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Exxon Mobil Stock: Will an Impending Recession End Its Momentum?
Oil and gas stocks witnessed a terrific rally this year as the reopening of the economy revived demand. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine war triggered a major spike in oil and gas prices and further benefited these stocks. However, the Fed's decision to hike interest rates to tame inflation is expected to drive the economy into recession and adversely impact fuel demand, which has the potential to harm Exxon Mobil's (NYSE: XOM) stock momentum.
Exxon stock has advanced 43% year-to-date. However, the stock fell about 11% over the past month as oil prices were volatile amid fears of a looming recession.
Exxon CEO Sees Further Rise in PricesIn a recent interview with The Financial Times, Exxon CEO Darren Woods stated that he expects oil prices to continue to climb until such a rise triggers a renewed investment in output. Woods also blamed the soaring oil & gas prices on the pressure to transition to cleaner energy alternatives at a time when demand is robust.
Woods also feels that the global energy crisis has been caused by the initiatives to reduce emissions without addressing consumption. He added that governments not only failed to meet the "demand side of the equation" but also didn't understand the need for "a fairly robust set of alternative solutions if you're going to reliably and affordably meet the needs of people."
Wall Street's TakeLast month, Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta upgraded Exxon to a Buy from Hold and increased the price target to $125 from $115.
Gupta highlighted that the company has continued to invest in some of the most attractive oil and gas projects, which is different than what some of the several oil and gas majors have been doing, which significantly cut back their investments.
Gupta added that post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where crude oil, refined products, and natural gas supplies are constrained, Exxon's differentiated growth strategy will deliver "excellent returns for its investors."
Overall, the Street is cautiously optimistic about the stock, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 11 Buys and five Holds. At $105, the average Exxon Mobil price target implies 19.9% upside potential from current levels.
ConclusionOil prices might continue to remain volatile in the days ahead. The Russia-Ukraine war and shortage of refining capacity are expected to keep supplies tight and hence prices high. That said, a potential recession might hurt demand and be a drag on oil prices.
Goldman Sachs (GS) expects the price of Brent oil to average $135 per barrel in the second half of this year, while Citi (C) sees oil prices collapsing to $75 per barrel in 2023 on weaker oil demand.
Meanwhile, analysts at Bank of America (BAC) feel that if European sanctions force Russian oil production below nine million barrels per day, then oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel next year. However, they expect oil prices to plunge to $75 a barrel in 2023 in the event of a recession.
Overall, the stocks of Exxon Mobil and its peers could be volatile in the days ahead as demand and supply dynamics seem uncertain currently.
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Disney Stock: A Potential Bounce-Back Pick for 2H 2022
It's been anything but a magical year for Disney (DIS) stock, now down around 40% year to date. Though many may question CEO Bob Chapek's performance, the man is staying at the house of mouse for at least another three years.
Chapek's reign has not been great for shareholders thus far; with unneeded controversies and other issues plaguing the company, Chapek is still the man that transitioned the firm into the age of streaming.
Also, given profound macro headwinds weighing on streamers and media titans, it's hard to gauge Chapek's relative performance. Over the next three years, we'll find out if Chapek's plan will work out as Disney looks to steer through a potential consumer-facing recession and economic slowdown.
Of late, it's been mostly negative news relating to Disney and the economy's fate. Still, Disney is doing a lot of things right that could help the stock find a bottom and begin to rally off of it as soon as the second half. With Shanghai reopening its doors for summer after COVID-19 lockdowns, the parks business may finally lift a coming quarter rather than weighing it down.
Disney Stock: Too Much Bad News Baked InIt's not just parks and amusements; the Disney+ platform could begin to make significant strides over its competitors through the summer. The streaming platform also serves as an excellent hedge against a late-summer or early-fall COVID-19 resurgence.
The BA.4 and BA.5 variants of Omicron are becoming dominant strains. With seasonal booster shots and a reluctance to close the economy again, a return in 2020 is highly unlikely. That said, if worse comes to worst, anything is possible - and Disney is better prepared for such a worst-case outcome in the unlikely event that COVID-19 restrictions return.
