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Netflix Stock (NASDAQ:NFLX): The Growth Phase is Over. Time to Sell?

3 years 1 month ago
Netflix's ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) growth phase has undoubtedly come to an end. Not too long ago, Netflix stood out as one of Nasdaq's ( NDX ) fastest-growing companies. Yet, the substantial surge in competition in recent years has flooded the SVOD/streaming sector, halting Netflix's once-unbridled growth trajectory. Despite the now-oversaturated SVOD industry looking increasingly worse, NFLX stock has rallied more than 67% over the past year. This could be a strong selling opportunity. Thus, I am bearish on NFLX stock. Netflix's Growth Era is Likely Over Netflix's era of growth was truly spectacular, with the company's competitive offering disrupting the much less convenient and value-for-money cable TV. Impressively, its compound annual revenue growth rate (CAGR) between 2010 and 2020 was 20.7% -- a massive rate to sustain over such a prolonged period. Even in subsequent years, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, Netflix grew swiftly, capitalizing on the constraints imposed on out-of-home entertainment and solidifying its status as an essential service. Sadly, these days are now behind us. Not only has Netflix already captured a massive chunk of its addressable market, but the surge in competition over the past few years has completely blocked its growth prospects. Giants like Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), AT&T ( NYSE:T ), and Comcast ( NASDAQ: CMCSA ), alongside numerous smaller players, have penetrated the market, prompting consumers to subscribe to multiple services. In the meantime, all services have been hiking their prices rapidly. How is this different from cable TV, excluding the on-demand element? Therefore, it's no wonder that Netflix has an extremely hard time growing in the current market landscape. The consistent deceleration in revenue growth is proof of this. In its most recent Q2-2023 results, revenue growth came in at just 2.7%. This compares with 8.6%, 19.4%, 24.9%, and 26.0% achieved in equivalent periods of 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 respectively. The consistent year-to-year deceleration in revenue growth is unmistakable. Based on the current trajectory, it looks like Netflix is likely to experience declining revenues sooner than later. Don't forget that Disney+'s ( NYSE:DIS ) subscribers have been declining as well, as they fell by 12 million to 146.1 million quarter-over-quarter, according to Disney's Fiscal Q3 report, coming in way below the forecast of 154.8 million. This clearly illustrates the ongoing market havoc in the streaming industry. Netflix may prove more resilient due to its long-standing brand and staple-like nature, but for how long? Extended Rally Offers Opportunity for an Exit Given the less-than-rosy outlook for the streaming industry, it might seem logical for investors to be hastily divesting from Netflix stock. While shares are certainly trading well below their peak pandemic levels, they have still managed to record an impressive rally of more than 70% over the past year. This resurgence likely owes itself to the Nasdaq's broader recovery during this period, alongside the fact that investors might be gravitating toward the one profitable streaming company among the junk. This paradoxical event may offer investors a great opportunity to exit the stock, especially those who made some series gains during this rally. With growth having essentially ceased while the stock's valuation has once again ascended to astronomical heights, convincing reasons are not hard to come by. In particular, Netflix stock is currently trading at nearly 36 times this year's projected earnings. This multiple is utterly unjustifiable, with revenue growth down the drain and interest rates rising. One could argue that investors are betting on earnings growth, but ultimately, this is highly speculative. If anything, a halt in revenue growth could compress margins against rising costs, leaving shareholders with a stagnated company that trades at a very premium valuation. This sounds like the perfect formula for a significant share price plunge. It certainly doesn't like the place I would want to have my money invested. Is NFLX Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? Wall Street seems to have a different view on Netflix, as the stock has attracted a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 19 Buys, 13 Holds, and two Sells assigned in the past three months. At $466.39, the  average Netflix stock forecast implies 15.1% upside potential. If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell NFLX stock, the most accurate analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is  Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer, with an average return of 32.07% per rating and an 88% success rate. Click on the image below to learn more. The Takeaway Netflix's meteoric growth phase has undoubtedly concluded, marked by surging competition and a decelerating revenue trajectory. The streaming landscape, once ripe for disruption, has transformed into a crowded arena where established giants and nimble newcomers vie for subscribers' attention and dollars. While NFLX stock has displayed an unexpected rally, the underlying reality remains clear: the industry shift and valuation metrics are compelling signals for a prudent exit. Disclosure
TipRanks

