The S&P 500 has been in rally mode this year, and after a brief stumble, the upward trend has resumed. In the week ended Nov. 3, the widely followed index jumped nearly 6%, marking its best performance for any week so far this year.
Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Enfusion Inc (Symbol: ENFN), where a total of 1,987 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 198,700 underlying shares. That amounts to about 73.3% of E
Shares of Affirm Holdings surged by nearly 25% on Thursday as strong demand for the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) lender's services and higher interest rates underpinned quarterly results that beat analysts' estimates.
Investors in Amazon.com Inc (Symbol: AMZN) saw new options begin trading today, for the December 29th expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the AMZN options chain for the new December 29th contracts and identified one put and one
Shares of Affirm Holdings surged by nearly 25% on Thursday as strong demand for the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) lender's services drove quarterly results that beat analysts' estimates.
At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed the latest batch of the 20 most recent 13F filings for the 09/30/2023 reporting period, and noticed that Amazon.com Inc (Symbol: AMZN) was held by 12 of these funds. When hedge fund managers appear to be thinking alike, we find it is a good
More than two dozen unions urged U.S. auto safety regulators on Thursday to open an industry-wide probe into driverless vehicles including Alphabet's Waymo and Amazon.com's Zoox.
The launch of OpenAI's generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, ChatGPT, sparked a technology hype cycle that has created boatloads of shareholder returns this year. One big beneficiary of this trend has been Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) with its stock price up by a whopping 62%
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The iShares Russell Top 200 ETF (IWL) was launched on 09/22/2009, and is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to offer broad exposure to the Large Cap Blend segment of the US equity market.
Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY), an e-commerce marketplace for craftspeople and vintage goods, has fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. Financial results were lackluster in the third quarter of 2023, and despite e-commerce sales heating up elsewhere (like t
Last week was a great one for the S&P 500, with the index scoring its best weekly performance of the year. And two stocks participating in these gains are ones that could drive the index higher in the near term and over time. These companies have shown their strength in the p
Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOGL) (
NASDAQ:GOOG) is the undisputed leader in the global technology industry, with a wide range of products and services that are familiar to billions of people. That alone sums up the case for Alphabet; it has no equal in what it does, and it is far ahead of the competition. The company is also making huge investments in its AI segment and reaping the benefits. Don't let the market's reaction to some of its growth figures fool you; Alphabet remains unparalleled.
However, the market seems to have a short-term memory and a tendency to overreact to minor setbacks. Alphabet’s stock price has fallen in the past month due to a lower-than-expected growth rate in its Cloud business, as well as regulatory challenges in various markets. These factors have overshadowed the company’s strong fundamentals and long-term potential and have created a buying opportunity for savvy investors, in my opinion.
In this article, I will argue that Alphabet is potentially a Strong Buy for long-term investors based on its impressive growth and competitive advantages. I am bullish on Alphabet, and I believe that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on its "moat" (competitive advantage) and continue to deliver superior returns to shareholders.
Slowing Cloud Growth Disappointed Investors
Google delivered
a solid earnings report for the third quarter of 2023, beating analysts’ expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. However, the market was not impressed by the performance of its Cloud business, which grew by 22% year-over-year.
Now, let's attempt to understand why the cloud growth is so disappointing. The primary culprit seems to be that it lagged behind its main rival, Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT), which reported a 29% increase in its Cloud revenue on the same day.
To be fair, Google’s cloud growth was still faster than Amazon’s (
NASDAQ:AMZN) AWS, which grew by only 12%. However, analysts had anticipated a higher growth rate for Google Cloud, given that it is the third-largest player in the cloud market and has been investing heavily in expanding its infrastructure and offerings.
The Lesson Wall Street Never Learns
Google has been facing regulatory challenges in various markets, such as the
antitrust lawsuits in the U.S. and Europe. It also faced downward pressure from the disappointing cloud growth mentioned above. It seems that no matter how many times these sorts of things happen, the lesson doesn’t stick.
Alphabet has faced lower-than-expected earnings, growth, and other hiccups since its inception, and it’s clear that no amount of those hiccups will ever mitigate the cold, hard facts. Google is utterly dominant in its space, and little can stop or even slow this behemoth.
