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Disney Stock (NYSE:DIS): Still Not Attractive Near Decade Lows

2 years 11 months ago
Disney's ( NYSE:DIS ) stock is at its lowest in nearly a decade. Despite its powerhouse status, owning Disney+, ESPN, National Geographic, and iconic parks, Disney shares have plummeted to levels not seen since early 2014. Over the past year, the company has underperformed notably, with a decline of 15%, in stark contrast to the S&P 500 ( SPX ) and the communications sector, which gained approximately 18% and 37%, respectively. With its underwhelming performance likely to persist, I remain neutral on the stock. The Slow Fade of Old-School Disney Shows Disney's legacy TV channels, like ESPN, Disney Channel, ABC, and National Geographic, used to be a big moneymaker for the company. Even today, Disney's Linear Networks segment continues to serve as a robust cash cow for the company. But times are changing, and fewer people are interested in traditional TV. Disney is feeling the pinch, too. In the latest numbers from its most recent third-quarter results, Disney's revenues from this segment fell by 7% to $6.69 billion. The segment's operating profit also declined by a worrisome 23% to $1.89 billion. In the U.S. and Canada, revenues fell by 4% to $5.5 billion due to weaker results at ABC and Disney's own channels, both of which posted lower advertising revenue. Lower advertising revenue was, in turn, caused by softer average viewership and lower rates. These numbers clearly underscore the overall weakness the broadcasting and cable industry is experiencing. Internationally, the situation is even worse, with revenues dropping by 20% to $1.2 billion, with similar headwinds adversely impacting its performance. Sadly, following such a steep decline in revenues, the segment also posted an operating loss of $87 million compared to an operating income of $166 million last year. Consequently, while Disney still makes money from its legacy assets (mainly from the U.S. and Canada), the situation is not looking good for the long term. People are ditching regular TV for alternative options, a trend that is particularly concerning given that Linear Networks comprise around 30% of Disney's total revenues. Fun Times at Disney Parks, but Visitation Volumes Could Decline On a brighter note, Disney's theme parks are doing well. In the third quarter, revenues from the Parks, Experiences, and Products segment grew by 13% to $8.33 billion. The segment's operating profit also grew by 11% to $2.43 billion. Higher revenues from Parks were primarily driven by higher visitation volumes at Shanghai Disney Resort and Hong Kong Disneyland Resort. In fact, international parks recorded a massive 94% growth in revenues to $1.53 billion. Despite this success, I remain cautious regarding Disney's pricing strategy. Disney has been charging more for everything in its parks, blaming it on prices going up. Given that inflation has slowed down lately, Disney fans might get tired of this trend, which could result in lower visitation volumes. We may have already started seeing the effects of this, as the company experienced a decline in room occupancy and attendance at Walt Disney World Resort in Q2. Troubles in Disney's Streaming World Disney's streaming service is also facing problems. With consumers battling between so many streaming options like Amazon's ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) Prime Video, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), and AT&T's ( NYSE:T ) HBO, among other services, it has been hard for Disney+ to grow. Even though Disney's Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenues grew by 9% to $5.53 billion, the company has yet to achieve profitability. Operating losses from DTC amounted to about $0.5 billion. The higher prices and tough competition caused Disney+ to lose 7% of its subscribers in a single quarter. In particular, Disney+ subscribers fell from 157.8 million in Q2 to 146.7 million in Q3. In fact, this was the company's third consecutive quarter of declining subscribers. This is terrible news, especially when you see that even Netflix, which has been around longer, keeps adding more subscribers. Thus, even the part of Disney that's supposed to reinvigorate its growth is failing in relative terms. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Disney investors have grown frustrated with holding the stock. Currently, there isn't a singular segment within the company that presents an exhilarating outlook for the future. Is DIS Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Regarding Wall Street's view on the stock, Walt Disney features a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buys, five Holds, and two Sells assigned in the past three months. At $106.16, the average  Disney stock forecast implies 25.3% upside potential. If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell DIS stock, the most accurate analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is  Michael Nathanson from MoffettNathanson, boasting an average return of 18.04% per rating and a 65% success rate. The Takeaway To sum up, Disney's ongoing struggles across virtually all of its segments paint a challenging picture for the entertainment giant. Its legacy TV channels face a decline in revenues and operating profits, a trend that is likely set to persist in the coming years. Its theme parks offer a bright spot, yet concerns linger about the viability of increased pricing. In the meantime, its DTC segment's losses hold the company back, as Disney+ faces stiff competition, resulting in consecutive quarterly declines in subscribers. As investors grow uneasy with Disney's investment case, it's likely that the stock will stay under pressure regardless of whether it looks cheap on paper. Disclosure
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Validea Detailed Fundamental Analysis - NFLX

