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Coinbase Stock Can Recover, but Competition Won’t Make It Easy

4 years 3 months ago

The cryptocurrency market went big in 2021, nearly tripling in value and closing the year at more than $2.2 trillion. Coinbase Global (COIN), a prime crypto brokerage, took advantage of the bull market and decided to go public in April last year.

However, the company's shares have shed more than 85% since. The primary reasons behind the fall are less crypto-trading activity and a fall in cryptocurrency prices, which are beyond Coinbase's control.

Unfortunately, the consistent decline in the stock price doesn't present a positive outlook for investors. However, Coinbase might turn up its profitability, given its operating flexibility.

So, whether Coinbase will weather the current downturn and honor investors remains a burning concern, making COIN a touch-and-go stock for now. Hence, we are neutral on COIN stock.

Coinbase's "Neutral" 5 out 10 Smart Score Rating also agrees with our sentiment. The stock can go either way.

A Shaky Start to the Year: Competition is Heating Up

Coinbase generates most of its revenue from commissions on retail trades, entailing that the stock has a high correlation to the crypto market. This means that any turmoil in the cryptocurrency market will have a dire knock-on effect on COIN.

The problem concerning COIN isn't internal. The Fed's decision to hike interest rates to combat inflation has swayed investors away from cryptocurrencies, damping the outlook for Coinbase, but this doesn't mean Coinbase is doomed. Instead, it just seems like right now is not a good time for crypto.

Back in 2021, when the crypto market was booming, Coinbase reported an annual profit of more than $3.6 billion on $7.8 billion in revenue. Both these figures outnumbered the top-line and bottom-line figures of the prior year. However, in the first quarter of 2022, Coinbase's revenue fell more than 35%.

The company missed analysts' revenue estimates as it earned around $1.17 billion versus the analysts' expectations of $1.48 billion. Also, monthly transacting users (MTUs) tanked to 9.2 million in the first quarter of 2022, down from 11.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.

In addition, the total trading volume reduced from $335 million in the first quarter of 2021 to $309 billion in the most recent quarter. All this resulted in Coinbase reporting a net loss of $430 million, or a loss per share of $1.98.

However, the crypto bear market isn't the only issue. Coinbase was forced to cut its fee on retail trades due to competition piling up. As a result, the company had to reduce its fees from 4% to 1.5%.

Recently, some of Coinbase's competitors eliminated fees on crypto trades to attract more customers to their platform. This factor alone has instilled fear in investors as Coinbase might experience a further drop. So, competition is another headwind that Coinbase must fight to reap profits.

Coinbase Has a Long Way to Go

Coinbase's first-quarter report is unsatisfactory, if not worse. Coinbase wants to evolve into a long-term play in the crypto market.

The company's letter to shareholders said, "We believe these market conditions are temporary, and we remain focused on our long-term growth." It also mentioned that Coinbase is focusing on the upcoming generation of crypto opportunities, so the profits are yet to arrive.

Emilie Choi, Coinbase's CEO, highlighted that the decline in the company's bottom line is due to increased spending that will reward the company in the long run. Coinbase's general and administrative expenses amounted to more than 52% of sales, up from 13.1% in the same quarter last year.

According to the company, the purpose behind these expenses is to strengthen customer support, compliance, and business support functions. Hence, the spending will help the company solidify relations with customers and regulators and earn profits in a few years.

Wall Street's Take on COIN Stock

Turning to Wall Street, COIN stock maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Out of 21 total analyst ratings, 13 Buys, six Holds, and two Sells were assigned over the past three months.

The average COIN price target is $118.95, implying 121.1% upside potential. Analyst price targets range from a low of $42 per share to a high of $290 per share.

The Takeaway – Watching from the Sidelines Seems Reasonable

Coinbase's operating loss suggests that the company is at its lowest. In addition, the reduction in crypto trading and immense competition pose significant threats for Coinbase, forcing it to increase efficiency and flexibility. These headwinds make it hard to convince investors that Coinbase could be a Buy.

However, considering the business size and brand power, the company may find ways to stay relevant and fight back more robustly. Coinbase could become a thriving business in some years, but it's likely best to wait on the sidelines for now.

