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Will Share Buybacks and Dividends Aid Chinese Stocks?

4 years 4 months ago

Many companies have taken a beating in the tumultuous stock market of 2022, and Chinese stocks are probably among the most battered. Chinese equities have seen persistent selling pressure, resulting in market value losses of trillions of dollars.

Over the past year, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 37.5%, while the Shanghai Composite fell about 12%.

China's Unresolved Issues

China has been dealing with a number of difficulties, including government crackdowns and increased controls on private companies, all of which have affected the economy. Last month, however, China's Politburo issued words implying that a sweeping crackdown on online platforms will be loosened.

The reappearance of COVID-19 in China has further disrupted supply chains, implying a further economic recession.

To make matters worse, several Chinese stocks are in danger of being delisted from overseas exchanges. Along with DiDi Global (DIDI), numerous more companies have recently been added to that list, including JD.com (JD), Nio (NIO), and Xpeng (XPEV). These equities suffered significant losses as a result of the delisting news and the overall market crisis.

Unfortunately, these problems appear to be prevalent and long-lasting. As a result, the downside risk to China's economic outlook in 2022 has grown greatly.

Optimistic Approach to Increase Investor Confidence

Chinese businesses appear to be thinking strategically. Due to regulatory uncertainty and logistical and labor disruptions due to lockdowns, Chinese enterprises are limited in their ability to use their cash wisely. As a result, most of these corporations have chosen safe choices such as stock buybacks and dividends.

These moves could help to bolster their shattered stock prices and signal, at least in part, confidence in the long-term prognosis.

We've put together a list of two Chinese stocks that have used the aforementioned method to improve their valuations.

Alibaba (BABA)

Alibaba is a global Chinese technology corporation specializing in e-commerce, retail, and technology.

Alibaba, just like other Chinese companies, is facing a lot of difficulties in dealing with the Chinese authorities. The stock has dropped more than 61% in the past year.

Alibaba's latest attempt to stem the slide in its stock price was to increase its share buyback capability from $15 billion to $25 billion. The repurchase authorization is valid for two years through March 2024.

Alibaba's stock price rose as a result of the company's large new buyback plans.

Tomorrow, the e-commerce behemoth will release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 profits. It will be fascinating to see how Alibaba performs in the face of regulatory and other macroeconomic hurdles.

Ahead of fiscal Q4 results, Mizuho analyst James Lee anticipates Alibaba's first half of 2022 to be challenging, owing to sluggish consumer spending. It also anticipates the company's performance to be impacted by restricted corporate operations induced by the Chinese lockdowns.

The four-star analyst maintained a Buy rating on the stock but decreased the price target to $160 from $180 per share.

On TipRanks, Alibaba stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buys and one Sell. The average Alibaba price target of $170.29 implies upside potential of approximately 103% from current levels.

However, hedge funds have been Negative on Alibaba stock. TipRanks' Hedge Fund Trading Activity tool shows that hedge funds decreased their holdings in BABA stock by 252.9K shares in the last quarter.

JD.com (JD)

JD is a Chinese e-commerce behemoth that dominates the consumer discretionary market.

The company recently announced that a special cash dividend of $0.63 per share, or $1.26 per ADS, has been approved. The special dividend will be worth around $2.0 billion in total.

Apart from the foregoing, the company increased its share repurchase plans from $2 billion to $3 billion at the end of 2021.

In its latest results for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2021, JD reported strong results driven by robust online shopping demand. Adjusted earnings per share were RMB2.21 ($0.35), up 48.3% year-over-year, while net revenues increased 23% year-over-year to RMB275.9 billion ($43.3 billion).

Despite its positive performance, the company's stock price is under pressure from macroeconomic and regulatory factors. Its stock has dropped more than 32% in the last year.

However, Morgan Stanley analyst Eddy Wang is optimistic about JD's development prospects. He stated, "Although it's not immune to logistical disruption, we expect JD to benefit from the potential pent-up demand for home appliances and FMCG after the pandemic. Weak momentum in live-streaming e-commerce could continue after the pandemic."

As a result, Wang reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and a price target of $80.00 per share.

Overall, JD stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buys and one Sell. The average JD price target of $83.91 implies upside potential of approximately 64.9% from current levels.

However, hedge funds have been Very Negative on JD stock. TipRanks' Hedge Fund Trading Activity tool shows that hedge funds decreased their holdings in JD stock by 3.9 million shares in the last quarter.