2 years 11 months ago
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for NETFLIX INC (NFLX). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, NFLX rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental momentum
Validea

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META): A Must-Watch Stock for AI Investors

2 years 11 months ago
Social media company Meta Platform's ( NASDAQ:META ) efforts to strengthen its position in the AI (artificial intelligence) race have gained significant traction in recent months. The stock has risen by 162% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's ( SPX ) 12% gain, and analysts see more upside ahead. Meta's attempt to strengthen and monetize its already popular social media platforms by adopting generative AI could boost its revenue and earnings in the next few quarters. Hence, I am bullish on META stock now. Meta Platforms: Gearing Up for Another Strong Quarter Meta (formerly Facebook) is a part of the big tech  FAANG group, which also includes Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), and Alphabet (formerly Google) ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ). Meta Platforms owns social media platforms Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, the recently launched Threads, and others. These fall under one of its segments, Family of Apps (FoA). Its augmented and virtual reality-related products and services fall under its other reportable segment, Reality Labs (RL). Reality Labs hasn’t been profitable for the company. In Q2, it reported a $3.7 billion operating loss, however, thanks to its FoA segment, which is making up for the damage done. It brought in $31.7 billion in revenue, accounting for a chunk of total revenue, resulting in a $13.1 billion operating profit. CEO Mark Zuckerberg had set 2023 as the "year of efficiency" and has been working hard to make that happen. It entailed layoffs, reducing spending on less significant projects, and focusing on more AI-related projects. During its Q2 earnings call, the company discussed how its AI-related investments over the years are finally paying off. Meta Stock: Powering Through AI Innovations Certainly, it has been a year of efficiency. Most recently, at Meta's Connect conference, CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled the company's new generative AI products, which sparked market excitement. Meta AI is an advanced conversational assistant that can generate text responses and photo-realistic images and is integrated with Meta's popular products, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram. Meta AI is powered by Llama 2, its large language model, which it released in July in collaboration with Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ). The company intends to incorporate Meta AI into its mixed reality headset, Quest 3, and another new offering, a new generation of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. The company will launch Quest 3 on October 10. Zuckerberg described Quest 3 as the best value in the industry for combining digital and real-world experiences at a low cost. Indeed, it is low-cost, priced at $500, while competing with Apple's Vision Pro Headset, which will come with a price tag of around $3,500. Apple's headset is set to hit the market in early 2024. What's more, its new generation of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, in collaboration with EssilorLuxottica, are priced at $299. The glasses will be launched in the third week of October. Meta claims the glasses can take pictures, record videos, and connect to social media. Along with these, Meta has added generative AI stickers to its messaging apps. It could use AI to unlock more monetary potential in the wildly popular messaging app WhatsApp, which it purchased for $19 billion in 2014. More features from the company include its monthly subscription charges for ad-free Instagram and Facebook app use in Europe, which could be around 10 euros ($10.60 at current exchange rates). CFO Susan Li stated that the company's capital expenditures could rise in 2024 as it navigates AI and metaverse opportunities by expanding its workforce with more technical roles. Looking ahead, management anticipates revenue in the third quarter to be in the $32 billion to $34.5 billion range, representing an impressive 16% to 25% increase over Q3 2022. Meanwhile, analysts expect its revenue to be in the $29 billion to $34 billion range, with earnings estimates ranging from $2.27 to $4.27 per share, with the consensus EPS estimate landing at $3.59. On October 25, Meta will report its third-quarter earnings. Additionally, Meta closed its Q2 with a hefty cash balance of $53.5 billion and $18.3 billion in long-term debt. Given the company's rapid growth in revenue and profits, repaying the debt shouldn't be hard. Furthermore, it generated a sizable $11 billion in free cash flow in the quarter, which should aid in debt repayment and future project financing. While in pursuit of getting ahead in the AI race, Meta also believes this technology is still in its early stages and thus intends to build it responsibly. Is META Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Turning to Wall Street, TipRanks rates Meta as a Strong Buy, with 40 Buys, two Holds, and no Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average META stock price target of $376.47 implies 19.35% upside potential. The highest price target for the stock stands at $435, while the lowest is at $285 per share. The Takeaway Summing up, sitting at a market cap of $811.6 billion, Meta is very close to joining the $1 trillion club. With Meta's efforts to monetize its social media apps and capitalize on the massive growth brought about by AI, the company is well-positioned to achieve this goal. Though the AI niche is enticing, it is also susceptible to market fluctuations. But for now, I share Wall Street's optimism about META stock's outstanding long-term prospects. Disclosure
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