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Apple Stock (NASDAQ:AAPL) Could Impress as Vision Pro Launch Looms

2 years 8 months ago
Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) stock may continue to be a tug of war between the bulls and the bears over the near term. Though you could build a pretty strong bullish or bearish case for the $3 trillion (or so) tech titan, I'd argue that fortune favors the bulls as the Vision Pro launch looms. Undoubtedly, the Apple Vision Pro officially goes on the market on February 2, and the reviews across the web are sure to be hot topics as many critics look to give their take on Apple's first new product class in years. The Vision Pro is a product that holds quite a bit of potential, but I believe its potential is being dismissed by the bears who may be missing the trees for the woods. Undoubtedly, the Vision Pro represents a giant leap in the field of spatial computing (or mixed reality, if you prefer). And though it won't nudge earnings higher by all too much (it represents a drop in the bucket as far as 2024 is concerned), I do think those looking out to the next three to five years stand to be impressed by what the Vision Pro ultimately evolves to become. Given this, I can't help but remain bullish on AAPL stock ahead of the Vision Pro's launch day. Apple's Playing the Long Game with the Vision Pro You see, Apple plays the long-term game, and when it launches a new product, it's looking at building profits, not just in the short term but over many years. The Apple App Store wasn't populated with must-have apps overnight. It took years before the many must-have apps we know and love came to be. The same thing can be said for Apple's Vision Pro App Store. The developers need time, but they will begin to populate it with intriguing spatial computing apps that may draw in more crowds to pick up the latest iteration of Vision Pro. For now, I'd look for the Vision Pro launch to be similar to that of the first Apple Watch, which was released just shy of a decade ago. Initially, many people scoffed at the idea of a smartwatch, given its fairly limited features. Nowadays, you see Apple Watches on a broad range of different people, including those who aren't exactly fitness buffs. From the smartwatch's life-saving capabilities to its use as a status symbol — think the Apple Watch Ultra, which is an intriguing buy, even for those who don't partake in "extreme" sports, deep-sea diving, or hardcore hiking — in the office, it's clear that the Apple Watch needed a few years to warm up with consumers. The same goes with the Vision Pro. It's going to take time before it makes a dent in the overall product sales mix. However, it's a mistake to overlook the technology just because a bearish analyst doesn't view it as material over the near term. The Vision Pro Won't Boost Earnings Soon, but It Doesn't Need to. Of course, the bearish analysts are right. The Vision Pro won't magically propel earnings growth higher for the next quarter or even the quarter after that. If you're a long-term investor focused on the next 10 years, however, I'd argue that Vision Pro is a big deal and should not be ignored at the cost of products that are more meaningful to the results in the present. Further, Vision Pro hype alone may be able to nudge the stock higher from here if the early reviews are favorable and early demand stays hot. Thus far, pre-orders have been hot, with some pundits believing the company sold as many as 180,000 during the pre-order weekend. So, if you look to the past, you'll probably see that iPhone sales growth is not where it needs to be to justify the stock's current 31.68 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. A multiple like this calls for double-digit growth, perhaps even high double-digit growth. Will Apple be able to command that through iPhone, Mac, and services alone? Possibly, assuming the economy picks up traction again in 2024. But there's no question Apple could use a new product to do more of the heavy lifting over the coming years. As the Vision Pro gets smarter and richer with experiences (wait for that Vision Pro App Store to populate, folks), lighter, more comfortable, and more affordable, you can bet that more Apple users are going to want to make the big purchase. Is AAPL Stock a Buy, According to Analysts? On TipRanks, AAPL stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 32 analyst ratings, there are 23 Buys, eight Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average AAPL stock price target is $203.52, implying upside potential of 4.8%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $150.00 per share to a high of $250.00 per share. The Takeaway: Don't Discount the Vision Pro's Potential Whether the average person starts dawning spatial computers in public two years from now or more than five years from now, I believe AAPL stock could have a lot to gain into the back half of this year as we finally get our hands on a Vision Pro. It's a product that could give us a glimpse of the future — one that could be profoundly prosperous for Apple. Disclosure 
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Monster Stock (NASDAQ:MNST): Are Its Market-Beating Days Over?