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TipRanks

Is Global E-Commerce Really at Risk?

4 years 4 months ago
Investors endured another round of selling in the stock market, piling on after last week's turbulent performance. For six months now, major market benchmarks like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX
The Motley Fool

See Which Of The Latest 13F Filers Holds BABA

4 years 4 months ago
At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed the latest batch of the 21 most recent 13F filings for the 03/31/2022 reporting period, and noticed that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Symbol: BABA) was held by 9 of these funds. When hedge fund managers appear to be thinking alike, we find it
BNK Invest

Alibaba Slips Below $100, What’s Ahead?

4 years 4 months ago

The expected easing of regulatory pressure and an increase in the share repurchase program significantly boosted the ADR (American Depositary Receipt) of the Chinese internet giant Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). However, Alibaba has lost a significant portion of its recent gains and has dropped over 19% over the past month. Further, it fell around 6.7% on Thursday and closed below the $100 a share mark. 

What’s Hurting Alibaba? 

Investors turned their backs on BABA stock following China’s clampdown on its tech giants. Furthermore, an economic slowdown and increased competitive activity took a toll on its growth and, in turn, its share price. 

Though there hasn't been any significant company-specific news recently, the fear of delisting from the American exchange would have triggered the recent selloff in Alibaba stock. 

Notably, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) recently added JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) to its provisional list of companies that may be removed from the American exchange if they fail to adhere to the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act). Shares of JD.com closed about 6% lower on Thursday. 

Meanwhile, China’s leading tech-based mobility platform provider DiDi Global (NYSE:DIDI) recently announced that it plans to delist from the NYSE. 

Bottom Line 

Alibaba stock could continue to remain volatile on delisting fears. Further, the slowdown in its business amid a weak macro environment and increased competition remains a drag. 

Mizuho Securities analyst James Lee lowered his price target on BABA stock as he expects the resurgence of the coronavirus to negatively impact consumer spending, and in turn, Alibaba’s financials in the first half. 

Nevertheless, Alibaba’s growing active consumer base, investments in cloud infrastructure, and international expansion bode well for long-term growth. Of the 18 analysts providing recommendations on BABA stock, 17 recommended a Buy and one had a Sell for a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average Alibaba price target of $170.29 implies 79.9% upside potential to current levels.

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TipRanks

Why Alibaba Fell 10.8% in April

4 years 4 months ago
What happened Shares of Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE: BABA) fell 10.8% in April, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Alibaba, like many other Chinese stocks, was battered to begin the month, as the Chinese government continued to crack down on parts of the count
The Motley Fool

All Eyes on Alibaba ahead of Earnings

4 years 4 months ago

Alibaba (BABA), a multinational technology and e-commerce behemoth, is set to report its Q4 2022 earnings on May 6.

With a market capitalization of $263 billion, the company has lost almost 13% of its worth over the past three months. The stock price of Alibaba continues to be weighed down by recent lockdowns, ongoing regulatory challenges, macro headwinds, and heightened competition.

Alibaba posted mixed quarterly earnings in Q3 2022. Revenues of $38.01 billion were up 10% year-over-year, but fell short of the $38.83 billion consensus projection. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS of $2.65 came in above the consensus estimates of $2.55.

Let's take a look at the company's prospects for the upcoming quarter.

Website Visit Statistics

The number of visitors to Alibaba's e-commerce websites — alibaba.com, aliexpress.com, and taobao.com — can reveal a lot about the company's upcoming sales performance.

So, ahead of the Q4 print, we used TipRanks' Website Traffic Tool to have a better understanding of the company's results.

Overall, projected global visits to the Alibaba website decreased by 15% sequentially from the third quarter.

However, on a year-over-year basis, monthly visits to the Alibaba website spiked 61.8% in the fourth quarter.

Alibaba’s Expectations for Q4

Alibaba is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share in the fourth quarter, according to experts. The Q4 EPS forecasts show a double-digit drop in earnings of around 89% from the year-ago quarter.

Wall Street’s Take

Mizuho analyst James Lee maintained a Buy rating on the stock but decreased the price target to $160 from $180 per share.

Lee anticipates the first half of 2022 to be challenging for Alibaba due to the weak consumer spending and restricted corporate operations caused by the resurgence of the coronavirus and lockdowns in China. He believes that COVID's negative consequences will be felt across all segments, namely eCommerce, Advertising, and Cloud Computing.

