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1 Popular AI Stock I'm Not So Sure About

3 years 2 months ago
Database software veteran Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) has caught a tailwind in the artificial intelligence (AI) mania of 2023. Oracle's stock is up by 40% year to date, exactly matching sector rival Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). But I'm not so sure that Oracle's stock deserves that honor.
The Motley Fool

MSFT Quantitative Stock Analysis - Warren Buffett

3 years 2 months ago
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, MSFT rates highest using our Patient Investor model based on the published strategy of Warren Buffett. This strategy seeks out firms with long-term, predictable profitabili
Validea

Alphabet Stock (NASDAQ:GOOGL): Explosive Q2 Performance Strengthens Bull Case

3 years 2 months ago
Last week, Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) ( NASDAQ:GOOG ) posted its Q2 results, marking an explosive performance that, in my view, strengthened its bull case. Until recently, investors were still skeptical regarding the prospects of the online advertising behemoth in an ever-evolving landscape. The emergence of ChatGPT and Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) new Bing AI posed potential threats to Google's Search dominance, while TikTok's unwavering traction posed a risk to Youtube Shorts' success. These factors explain the market's prevailing uneasiness prior to Alphabet's quarterly report. However, Alphabet impressed investors and analysts alike, defying skeptics and leaving a lasting impression. The company not only exceeded Wall Street's estimates by a substantial margin but also demonstrated remarkable strength across all its products, even in the face of intensifying competition across the board. Accordingly, I remain bullish on the stock, which currently inhabits one of my largest positions. Q2 Breakdown: Strength in All Product Lines Alphabet's Q2 results were robust, with revenues growing by 9% (in constant currency) to $74.6 billion and earnings per share rising by 19% to $1.44 compared to last year. The company exceeded Wall Street's top-line consensus estimate by 2.5% and bottom-line estimate by 7.3%, demonstrating strength across both its ad business and Google Cloud. Let's take a deeper look! The Ad Business Alphabet's advertising business is not immune to the forces of the global economy. In times of economic uncertainty, enterprises tend to tighten their purse strings, leading to potential declines in consumer spending. Additionally, rising interest rates add another layer of concern for Alphabet's ad revenues, leaving the company exposed to macroeconomic headwinds. However, due to these challenging circumstances, Alphabet's ad business has displayed an impressive level of resilience. Despite contending with the impact of unfavorable foreign exchange rates and being measured against the strong performance of Q2 2022, when global ad spending was riding high, the company managed to achieve a remarkable 3.2% growth in ad revenues, reaching a substantial $58.1 billion. Google Search: In the Google Advertising & Search division, revenues experienced notable 4.7% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by a rebound in the retail industry. Remarkably, Search maintained its status as the flagship revenue contributor for the company, continuously expanding even in the face of rapid advancements in the AI industry. While ChatGPT has garnered incredible adoption with numerous users harnessing its exceptional capabilities, and Microsoft's newly-introduced Bing AI did manage to attract some user attention, Google's search platform once again showcased its unparalleled resilience against potential competition. Interestingly, it may seem like Alphabet is one of the more quiet players when it comes to promoting its AI developments. That said, management highlighted that almost 80% of its advertisers already use at least one AI-powered Search ads product. Hence, I wouldn't be fast to underestimate its potential in the AI space. Youtube/Shorts: Alphabet's Youtube division within its ad business also performed well, with Shorts capturing lots of consumer attention despite TikTok's continuous success. YouTube advertising revenues came in at $7.7 billion, up 4% year-over-year. Higher revenues were attributable to growing brand advertising, followed by strong consumer response (ad conversion), resulting in improved advertiser spending. In this division, management proudly announced that YouTube Shorts are now captivating an impressive 2 billion logged-in users every month, a remarkable surge from 1.5 billion merely a year ago. It's essential to highlight that Shorts ads were only introduced a year ago, and it wasn't until Q2 that brand advertisers could finally begin testing Shorts ads and awareness campaigns. Hence, Shorts has a massive runaway for ad revenue growth ahead. Google Cloud Alphabet’s Cloud segment also posted an outstanding quarter, with revenues growing 28% year-over-year to $8.0 billion. Importantly, this was the second consecutive quarter of positive Cloud operating profits, with the company solidifying that its rapidly-growing segment can remain consistently profitable. In particular, Google Cloud posted an operating income of $395 million, implying an operating profit margin of 5%. Alphabet continues to integrate its AI capabilities within its Coud offerings, which should continue to drive growth in this segment. For instance, through such integrations, the company was able to land Pfizer as a client, which is now using Google Cloud to transform its security operations. Given that the company hasn't even started cross-selling its different AI offerings, I remain highly optimistic regarding Google Cloud's growth prospects. Is Alphabet Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? As far as Wall Street's sentiment goes, Alphabet features a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 31 Buys and five Holds assigned in the past three months. At $149.45, the average Alphabet stock forecast implies 12.6% upside potential. If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell GOOGL stock, the most accurate analyst researching GOOGL (on a one-year timeframe) is Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan ( NYSE:JPM ), boasting an average return of 23.72% per rating and a success rate of 87%. Click on the image below to learn more. The Takeaway Alphabet's Q2 performance was nothing short of impressive, defying skepticism and solidifying its position as a continuously growing tech behemoth that is also highly profitable. The company showcased remarkable strength across all its product lines, especially in its ad business and Google Cloud segment. Despite potential threats from emerging AI technologies and competing platforms like TikTok, Alphabet's resilience and continued innovation set it apart. With its AI-driven solutions gaining traction and the potential for further growth, Alphabet remains an attractive investment opportunity, reaffirming my bullish stance on the stock.   Disclosure
TipRanks

