Slowly but surely, the world is coming to the realization that an investment in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is no longer just an investment in an electric vehicle company.
Tesla’s (
TSLA)
series of price cuts on its models this year has had the desired effect – after a period of waning demand, it has seen volumes increase to such an extent that the EV leader reported record deliveries of 466,140 in the second quarter.
However, the price reductions have had a less welcome result; lowering them has seen margins take a hit. But in order to support higher volumes, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney thinks Tesla will probably keep on slashing prices in 2024. And while the company has also been focused on cost reductions, the lower prices will mitigate any EPS benefit.
That said, even with the price reductions, Delaney expects Tesla will sell less vehicles than he previously anticipated in Q3. While in key geographies, the July and August regional Tesla sales data was above those seen in the first two months of Q2, to better account for what Delaney believes is “lower S/X demand and the impact of the changeover for the Model 3 Highland,” he has lowered his Q3 volume forecast to 460,000. Although boosted by the Highland launch, and factoring in better S/X volumes in the wake of the big price cuts, he anticipates a rebound to 494,000 in Q4. This brings Delaney’s 2023 delivery outlook to 1.842 million.
Nevertheless, given expected lower ASPs (average selling prices) and the lower prices’ effect on the auto gross margin (ex credit), Delaney has reduced his 2023 and 2024 EPS estimates to $2.90/$4.15, respectively, from the prior $3.00/$4.25.
“We are Neutral rated on the stock,” the 5-star analyst summed up, “with our expectation for near to intermediate term margin headwinds offset by our positive view of Tesla’s leadership position in the industry and long-term growth potential (including with software, services and opportunity in related markets like Energy).”
That on-the-fence rating is backed by a $275 price target (the same as before), indicating the shares will move a modest 4% higher over the coming months. (To watch
Delaney’s track record,
click here
)
What do others on the Street think? The majority sides, just, with Delaney. Based on a mix of 12 Holds, 11 Buys and 5 Sells, the stock receives a Hold consensus rating. The $270.8 average target suggests the shares will remain rangebound for the foreseeable future.
(
See Tesla stock forecast on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been one of the hottest stocks of 2023 so far. The electric vehicle (EV) maker's shares have skyrocketed more than 120%. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg.
Volatility has been readily apparent on Wall Street for more than three years. Investors have been taken for quite the ride, which has included two bear markets (2020 and 2022), as well as a period where the stock market appeared virtually unstoppable (2021).
EV (Electric Vehicle) giant Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) boasts of industry-leading margins, allowing it to aggressively cut the average selling price to sell more vehicles and maintain its leadership in the EV space. Now, with the
UAW (United Auto Workers) strike likely to drive up labor costs for its ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) peers, including General Motors (
NYSE:GM
), Ford (
NYSE:F
), and Stellantis (
NYSE:STLA
), Tesla will have more room to lower its prices and push volumes.
Last week, Ford Motor Company said the UAW’s proposals, if implemented, would more than double the company’s current UAW-related labor costs. Ford highlighted that its labor costs are already much higher than those of Tesla and other automakers who utilize non-union-represented labor. This will make it an uphill task for Ford, GM, and Stellantis to put up a fight against Tesla, as they are still in the early stages of the ICE to EV transition.
Echoing similar sentiments,
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, on September 15, said that he sees Tesla as one of the top beneficiaries of the strike. The production disruption and higher labor costs will make it tough for GM, Ford, and Stellantis to challenge Tesla’s leadership in the EV space. Ives is bullish about TSLA and has a price target of $350.
Investors should note that Ives is the most accurate analyst for TSLA stock, according to TipRanks. Copying his trades on TSLA stock and holding each position for one year could result in 70% of your transactions generating a profit, with an average return of 14.76% per trade.
As Tesla maintains its EV leadership, let’s look at what the Street recommends for its stock.
Is Tesla Share a Buy or Hold?
Per analysts’ consensus estimate, Tesla stock is a Hold. Even though Tesla is in an advantageous position compared to its peers, there’s too much uncertainty regarding TSLA’s margins, noted
Needham analyst Chris Pierce.
In a note to investors dated September 12, Pierce wrote, “TSLA's strategic differentiation vs mass-market OEMs has compressed, with TSLA embracing discounting as a lever.” The analyst has a Hold recommendation on Tesla stock.
Including Pierce,
TSLA stock has received 12 Hold ratings. Further, it has 11 Buy recommendations, while five analysts recommend a Sell. Analysts’ average price target of $270.80 is about 1.3% lower than current levels.
Bottom Line
Tesla’s focus on driving volumes through price cuts could pressure its peers to follow suit, thus affecting their profitability. Moreover, its ICE peers are already grappling with higher costs, making it challenging for them to chip away at Tesla’s market share. Further, Tesla is focusing on reducing the cost of manufacturing and, over time, expects its hardware-related profits to be supported by the acceleration of software-related gains, thus enabling the company to maintain its leadership in the EV space.
However, investors should be cautious as near-term pressure on margins and the year-to-date price gains could keep Tesla stock volatile.
Disclosure
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked Tesla CEO Elon Musk to build a Tesla factory in Turkey, Anadolu Agency posted on social media platform X on Sunday.
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