The Justice Department began questioning a former Google executive about billion-dollar deals with mobile carriers and others that helped keep Google the default search engine, as the second day of a once-in-a-generation antitrust trial got underway on Wednesday.
The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings oft
Shares of Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN fell 1.3%, with tech stocks sliding.Shares of Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY jumped 11.2% after reporting first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings of $4.52 per share, widely surpassing the Zacks Consen
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has enjoyed one of the best years in its 30-year history, with its stock up 214% since Jan. 1. The company has thrived amid a boom in artificial intelligence (AI), producing the hardware necessary to move the industry forward. Countless companies across tech
One of the most significant tailwinds in the last two decades is e-commerce, which led to the creation of many successful e-commerce companies. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Shopify are arguably the two best-performing companies in this industry.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq ETF has gained about 32% this year and 5% in the past three months (as of Sep 11, 2023) but the rally was concentrated. The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks — Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Nvidia NVDA, Alphabet (GOOG
Which stocks are best to buy now? According to Top Wall Street Analysts, the three stocks listed below are Strong Buys. Each stock received a new Buy rating recently and has a significant upside as well.
To find more stocks like these, take a look at TipRanks’
Analyst Top Stocks tool. It shows you a real-time list of all stocks that have been recently rated by Top-ranking Analysts.
Here are today’s top stock picks, according to analysts. Click on any ticker to thoroughly research the stock before you decide whether to add it to your portfolio.
Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN)
– Amazon is a multinational technology company engaged in e-commerce, cloud computing, online advertising, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence. Yesterday,
Barclays analyst Ross Sandler maintained a Buy on the stock with a price target of $180. All 31 Top Analysts who recently rated the stock gave it a Buy. Collectively, their 12-month price targets imply an upside of nearly 24%.
PDF Solutions (
NASDAQ:PDFS)
– PDF Solutions is a multinational software and engineering services company. Yesterday,
Northland Securities analyst Gus Richard reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $50. All three Top Analysts who recently rated the stock gave it a Buy. Taken together, their 12-month price targets imply an upside of about 44%.
Inozyme Pharma (
NASDAQ:INZY)
– This clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company develops treatments for diseases impacting the vasculature, soft tissue, and skeleton. Yesterday,
Bank of America Securities analyst Tazeen Ahmad reaffirmed a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $12. INZY stock has received Buy ratings from all three Top Analysts who have recently rated it. Overall, the consensus 12-month price target suggests an increase of about 382%.
Who are the Top Analysts?
TipRanks ranks financial analysts according to the success rates of their ratings and the average return on each of their ratings. See real-time analyst rankings and learn more about the performance of Top Analysts on TipRanks’
Top Wall Street Analysts page.
Disclosure
The road to investing success is paved with mountains, molehills, and ditches. If you only invest in secure stocks, your money probably won't skyrocket, but it will grow at a solid and steady pace. If you have more of an appetite for risk, you're likely to face many ups and downs
The world is racing to reduce carbon emissions to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. The bulk of that focus has been on cutting the amount of carbon emitted into the air by switching energy sources from fossil fuels to cleaner alternatives. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has bee
India's Reliance Retail is in talks with existing investors including the sovereign wealth funds of Singapore, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia for combined new investments of around $1.5 billion, three sources with direct knowledge of the plan said.
Designed to provide broad exposure to the Large Cap Growth segment of the US equity market, the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 10/13/2020.
The Vanguard Russell 1000 ETF (VONE) was launched on 09/22/2010, and is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Large Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.
The Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSLC) was launched on 09/17/2015, and is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Large Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.
In recent years, you could pretty much count on Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) to deliver earnings growth. But rising inflation and general economic woes hurt the e-commerce giant last year and even drove it to its first annual loss in nearly a decade. The good news is that things are sta
Back when the COVID-19 crisis temporarily capsized the global economy, the definition of office attire shifted dramatically, benefiting athletic leisurewear specialist Lululemon (
NASDAQ:LULU
). However, both economic and social circumstances have pivoted away from favoring the apparel retailer. Adding to the woes, institutional investors may be signaling the risk of future downside. Therefore, I am bearish on LULU stock.
The Unpleasant Backdrop for LULU Stock
Back in December 2020, an op-ed from
The Washington Post noted that the U.S. workforce was having its “pajama moment.” Naturally, this framework benefited Lululemon. Formal office attire was out. Casual wear was in. However, shifting circumstances no longer decisively favor LULU stock, posing anxieties for shareholders.
