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Carvana Stock (NYSE:CVNA): Cracks are Finally Starting to Appear

2 years 11 months ago
Undeniably, online used-car dealership Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) sparked an astonishing rally this year against wild odds. However, cracks are finally starting to appear on its seemingly impregnable armor. Amid recent analyst downgrades and unfavorable broader industry shifts, speculators need to be careful about excessive exposure. Therefore, I am bearish on CVNA stock. Experts Weigh in on CVNA Stock Since the start of the year, CVNA stock has managed to return 650%. Earlier this year, the financial narrative focused on its prolific cash burn as well as its massive debut accumulation. Therefore, bankruptcy hardly seemed a remote possibility. Still, speculation alone can’t sustain a fundamentally flawed enterprise, which is where the experts come in. Late last week, Exane BNP Paribas analyst Chris Bottiglieri downgraded CVNA stock to Neutral from Outperform with a $37 price target. In particular, the market expert cited reduced confidence in unit growth. If so, Carvana shares will likely not be able to generate the robust returns that speculators have come to expect. As anyone can see with the rise and fall of the original meme stocks, when sentiment fades for these high-risk wagers, the rush to the exits tends to be intense, and the main worry is that the dynamic will be permanent. A little more than a week prior to Bottiglieri’s downgrade, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta – while raising the price target on CVNA stock to $25 (from $20) – maintained an Underweight rating, the equivalent of a Sell. It’s also worth pointing out that the $25 target still represents 26% downside risk against last Friday’s closing price. As well, within the past one-year period, only one analyst assigned a Buy rating for Carvana. Otherwise, the predominant sentiment – even with the skyrocketing of CVNA stock – has been the equivalent of a noncommittal Hold. Fundamentals Cloud Carvana’s Narrative In all fairness, while analysts’ opinions are important for their experience, acumen, and influence, they shouldn’t represent the sole catalyst for making an investment decision. They’re experts, but they’re also human. What truly makes CVNA stock a worrisome idea are the underlying fundamentals for the used-car retail segment. Basically, an influx of supply may put pressure on the industry. According to a UBS report, analysts estimate that worldwide auto production may overtake sales in the sector by 6% this year. If so, that might yield an excess of five million vehicles that will probably require price cuts to avoid the prospect of sitting inventory. Further, the cuts may materialize in the back half of this year. What’s more, automakers are already preparing for a price war. It’s not just empty speculation. Earlier this year, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) began slashing prices on its popular EV models, leading to competitor responses. If such actions replicate themselves in the used-car market, only the stoutest enterprises will survive. That doesn’t describe Carvana, irrespective of its progress in the charts. For example, in the second quarter of Fiscal 2023, Carvana posted total revenue of $1.96 billion, down heavily from the $3.88 billion posted in the year-ago quarter. However, when it came to the bottom line, it printed a net loss of $58 million. Yes, the company sharply pared the net loss of $238 million from one year ago. Still, this is an enterprise that needs the winds to move with it, not against it. A price war that negatively affects industry profits simply isn’t what CVNA stock needs right now. The Consumer Economy Doesn’t Help Another factor that threatens the viability of CVNA stock is the underlying consumer economy. According to data from S&P Global Mobility, the average age of passenger vehicles on U.S. roadways hit 12.5 years this year, a new record. Further, the average age for sedans jumped to 13.6 years. Facing a potential price war, Carvana must also manage a declining total addressable market. Due to broader economic pressures, people are determined to drive their cars until the wheels fall off. That mentality just won’t help CVNA stock. Is CVNA Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Turning to Wall Street, CVNA stock has a Hold consensus rating based on one Buy, 12 Holds, and four Sell ratings. The average CVNA price target is $41.06, implying 18.2% upside potential. The Takeaway: Time May Have Run Out for CVNA Stock While Carvana’s stratospheric rise caught many observers by surprise, a flawed enterprise can only cheat gravity for so long. That seems to be the case with CVNA stock, which has seen its armor crack in recent sessions. Further, a potentially upcoming price war might put a cruel end to this automotive Cinderella tale. Disclosure
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5 Critical, Market-Moving Themes to Monitor

2 years 11 months ago
Pre-election seasonality weakness trends played out in spades for US equities in the months of September and October. The S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), the most widely followed and heavily traded US equity ETF, gave back 1.77% in A
Zacks