I am bullish on Disney stock heading into the second half, even if Chapek can't pull another rabbit out of a hat going into a period of economic instability.
What's Bob Chapek's Next Move at Disney?Chapek will be known for dragging Disney out of the gutter in 2020 with its Disney+ streaming platform. Looking ahead, Disney seems poised to continue growing Disney+ as new releases continue flowing out of the pipeline. With such a strong content slate, it's arguable that Disney+ has the edge over Netflix, as it bleeds subscribers.
Further, Disney may wish to explore new frontiers in the digital realm. The metaverse and virtual experiences of tomorrow have been a hot topic. Many big-tech firms are committed to investing heavily in the effort.
Though the metaverse is still nascent, I do think Disney can make moves to ease such a transition — whenever it arrives. With Apple (AAPL) slated to pull the curtain on its headset in early 2023, the metaverse could be propelled to the forefront over the next three years of Chapek's contract.
Is Disney ready for the metaverse? Recent comments from Chapek regarding the nascent technology have been quite vague. However, Disney's newest cruise ship seems to incorporate compelling augmented-reality technologies.
Disney's cruise app reportedly has a "skyglass" augmented-reality feature that overlays constellations in the sky. It's an intriguing feature, to say the least. That said, many constellation apps have been in existence for quite some time.
In any case, Disney seems more than willing to embrace technologies to enhance the customer experience. However, that may not be good enough to make a big splash into the metaverse if it's poised for prime time within the next two years rather than the next two decades.
If Disney+ was the first act of Chapek's reign, a push into the metaverse and video games could be the second. The acquisition of a video-game behemoth could be the way to propel Disney into a new era of virtual experiences.
Of late, it's hard to ignore the growing number of video games leveraging various Disney brands. From Guardians of the Galaxy, developed by Eidos-Montreal, to the numerous slate of Star Wars games, it's clear that Disney's brands translate very well into gaming.
Rather than partnering up with developers, Disney may wish to acquire one, like Electronic Arts (EA) outright, to take gaming to the next level.
The video-game industry has undergone quite a bit of consolidation in recent years. Electronic Arts seems to be a great fit for Disney, given it's developed many of its Star Wars games and its expertise with sports titles, which would complement ESPN quite well.
Wall Street's TakeTurning to Wall Street, DIS stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 24 analyst ratings, there are 17 Buy recommendations and seven Hold recommendations.
The average Disney price target is $140.77, implying upside potential of 46.4%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $110.00 per share to a high of $229.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on Disney StockDisney isn't just a film and amusement parks company anymore. It's an entertainment company that's willing to explore new media.
As Chapek looks to explore new technologies to enhance the experience while potential second-half catalysts kick in for the parks, I think it'll be hard to stop a Disney stock turnaround in the second half.
Which ‘Strong Buy’ Dividend Stocks Face the Most Upside?
As the painful first half of 2022 ends, many income investors are hoping for some sort of relief. Many dividend stocks have seen their yields creep subtly higher in recent months as their share prices slowly trended lower.
For income investors, the current environment has been quite hostile to dip-buyers.
We've suffered quite a few short-lived bear market bounces this year. Many more are sure to follow.
Though the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery is diminishing with every swift move lower, there are still plenty of oversold stocks out there overdue for a relief bounce.
In this piece, we'll use the TipRanks Comparison Tool to evaluate three dividend stocks that Wall Street still views as "Strong Buys."
Broadcom (AVGO)
Broadcom stock is a designer and developer of semis and associated software. The chip stock plunge has been brutal to the $195 billion firm, which is now off 27% year-to-date.
The company recently agreed to acquire virtualization software company VMWare, in a deal worth $61 billion. Such a deal bolsters Broadcom's software presence, and given the timing of the deal (after a sizable decline in tech stocks), there's a good chance that Broadcom walked away with a bargain. Add potential synergies into the equation, and the VMWare deal is one that should be applauded by investors.