Disclosure

Amazon Stock: Prime Is About to Get Stickier

4 years 3 months ago

E-commerce titan Amazon (AMZN) unveiled some pretty exciting innovations that could help it make a push toward the $2 trillion market cap mark — a level that was within reach less than a year ago.

Undoubtedly, Amazon Web Services continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, new services such as "Buy with Amazon Prime" open up the firm's logistics and payments solutions to the world.

Shares have been treading water alongside the rest of the broader market of late. Retail could find itself on the receiving end as the consumer recession approaches. Still, it's hard to count out one of the most disruptive forces in the tech scene, even if the macro picture isn't looking too great.

Amazon's Prime Service Coming into Its Prime

Indeed, logistics can be an incredibly capital-intensive business. Over the years, Amazon has steadily made the right investments (including overspending in recent quarters) such that it's now ready to offer storage and timely transport as a service.

Undoubtedly, Amazon could do to the logistics market what it did to the public cloud scene. In the beginning, Amazon was in-housing cloud for itself before opening up to the public.

I think "Buy with Prime" is a profoundly disruptive model that other retailers and Prime customers could embrace with open arms. Who wouldn't want the convenience of two-day shipping and quick payments?

The service is a one-two punch in the gut to the many payments companies out there who can't offer what Amazon can. Indeed, the number of payment buttons on commerce websites is growing, and promises of rapid delivery are key to winning the most clicks from shoppers.

It's not just the expansion of Prime delivery to other websites that makes Prime one of the stickiest services out there. The number of perks seems to be growing, with Amazon recently taking a small stake in GrubHub alongside announcing the inclusion of one year of GrubHub+ for its Prime members in the U.S. market.

Amazon's move into food delivery just makes sense. Over the next year, I think the food delivery market will feel the disruptive impact of the e-commerce behemoth.

Disrupting Markets That Are Ripe for Disruption

If there are economic profits to be had in a market where no single firm has formed a moat around its business, Amazon may swoop in like a hawk. Indeed, steep capital expenses are of no concern to the deep-pocketed behemoth that's used size to its advantage better than most other firms.

The food-delivery market, physical retail, digital payments, and logistics are just some of the key areas that Amazon could thrive in as it leverages the powerful network effects from its Prime service.

As interest rates rise and investors become less willing to pay for firms that continue spending money to stay competitive, we could witness a more aggressive push by Amazon. If it sees an opportunity to give potential rivals, especially smaller ones, a squeeze, it will do so.

In a higher-rate environment, where money isn't so easy, fortune could favor the behemoths like Amazon as they look to expand upon their disruptive capabilities.

By giving consumers a great value for their dollar, Amazon could make it out of any coming economic downturn far stronger than it entered.

Wall Street's Take on AMZN

Turning to Wall Street, AMZN stock comes in as a Strong Buy. Out of 39 analyst ratings, there are 38 Buy recommendations and one Hold.

The average Amazon price target is $176.38, implying upside potential of ~55%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $107.00 per share to a high of $270.00 per share.

AMZN's Smart Score Rating

Interestingly, AMZN has an 8 out of 10 Smart Score rating on TipRanks. This implies that it is likely to outperform the market going forward, which is in line with analysts' bullish stance.

The Bottom Line

Amazon's disruptive capabilities have not diminished. Though a recession could weigh heavily on coming quarters, Prime Day and other intriguing additions to the Prime service could help the firm continue to move forward, as most other retailers are set back.

It's becoming increasingly difficult to keep up with the e-commerce kingpin. With rates on the rise and growth on the descent, expect Amazon to apply even more pressure to many market incumbents that can't seem to form any sort of moat.

Amazon is putting its foot on the gas, and it's not a mystery as to why Wall Street analysts have remained so incredibly bullish on the name despite the recent 40% slip in the stock.

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article represents the views and opinion of the writer only, and not the views or opinion of TipRanks or its affiliates, and should be considered for informational purposes only. At the time of publication the writer did not have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

3 ‘Strong Buy’ Defensive Dividend Stocks for an Upcoming Recession

4 years 3 months ago

As the odds of a 2023 recession rise, many investors have been rotating out of risk-on stocks and back into cash and defensive dividend stocks. Though it's difficult to gauge the severity of the coming economic damage, one can't help but notice the pain that's already been inflicted on the broader stock market.

