Nasdaq BABA Alibaba

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Despite reporting unimpressive results for the fiscal first quarter, shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) have been on the upswing lately.

BABA stock lost up to 7.8% in the days following the release of the results. The stock rebounded and closed in the green on Wednesday. Further, it was trading almost 7% up at the time of writing, on Thursday.

In the first quarter, the Chinese E-commerce giant reported a 29% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings per ADS to RMB11.73. Income from operations fell 19% to RMB24.943 billion, and adjusted EBITDA decreased 18% to RMB34.419 billion.

Revenues remained flat year-over-year at RMB205.555 billion. While the Cloud segment’s revenue grew 10% to RMB17.685 billion, the revenue of the China commerce segment slipped 1% to RMB141.935 billion.

TipRanks’ Website Traffic Tool Hinted at a Weak Q1 Show

Even before the results were announced, TipRanks’ Website Traffic Tool hinted at a weak quarter for Alibaba. The tool, which uses data from SEMrush Holdings (NYSE:SEMR), the world’s biggest website usage monitoring service, showed a 6% fall in BABA’s global website visits during the first quarter, compared to the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year. Website visits on the desktop decreased 3.9% quarter-over-quarter and the traffic to the company’s mobile app had declined 6.8%. Learn how Website Traffic can help you research your favorite stocks.

What Is the Price Target for BABA Stock?

BABA's average price target of $154.09 mirrors over 55% upside potential. On TipRanks, Alibaba Group commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 21 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell.

Further, financial bloggers are 78% Bullish on the stock, compared to the sector average of 65%.

What Is the Future of BABA Stock?

The economic slowdown that followed the COVID-19 pandemic has hit Alibaba hard. It is cutting costs across all operations to deal with lower consumer spending in its main market, China. Alibaba Group plans to continue with its cost control and optimization strategy in the coming quarters to narrow losses.

Additionally, Leo Chiang of Deutsche Bank expects “geopolitical tensions, currency depreciation in Euro markets, and a slowdown in Southeast Asian markets” to impact the company’s international commerce revenues in the second quarter.

Maybe this is why hedge funds are pessimistic about the stock. TipRanks data shows that confidence in Alibaba is currently Very Negative, as the cumulative change in holdings across all 51 hedge funds that were active in the last quarter was a decrease of 12.8 million shares.

Read full Disclosure

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Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) recently surprised investors with a better-than-expected Fiscal Q1 performance. However, the quarterly beat failed to lift the stock for more than one trading session. Slowing macro activities, a slowdown in its Cloud business, and increased competitive activity limit the upside in Alibaba stock. 

Citing the softness in consumption, Deutsche Bank analyst Leo Chiang lowered his revenue forecast by 1% for Fiscal Years 2023 and 2024. Chiang stated, “We anticipate geopolitical tensions, currency depreciation in Euro markets, and a slowdown in Southeast Asian markets to collectively weigh on the outlook for international commerce in the Sep Q.”  

It’s worth mentioning that Alibaba’s Cloud business is facing multiple headwinds, including slowing macroeconomic activities, weak demand from domestic internet customers, and declining revenues from top Internet customers. 

Chiang expects these headwinds to continue to hurt Alibaba’s cloud business in the September quarter. 

While Chiang sees multiple revenue headwinds for Alibaba, he retains a Buy recommendation on BABA stock on better margin expectations. The analyst expects BABA’s ongoing cost control efforts and its focus on reducing new user acquisition costs to support its net income.

Chiang expects Alibaba to benefit from the faster-than-expected economic recovery and sees its valuation as “defensive.” the analyst raised his price target to $160 from $155.

Is BABA Stock a Buy or Sell?

Wall Street analysts are bullish about Alibaba’s prospects. For instance, BABA stock has received 21 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell rating for a Strong Buy rating consensus. Meanwhile, the average BABA price target of $154.09 implies 68.5% upside potential. 

Though most analysts recommend a Buy, hedge funds have reduced their BABA stock holdings. Hedge funds sold 12.8 million worth of BABA stock in the last quarter. Moreover, Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio BABA stock as well. 

Conclusion: Uncertainty Surrounds BABA Stock 

Alibaba’s focus on cost optimization and investments in its Cloud business will likely support its long-term growth. However, macro and regulatory uncertainty and increased competitive activity continue to play spoilsport and will likely hurt its prospects. 

Disclosure 

Chinese Internet behemoth Baidu’s stock (NASDAQ:BIDU) has declined by about 6% year-to-date and remains down by 58% from its early 2021 highs., trading at levels of around $140 per share currently. However, their stock has outperformed the broader Nasdaq-100, which remains