It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Netflix (NFLX). Shares have added about 12.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
If you're a Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholder, your portfolio isn't the happiest place on Earth right now. The entertainment giant's stock was trailing the wider market through early November, and the shares fell again in the wake of its fiscal Q4 earnings results on Nov. 8.
Cathie Wood kicked off the first two weeks of November with a buying spree. It certainly appears that the co-founder and CEO of Ark Investment Management has been combing through recent third-quarter financial reports in search of beaten-down tech stocks to buy, and some of her p
After registering monster growth over most of the past decade, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) hit a bit of a rough patch at the start of 2022. The business lost a combined 1.2 million subscribers in the first two quarters of 2022. Many investors consider this a new phase for the company
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Roku ROKU recently announced that the Roku Channel has launched QVC and HSN from Qurate Retail QRTEA as the first livestream shopping channel.Both brands, which are the leaders in video commerce, will offer 40 hours of live programming on channels via broadcast networks,
Netflix (
NASDAQ: NFLX
)
surprised investors with a strong third-quarter showing, which saw paid subscriber
additions soar past 2 million. The platform's popular crime drama,
Dahmer - Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,
has quickly become one of the most-streamed shows on the internet. Though investors feel upbeat about recent earnings, we feel that its net additions were primarily driven by the hit show rather than customer loyalty to the platform. Hence we are bearish on NFLX stock.
Netflix's stock has been beaten down in the past year, suffering from a perfect storm of rising competition and comparisons against pandemic years. Consequently, its stock is down roughly 50% year-to-date.
Netflix's subscriber losses earlier in the year contributed to its stock's dismal performance. It lost 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter, followed by an even bigger loss of 1.2 million subscribers in the following quarter. The results had its investors running for the hills, as it was the first time in over a decade that the platform lost subscribers.
The company's reliance on a few hits has left it vulnerable to churn from lower-income users, who are likely to resubscribe only before big releases. That presents a major problem for the company as we advance, with its competition breathing down its proverbial neck. Though it will remain a major player in the streaming world, it won't have the same luster it did in the past. Its reliance on just a few high-hit series to maintain its popularity makes it an unattractive long-term wager.
Netflix Relies Too Heavily on Hit Series
Netflix's net additions of 2.4 million subscribers exceeded expectations by a huge margin. However, its net subscriber growth appears to have a strong link to the performance of a few high-impact series. Therefore, customers are susceptible to subscribing only before a major hit series is released. Moreover, with inflation and interest rates rising, it's getting incredibly tough for consumers to maintain subscriptions.
Netflix has grown its business by reinvesting in new content, attracting users, and retaining those already signed up. Nonetheless, it's having difficulty balancing the need to keep up with rising content prices and maintaining affordable packages for its users.
Netflix has outpaced its competitors by tapping into customer insights and creating content people enjoy. However, the company's position as king of streaming is under threat due to rising competition from new and established businesses. Platforms such as Disney+ have the advantage of having a core legacy entertainment business to fall back on. Netflix doesn't have that luxury, and the rising cost of producing content puts immense pressure on its bottom line.
Is NFLX Stock a Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, NFLX stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Out of 31 total analyst ratings, 14 Buys, 14 Holds, and three Sells were assigned over the past three months. The average NFLX price target is $291.16, implying a 4.59% downside potential. Analyst price targets range from a low of $162 per share to a high of $375 per share.
Conclusion: Competition Will Make Things More Difficult for NFLX Stock
Netflix may have been the first to market with streaming video, but now it's competing against giants. These competitors have multiple revenue streams, which makes it relatively easy for them to invest in new content. The streaming behemoth relies on a few hit series to boost subscriptions which is a worrying long-term sign.
The company is banking on new ad-based plans that could potentially add a revenue stream for the business. However, it could potentially result in price-conscious customers switching from their current plan to a cheaper one to save money. Netflix's management is optimistic that new subscribers will be driven by the ad plan, which will offset these losses. They also predict that high-margin sales from advertisements will make up for the losses.
Considering its valuation, we still believe that NFLX stock is trading unattractively despite the massive price drop. It trades at over 118 times forward cash flows and
26.8 times earnings. Though it is down substantially from its historical averages, NFLX should be trading at significantly cheaper multiples. Things will only get troublesome ahead, and we expect it to lose more value in the upcoming quarters. Therefore, it's best to stay on the sidelines.
Disclosure
With the stock market sell-off in 2022, it's become increasingly important to invest in reliable companies that can provide consistent growth for the long term. Moreover, if fears of a recession in 2023 prove to be valid, it will be crucial to hold on to stocks throughout potenti
The economy may be heading into a recession next year. Inflation remains around 8%, and layoffs are mounting, particularly in the tech sector. Consumers have already been tightening their budgets, and they may have to cut costs even further next year. The bearish outlook on the e
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What happened
Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) traded 3.5% higher at 3:20 p.m. EST, sparked by a few positive words from an analyst firm. Netflix stock rose as much as 4.5% earlier in the trading session.
Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (Symbol: FDN) where we have detected an approximate $59.0 million dollar outflow -- that's a 1.4% decrease
The tech-heavy Nasdaq led Wall Street's main indexes higher on Tuesday as data providing further proof of cooling inflation boosted bets of smaller interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
In today's struggling market, it isn't too difficult to find stocks that have had a difficult past 10 months, and that makes it an excellent time to shop for great stocks that are on sale. Of course, just because a company's shares are down does not necessarily mean they are wort
There is a lot to like about Netflix (
NASDAQ: NFLX
) currently, with the company's most recent results reassuring us on multiple fronts. These include strong momentum in net paid memberships and its
recently launched ad-supported model, which should boost revenues anew. That said, it's hard to tell whether Netflix's upcoming earnings growth prospects justify its current valuation. Accordingly, I am neutral on the stock.
Netflix is Heading Upward
Netflix's Q3 results included multiple positive developments. Coming off a relatively disappointing Q2,
the company posted revenue growth of 6% to $7.9 billion, driven by 5% growth in average paid memberships and a 1% increase in average revenue per membership (ARM).
This may sound like a soft number, but you have to consider two points here. Firstly, Netflix's revenues were greatly impacted by a much stronger dollar compared to last year. Specifically, excluding the impact of foreign exchange, revenue and ARM rose 13% and 3.8% year-over-year, respectively.
Secondly, Netflix crushed last quarter's expectations regarding its paid net additions. In particular, while management had forecasted net paid additions to land close to one million in Q2, in Q3, this figure came in at a bloated 2.4 million.
What Do NFLX Numbers Tell Us?
The initial takeaway from these numbers is that Netflix remains an incredibly strong player in the industry that continues to grow on top of last year's inflated results. Further, we saw an increase in new paid users and ARM, and that's after the company implemented more than one price increase over the past year. This demonstrates Netflix's strong brand value and viewers' willingness to stick to the platform despite
the growing wrath of its competitors.
In fact, it's quite impressive to see that net paid additions are actually accelerating despite concerns that members would cancel their subscriptions during a highly uncertain macro environment like the one we are currently experiencing. If anything, Netflix's Q3 results demonstrated that Netflix has become a consumer staple with inelastic demand dynamics.
What about the Ad-Supported plan?
Another aspect to like about Netflix is that the company's lower-priced ad-supported plan launched in 12 countries in November, only six months after its initial announcement. Thus, for the first time, Netflix's revenues will be diversified away from its subscription plans solely.
In my view, the ad-supported model should end up being a new growth catalyst for Netflix, as the company will now start generating additional revenues from an entirely new user base, which would previously refuse to pay any money for the platform.
Simply put, it benefits everyone. With the Basic Ads plan set to push only ~5 minutes of advertising per hour, users won't be bombarded with annoying program pauses. Simultaneously, advertisers should be able to push premium ad content based on relevant user data, which means that Netflix should be able to charge above-average ad rates, thus creating a new, highly-profitable segment.
Remember that Netflix will be offering content from its existing catalog. It won't take on new expenses to fund the ad-supported model. Thus, most of its ad revenues should end up directly in its bottom line.
NFLX - Questionable Valuation
We have so far talked about revenue and user growth, which are certainly great metrics. I also just mentioned that Netflix's ad-supported model should be highly profitable. However, does this translate to adequate growth in net income that will justify the stock's current valuation? Here's where I become cautious.
This is because Netflix's business model, by nature, is very capital-intensive. To retain its subscriber and hopefully further grow its viewer base, Netflix needs to produce new content consistently. Content gets old fast. If you don't produce new, exciting content all year long, your competitor will, and subscribers will shift sides. Thus, while Netflix may look like it's reporting solid profits, a noteworthy portion of these profits ends up in new content expenditures.
Regardless, based on the company's performance year-to-date and management Q4 outlook, the consensus earnings-per-share estimate for Fiscal 2022 stands at $10.37. Accordingly, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28.9x.
In my view, this is a rather rich valuation multiple, which demands double-digit earnings growth ahead. Could it be achieved by Netflix's strong momentum and new contributions from the company's ad-supported model? Maybe. However, there is a thin margin of safety for current investors if earnings don't grow quickly.
Is NFLX Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, Netflix has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 14 Holds, and four Sells assigned in the past three months. At $284.20, the average Netflix stock forecast implies 5% downside potential.
Takeaway: Speculation Remains
In line with the mixed sentiment from analysts, Netflix's investment case appears to be somewhat speculative. Its most recent developments have been undoubtedly cheerful. However, the company's future earnings growth will determine the stock's upside potential.
Disclosure
What happened
Shares of streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) closed Monday's trading session up 3.2%, decisively outperforming the major U.S. indexes, which declined.