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OpenAI's long-time backer Reid Hoffman leaves board
inkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman is leaving OpenAI's board to avoid conflicts of interest as he backs more artificial intelligence companies, he said in an online post.
Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Bing AI Rollout: Paving the Way for Growth
Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) stock heated up to start the year, partly thanks to its involvement with OpenAI and
ChatGPT. With the Bing AI rollout underway, Microsoft seems to be pulling ahead of the pack in the big-tech scene, causing rivals like Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
) (
NASDAQ:GOOG
) to issue a "Code Red" to accelerate efforts that will help get a competing product out the door.
Although Microsoft and Bing are leading the charge, I think it's far too early to tell who ultimately wins the
artificial intelligence (AI) race. In any case, I still think Microsoft is one of the best ways to gain exposure to AI. I am bullish on MSFT stock.
As Microsoft rolls out Bing, Google is right to be concerned. It's not hard to imagine more people going to ChatGPT or Bing AI with their questions rather than Google. AI chatbots certainly seem like a more effective substitute for traditional search engines.
For Alphabet, being a runner-up in the AI race could have consequences that could exacerbate its stock's recent slide. The company has already felt the macro headwinds pressuring its ad business. The last thing it needs is to get disrupted by a bitter rival it's had the upper hand over.
As ChatGPT and the new-and-improved, AI-powered Bing continues to garner traction, an argument could be made that Microsoft is finally getting the competitive edge it needs to help turn Bing into more of a credible threat to Google Search. However, I think it's quite a stretch to dub Bing the new Google.
The AI Race is Too Close to Call
As AI comes into play, it'll be interesting to see how industry dynamics shift. For now, Bing seems like a worthy foe, but once Bard AI gets up to speed, the AI race could become too close to call.
Given the recent action in shares of Alphabet (shares are flirting with 52-week lows again after the latest slide), I think many investors may be a tad too quick to discount the search behemoth's ability to adapt. Bard AI is off to a rocky start and could take a while longer to "one-up" the latest version of ChatGPT or Bing AI. That said, I'd not be so surprised if Bard and Bing leap-frog over one another many times over the next decade.
For investors, I think it's best to play the long game with both AI innovators. In the meantime, Google has much more to lose than Microsoft, as AI forever changes the search business.
Ads from the Google Search and Other Properties segment still account for more than half of the firm's total revenues. Meanwhile, Search ad revenue is a much smaller (around 6% of total revenues in 2022), albeit fast-growing part of Microsoft's revenue pie.
Microsoft's First-Mover Advantage Seems Intact, but Google is Lurking
For now, Microsoft's the first mover in the AI race, and it seems to be calling the shots with Bing. There's no question that Microsoft is moving quickly. The firm recently added the new Bing to its latest update of the Windows operating system.
Still, the early advantages of being a first mover may not last, especially when it comes to nascent technologies like generative AI. Arguably, there are risks of being too early in the chatbot game, in which case it may be better to enjoy the race from the sidelines before deciding to step in.
We've all heard about Google's early fumble with Bard in a demo when it served up an incorrect answer to a prompt. Microsoft hasn't been immune to such hiccups either. Reportedly, Bing can be nudged to serve up some "emotional" responses.
Such early wrinkles are to be expected, and they take time to iron out. If any firm can iron out said wrinkles, it's Microsoft — one of the generational growth stars in big tech.
Apple: Slow and Steady Wins the AI Race?
Indeed, Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) is one company that's more than willing to learn from the mistakes of its first movers so that when it's ready to launch its offering, it's incredibly polished. In that regard, I view Apple as a firm that could win any race with a slow and steady posture.
It's Apple's ability to deliver the "best" and "most polished" product to market that makes the brand so incredibly powerful. As the AI race begins, I think Apple is slowly observing, learning, and improving its AI capabilities behind the scenes.
At the end of the day, Apple is all about putting users before technology. And until the early (but expected) hiccups in early-stage generative AI begins to subside, Apple may be content on holding back on launching its own ChatGPT-like bot.
Is Microsoft Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, MSFT stock comes in as a Strong Buy. Out of 30 analyst ratings, there are 25 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell recommendation.
The
average Microsoft stock price target is $292.07, implying upside potential of 14.6%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $250.00 per share to a high of $411.00 per share.
The Bottom Line
The current state of Bing is far more polished than the hostile Tay bot that Microsoft had to pull the plug on back in 2016. That said, there's still a lot of work to be done as Bing goes to war with Bard.
Disclosure
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Analysts See 18.5% Upside in This Growth-Stock ETF
After growth stocks hit a wall in 2022, they’re back in vogue so far in 2023. For example, the Vanguard Growth ETF (
NYSEARCA:VUG
), one of the largest growth ETFs in the market with over $75 billion in assets under management (AUM), suffered a 33.1% decline last year, but it's up 8.7% year-to-date. While this is a nice gain so far, analysts believe that VUG still has plenty of upside ahead -- the
average VUG stock price target of $275.23 implies upside potential of 18.5% from current levels. Additionally, according to the views of 4K analysts, the Vanguard Growth ETF is a “Moderate Buy.”