WIX, AMZN, NOW – 3 Strong-Buy-Rated Tech Stocks with AI Upside

3 years 1 month ago
With stock markets on the retreat again, thanks in part to technology names giving some gains back, dip buyers may have an opportunity to get AI exposure at a lower price of admission. The Wall Street community isn't ready to give up on tech stocks, especially the ones with AI upside potential, such as WIX, AMZN, and NOW. Undoubtedly, AI was the most talked about trend in the first half of the year, thanks to the impressive launch of ChatGPT. Though August has seen many of the AI winners come down a bit, I think it's quite a stretch to conclude that this is the beginning of the end of an AI bubble. There's no question that certain AI plays have gotten overvalued, perhaps insanely overvalued. That said, throwing in the towel on the broader basket of AI stocks just doesn't seem wise, especially as under-the-radar AI innovators incorporate generative AI technologies into their products to help drive sales growth and cut down on overhead expenses. Therefore, in this piece, we'll take a look at TipRanks' Comparison Tool to check out three AI-savvy tech stocks that may be worth another look as they retreat as part of a broader tech-concentrated pullback going into fall. Wix ( NASDAQ:WIX) Wix is an Israeli software company that makes it easy for non-coders to build their websites. Undoubtedly, web development services, like drag-and-drop site builders, can be pretty commoditized these days, with numerous domain hosts and e-commerce firms also offering such services. Still, Wix is a company that stands out above the pack, thanks to its rich set of tools that can really help clients create a customized site that looks as though it were developed by a professional web developer. Not only do Wix sites look better than the pack, in my opinion, but they're also intuitive to use. As new generative AI features work their way into the platform, expect Wix to become more capable and even easier to use. After the nasty collapse in the share price in 2021, I view Wix as one of the forgotten innovators that investors should give another chance, partially due to unrecognized AI upside, but also because the stock has fallen too heavily out of favor in recent years. Personally, I couldn't be more bullish as Wix sails into the AI age. The company recently pulled the curtain on AI Site Generator and AI Assistant for Business. I expect such generative AI technologies could help Wix climb out of its historic funk. At writing, WIX stock is down around 75% from its all-time high of over $360 per share. The stock has come back quite a bit over the past year (up 21%), thanks in part to strong first- and second-quarter results, which both handsomely topped expectations. Following the company's most recent (Q2) beat ( $1.26 EPS vs. $0.59 consensus), management hiked its full-year sales forecast, now expecting $1.54-1.56 billion in revenue, up from $1.52-1.54 billion. At 3.5 times price-to-sales, well below the infrastructure software industry average of 8.4 times, WIX stock stands out as a potential AI bargain. Many analysts agree. What is the Price Target on Wix Stock? Wix stock is a Strong Buy on TipRanks, with 16 Buys and five Holds. The average WIX stock price target sits at $115.00, entailing 31.8% upside potential. Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN) Amazon is the e-commerce and cloud behemoth that has a lot of room to run as consumer spending climbs higher while Amazon Web Services (AWS) demand heats up again. Though the potential of Amazon's generative AI service Bedrock (a service that helps build generative AI apps) is likely partially priced in here, I don't think investors are giving the e-commerce giant enough credit for its sound footing in the AI race. With AI built on top of AWS, I view Amazon as every bit as competitive as a company like Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ). Though Amazon stock has blasted off 56% year-to-date, I'm not ready to give up on the stock and am staying bullish as shares look to hit new highs again. It's probably just a matter of time before Amazon returns to its pre-crash heights of around $188 per share, even with the latest slip in markets. The company is going into the second half with the wind at its back. AWS experienced growth that was better than expected, potentially signaling that the cloud-cutting and efficiency days may be nearing an end. AWS with AI could mark the next stage as businesses look to unlock the full power of their data to bolster growth rates. CEO Andy Jassy seems to think "cost optimizations" are "moderating and maybe behind us" when it comes to larger firms. As AWS pushes further into the AI age, it certainly seems like growth re-acceleration is the name of the game over the next year. What is the Price Target on Amazon Stock? Amazon is a Strong Buy, with 40 Buys and one Hold assigned by analysts in the past three months. The average AMZN stock price target of $174.13 entails 30.5% upside potential. ServiceNow ( NASDAQ:NOW) ServiceNow is a software-as-a-service company that's more than halfway recovered from its 51% peak-to-trough fall. Shares are up over 60% from their lows following the latest slump off 52-week highs. I view the dip as unwarranted, given the monetization potential of new generative AI offerings and the latest impressive quarterly beat. Though NOW stock is on the pricier side at 79.1 times trailing price-to-earnings (well above the 30.9 times of the application software industry average), I'm staying bullish as ServiceNow doubles down on AI as the technology enters what CEO Bill McDermott views as "the biggest inflection in the history of information technology." ServiceNow isn't just well-equipped for the inflection point; it already has a front-row seat with the right AI partners, like Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and Accenture ( NYSE:ACN ), and innovations in place. What is the Price Target on ServiceNow Stock? ServiceNow is a Strong Buy on TipRanks, with 26 Buys and one Hold. The average NOW stock price target of $638.69 implies 17.5% upside potential. Conclusion As tech falters, AI plays may be worth checking out on the way down. Of the three stocks mentioned in this piece, analysts see the most gains coming from AMZN and WIX shares, at over 30% upside potential each. Disclosure 
TipRanks

