Chinese search giant Baidu Inc will set up a venture capital fund of 1 billion yuan ($145 million) to back start-ups focused on content generated by artificial intelligence applications, it said on Wednesday.
On May 30, 2023 at 10:36:51 ET an unusually large $19,036.80K block of Call contracts in Microsoft (MSFT) was sold, with a strike price of $200.00 / share, expiring in 388 day(s) (on June 21, 2024). Fintel tracks all large options trades, and the premium spent on this trade was
Nvidia NVDA joined the trillion-dollar market capitalization club this morning, as its shares have surged more than 180% this year. Last week, analysts scrambled to raise their estimates for the company after its revenue guidance
UiPath (NYSE: PATH) stock is down over 75% since its IPO in April 2021. On the company's recent earnings call, artificial intelligence and generative AI were highlighted as future growth prospects. UiPath is also tracking toward profitability. Is UiPath stock a buy now, or is mor
When scouting for stocks, a standard metric that comes into focus is free cash flow. In its simplest form, free cash flow is the total cash a company keeps after operating costs and capital expenditures.
Cathie Wood’s
ARK Innovation Fund (
NYSEARCA:ARKK)
bills itself as investing in “disruptive innovation.” Unfortunately for ARKK ETF holders, it seems that ARKK missed out on at least the early stages of the rise of the most innovative and disruptive technological advance in recent times --
artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI, in particular.
Why Generative AI Should be in a Disruptive Innovation Fund
It’s hard to argue that the rise of AI, and specifically generative AI, isn’t the most disruptive technological breakthrough that we’ve witnessed in some time. For those unfamiliar with the term, Roundhill Investments defines generative AI as “artificial intelligence models capable of creating new, unique content (i.e., images, text, audio) by learning patterns and structures from existing data.”
Consumer-facing generative AI apps like OpenAI's
ChatGPT have gone viral and reached critical mass at an unprecedented rate. After launching in November 2022, ChatGPT hit 100 million users a mere two months later, becoming the fastest-growing application of all time.
And it’s not just ChatGPT -- investors and the public alike have been amazed by OpenAI’s Dall-E software, which can create elaborate images from text-based prompts. Recently, Adobe (
NASDAQ:ADBE
) unveiled its new Firefly generative AI engine, which enables users to edit images in Photoshop using just a text-based prompt.
While the average investor can’t invest in privately-held OpenAI, there are plenty of ways for investors to gain exposure to this type of innovation. For example, Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) owns a large stake in OpenAI. Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOG
) (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
) has its own answer to ChatGPT called Bard.
The aforementioned Adobe is also publicly traded. Meanwhile, ChatGPT and other generative AI applications are powered by Nvidia’s (
NASDAQ:NVDA
) semiconductors. Unfortunately, none of these names are found in the ARK Innovation ETF.
Conspicuous in Their Absence
ARKK stock is up nearly 30% year-to-date, so it’s hard to criticize its performance so far in 2023. However, the leaders in generative AI mentioned above are glaring in their omission from a fund that is focused on innovative and disruptive technology, and many of these names are up even more than ARKK.
Nvidia is up roughly 180% year-to-date, far more than ARKK. Last week, Nvidia reported blowout earnings and released show-stopping guidance for the current quarter, and the stock gained ~24% on the day, tacking on $184 billion to its market cap. To put things into perspective, Nvidia essentially added more than the entire market cap of Netflix (
NASDAQ:NFLX
) or Nike (
NYSE:NKE
) to its valuation in a single day.
As mentioned above, Nvidia is not owned by ARKK. Making matters worse for ARKK holders is the fact that ARKK had the prescience to own Nvidia long before it became the hottest name in the market. ARKK exited its Nvidia position over the course of last November to this January, missing out on the bulk of its massive year-to-date run.
In fairness to ARK Invest, the firm does own Nvidia in smaller funds like the
ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (
BATS:ARKQ)
and the
ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (
NYSEARCA:ARKW)
, but there’s no way around the fact that they missed out on a massive gain in its flagship fund.
A Matter of Valuation?
In an interview with CNBC this past February, Cathie Wood said that the fund sold Nvidia as part of the process of “consolidating around their highest-conviction names” and that part of the reason that Nvidia didn’t make the cut was that its valuation is very high. Wood isn’t wrong about this valuation per se -- after its monster earnings report, Nvidia now trades at a nosebleed 50 times forward earnings and 40 times consensus 2025 earnings.
