Nasdaq futures jumped more than 1% on Thursday, led by a surge in Nvidia after a blowout forecast, while talks on raising the U.S. debt ceiling showed some signs of progress.
European semiconductor stocks soared on Thursday after Nvidia reported a multi-billion revenue beat and booming adoption of artificial intelligence chips.
Thanks to the recovery in the shares of
technology companies, the Invesco QQQ Trust (
QQQ
), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index (
NDX
), has delivered a year-to-date return of 24.74%. While QQQ outperformed the broader market and most of its peers (refer to the graph below), the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (
SMH
) has edged past QQQ and registered a gain of 27.47% so far in 2023.
The SMH ETF, which tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index (which includes companies involved in semiconductor production and equipment), benefitted from the sharp recovery in the prices of chip companies like Nvidia
(
NASDAQ:NVDA
) and Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:AMD
).
It’s worth highlighting that NVDA stock has more than doubled this year. Further, it is up about 25% in the after-hours of trade following its stellar
Q1 beat and robust outlook on the back of growing
AI (Artificial Intelligence) demand. Meanwhile, AMD stock is up over 67% year-to-date. NVDA and AMD stock together account for 21.09% of SMH’s total holdings.
SMH has delivered an average annualized return of 22% in the past decade and is up about 675.5%. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index (
S
P
X
), QQQ, and NDX have gained nearly 149%, 395%, and 355%, respectively.
What is the Price Target for the SMH ETF?
The SMH ETF has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks. Among the 373 analysts providing ratings on the
holdings of SMH, 67.02% have given a Buy rating, 28.95% have assigned a Hold rating, and 4.02% have given a Sell rating.
Per the recommendations of 373 analysts, the 12-month average VanEck Semiconductor ETF price target of $148.56 implies 14.86% upside potential.
While the VanEck Semiconductor ETF outperformed broader markets and peers, its
expense ratio of 0.35% remains low, making it an attractive investment. Overall, SMH stock has an Outperform Smart Score of nine on TipRanks.
Disclosure
The Chinese government has barred the use of Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) products in key infrastructure applications in the country, citing national security risks, causing Micron stock to decline by about 3% in trading on Monday. So what is driving the ban and how big of an i
Advanced Micro Devices (
NASDAQ:AMD
) is a great company, but stock traders should consider waiting for AMD's valuation to cool down a bit before jumping into the trade. I am neutral on AMD stock and hope to catch it at lower price points for a confident buy-and-hold this year.
Advanced Micro Devices (which people typically refer to as AMD) is one of the most important microprocessor manufacturers in the U.S. The company has made mincemeat out of Intel (
NASDAQ:INTC
) in the semiconductor space, stealing much of Intel's market share and earning the industry's respect with best-in-class microchips.
As we'll discuss in a moment, AMD is even starting to make waves (with the help of a famous tech giant) in the
artificial intelligence (AI) hardware market. The problem is that the market is highly efficient and appears to have priced in all good news related to AMD and perhaps even some future good news that hasn't actually happened yet. Hence, while it's fine to believe in AMD as a company, it may be prudent to try timing your entry, which requires patience that some of today's traders might not possess.
AMD Stock Flies High Despite Lackluster Quarterly Results
Whereas Intel stock has
chopped around and basically gone nowhere, AMD stock has formed a series of what technical experts call
higher lows and higher highs. That's really just a fancy way of saying that AMD has stair-stepped higher, and undoubtedly some folks will see this as strongly-bullish price action.
Yet, value-focused investors should stop for a moment and consider whether AMD stock should have rallied so sharply. Less than a month ago, Northland analyst Gus Richard
raised his price target on AMD shares to $81, and Truist analyst William Stein
upped his price target on the stock to $84.
Already, AMD stock has blown past those two price objectives. It closed above $108 today and is currently near $117 in after-hours trading after Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
)
raised its guidance (AMD is rallying in "sympathy"). This occurred even though AMD's Q1-2023 revenue and earnings per share were only
moderately above the consensus estimate. Furthermore, AMD's current-quarter revenue forecast of $5 billion to $5.6 billion was softer than Wall Street's call for $5.5 billion.
As we'll touch upon shortly, analysts generally expect AMD stock to pull back slightly. This doesn't mean it's a great idea to short-sell the stock, as hype and momentum can carry it higher this year. Just be aware that the stock may have gotten ahead of itself, as AMD's GAAP trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 455.24x is substantially higher than the sector median P/E ratio of 23.99x, and its non-GAAP P/E of 35.9x is also much higher than the sector median of 18.2x.
AMD Jumps Headfirst Into AI Hardware with Microsoft's Help
It's already well-established that AMD makes fast, powerful microprocessors. For instance, the company's latest release of
Ryzen 7020 C-Series processors could hurt AMD's competition. Let's be honest, though -- today's investors want to hear about AI. So, how is AMD addressing the red-hot AI hardware market in 2023?
AMD is developing robust supercomputers and has scheduled an AI-focused livestream for June 13, but those aren't the headline stories here. The most significant news is that AMD is receiving support from none other than technology titan Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) in its pursuit of leading-edge AI hardware products.
By "support," I mean that Microsoft will work with AMD "on a homegrown Microsoft processor for AI workloads, code-named Athena," according to a
Bloomberg report via
Reuters. Not only that, but Microsoft will reportedly provide "financial support to bolster AMD's efforts."
Needless to say, it's a huge win for AMD to get operational and financial support from Microsoft. Still, this doesn't necessarily mean AMD will succeed in taking market share in the AI hardware field. Even with Microsoft in its corner, AMD could fall behind as it's certainly not the first entrant in the AI hardware arms race of 2023.
Is AMD Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, AMD stock comes in as a Moderate Buy based on 18 Buys and eight Hold ratings. Nonetheless, the
average Advanced Micro Devices stock price target is $99.35, implying 8.2% downside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell AMD stock, the most accurate analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Matt Ramsay of TD Cowen, with an average return of 58.14% per rating and an 86% success rate. See below.
Conclusion: Exercise Patience
With Microsoft's backing, AMD could generate robust revenue from AI-targeted hardware. Yet, this remains to be seen. Additionally, AMD's disappointing current-quarter revenue guidance indicates that the company's shares may be overvalued at the moment.
If Wall Street is right, AMD stock only has so much gas left in the tank and is due for a pullback. That would be fine, as a share-price dip of 10% or so would present a great opportunity to consider a buy-and-hold position, in my opinion.
Disclosure
Nvidia (NVDA), one of the biggest winners of 2023 and the most followed AI-related stock, rocketed higher in after-hours trading after reporting blowout Q1 earnings. Highlights include:
Nvidia Corp on Wednesday forecast second-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, as the growing popularity of artificial intelligence drives demand for its chips used in powering the technology at big data centers.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered a frenzy among investors in 2023. A flurry of start-ups showcased their AI projects, with OpenAI's online chatbot ChatGPT grabbing the most attention so far.
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