With such speculation drained from the markets, dividend payers with "Strong Buy" analyst ratings seem worthy of a second look. In this piece, we'll use TipRanks' Comparison Tool to have a closer look at three low-beta dividend stocks that are more than capable of dampening the downside.

Coca-Cola (KO)

Coca-Cola is the ultimate consumer staple stock that tends to be less influenced by the state of the broader economy. In good times and bad, people tend to drink plenty of Coke. With a mild recession, consumers could gravitate away from fancy dine-in restaurants that serve sparkling water and toward fast-food firms that serve classic Coke.

Year-to-date, shares of KO are up 7%, while the broader market plunged into a vicious bear market. The relative outperformance could easily continue as we march head-on into a consumer recession.

Though Coca-Cola has fared incredibly well in 2022, it's still had to grapple with the impact of inflation. As inflation headwinds pass, Coca-Cola seems poised for a decent run as it looks to move into "growthier" beverages such as ready-to-drink coffee and "healthy" flavored drinks.

With impressive emerging market exposure, a 2.8% dividend yield, and one of the strongest brands on the planet, investors can sleep well at night with the name. There's a reason Warren Buffett loves the stock and will probably never Sell.

The only knock against the stock at current levels is the rich valuation. Coke stock trades at 26.3 times trailing earnings and 6.7 times sales. That's pricier than certain imploded tech stocks. Indeed, defensive names come at a premium these days.

Overall, Wall Street is clearly interested in KO, as shown by the 17 analyst reviews the stock has picked up in recent months. These break down to 13 Buys and 4 Holds, for a Strong Buy consensus. The average price target of $70.94 suggests an upside of ~13.50% from the current share price of $62.50. (See KO stock forecast on TipRanks)

McDonald's (MCD)

McDonald's is another defensive dividend stock that's held up far better than the S&P 500 this year. Like Coca-Cola, the stock boasts a rather lofty multiple at 26.3 times trailing earnings and 7.9 times sales.

McDonald's trades at a tiny premium to Coke - at least on a price-to-sales basis. With such a great management team that's made the brand cool again with younger consumers, McDonald's has more room to run in the face of a recession.

With its Russian operations now sold, the firm is ready to move on with intriguing new product offerings, creative promos, and continued innovation in various technologies.

The Grand Big Mac, enhanced value offerings, and beefy ad spending could help McDonald's make the most of the coming economic slowdown. When times get tough, value triumphs - and few firms can offer better bang per buck than McDonald's.

Turning to Wall Street, many analysts have been quick to downgrade stocks across the board. McDonald's is one of few defensive names that may be in for upgrades as the bar is lowered across the entire market.

Analysts are very bullish. 21 Buys and two Hold ratings were given in the past three months. Based on those ratings, the average McDonald's price target is $280.26, implying ~10% upside potential. (See MCD stock forecast on TipRanks)

Walmart (WMT)

Speaking of value, it's tough to top the value proposition of Walmart, which continues to offer the best prices for a wide range of goods. As consumer sentiment sinks, low-cost retailers like Walmart could take share away from its pricier upscale rivals that may have fared better in 2021.

Inflation is hurting Walmart these days, with the pandemic still causing margins to drag. Such issues are temporary and could be resolved as soon as a few quarters. The management team is top-notch with its ability to steer through inflation storm clouds without startling the consumer with drastic price hikes.

As a recession strikes, look for the firm to push its Walmart+ service more aggressively. Retail is a wildly competitive place to be. A sticky subscription service could be the key to standing out from the crowd.

At writing, the stock trades at 26.4 times trailing earnings and 0.6 times sales. With a 0.52 beta, WMT stock is a great way to weave through a continuation of the market sell-off.

Overall, Wall Street is bullish, based on 22 Buys and five Holds assigned in the past three months. The average Walmart price target is $156.11, implying 24.5% upside. (See WMT stock forecast on TipRanks)

Conclusion

There's no shame in paying a bit more to play defense with a potential recession in the cards. The following three stocks have low betas, rich dividends, and capable enough managers to move through a period of economic weakness.