It’s not a bad thing to take profits from some of your winners and consolidate them into your new best ideas, but unfortunately, the timing of this move didn’t work out in ARK’s favor. Furthermore, selling Nvidia based on its valuation makes some sense, although when looking at ARKK’s other top holdings, it doesn’t appear that valuation is a primary concern.
Below is an overview of
ARKK's top 10 holdings. Click on the image to learn more.
As you can see, Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) is the fund’s top holding, with a large weighting of nearly 11%. Wood is a longtime and prominent Tesla bull, and this pick has been a big winner for ARKK, as Tesla has returned 86% year-to-date, driving a large part of ARKK's overall gain. However, Tesla also trades at an expensive P/E multiple of 55 and a forward P/E of 39 times. While this is slightly cheaper than Nvidia, they are still clearly in the same ballpark, and both trade at valuations well above the broader market.
Meanwhile, other top-five holdings like Roku (
NASDAQ:ROKU
) and Coinbase (
NASDAQ:COIN
) are not yet profitable.
ARKK does own another AI play, UiPath (
NYSE:PATH
), in its top 10 holdings. UiPath specializes in workflow automation and trades at 46 times forward earnings and 41 times 2025 consensus earnings. So, again, it's another example of a holding where the valuation is not all that different from Nvidia’s.
Top 10 holding Crispr (
NASDAQ:CRSP
), focused on gene editing technology, is not yet profitable but trades at 50 times sales (a premium to Nvidia’s price-to-sales multiple of 36).
As touched on above, Nvidia isn’t the only name involved in generative AI that is missing from ARKK’s portfolio. The fund doesn’t hold any semiconductor names, and to put it simply, analysts from Susquehanna recently called semiconductors the "picks and shovels" of the AI gold rush. None of the mega-cap tech names like Microsoft, Alphabet, or Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
), which are all pushing their own advances in AI technology, are present. Software names like Adobe or Hubspot (
NYSE:HUBS
), which are integrating AI into their platforms, aren't present either.
Within enterprise software, however, in addition to UiPath, the fund has been buying Palantir (
NYSE:PLTR
), another stock that has benefited from surging investor interest in AI.
Further, the smaller ARK Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF holds a 4.4% position in Nvidia. It takes a bit of a different approach to artificial intelligence and owns many industrial names that are incorporating robotics and AI technology into their products ranging from agriculture and construction machinery giants like Deere (
NYSE:DE
) and Caterpillar (
NYSE:CAT
) to defense companies like Kratos (
NASDAQ:KTOS
) and Lockheed Martin (
NYSE:LMT
). As well, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF has
a 1.6% position in Nvidia, as well as small positions in Microsoft and Palantir.
Is ARKK Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
According to the collective ratings of 398 analysts, ARKK comes in as a Hold. 49.75% of ratings are Buys, 40.45% are Holds, and 9.8% are Sells. The
average ARKK stock price target of $49.81 implies 25.1% upside potential.
Looking Ahead
In summary, Cathie Wood and ARKK Invest certainly deserve credit for a strong rebound of nearly 30% so far in 2023. Still, you can’t help but feel that they missed out on perhaps the most "disruptive innovation" of all by selling Nvidia just before ChatGPT took generative AI mainstream.
Further, the fund doesn't have much other exposure to the other pioneers in the space, whether it’s other semiconductor companies or tech mega caps that have emerged as the early leaders in the AI revolution. At this point in time, based on its current holdings, it has to be said that ARKK doesn’t look well-positioned to truly capture the upside of the next era of revolutionary technological innovation.
Disclosure
Microsoft on Tuesday accused Britain's anti-trust regulator of being a global "outlier" in blocking its $69 billion takeover of "Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard.
Top artificial intelligence (AI) executives including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Tuesday joined experts and professors in raising the "risk of extinction from AI", which they urged policymakers to equate at par with risks posed by pandemics and nuclear war.
BHP Group BHP has collaborated with Microsoft MSFT to use new digital technology such as Artificial Intelligence, machine learning and cloud technologies to improve copper recovery at the Escondida operation in Chile.The Escondida
C3.ai’s AI fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results, to be reported on May 31, are expected to reflect strengthening momentum in its Subscription business.The segment, which primarily comprises term licenses, stand-ready COE support ser
Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) was founded in 2012, and its short history is jam-packed with innovation. The company reshapes the way businesses use data and develop applications, and it's currently breaking new ground in the artificial intelligence (AI) arena. Snowflake stock went publi
Fintel reports that on May 30, 2023, Deutsche Bank maintained coverage of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) with a Buy recommendation. Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 1.46% Upside
Fintel reports that on May 30, 2023, Wedbush maintained coverage of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) with a Outperform recommendation. Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 1.46% Upside
The Nasdaq led gains among Wall Street's main indexes on Tuesday, boosted by shares of Nvidia, amid optimism about lawmakers tentatively agreeing to raise the nation's debt limit to avert a default.
