Nasdaq AMZN Amazon

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One of the pandemic’s most noticeable effects is in how it has transformed the way people shop. The move from brick & mortar to online shopping is one which was at play before Covid-19 hit. However, J.P. Morgan’s Doug Anmuth reckons the pandemic “pulled forward ~3 years of e-commerce growth.”

Going by US Department of Commerce data, US e-commerce spend increased year-over-year by 31.8% in 2020 to reach 19% of adjusted retail sales (sans food services, automobile & other motor vehicle dealers, and gas stations). This is far above the 6.3% the segment commanded out of total adjusted retail sales back in 2010. Giving credence to Anmuth’s belief that Covid has accelerated this transformation are the “~358bps of penetration” added in 2020, which amount to the largest ever increase in a single year. 2020 also marked the 11th consecutive year of double-digit e-comm growth. For context, during the same period, annual brick & mortar sales growth was in the 2-4% range.

By 2025, Anmuth thinks ecommerce will account for 30% of all retail sales and could eventually reach 40-50%.

And the company that has benefited the most from this shift in consumers’ behavior and looks exceptionally well-placed to continue to do so is ecommerce giant Amazon (AMZN). Not only that, as the e-comm pie expanded, Amazon “did not lose positioning,” and Anmuth thinks the anticipated growth means Amazon will soon be crowned the US retail king.

“Amazon’s share of US e-commerce increased to 39% in 2020 and AMZN should surpass Walmart as the largest US retailer in 2022,” the 5-star analyst said. “AMZN’s US GMV reached an estimated $316B in 2020 (+45% Y/Y ex-Whole Foods), accelerating from +22% in 2019, driving 39% share of US e-commerce and almost 8% of total adj. retail sales.”

It is the outsized growth in large and “under-penetrated” categories such as CPG/Grocery & Apparel, the 200 million+ subscribers of the Prime “flywheel,” and the “strong” 3P seller growth which Anmuth credits for Amazon’s “accelerated top-line growth.”

“Going forward,” the analyst summed up, “We expect the return of P1D shipping in the US & AMZN’s 50% Y/Y square footage expansion in 2020 to both drive & support future growth.”

As such, Amazon remains Anmuth’s “top pick” with an Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating and $4,600 price target. The implication for investors? Upside of 36%. (To watch Anmuth’s track record, click here)

While Anmuth is effusive in his praise, his take is by no means unique. All 31 recent analyst reviews are to Buy, naturally resulting in a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target currently stands at $4,295.17, suggesting one-year gains of ~26%. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are their own.)

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Here's some food for thought: The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, surged about 31.5% in 2019, followed by an 18.4% increase in 2020 -- and at the time of this writing, it's up a further 13.3%.

It doesn't require taking high risks to double your money in a stock. Some of the best candidates are often found among the top growth stocks that are already on everyone's radar.