It's been a dreadful past several years for shares of Disney (
NYSE:DIS
), which is actually
down 22.9% over the past five years. As the stock looks to recover from seven-year lows on the back of
solid quarterly results and optimism over its plan to turn the tides, I'd not bet against the firm as CEO Bob Iger tries his best to bring back the magic in his latest (and probably last) tenure at the company.
Disney may have had many years to turn things around, so you can't blame shareholders for growing impatient with the firm. That said, I believe patience is vital to making money in such a battered name as it looks to jump above expectations that still seem pretty depressed. For now, I'm bullish and am willing to stick it out with Disney as Iger looks to work his magic.
Indeed, it doesn't take a lot to surpass estimates whenever the herd expects very little from a firm. We found that out last week as Disney pole-vaulted over analysts' estimates, causing a nice pop in the stock.
After several brutal years of lackluster performance, Disney is essentially viewed as a "D" student at this juncture. If the firm does enough of its homework, though, it may just be able to score a "B" grade or more. Give Iger another year or two, and Disney may just be able to post several quarters that surprise to the upside for a change. The latest round of better-than-expected numbers may be the first of many.
Disney Stock: Still a Falling Knife, but There's a Turnaround Plan
Even after the recent post-earnings bounce, DIS stock can still look like a falling knife destined for lower lows to many investors. With macro headwinds facing a firm that's undergone a "messy" pandemic-era transformation, questions linger as to whether the Disney of the modern era can remain as profitable as the media landscape continues shifting. A turnaround won't prove easy, but Iger does seem to have the right tools to drag The House of Mouse out of the gutter.
Even in a high-rate world, it's not just about cost cuts (Disney cut
an additional $2 billion in its latest quarter as streaming subscriber growth surpassed expectations). The firm must return to its roots if it wants to bring back the magic. That means spending money in a deliberate fashion to find the optimal balance of growth and margin expansion.
The company's $60 billion commitment to invest in parks and cruises over the next 10 years, I believe, is a wise move. Disney is head and shoulders above its peers in the amusement industry. And though macro headwinds could weigh down the parks and cruises numbers over the near term, I do think that investing in one of Disney's key pillars is one way to improve the company's positioning in a post-slowdown (or post-recession) environment.
As for streaming, Disney was incredibly aggressive in the early days of Disney+ to beckon a wave of new subscribers. Now that the platform has matured a bit, Iger is looking to shift gears into a "building" phase. This new strategy is focused on expanding the streaming service but with an emphasis on profitability and efficiency.
Iger wants to make streaming a profitable business. Given the man's expertise, I think it's just a matter of time before he transforms streaming from a "black hole for cash" to one of its most impressive cash cows.
Nonetheless, it seems like the shift to streaming hasn't been all that bountiful for the legacy media firms, at least compared to the big-tech titans that don't need streaming to pay off over the near-to-medium term. It also doesn't help that Netflix (
NASDAQ:NFLX
) is standing its ground, even as the barriers to entry into the streaming space fall.
Is DIS Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
On TipRanks, DIS stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 24 analyst ratings, there are 18 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The
average Disney stock price target is $106.86, implying upside potential of 20.6%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $71.00 per share to a high of $122.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on Disney
Disney certainly isn't the only media empire that's under pressure to trim away at expenses of late. But it's certainly one of the bluest blue chips of the batch and one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's biggest dogs.
After a sound Q4, there's room for hope when it comes to Disney's turnaround plan. As the economy normalizes, Disney's job of balancing profitability and growth could be made a whole lot easier.
For now, Disney's playing the long game. And if activist
Nelson Peltz is able to grab a board seat, the stage may very well be set for the stock's long-awaited recovery, perhaps sooner rather than later.
Disclosure
Streaming services will pay bonuses of roughly $40 million per year as part of the tentative labor agreement reached between the SAG-AFTRA actors union and major Hollywood studios, union leaders said on Friday after their board backed the deal.
The national board of the SAG-AFTRA actors union endorsed a tentative contract agreement with Hollywood studios on Friday and will send the proposal to membership for a final ratification vote.
India on Friday introduced a new draft broadcasting law to regulate the sector that will also apply to streaming giants such as Netflix, Disney and Amazon and calls for formation of individual content evaluation committees.
The quality of financial advice on social media platforms such as Instagram and TikTok is up for debate. But it’s not debatable that many younger investors turn to those platforms for investing advice. They also use those platforms to voice their opinions on specific stocks. Indeed, there is something to social sentiment investing. Some professional [...]
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Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for NETFLIX INC (NFLX). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, NFLX rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental momentum
Verizon is planning to offer the ad-supported versions of Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery's Max streaming services for about $10 a month combined instead of about $17, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Movie studios must obtain permission from actors to use their images in material generated by artificial intelligence (AI), and pay performers whenever their digital doubles appear on screen, under the labor agreement that ended a 118-day strike.
Verizon is planning to offer the ad-supported versions of Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery's Max streaming services for about $10 a month combined instead of about $17, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
Investors in Netflix Inc (Symbol: NFLX) saw new options become available today, for the December 29th expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the NFLX options chain for the new December 29th contracts and identified one put and one
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for NETFLIX INC (NFLX). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, NFLX rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental momentum
Investors in Hollywood studios on Thursday cheered a tentative deal with actors that could help restart production of movies and shows halted by a series of strikes since spring.