Of the three Strong Buy-rated stocks, Wall Street expects the most from Walmart over the year ahead.

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article represents the views and opinion of the writer only, and not the views or opinion of TipRanks or its affiliates, and should be considered for informational purposes only. At the time of publication the writer did not have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

PayPal: Q2 Earnings Could Be Rough — But the Stock Remains a Buy

4 years 3 months ago

Over the past 52 weeks, fintech giant PayPal (PYPL) has lost 75% of its value as investors began questioning the stock's growth prospects in the face of a looming recession. Two weeks from now, after close of trading on Tuesday, August 2, PayPal will get a chance to dispel those fears -- or confirm them -- when it reports its Q2 2022 earnings.

Ahead of those earnings, Wall Street is hedging its bets.

Case in point: In his earnings preview Thursday, RBC Capital analyst Daniel Perlin reiterated his "outperform" rating on PayPal stock. But citing "FX headwinds, coupled with what appears to be slowing ecom spending in Q2/22," Perlin nonetheless ratcheted back his expectations for PayPal stock -- and cut his price target by 16% to $92 per share. (To watch Perlin's track record, click here)

As the analyst explains, current consensus Wall Street estimates for PayPal's revenue and earnings (about $6.8 billion and $0.86 per share, respectively, for the fiscal second quarter) may be missing the fact that, with the U.S. dollar's value so strong relative to foreign currencies, PayPal's foreign-source revenues will probably be weaker than expected when translated back into U.S. dollars. With PayPal getting roughly 46% of its revenues from outside U.S. borders, this could be a bigger problem than a lot of investors realize.

Accordingly, Perlin is reducing his estimate for quarterly revenue to $6.7 billion -- slightly short of the consensus. Additionally, Perlin thinks that the Street is right in worrying about the economy slowing, and what this will do to PayPal's business. Citing consumer e-commerce spending data from Mastercard's SpendingPulse, Perlin notes that spending growth slowed by more than three full percentage points between Q2 and Q1 2022 -- a trend that's likely to sap both revenue and earnings strength from PayPal when it reports.

That's the bad news.

The good news is that Perlin sees more strength in PayPal's "other value-added services," a revenue stream that includes everything from revenue from partnerships and referral fees to services PayPal provides to merchants and consumers -- and also interest PayPal charges on loans to its customers, and interest PayPal itself earns from positive balances in consumers' PayPal accounts.

Such "OVAS revenue could surprise to the upside given higher rates and could help offset some of the FX headwinds," opines the analyst. And as a result, while Perlin sees revenues coming in slightly below estimates, his prediction of an $0.87 per share profit at PayPal this quarter is actually a penny above consensus predictions.

Perlin is also turning more cautious on PayPal's potential for profit in the more distant future, reducing earnings expectations 4% to $3.75 per share through the end of this year, and making a steeper 12% cut to his prediction for fiscal 2023 (now $4.60 per share), by which time the impending recession could be in full swing. Still, assuming he's right, this implies that PayPal stock is selling for only about 18.5 times current year earnings -- and that those earnings will still grow a very respectable 22% even in the teeth of a recession.

Only time will tell if he's right about those numbers, but if he is right, then paying 18.5x earnings for a 22% grower sounds like a pretty good deal -- and a good reason to keep recommending PayPal stock.

Looking at the Street’s consensus rating here, we can tell that Perlin's bullish view is mainstream. PayPal has 30 analyst reviews, breaking down to 25 Buys and 4 Holds – this gives the stock a Strong Buy consensus rating. The shares are priced at $73.91 with an average target of $116.42, somewhat higher than Perlin allows, and suggesting a one-year upside of 57.5%. (See PYPL stock forecast on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

Netflix Q2 Preview: Is the Show Over?

4 years 3 months ago
Once widely hailed and a staple in many portfolios, the tide has shifted significantly for Netflix NFLX throughout 2022. The chart below shows the year-to-date performance of NFLX shares while blending in the S&P 500.
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29 minutes 6 seconds ago
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