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Does Wall Street Expect AMD’s (NASDAQ:AMD) Stock to Rebound Amid Multiple Headwinds?
Shares of chip giant Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and its semiconductor peers have been clobbered this year due to macro challenges, a decline in personal computer demand, and the Biden administration’s recently imposed restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. While most analysts are still bullish on AMD’s long-term prospects, near-term headwinds are too prominent to ignore.
AMD’s Numbers Reflect Near-Term PressureAMD spooked its investors earlier this month when it announced its preliminary third-quarter numbers. The company expects its Q3 revenue to come in at $5.6 billion, reflecting 29% year-over-year growth. This growth rate is significantly lower than the nearly 55% growth estimate issued by the company in August.
AMD blamed its decelerated Q3 growth rate on lower processor shipments in its Client segment due to weaker-than-projected demand in the PC market and “significant inventory correction actions across the PC supply chain.”
Moreover, the company now anticipates an adjusted gross margin of about 50% compared to its previous estimate of nearly 54% due to a fall in shipments in the Client segment and lower prices.
On the positive side, AMD reassured investors about significant year-over-year growth in the Data Center, Gaming, and Embedded segments, in line with the company’s estimates.
Is Advanced Micro Devices Stock a Buy?KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh slashed his price target for AMD stock to $100 from $130 to account for the dismal Q3 preliminary update. However, Vinh reiterated a Buy rating keeping in mind the company’s long-term prospects. Vinh stated, “While these results are disappointing, we remain Overweight AMD, as we still anticipate outsized growth long term, led by secular growth and share gains in data center.”
This week, Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore cut the price target to $70 from $80 and maintained a Hold rating on AMD stock. Heading into Q3 results, Seymore noted that concerns over fundamental deterioration are "leading to very bearish investor positioning.”
Overall, the Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 20 Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell. The average AMD stock price target of $97.50 implies 69% upside potential. Shares have declined nearly 60% so far this year.
ConclusionAMD’s long-term prospects remain bright, given the demand for its chips in data centers and AI amid rapid digitization. However, many analysts slashed the price target for AMD stock following the Q3 update, reflecting demand concerns over the near term. Overall, Wall Street seems cautiously optimistic about AMD stock due to a challenging business environment.
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Despite the Correction, Should You Bet on Semiconductor Stocks?
Semiconductor stocks have underperformed so far this year. For instance, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) are down about 60%, 59%, 48%, and 54%, respectively, year-to-date. Despite this significant correction, these stocks could stay under pressure due to multiple headwinds, including the slowdown in demand and the U.S. government’s new regulations for exports to China.
Recently, Lam Research delivered better-than-expected September quarter results. Its revenues of $5.07 billion came ahead of the Street’s expectations of $4.9 billion. Further, its adjusted EPS of $10.42 surpassed analysts’ estimates of $9.57.
While its top and bottom lines exceeded estimates, Lam Research expects the new U.S. export restrictions to negatively impact its financials by $2-$2.5 billion in the calendar year 2023. Earlier, Nvidia stated that it could lose $400 million in sales due to the new restrictions.
Providing his outlook on the semiconductor sector, Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland said, “We downgraded the Semiconductor sector in April ’21 based on a combination of high valuation multiples and “over-ordering,” and while multiples have indeed corrected, we still wait for excess inventory to work through the system (PC/Handset/Consumer working now; Industrial/Auto/Broad-based still yet to come).”
While Rolland doesn’t see a valuation risk, inventory and growing macro headwinds remain a concern.
Bottom LineWhile semiconductor stocks remain pressured, let’s see how they stack up on TipRanks’ valuable datasets. With the help of TipRanks’ Stock Comparison tool, here is a summary of how these stocks compare.
TipRanks’ data shows that Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of AMD, NVDA, and LRCX stocks. These companies sport a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks. However, analysts remain sidelined on Intel stock, which has a Hold consensus rating.
Further, AMD, NVDA, and INTC stocks have a Neutral Smart Score on TipRanks, and their stocks are likely to perform in line with the broader market. On the contrary, Lam Research stock has an Outperform Smart Score of nine out of 10, while analysts’ average price target of $498.65 implies 51.1% upside potential.