2 years 8 months ago
Monster Beverage stock ( NASDAQ:MNST ) has produced market-beating returns for nearly three decades. The stock has climbed from ~$0.01 in 1996 to $57.18 today, suggesting a tremendous 27-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.8%. During this period, its market cap has exploded from $5.7 million to $59.5 billion. While the energy drinks giant remains a solid pick in the industry, rising competition could hamper its market-beating momentum. Consequently, my outlook on the stock is neutral. Assessing Monster Stock's Market-Beating Track Record Monster stock does not just boast a decades-long track record of market-beating returns, but it's, in fact, the best-performing stock in the whole market since the mid-90s. Even when compared to some of the best-performing stocks over the same period, Monster's returns dwarf them. Consider the phenomenal growth of tech giants Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), evolving from early innovators to the world's most valuable companies with returns of approximately 90,069% and 8,732%, respectively, since mid-May 1996. Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has also dazzled investors with an impressive 162,075% return during this period. Yet, the standout performer is Monster, boasting an extraordinary 337,704% return over nearly 27 years. This unparalleled success places Monster ahead of Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, cementing its legacy in the realm of exceptional investment achievements. One could argue that I have cherry-picked the time frame in question, but the truth is that Monster has produced market-beating returns even in recent times. The company has beaten all three of the above companies over the past 20 years as well, producing returns of 66,518%, while over the past decade, shares have risen by 379%, implying a CAGR of 17%, also beating the broader market by a wide margin. Monster's outstanding history of generating value for shareholders can be credited to several factors. Not only did the company seize an early opportunity by becoming a pioneer in the thriving energy drinks market, but its triumph is also rooted in its dedication to product innovation, sharp marketing strategies, and successful global expansion initiatives. The company has continuously introduced new and unique energy drink products, maintaining a fresh appeal for consumers. Monster's edgy branding and strategic partnerships, notably with Coca-Cola ( NYSE:KO ), have enhanced its distribution capabilities and global reach, all the while sustaining impressive profit margins. Speaking of margins, Monster's profitability stands at industry-leading levels. Its operating margins have mostly hovered between 30% and 38% over the past decade. Even last year, when warehousing costs, other logistical expenses, and increased payroll expenses resulted in higher operating expenses, its operating margin remained above 25%, while its net income margin came in at 18.9%. The reason Monster's net margin isn't that far off its operating margin is that there are no interest expenses to compress its profitability. The company has $0 of debt on its ultra-clean balance sheet. Instead, it boasts a net cash position of $2.96 billion. The fact that the company managed to scale from revenues of $35.6 million in 1996 to $6.31 billion last year is a testament to management's competence and has certainly contributed significantly to the stock's extraordinary total return profile. Competition Could Hamper Future Returns, Nonetheless Monster's robust growth and juicy profit generation are likely to persist in the coming years. However, rising competition could hamper the stock's potential for market-beating returns. The company's sales are expected to have grown by 13.5% for Fiscal 2023. Growth is expected to decelerate to about 11.7% for Fiscal 2024, while by Fiscal Year 2027, the company's growth is expected to decelerate to the single digits. For context, Monster commands just over 33% of the energy drinks market, coming only second to Red Bull, which holds a 44% share. However, many smaller competitors fight both for the remaining market share and that of the two giants. Celsius Holdings is one company that threatens Monster's growth prospects ( NASDAQ:CELH ). The company's “functional beverage” drinks have been attracting consumers in a big way in recent years. With a focus on caffeine and other stimulants, the company is competing directly with Monster and RedBull, among other categories (e.g., they offer non-caffeine drinks, competing with the soda market). Over the past two years, the number of stores selling Celsius' beverages grew by approximately 15,000 to 150,000, with sales in 2020, 2021, and 2022 growing by 74%, 140%, and 108%, respectively. For Fiscal 2023, sales are expected to have grown by 99% to $1.30 billion, with the company having a massive runaway for growth ahead, as it has yet to establish an international presence. Thus, while Monster is not going anywhere anytime soon, with sales likely to keep growing for some time, it appears that the company is maturing in the face of upcoming competition. Combined with the fact that Monster shares are trading at a rather hefty 36.6x 2023's expected earnings, it's evident that the company's market-beating total return track record may not be sustainable in the years to come. The Takeaway Overall, Monster Beverage has undeniably delivered jaw-dropping market-beating returns since the 90s, outshining even the most celebrated tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. However, looming competition, notably from Celsius, poses a potential threat to future growth. While Monster is likely going to remain a strong player in the energy drinks market, its hefty valuation and rising competition suggest that a more cautious outlook is prudent. Disclosure
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IVV, SFLO: Big ETF Inflows

2 years 8 months ago
Comparing units outstanding versus one week ago at the coverage universe of ETFs at ETF Channel, the biggest inflow was seen in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, which added 11,200,000 units, or a 1.3% increase week over week. Among the largest underlying components of IVV, in
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