Magnificent 7 Earnings Charts Ranked

2 years 11 months ago
For the first time in several years, there is no more FAANG or FANGMAN to talk about during the earnings season. It has been retired from the lexicon and has been replaced with the “Magnificent 7.”
Zacks

Stock Market News for Oct 17, 2023

2 years 11 months ago
U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday as investors awaited a deluge of corporate earnings results and shrugged off fears that escalated last week following the Israel-Hamas war. All three major indexes ended in positive terri
Zacks

TSLA Quantitative Stock Analysis

2 years 11 months ago
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for TESLA INC (TSLA). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, TSLA rates highest using our Small-Cap Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Motley Fool. This strategy looks for small cap growth stocks with solid fundament
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Is Elon Musk the Hero the Cannabis Industry Needs Right Now?

2 years 11 months ago
Earlier this year, there was excitement that the federal government might reschedule marijuana from a Schedule I substance down to Schedule III. It would be a big step toward decriminalization, which could help open up doors for the industry. But as with everything related to the
The Motley Fool

TSLA Earnings Preview: Here’s What to Expect from the EV Giant’s Q3 Results

2 years 11 months ago
Electric vehicle giant Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is scheduled to report its third-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, October 18. Investors remain focused on the company’s margins, given that CEO Elon Musk continues to slash prices to spur volumes amid growing competition and macro pressures. Analysts expect the company’s Q3 2023 earnings to decline compared to the prior-year quarter due to margin contraction. Expectations from Tesla’s Q3 Earnings Tesla reported better-than-anticipated Q2 2023 results. However, the company’s operating margin declined by a staggering 493 basis points year-over-year to 9.6%. During the Q2 earnings call, Musk dismissed worries about near-term margin variances, as he remains confident about the company’s vehicle autonomy technology driving long-term growth. As cautioned by the company, Tesla’s Q3 deliveries declined 6.7% compared to the second quarter due to planned shutdowns to upgrade factories. Still, Q3 2023 deliveries were up 26.5% compared to the prior-year quarter. Analysts expect the company’s Q3 2023 revenue to rise 13% year-over-year to $24.3 billion. However, they project adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to decline by about 30% to $0.73 due to lower margins.   Is Tesla a Buy or Sell Right Now? Last week, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois lowered his price target for Tesla stock to $250 from $265, while maintaining a Hold rating. The analyst commented that tracking Tesla’s fundamentals over the past few months “felt a bit like watching paint dry.” He argued that additional margin erosion in Q3 2023 and uncertain growth in 2024 raise questions on whether the EV maker’s earlier profit edge was “structural or a timing difference.”   Houchois contended that while non-auto features such as full self-driving (FSD), storage, and Optimus support TSLA stock, they cannot be yet seen as substitutes to speed and hyperscale in Tesla’s auto business. On Monday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter lowered his price target on Tesla to $290 from $300 and reiterated a Buy rating on the stock. Potter updated his model to reflect TSLA’s Q3 deliveries report and revised earnings expectations, with his estimates moving slightly lower. Potter thinks that Cybertruck and other growth initiatives "are on the horizon," and there is a reasonable possibility that Tesla’s margins will bottom in Q3 2023. That said, the analyst wouldn't be surprised if TSLA stock “trades sideways” in the months ahead. Coming to 2024, Potter anticipates growth in deliveries to slow before reaccelerating. However, he believes that this optimism is already baked into the Street’s estimates. With 12 Buys, 14 Holds, and four Sells, Tesla stock earns Wall Street’s Moderate Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $258.38 implies that the stock could be range-bound from current levels. TSLA shares have rallied 106% year-to-date. Insights from Options Trading Activity TipRanks now presents options activity to help investors plan their trades ahead of earnings releases. Options traders are pricing in a +/- 6.03% move on Tesla’s earnings. TSLA shares have averaged a (1.3)% move in the last eight quarters. In particular, the stock fell 9.7% in reaction to Q2 2023 results. The anticipated move is determined by computing the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to the expiration after the earnings announcement. Learn more about TipRanks’ Options tool here. Conclusion Wall Street expects Tesla’s margins to continue to decline in the third quarter and drag down earnings. Investors will look forward to Musk’s commentary on Cybertruck, the competitive landscape, and the margin trajectory. They would also pay attention to any comments on the impact of the ongoing UAW strike that is severely hurting rivals Ford ( NYSE:F ), General Motors ( NYSE:GM ), and Stellantis ( NYSE:STLA ). Disclosure
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