Google still has a durable moat that protects its core business and enables it to generate high returns on invested capital regardless of those headwinds. Google’s moat is based on several factors, such as its unparalleled scale and reach, with over four billion users across its platforms and over 96% market share in global search. Additionally, network effects create a virtuous cycle of more users, more data, more advertisers, and more revenue, reinforcing its dominance and creating barriers to entry for competitors.
Its innovation and diversification allow it to create new products and services that enhance its ecosystem and expand its addressable market, such as Google Cloud, YouTube, Google Play, Google Maps, and numerous other services. Another component is its brand value and reputation, which make it one of the most trusted and recognized names in the world and attract top talent and partners.
The ideas above are probably not surprising to investors, but their importance seems to be understated year after year. These factors give Google a sustainable edge over its rivals like Microsoft’s Bing and enable it to generate consistent growth, profitability, and cash flow despite the regulatory challenges. Therefore, I believe that Google’s moat is still very much intact and that it will continue to deliver value to its shareholders in the long run.
Google Cloud’s Growth Slowdown Isn't a Reason to Panic
Despite the Cloud growth slowdown, I think the market is overreacting and missing the bigger picture regarding Google Cloud’s potential and performance.
The key question that investors should ask is not how fast Google Cloud is growing but how much market share it is gaining. Google Cloud is growing faster than the overall cloud market, meaning that it's taking market share from its competitors.
In fact, Google Cloud and Microsoft are the only two players that are gaining share, while Amazon is holding steady and the rest are losing ground. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon together account for 66% of the cloud market.
Now, we need to understand how big this opportunity is for Google Cloud. Based on current projections, the cloud computing market is expected to grow at 14% annually through 2030, according to
Research and Markets, reaching a whopping $1.6 trillion in size. Google Cloud is projected to grow at 21% annually through 2028, reaching $81 billion in revenue. That’s just the Cloud business.
Onto profitability, we know that Amazon and Microsoft are making lots of money from the cloud, but Google has been lagging behind. Maybe all that revenue growth will come at the expense of margins and earnings?
Not so fast. Google Cloud is not only growing, but it's also profitable. It reported an operating profit of $1.2 billion in 2023, and it is expected to grow that figure to nearly $18 billion by 2027. That’s a staggering 15-fold increase in operating income from Cloud in four years.
So, let's get this straight. Google Cloud is growing faster than the market, gaining share from its rivals, generating huge revenue and profits, and becoming the main driver of Google’s future growth, but the market’s reaction is to sell the stock?
That makes no sense, in my opinion. Google Cloud looks like a great reason to buy Google, not to sell it. I believe the market is being irrational about Google Cloud’s growth slowdown, and I think it is a great opportunity to buy Google at a discount.
Is GOOGL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, GOOGL has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 26 Buys and six Holds assigned in the past three months. At $152.67,
the average GOOGL stock forecast implies 15.8% upside potential.
Conclusion
Warren Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” I believe that the fear surrounding Google’s regulatory environment and competitive landscape creates an opportunity to buy a great company at a reasonable price.
Disclosure
The stock market has suffered a persistent decline over the last few months with the benchmark S&P 500 index sinking 10% between Aug. 1 and Oct. 27. Here's why:
Covered-call ETFs that use options strategies to generate exceptionally high yields have been immensely popular over the past couple of years. Investors have poured more than $20 billion into these ETFs in 2023 so far, per Bloombe
Amazon on Wednesday was ordered to pay $46.7 million in damages by a jury in Delaware federal court that found the tech giant's Alexa virtual assistant violates patents related to speech recognition and natural language processing.
While single-event catalysts such as earnings disclosures can have an unusually large impact on an exciting enterprise like Rivian Automotive (
NASDAQ:RIVN), investors should really focus on the bigger picture. Unfortunately, said picture suggests that market participants may need to unplug the upstart EV manufacturer. The reality is that while fundamentals can be slow to reflect issues, they usually don’t lie. As such, I am bearish on RIVN stock.
Rivian's Q3 Earnings Were Good but Not Great
With questions rising about the underlying EV sector, Rivian arguably needed an outstanding earnings print for the third quarter (which was reported yesterday). To be sure, the company posted some encouraging stats. However, these stats might not be enough to instill sustained credibility for RIVN stock.
