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Amazon Stock Near 52-Week Low, What’s Next?
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) stock has declined significantly (over 36% this year) and is trading near the 52-week low. Besides the general market selling in tech stocks, the slowdown in e-commerce growth and inflationary cost pressure weighed on the shares of this internet giant.
What’s Next?Amazon’s guidance for Q2 indicates that the worst is still not over. Notably, its net sales growth rate has consistently lost steam over the past four quarters. For instance, Amazon’s net sales growth decelerated to 7% in Q1 of 2022 from 9% in Q4 of 2021. Moreover, Amazon expects 3-7% growth in its top line in Q2, implying further softness.
Tough comparisons and macro headwinds impacting consumer spending will likely pose challenges. While its top-line growth could slow further, incremental costs will likely pressure margins. In Q2, Amazon expects to incur about $4 billion in incremental costs due to inflation and productivity issues.
Now What?While Amazon’s weak near-term outlook and uncertainty over the economic trajectory could limit the recovery in the stock, the momentum in its cloud business is a bright spot. During the last reported quarter, Amazon’s cloud business delivered net sales growth of 37%.
Its growth could reaccelerate as comparisons ease. Meanwhile, pressure on its margin will ease as it laps the higher cost environment in the second half of this year. Amazon will also likely benefit from solid capital investments in its cloud and consumer business. However, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett has a different view and remains sidelined on AMZN stock.
Crockett stated, “Amazon’s multi-year extraordinary out-performance in retail has substantially diminished. We expect that to persist. Other elements of Amazon remain secularly hearty, including AWS. Progression towards retail maturity and heightened macro risks move us to a lower long-term multiple assumptions.”
While Crockett remains sidelined, most Wall Street analysts believe Amazon could bounce back strongly due to its leadership position in e-commerce and cloud and maintain a bullish outlook on the stock.
For instance, AMZN stock has received 36 Buy, one Hold, and one Sell recommendations for a Strong Buy consensus rating. Meanwhile, the average Amazon price target of $178.56 implies 68.2% upside potential to current levels.
Bottom LineAmazon faces multiple sales and margin headwinds in the short term. However, the company's market leadership in consumer and cloud business suggests that its growth could reaccelerate as the operating environment improves. Further, easier comparisons in the coming quarter could limit the downside risk.
AMZN stock has an Outperform Smart Score of 8 out of 10 on TipRanks. Further, hedge fund managers (bought 1.5M AMZN stock in the last quarter) and retail investors are accumulating AMZN stock on this dip.
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Roku Stock: Walmart Partnership, Takeover Rumors Could Reignite Interest
Shares of streaming platform firm Roku (ROKU) are now sitting down around 83% from their all-time high hit just under a year ago. Despite the severity of the decline, ongoing rate-induced pressures, and rising competitive threats in the streaming space, innovation investor Cathie Wood is not yet ready to throw in the towel on the name. Arguably, she's grown even more bullish, scooping up shares on the dip.
Roku: Is a Netflix Takeover all it Has Going for it?With recent rumors surrounding a potential takeover by streaming kingpin Netflix (NFLX), Roku stock seems to be back in the headlines. Still, investors should take such rumors with a fine grain of salt. Netflix is in the business of creating content, and I find it doubtful the firm would want to get into the business of streaming hardware.
Streaming hardware just isn't the same growth engine it used to be. It's a commoditized product that faces tremendous competition, not just from big-tech firms but from next-generation smart TVs, which may render streaming hardware obsolete.
Does Roku face an existential threat as it looks to make a splash in content production? It's hard to say. I'd argue that Roku lacks a moat, making it vulnerable to more deep-pocketed rivals like Amazon (AMZN).
Had Netflix not been in such rough shape, I'm sure a Roku-Netflix deal would have made a lot of sense. With Netflix also attempting to pivot and regain its formerly rich valuation multiple, I'd argue that the firm is likelier to go down the route of organic innovation, rather than scooping up another firm with more than its fair share of baggage.
It's hard to stay bullish on Roku stock at these depths with a seeming lack of catalysts. However, I remain bullish, as the 3.8 times sales multiple is absurdly low and discounts the firm's recession resilience. And let's not forget that Roku can solve its problems through innovation. Roku is a Cathie Wood stock for a reason, after all!
For these reasons, I remain bullish, even as most other investors turn against the stock.
On TipRanks, ROKU scores a 8 out of 10 on the Smart Score spectrum. This indicates a potential for the stock to outperform the broader market.
Roku Teams up with Walmart on Intriguing Ad ConceptIn an intriguing move, Roku announced its partnership with Walmart (WMT) to bring e-commerce to televised ads. It's definitely not a concept that many consumers are familiar with. Still, it's one that could pay significant dividends for both firms, especially as the American economy heads for a recession.
Through the intriguing ads, Roku viewers can purchase items from Walmart through Roku's streaming service. While only time will tell if the partnership pays off, I find the move very interesting. And one that could mark a leg of growth for the ailing streamers.
It's an innovative concept, to say the least. And one that could find itself being copied by the likes of retail and streaming heavyweight Amazon.
Further, it's not just ads that could entice users to buy items via the Roku platform. Product placement and strategically-placed ads could mark the next frontier in digital advertisement. The one-two combo of product placement and the convenience of buying from ads within Roku, I believe, could be unstoppable.
The Walmart partnership signals that Roku is still very much innovating. The company realizes that stream sticks are commoditized, and it's ready to move on. I'm a big fan of Roku's dealings with Walmart and think it could be the start of a very fruitful relationship that could see the latter scoop up the former.
Recession on the Way? Roku Could Outpace RivalsIt's not just ads where Roku could innovate; Roku is a pioneer in the free, ad-based streaming tier with its Roku Channel. As Roku Channel gains more content, viewers could flood in, especially those who recently canceled Netflix to save money.
Arguably, the Roku Channel is one of the lowest-cost forms of entertainment (it's effectively free to Roku users), and that could begin to pay off as economic times get tough.
Wall Street's TakeAccording to TipRanks’ analyst rating consensus, ROKU stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 23 analyst ratings, there are 17 Buy recommendations, five Hold recommendations, and one Sell recommendation.
The average Roku price target is $152.26, implying an upside of 84.8%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $80.00 per share to a high of $240.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on Roku StockAlthough higher rates don't bode well for innovative growth firms like Roku, its recession resilience could more than offset potential rate-induced economic headwinds on the horizon.
Teaming up with Walmart on an intriguing new ad concept proves that Roku is unwilling to back down without a fight. Should the Walmart-Roku deal show promise, I'd argue that Walmart is a far better suitor than Netflix.
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