Microsoft on Tuesday accused Britain's anti-trust regulator of being a global "outlier" in blocking its $69 billion takeover of "Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard.
Wall Street closed sharply higher on Friday as investors grew hopeful about the lawmakers reaching a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avoiding a potential crisis. The rally was driven by tech stocks. All three major indexes
Top artificial intelligence executives including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Tuesday joined experts and professors in raising the "risk of extinction from AI", which they urged policymakers to equate at par with risks posed by pandemics and nuclear war.
Microsoft’s (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) proposed $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard (
ATVI
) has won regulatory approvals in over 35 countries. Nonetheless, the deal is facing opposition from
both sides of the pond: the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the
U.K.'s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), on concerns that it could hinder competition, especially in the emerging cloud gaming market. Several regulators and rivals like Sony (
SONY
) have also expressed concerns about Microsoft denying rival platforms access to popular game franchises, especially the highly successful
Call of Duty.
Call of Duty - A Roadblock in the Microsoft-Activision Deal
Launched in 2003, Call of Duty is a first-person shooter game that emerged as one of the most popular gaming franchises with a massive customer base. In mid-2022, Activision revealed that the Call of Duty franchise sold over 425 million units, generating more than $30 billion in revenue over its lifetime. Even in its most-recently announced results for Q1 2023, Activision stated that Call of Duty was “once again a key driver of growth.”
A
Wall Street Journal report noted that the U.K.’s CMA cited
Call of Duty 41 times in its 20-page summary detailing its decision to block the Microsoft-Activision deal. Further, the U.S. FTC mentioned the gaming franchise 18 times in its 23-page complaint. Meanwhile, the European Union gave its nod to the deal only after Microsoft assured that it would allow rivals to stream
Call of Duty and other Activision titles over the cloud.
In its complaint, the FTC said that
Call of Duty’s “loyal fanbase and enduring appeal have made it particularly valuable, influencing gamer engagement and gaming product adoption.” It noted
Call of Duty’s “sustained dominance” over the past decade, with the franchise titles comprising 10 of the top 15 console games sold between 2010 to 2019. The FTC highlighted that no other franchise had more than one title in the top 15.
Likewise, the CMA also expressed concerns that following the merger, Microsoft would find it “commercially beneficial” to make
Call of Duty exclusive to Xbox or available on Xbox on materially better terms than on Sony’s PlayStation. CMA believes that this would “substantially reduce” competition in gaming consoles much to the detriment of gamers.
Meanwhile, Microsoft and Activision have repeatedly assured that the deal won’t impact competition and they would license the franchise to rivals so that gamers can stream existing and future titles through the cloud gaming platform of their preference.
Last week,
Microsoft appealed to overturn the U.K. antitrust regulator’s decision to block the $69 billion Activision acquisition. The
tech giant seems determined to fight till the end. It has already signed deals with Boosteroid, Ubitus, Nvidia (
NVDA
), and Nintendo (
NTDOY
) to allow Xbox PC games to run on their cloud
gaming platforms. The 10-year deals give access to
Call of Duty and other Activision games if the acquisition wins regulators’ approvals.
Is Microsoft a Good Stock to Buy?
Despite the regulatory overhang related to the Microsoft-Activision deal, Wall Street analysts are bullish on MSFT based on the company’s diversified business model and aggressive push in the
artificial intelligence (AI) space.
Wall Street’s Strong Buy consensus rating on MSFT is based on 29 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell. The average price target of $331.14 implies the stock could be range-bound over the near term.
Shares have risen 39% since the start of 2023.
Disclosure
Wall Street's main indexes were set to open higher on Tuesday as lawmakers tentatively agreed to raise the nation's debt limit to avert a default, while shares of Nvidia led a rally among chipmakers and AI-related firms.
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, MSFT rates highest using our Twin Momentum Investor model based on the published strategy of Dashan Huang. This momentum model looks for a combination of fundamental moment