For one thing, major corporations appear to have had enough with the aforementioned pajama moment. Now, they want – no,
demand – their workers to return to the suit-and-tie moment. For example, TipRanks contributor Steve Anderson pointed out that Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
)
issued an ultimatum regarding its return-to-office mandate. Other companies could follow suit.
Moreover, and just as pertinent for LULU stock, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that
inflation remains too high. Therefore, it’s not out of the question for the central bank to issue more rate hikes. Of course, higher borrowing costs stymie business growth. Subsequently, such a hawkish framework could force mass layoffs, and the threat of such could cause workers to obey return-to-office directives.
Fundamentally, that would be a negative double whammy for LULU stock -- lose to competitors selling professional attire and also lose to monetary policy.
To be sure, most analysts remain generally optimistic about LULU stock. Still, the
most recent assessment comes from Bernstein’s Aneesha Sherman, who pegged Lululemon as a Hold. Also, the expert’s price target landed at $366, implying 5.7% downside potential.
Unfortunately, that might not be the only source of rough news for LULU stock. Indeed, options traders don’t seem very confident.
Smart Money Seemingly Anticipates Downside for Lululemon
While analyzing the
options market (where the smart money often plies its trade) isn’t a foolproof trading strategy, it’s a valuable practice, nonetheless. Basically, professional traders – or better yet, institutional investors – have resources and information that regular retail investors do not. However, deciphering the options arena helps to even the playing field.
For LULU stock, one of the biggest concerns is that following the expiration of the $420 calls on October 20, 2023, the options flow screener I use (which looks for big block trades likely made by institutions) presently shows no major bullish activity in 2024 and early 2025. Instead, the only significant transactions feature negative sentiment.
Specifically, traders bought
$300 puts with an expiration date of June 21, 2024, and bought
$280 puts with an expiration of January 17, 2025.
More importantly, the volatility smile – or the implied volatility (IV) of options plotted at various strike prices – for LULU stock presents a concerning profile. Basically, IV is relatively muted at the strike prices closest to the open market price and beyond. In sharp contrast, IV spikes higher in the strike prices much below the open market price.
Technically, this setup suggests that options traders are hedging their bets against tail risk (basically, a black swan event). If so, that doesn’t bode well for LULU stock.
Financials Present a Contrasting View
Despite some worrying signals for LULU stock, it would be unfair to characterize the underlying apparel retailer as wholly troubled. Indeed, as TipRanks contributor Nikolaos Sismanis pointed out, Lululemon
posted a top-and-bottom-line beat for its second-quarter earnings report, part of the reason why Sismanis is bullish on LULU.
Looking at the financial performance, it’s not an unreasonable assessment. For example, Lululemon saw significant growth in its international business, thanks in large part to China. Also, Sismanis mentioned that Lululemon benefits from superior economies of scale because of its business expansion initiatives.
While not disputing this framework, a fundamental challenge is that social trends for attire may shift (i.e. back to work). Also, the rumblings in the derivatives market imply that professional traders don’t share the same optimism for LULU stock.
Is LULU Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, LULU stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 15 Buys, three Holds, and one Sell rating. The
average LULU stock price target is $439.68, implying 15.4% upside potential.
The Takeaway: Caution is Key for LULU Stock
Although Lululemon continues to perform impressively, the major headwind it faces is a shifting consumer economy. Whether from a return to the office or a decline in the economy (or both), the athletic apparel retailer may not be able to depend on prior upside catalysts. With the smart money seemingly hedging their bets, investors, at the very least, should approach LULU stock with skepticism.
Disclosure
Amazon's stock (
NASDAQ:AMZN
) has rallied by an impressive
66.7% year-to-date. The big question is whether it's a wise move to chase the stock. The current momentum behind the e-commerce and cloud behemoth is undeniably enticing, whether you're considering adding to your existing position or initiating one. However, my optimism wanes when I look at Amazon's current stock price. Despite some positive Q2 highlights, the stock's current valuation is very difficult to justify. As a result, I'm neutral on AMZN stock.
Amazon's Retail Business is Growing, but Profits Remain Thin
Amazon's retail business has historically held back the company compared to its rapidly growing AWS segment. Nevertheless, growth in retail resumed in Q2, and the company was even able to reverse last year's operating loss into an operating profit.
Specifically, the North American Retail division posted net sales of $82.5 billion, implying a year-over-year increase of 10.9%. The division's operating profit also came in at $3.2 billion, greatly improving from last year's operating loss of $627 million.