NULG: Check Out This Large-Cap Growth ETF’s Strong Performance

3 years 2 months ago
With growth stocks back in vogue, the Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF ( BATS:NULG) has raced to a total return of 31.6% year-to-date. The ETF has put up a strong performance over the years that put it right in the mix with some of the market's largest and most popular growth ETFs, making it worth a closer look from investors. What is NULG ETF's Strategy?  NULG is a $1.12 billion passively-managed ETF from Nuveen, which is owned by fund giant TIAA. Its underlying index is the TIAA ESG USA Large-Cap Growth Index and it invests in large-cap U.S. growth stocks that meet its ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria. For readers not familiar with ESG, it is essentially a framework that some funds use to take a sustainable approach to investing. They do this by taking a company's environmental impact, social impact, and governance into account, in addition to traditional financial metrics. ESG investing has its share of proponents and detractors, which is beyond the scope of this article, but you'll see why it's not of paramount importance when evaluating NULG either way. NULG's Holdings NULG is fairly well-diversified with 113 holdings, and its top 10 holdings account for under 40% of its assets. While the fund is an ESG fund, I don’t read into that too much in terms of its holdings, as they are largely similar to what you would find in other large-cap U.S. growth funds that don’t screen for ESG metrics. See below for an overview of NULG’s top 10 holdings using TipRanks’ holdings tool. Top holding Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) has a large weighting here at 12.3%, but after that, the fund becomes considerably more diversified. Beyond Microsoft, NULG owns other mega-cap tech and growth stocks like Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) that have played a big part in driving the overall market higher this year. It also owns software heavyweights like Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) and Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ). However, there’s more to NULG than just big tech -- it also owns Visa ( NYSE:V ) and Mastercard ( NASDAQ:MA ), pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly ( NYSE:LLY ), and membership warehouse juggernaut Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ).    You’ll notice a lot of green in the table above, as this is a strong group of blue chip holdings with some very strong Smart Scores across the board. The Smart Score is a proprietary quantitative stock scoring system created by TipRanks.  It gives stocks a score from 1 to 10 based on eight market key factors. A Smart Score of 8 or better is equivalent to an Outperform rating. An impressive nine out of NULG’s top 10 holdings feature Outperform-equivalent Smart Scores of 8 or above.   NULG itself features an Outperform-equivalent ETF Smart Score of 8. Is NULG Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?  Turning to Wall Street, NULG has a Moderate Buy consensus rating, as 64.27% of analyst ratings are Buys, 30.74% are Holds, and 4.99% are Sells. At $70.36, the average NULG stock price target implies 9.7% upside potential. Track Record In addition to this desirable Smart Score and favorable rating from analysts, NULG has compiled a pretty solid track record in the years since its inception. As of the close of the most recent quarter that ended in June, NULG had a stellar one-year total return of 29.6%. Over the past three years, NULG’s annualized total return was 13.8%, and its five-year total annualized return was 15.6%. While NULG hasn’t been around long enough to post a 10-year return, since its inception in 2016, its annualized return has been an impressive 17.2%.  How do these results stack up to the broader market? NULG trails the Vanguard S&P 500’s ( NYSEARCA:VOO) three-year annualized return of 14.6% but beats its five-year annualized return of 12.3% by a decent margin.  Compared to other top growth ETFs, NULG slightly lags the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF’s ( NYSEARCA:SCHG) three-year total annualized return of 14.4% but comes in ahead of its five-year annualized return of 15.4% by the narrowest of margins. Additionally, NULG beats the Vanguard Growth ETF's ( NYSEARCA:VUG) total three-year annualized return of 12.6% and its five-year return of 14.5%. Based on these comparisons, NULG is right in the mix with these top growth ETFs as well as the broader market over the past three and five years, which is a great sign, as these are all great ETFs.  Fees and Expenses NULG’s expense ratio of 0.26% is reasonable enough, and there’s certainly nothing exorbitant about it. An investor putting $10,000 into NULG would pay $26 in fees in year one. While this isn’t bad, it should be noted that the much larger aforementioned growth funds, like VUG and SCHG, each have an expense ratio of just 0.04%, which is much lower than NULG’s, meaning that they would pay just $4 in fees in year one if they invested $10,000. However, over time, the gap between the NULG investor’s expenses and those of the SCHG or VUG investor would widen. Assuming the fees remain where they are now and that each fund returns 5% per annum, the NULG investor would pay $331 over the course of 10 years, while the VUG or SCHG investor would pay just $51 over the same time span.  So, while NULG’s expense ratio isn’t egregious, more cost-effective options abound, and the differences in expenses add up over time.  Investor Takeaway Overall, NULG looks like a pretty good ETF. It has a very strong portfolio, it’s rated highly by TipRanks' Smart Score and by analysts, and it has put up a performance in line with some of the market’s top growth ETFs over the past three and five years.  I don’t put that much weight into the ESG aspect of NULG, as despite running these ESG screens and picking stocks that meet the criteria, its portfolio isn’t all that different from that of a typical large-cap growth ETF.  The only issue with NULG is that while its fees are reasonable enough, they are higher than those of the bigger, more popular growth ETFs that it ostensibly competes with. So, while this ETF will likely continue to be a good investment over time, investors have to decide if there is a compelling reason to choose it over one of these similar ETFs with lower fees like VUG or SCHG.  If NULG can continue to keep the slight edge that it has maintained over VUG and SCHG on a five-year basis, it could be worth it, although past performance is never a guarantee of future results. Disclosure
TipRanks
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