, analysts expect more gains from BABA stock at current levels.
Disclosure
In the Global Week Ahead, some of the biggest tech names in the U.S. report results.At the same time, the U.S. federal government will hit its debt limit.Surprising some across the Atlantic, Britain's FTSE100 share index flirts with a record high.In Asia, Japan, New Zeala
What happened
Week to date, shares of iQiyi (NASDAQ: IQ) were down 14% as of 12:21 p.m. on Friday, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Alibaba (BABA) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Chinese companies are expected to report their highest earnings growth in five years, Refinitiv data shows, as economic reopening after COVID lockdowns and accommodative monetary policy raise hopes for higher profits.
Alibaba (BABA) closed at $113.22 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.71% move from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.56%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 1.81%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 4.66%.