While Amazon's North American Retail division undoubtedly marched in the right direction in Q2, when we step back to examine the broader perspective, the overall outlook appears less enchanting. In fact, the $3.2 billion in operating income still implies an operating margin of just 3.9%. This suggests the following two issues:
Firstly, the division's net income (although not directly reported) is even thinner when accounting for the interest expenses (due to debt) related to that segment.
Secondly, such a thin margin means that operating income can easily turn negative again during unfavorable trading periods. This includes temporarily weaker consumer demand or inflation pressuring Amazon's expenses.
In the meantime, Amazon's International Retail business continues to record losses. The division's sales grew by 9.6% to $29.7 billion. However, its operating loss came in at $895 million. That's a lot of money to lose on an operating level from a business that's supposed to have matured significantly at this point.
AWS Growth Decelerates, Profit Margins Shrink
Turning to the AWS segment, I believe that Amazon's crown jewel is losing its appeal. For starters, the segment’s growth has been gradually decelerating. Just take a look at AWS' revenue growth rate in recent quarters:
Q1-2022: 37%
Q2-2022: 33%
Q3-2022: 27%
Q4-2022: 20%
Q1-2023: 16%
Q2-2023: 12%
The gradual sequential deceleration couldn't be more evident. At its current pace, I wouldn't be surprised if the segment's growth were to slip into the single digits in Q3-2023. So, what's the reason behind this gradual deceleration? The answer is very straightforward -- rising competition. The days when AWS was roaming freely in Cloudland are over. Alphabet’s (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
)(
NASDAQ:GOOG
) Cloud and Microsoft’s (
NASDAQ:MSFT
) Azure are constantly battling for market share.
This is evident in both these companies' cloud segments, whose higher growth rates suggest they are capturing market share faster. Specifically, Alphabet's Google Cloud grew its revenues by 28%, while Microsoft's Azure grew its revenues by 26% during the same period.
If that didn't signal bad news already, AWS' operating income declined compared to last year. It landed at $5.4 billion compared to $5.7 billion in the prior-year period. Clearly, this result demonstrated the effect growing competition can have on a company's ability to scale its profitability. Amazon seems to be investing more in AWS to remain competitive, and even then, the segment's growth can't really impress.
Has Amazon's Valuation Run Ahead of Itself?
In my view, Amazon's valuation may have run ahead of itself following the stock's year-to-date rally. On the one hand, Amazon's total operating income improved in its most recent Q2 results, primarily due to the North American retail division reversing last year's operating losses. On the other hand, I just cannot see how Amazon can make enough money in the coming years to justify its $1.46 trillion market cap.
For context, consensus estimates point to Amazon reporting EPS of $2.17 this year. This implies an absurd forward P/E ratio of about 65x. While EPS is expected to grow further to $3.03 in fiscal 2024, again, that implies a very rich P/E of around 46.6. These forward multiples are notably higher than those of the S&P 500 (
SPX
) and most mega-cap stocks. Given the razor-thin margins in the retail segment and the declining profits in AWS, it's very hard to argue that Amazon stock is not overpriced at its current levels.
What are Analysts Saying About AMZN?
Turning to Wall Street, Amazon continues to boast a Strong Buy consensus rating despite its elevated valuation. This is based on 39 Buys and one Hold assigned in the past three months. At $175.63, the average
Amazon stock price target suggests 24.4% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell AMZN stock, the most profitable analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is
Ross Sandler from Barclays, with an average return of 30.47% per rating and a 79% success rate. Click on the image below to learn more.
The Takeaway
Overall, while Amazon's year-to-date rally may be tempting to chase, caution is warranted. Despite some positive developments in Q2, the stock's current valuation appears stretched and challenging to justify.
The Retail segment's thin margins and the deceleration in AWS growth due to increased competition raise concerns about the company's ability to sustain its current valuation. With an exorbitant P/E ratio versus most market benchmarks, it's hard to ignore the possibility that Amazon stock could undergo a valuation compression, shedding away its recent gains. Accordingly, I remain neutral on AMZN stock.
Disclosure
Wall Street stocks ended lower on Tuesday as Oracle shares tumbled more than 13% after a weak forecast and surging oil prices deepened worries about persistent price pressures ahead of crucial inflation readings this week.
Wall Street stocks ended lower on Tuesday as surging oil prices deepened worries about persistent price pressures ahead of crucial inflation readings this week, while Oracle slumped after a downbeat forecast.