TipRanks uses proprietary technology to compile analyst forecasts and price targets for ETFs based on a combination of the individual performances of the underlying assets. By using the Analyst Forecast tool, you will get an overview of the overall analyst rating, analyst price target, and upside or downside for an ETF, as well as the highest and lowest price targets.
TipRanks calculates a weighted average based on the combination of all the ETFs’ holdings. The average price forecast for an ETF is calculated by multiplying each individual holding’s price target by its weighting within the ETF.
For the Vanguard Growth ETF, 65.5% of the analysts in our data set rate this ETF a Buy, while 30.6% view it as a Hold. Just 3.8% call VUG a Sell.
Furthermore, VUG has an ETF Smart Score of 8, meaning that it is likely to outperform the market. Other indicators tracked by TipRanks, such as Crowd wisdom and blogger sentiment, are also positive.
VUG's Holdings
VUG's holdings include 254 stocks, and its top 10 holdings make up 46% of the fund. The fund tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Growth Index, which is comprised of large-cap U.S. growth stocks. Growth stocks are simply stocks that are expected to grow their revenue, profit, or cash flow at a faster rate than the broader market. Growth stocks are often companies with innovative new technologies or companies that are disrupting existing industries.
While growth stocks are more volatile than the broader market, picking the right growth stocks can lead to significant returns. This is where an ETF like VUG that offers broad diversification to a wide array of top U.S. growth stocks comes in handy -- investors get exposure to hundreds of blue-chip growth stocks without single-stock risk.
There is plenty of overlap between growth stocks and tech, so you’ll find a heavy weighting towards large-cap tech stocks like Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
), Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
), Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
), Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOG
) (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
) and Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) within VUG's top 10 holdings.
But growth stocks aren't limited to the tech sector -- payment networks Mastercard (
NYSE:MA
) and Visa (
NYSE:V
) are also among the top holdings, as is home improvement giant Home Depot (
NYSE:HD
). Other notable holdings include names like ThermoFisher (
NYSE:TMO
), McDonald’s (
NYSE:MCD
), and Nike (
NYSE:NKE
), so this ETF invests across a wide swath of high-quality U.S. growth stocks. Below is a look at the fund’s top 10 holdings.
Seven out of the top 10 holdings have Strong Buy ratings from analysts, including all five of the top five holdings. Analysts are particularly bullish on holdings like Amazon and Alphabet, which they collectively see as having upside potential of 50% and 43%, respectively.
Long-Term Performance
The Vanguard Growth ETF has a stellar track record over the long term. VUG suffered a 33.1% decline in 2022 as growth stocks struggled due to rampant inflation and rising interest rates. However, zoom further out, and VUG's performance looks a lot more impressive. VUG has returned 56.8% over the past five years and just under 200% over a 10-year time frame, even after accounting for last year's sell-off. Since its inception in 2004, VUG has returned 357.8%.
Dividend and Expenses
While it isn't necessarily enough to put VUG on the radar of income investors, this ETF is a
dividend payer that currently yields about 0.64%. In addition to this dividend, its bullish outlook from analysts, and its comprehensive portfolio of blue-chip growth stocks, one thing that really makes the Vanguard Growth ETF stand out is its minuscule expense ratio.
VUG features an expense ratio of just 0.04%, meaning that an individual investing $10,000 in VUG would pay just a negligible $4 in management fees over the course of a year. This is significantly cheaper than the 0.95% that Vanguard says is the average expense ratio for similar funds. Over the course of years and even decades, this can make a huge difference for an investor’s portfolio.
Assuming no change to the fee and a 5% annualized return, after 10 years, an investor with $10,000 in VUG would pay just $51 in fees over the course of the decade. Compare this to an ETF with an expense ratio of 0.5%, for example, and an investor would pay $50 in fees in just the first year alone. Over time, this makes a meaningful difference, and low fees like this can help investors preserve money.
Looking Ahead
While VUG is off to a nice start to 2023, analysts see more upside ahead, as discussed above. VUG could have more reversion to the mean coming after underperforming the S&P 500 (
SPX
) last year, as investor enthusiasm for growth and technology seems to be returning to the market based on a number of factors.
Inflation cooling down and the Federal Reserve slowing the pace of interest rate hikes would both bode well for growth stocks. Also worth noting is the fact that valuations for many growth stocks came down after last year's sell-off, meaning that valuation is now more palatable in many cases. Lastly, excitement over new innovations like consumer-facing generative
Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications like
ChatGPT is reigniting investor enthusiasm for tech stocks.
The Vanguard Growth ETF is a great way for investors who are just starting out to quickly gain instant, diversified exposure to a large group of blue-chip U.S. growth stocks, as 7 of the top 10 stocks enjoy Strong Buy designations based on TipRank's data.
Furthermore, with its low fees and strong historical performance, VUG is a great ETF for investors of all levels who want to have low-cost, broad exposure to growth in their portfolios.
Disclosure
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