The SAG-AFTRA actors' union reached a tentative agreement with Hollywood studios to resolve the second of two strikes that rocked the entertainment industry as workers demanded higher pay in the streaming TV era, the union said on Wednesday.
The Egyptian Theatre, a historic movie house that hosted Hollywood's first film premiere a century ago, will re-open to the public this week after a multi-million-dollar restoration by Netflix.
Adyen on Wednesday cut its medium-term sales target, earning praise from analysts who said the new forecast was more realistic at a time when the digital payments sector is struggling.
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for NETFLIX INC (NFLX). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, NFLX rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental momentum
Netflix stock (
NASDAQ:NFLX
) has rallied strongly following its
Q3 results, with the company's growth reaccelerating. Impressively, Netflix posted the best quarterly subscriber additions in years while also revealing optimistic Q4 guidance. Clearly, Netflix appears to be emerging as a winner in the highly saturated streaming video-on-demand (SVOD) industry. However, the stock's recent rally appears to have pushed its valuation to hefty levels. Accordingly, I am neutral on the stock.
Revenue Growth, Subscriber Adds Reaccelerating
The highlight of Netflix's Q3 report was the fact that the company's revenue growth and subscriber additions showed a reacceleration. Revenues for the quarter
landed at $8.54 billion, implying a year-over-year increase of 7.8%. For context, Netflix's revenue growth in the previous four quarters, Q2 2023, Q1 2023, Q4 2022, and Q3 2022, was 2.7%, 3.7%, 1.9%, and 5.9%, respectively. The striking contrast between Q3 2023 and Q2 2023, in particular, left a highly positive impression on the market.
Netflix's robust revenue growth stems from an impressive 9% year-over-year increase in average paid memberships, marking the addition of 8.76 million paid subscriptions, a significant rise from the 2.41 million secured in Q3 2022. This surge is largely due to the effective rollout of paid sharing, Netflix's robust and consistent content library, and the continuous global expansion of the streaming platform.
While the average revenue per member (ARM) experienced a slight 1% year-over-year decrease, there is no cause for alarm. This decline can be attributed to non-critical factors. These include a higher proportion of membership growth stemming from countries with lower ARM, a deliberate strategy of limited price increases over the past 18 months, and some adjustments in the mix of subscription plans.
I would like to emphasize that the addition of 8.76 million paid subscribers represents the company's most impressive performance in years. The last time the company topped this result was back in Q2 2020, when it gained 10.09 million subscribers. This significant resurgence, especially when compared to the mere 2.41 million additions from the previous year, underscores the company's dominance in the highly-competitive SVOD market.
To provide some context, Disney's (
NYSE:DIS
) Disney+ has experienced a decline in memberships for three consecutive quarters. In the meantime, Netflix not only continues to attract new subscribers but is doing so at an accelerating pace. In my view, this speaks volumes about the platform's enduring strength and appeal against growing competition.
Netflix's Q4 Guidance is Even More Optimistic
Another aspect of Netflix's most recent quarterly report that enthused investors was its Q4 guidance, which appears to be even more optimistic. For Q4, management forecasts revenues of $8.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 11% or 12% on a foreign-exchange neutral basis. In other words, revenue growth is set to accelerate even further from the already impressive Q3 figure of about 8%.
The company anticipates that the forthcoming net additions will mirror those of Q3. Again, this is a remarkable achievement, particularly in light of the considerable challenges facing the SVOD industry, such as intensifying competition, pricing wars, and the distracting allure of social media apps. It's also worth noting that the Q4 guidance incorporates a $200 million decline in revenues due to the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This factor accounts for the elevated FX-neutral forecast of 12%.
The Valuation is Still Hefty
Netflix's reacceleration in revenues and subscriber additions is certainly impressive. However, I believe that the stock's valuation remains hefty, endangering investors' total return prospects, moving forward.
On the one hand, Netflix's operating margin landed at 22.4% in Q3, up from last year's 19.3%. Further,
free cash flow in Q3 came in at $1.89 billion, up from last year's $557 million and the best result in the company's history.
On the other hand, following the stock's post-earnings rally, even these numbers fail to justify the stock's valuation. Netflix is expected to post EPS of about $12.19 this year, suggesting a 22.5% increase year-over-year.
No doubt, this is a very impressive growth figure in the current market landscape, especially within the SVOD industry. However, it also implies a forward P/E ratio of 35.7, which is quite rich, in my view. While it illustrates the market's expectations for further rapid EPS growth, it leaves little to no room for error. For context, the S&P 500 Index's (
SPX
) forward P/E (for 2023) sits at around 21.
Is NFLX Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Looking at Wall Street's view on Netflix, the stock has drawn a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 23 Buys, 10 Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months. At $464.97, the
average Netflix stock price target implies 7% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell NFLX stock, the most profitable analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley, with an average return of 36.19% per rating and a 75% success rate. Click on the image below to learn more.
The Takeaway
In conclusion, Netflix's Q3 results and Q4 guidance undeniably reflect the company's resurgence in a competitive SVOD market. The substantial growth in revenue and subscriber additions showcases Netflix's enduring appeal.
However, the stock's valuation has surged to hefty levels, raising concerns about its sustainability. Despite strong operating margins and free cash flow, the elevated P/E ratio affords Netflix little margin for error. While Netflix's recent performance is commendable, caution should be exercised by investors as they navigate the path ahead.
Disclosure
Investors interested in Broadcast Radio and Television stocks are likely familiar with Fox (FOXA) and Netflix (NFLX). But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors? We'll need to take a closer look to find ou