Despite Broadcom's diversification into software via M&A, the company is still subject to the ups and downs of the semi space. Though chip demand remains incredibly robust to date, there's no telling what a severe recession could entail for the chip maker.
On the one hand, networking chip demand seems to be on the uptrend, thanks partly to the resilience of the enterprise, who's still more than willing to invest in the digital transformation trend. On the other hand, it's difficult to gauge where demand will be at year-end if further evidence of an economic slowdown materializes.
If demand diminishes rapidly, any supply-chain ramp-up in response to the semi shortage could lead to discounting down the road. Over many quarters, chip demand has been high, but supply is constrained. Once supply is back in order, there's no telling where demand will be. For Broadcom, that's a major near-term risk.
In any case, I'm a fan of Broadcom's latest acquisition. It demonstrates that management is disciplined regarding prices they'll pay. At writing, AVGO stock trades at 6.7 times sales and 24.3 times trailing earnings. With a 3.38% dividend yield, Broadcom seems like a great value.
It’s not often that the analysts all agree on a stock, so when it does happen, take note. AVGO’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on a unanimous 13 Buys. The stock’s $700.58 average price target suggests a considerable upside of ~47% from the current share price of $477.84. (See AVGO stock forecast on TipRanks)
Shell (SHEL)
Shell is an oil supermajor that finally slipped into a correction after running with the energy bulls for over a year. Shell is a British firm with a simplified share structure, and a juicy 3.5% dividend yield following the latest pullback.
As oil prices creep higher again, it's tough to count out the energy giant as it looks to make the most of its oil and gas windfall. Over the long run, Shell is ready to transition into renewables, with an energy-as-a-service model that reacts accordingly to the times.
Indeed, renewables are the future, and Shell wants to be relevant in such a future. In the meantime, it's all about the upstream and marketing segments, which are still heavily influenced by the price of oil. As upstream slowly winds down production over the years, Shell may not be the go-to play to play a "higher for longer" type of environment.
In any case, the LNG (liquefied natural gas) business is an excellent transitionary energy that can help Shell slowly reduce its carbon emissions over the decades. With a low 0.7 beta and a modest 9.4 times trailing earnings multiple, Shell is a great stock to hedge your bets.
The 4 recent analyst reviews on this energy company break down 3 to 1 in favor of Buys over Holds, and support the Strong Buy analyst consensus rating. Shares are trading for $51.90 and the average target of $68.43 implies an upside of ~32%. (See SHEL stock forecast on TipRanks)
Hasbro (HAS)
Hasbro is a toy company that's slid about 20% year-to-date. The stock never regained its pre-pandemic highs. Now that we're talking about a recession, the stock has been downtrending again. While it's unlikely that Hasbro will revisit 2020 lows, it seems like a consumer recession could weigh heavily on holiday demand. For such a seasonal stock, recent macro headwinds are not encouraging.
Still, analysts are upbeat, with a "Strong Buy" rating. The stock is holding its own rather well through the recent wave of supply-chain disruptions. Just because the supply side is on the right track does not mean demand will remain robust going into year-end. Further, a continuation of COVID headwinds could also weigh heavily.
Though digital games and other technologies could steer spending away from toys, I do think there's no reason why physical toys and games can't co-exist. They have for years, after all.
For now, the retail stalwart is a low-cost income play. At writing, the stock trades at 1.8 times sales and 28.2 times trailing earnings, with a 3.34% dividend yield.
Overall, HAS stock has picked up 8 recent analyst reviews, which break down to 6 Buys against 2 Holds, for a Strong Buy consensus rating. The shares are trading for $81.35, and their $109 average price target indicates ~34% upside for the next 12 months. (See HAS stock forecast on TipRanks)
Conclusion
Many analysts have been lowering the bar on price targets and ratings on stocks of late. The following three names have retained their "Strong Buy" status and are great long-term plays for yield hunters.
Wall Street expects the most from Broadcom of the three names in this piece, with more than 40% in year-ahead upside.
To find good ideas for dividend stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
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