VettaFi Voices On: The Coming End of Earnings Season

3 years 1 month ago
Hi VettaFi Voices, we are heading toward the last week of the Q2 earnings season. Now seems like a good time to assess how things have gone so far and what we can expect from next week. Has it been a strong or weak earnings season? And have the reported earnings shown any kind of [...] Read more at ETFtrends.com.
ETF Trends

5 Top Tech Stocks to Invest in Now, According to Analysts – August 2023

3 years 1 month ago
Following a challenging 2022 for the technology sector, 2023 has witnessed a renewed surge of optimism regarding the capacity of these companies to drive innovations. The prevailing focus on artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted businesses across sectors to explore its integration into their offerings, which augurs well for the sector's future prospects. However, inflation, interest rates, and supply-chain disruptions remain headwinds for the sector. Thus, leveraging the TipRanks  Stock Screener tool, we have shortlisted stocks that have received a Strong Buy rating from analysts. Further, analysts’ price targets reflect upside potential of more than 20%. Finally, these stocks have an Outperform  Smart Score (i.e., 8, 9, or 10 out of 10) on TipRanks, indicating a relatively high chance to outperform the broader market.  Here are the five key stocks from the tech sector that investors can consider. Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) – Amazon.com provides online retail shopping and cloud computing services. Analysts currently see upside potential of 30% in AMZN stock. Also, it has a  Smart Score of 8 out of 10. Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) –This software company manufacture of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software. In the last four days, 11 analysts rated the stock a Buy. The stock’s price forecast of $521.77 implies 20.4% upside potential. NVDA stock has a  Smart Score of 8 out of 10. Taiwan Semiconductor ( NYSE:TSM ) – Taiwan is a multinational semiconductor manufacturing and design company. TSM stock has upside potential of 36.4%, according to analysts, and a  Smart Score of 8 out of 10. Alibaba Group ( NYSE:BABA ) – Alibaba is a provider of e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology services. Following upbeat Q2 results released on August 8, 12 analysts rated the stock a Buy. BABA stock’s average price target implies upside potential of 55.8%. Moreover, it has a  “Perfect 10” Smart Score. Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) –  AMD produces semiconductor products and devices. The stock has an average price target of $141.90, which implies 35.9% upside potential from current levels. Also, its  Smart Score of 8 out of 10 is encouraging. Disclosure
TipRanks

3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Right Now

3 years 1 month ago
With earnings season in full swing, many stocks are on the move. Macroeconomic headwinds have continued to plague companies in the tech industry this past quarter that otherwise have solid long-term outlooks. As a result, now is an excellent time to fill your portfolio with tech
The Motley Fool

Validea Detailed Fundamental Analysis - AMZN

3 years 1 month ago
Below is Validea's guru fundamental report for AMAZON.COM, INC. (AMZN). Of the 22 guru strategies we follow, AMZN rates highest using our P/B Growth Investor model based on the published strategy of Partha Mohanram. This growth model looks for low book-to-market stocks that exhi
Validea

5 Top Stocks Likely to Top Earnings Estimates

3 years 1 month ago
It is not surprising that before an earnings season, every investor looks for stocks that can beat market expectations. This is because investors always try to position themselves ahead of time and look to tap stocks that are high
Zacks

2 Simple Stocks to Buy With $200 Right Now

3 years 1 month ago
Investing can be as straightforward or as complicated as you want it to be. There are businesses to own that are difficult to understand without specialized expertise and others that are very easy to grasp. Which type to buy is a decision investors must make for themselves.
The Motley Fool
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