What captured most of the attention was Rivian’s sales haul. At $1.34 billion (up 150% year-over-year), it beat Wall Street’s consensus view of $1.31 billion. On the bottom line, the EV startup reported a net loss of $1.37 billion. This compares favorably to the net loss of $1.72 billion in the year-ago period.
Further, management upped its production guidance for the full year. It
now anticipates 54,000 units, an increase of 2,000 vehicles. As well, Rivian will end its exclusivity deal with Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN) for its electric-powered delivery van. This move should open avenues for broader customer reach.
Still, even with the generally positive Q3 results, viability remains a key concern. Notably, cash and cash equivalents declined to $7.94 billion from $9.26 billion in Q2. Given the capital-intensive nature of the automotive industry, investors will want to see a credible path to profitability.
With the cheapest Rivian model coming in at $73,000, that’s going to be a tough ask. Frankly, consumer economic data shows fewer people willing to fork over that kind of money.
The Bigger Picture Presents a Worrying Backdrop for Rivian
Setting aside the Q3 earnings results, investors now need to focus on what lies ahead. Unfortunately, big-picture economics point to slowing demand for EVs. And even if the interest in making the transition to electric mobility jumps sharply, consumers generally have less disposable money these days to acquire new vehicles. That’s a huge problem for RIVN stock.
First, as multiple news agencies reported, EV inventory at dealership lots is rising. Specifically, a
CNBC report indicated that in August, it “took about twice as long to sell an EV in the U.S. as it did the previous January.” Consequently, EV days' supply (the number of days it would take to sell all inventory) stood at around 111 days in early July and 97 days last month. In contrast, combustion-powered cars saw supplies range between 52 and 58 days.
Second, while consumer spending has overall remained surprisingly robust in the face of high inflation and borrowing costs, some cracks in this exuberant sentiment are beginning to materialize. Naturally, the rising EV inventory represents one significant sign. Moreover, the once-vaunted “revenge travel” phenomenon of consumers committed to enjoying social-related experiences has started to wane, evidenced by a decline in revenue passenger miles for U.S. air carriers between April and July this year.
With EVs sporting higher prices relative to their combustion-powered counterparts, they’re more likely to absorb the brunt of the damage as consumers look to save money.
Third, consumers don’t have the appetite for certain big-ticket items. As I stated in earlier articles for TipRanks, the
average age of vehicles on U.S. roadways continues to rise higher and hit fresh records. Last year, it was 12.2 years. This year, this metric lands at 12.5 years. If the bulk of consumers – that is, middle-income households – were buying EVs at scale, one would expect this statistic to decline.
Combined with more Americans growing concerned about EV-related inconveniences, that’s not a great backdrop for RIVN stock.
Options Traders Don’t Seem Confident
Heading into Rivian’s Q3 earnings disclosure, options traders began placing bullishly-oriented big block trades on RIVN stock. At face value, this dynamic suggests that institutional investors have become optimistic about Rivian’s chances. However, several of these trades were sold puts, essentially meaning that institutional players have set their strike prices at levels they’re comfortable buying at in case the put options get exercised.
For the sold puts placed last Friday, many of the contracts feature a strike price of $12.50. That’s a significant drop from RIVN's current price (just under $17). Additionally, several institutional players are straight-out buying puts, which are bearish bets.
Is RIVN Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, RIVN stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 14 Buys, six Holds, and one Sell rating. The
average RIVN stock price target is $26.60, implying 58.5% upside potential.
The Takeaway: RIVN Stock Faces Ugly Fundamentals
Irrespective of the Q3 earnings print, the main point regarding RIVN stock is that it faces ugly fundamentals. Basically, Rivian and other EV upstarts have the unenviable task of convincing consumers in a high-inflation-and-interest-rate environment to buy a more expensive product than that which they’re used to. This is a challenging task, evidenced by the high inventory of EVs relative to ICE vehicles. Thus, it’s difficult to see a positive route forward.
Disclosure
Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG), the cloud monitoring software firm, experienced an impressive 28% surge in its stock value, marking a significant milestone and its best day ever. This growth follows Datadog's release of its third-quarter earnings report, which exceeded expectations and
Amazon.com has begun cutting jobs in its Music division, the company said on Wednesday, confirming the latest of several rounds of layoffs over the past year that have affected more than 27,000 employees of the retail giant.