On TipRanks, Alibaba stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buys and one Sell. The average BABA price target of $170.29 implies upside potential of approximately 74.1%.

Bottom Line

Alibaba's upcoming Q4 results could be hurt by the Chinese economic downturn, rising competition in the e-commerce industry, disruptions from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and other macro headwinds.

On the other hand, BABA's dominant market positioning, international expansion, expanding active consumer base, and investments in growth initiatives should provide a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Learn more about the Website Traffic tool in this video by Youtube sensation Tom Nash. 

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TipRanks

Alibaba Blasts Up after 1 Big Problem Solved

4 years 5 months ago

I've been skeptical about the performance of Chinese e-commerce titan Alibaba (BABA) going forward because of several key factors. However, the company jumped 10% in premarket trading on Friday, and the gains held into Friday morning's trading.

What gave this company — and several other Chinese retail operations — new hope is a major development from the Chinese government.

It's certainly good news, and might make some bullish on Chinese retailers. I'm pulling back to neutral, mostly because the overarching lesson seems to still be in play, regardless of the news.

The last 12 months for Alibaba stock have been a general decline. The company lost over half its value over the course of the last year.

The latest news, meanwhile, addresses one key problem facing many Chinese retailers. That problem is Chinese regulators run amok. Signs emerged from the Chinese government suggesting that its crackdown on tech stocks was over.

Better yet, the Chinese government was also prepared to offer stimulus measures to keep the flagging economy afloat.

Wall Street's Take

Turning to Wall Street, Alibaba has a Strong Buy consensus rating. That's based on 17 Buys and one Sell assigned in the past three months. The average Alibaba price target of $171.40 implies 71.8% upside potential.

Analyst price targets range from a low of $75 per share to a high of $276 per share.

Investor Sentiment is Unsettled

Here's where things start to get interesting. A look at investor sentiment suggests that investors are extremely concerned about the state of Alibaba. At least, the investor sentiment that we can pick up on.

Hedge funds are leading the way in the concern factor. The TipRanks 13-F Tracker revealed a massive sell-off as shares held went from around 80.58 million in December 2021 to just over 2.84 million in March 2022.

While the number of retail investors whose portfolios contain Alibaba stock was up 1.1% in the last 30 days, it's down that same amount in the last seven days.

1 Problem Down, 2 to Go

Undoubtedly, the newly minted program of restraint and help from the Chinese government will help investor confidence. Going from "constant crackdown" to "free money" has to be helpful.

Instead of being an active hindrance, the Chinese government has instead pivoted to being an active help.

The problem here is that, despite this problem being solved, there are still two major problems facing Chinese e-commerce firms who trade on American exchanges.

The first such problem is delisting. This threat comes around every so often, though it does seem to come up a lot less often than it used to. However, that may all change.

One day, the Securities and Exchange Commission or some other government body may pull the plug on such stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.

That's a serious problem; the sword of fiduciary Damocles is constantly hanging over this stock. That's not exactly a bell-ringer for a buy-and-hold platform.

The second major problem has less to do with the Chinese government, and more to do with the Chinese people. Like any online retailer, Alibaba depends heavily on discretionary income.

With the Chinese government currently strangling the life out of several sectors of its economy with extreme COVID-19 policies, discretionary income may be tough to come by for a while.

The Chinese government is planning stimulus, and this should help. To what extent — as we've already seen — that will help is unclear. However, there's one big lesson in all this as well.

If the Chinese government can do this kind of damage today, what's to stop it from doing it again tomorrow? When does Beijing ultimately go too far over some threat, real or imagined, to its political dominance? This can't make investors confident going forward.

Concluding Views

Granted, Alibaba stock is attractively priced right now. For those who want a piece of Chinese e-commerce, this may be just how to get it. There is a lot of upside potential, as the company is trading close to its lowest targets.

However, there's a very shaky geopolitical stance to consider here. There's a government that could kill the whole thing lurking in the background. The threat of delisting may come back into play once more. Alibaba is subject to a great many potential political pitfalls.

That leaves me concerned about putting any serious capital herein. That's also why I'm neutral. Right now, things are looking up. One misstep, however, and the whole thing comes tumbling down once again.

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Read full Disclaimer & Disclosure

TipRanks

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Why DiDi Global, JD.com, and Alibaba Are Up Today

4 years 5 months ago
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