In 2022, the Nasdaq Composite index plunged 33% as macroeconomic headwinds curbed consumer discretionary spending and businesses trimmed their budgets. Countless companies across different industries reported declines throughout the year.
Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors in history. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has outperformed the S&P 500 index each year on average for more than 50 years by investing in stable so-called value stocks.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been volatile lately. After hovering near the $30,000 mark for several weeks, a handful of mildly bearish news items drove the largest crypto down to $26,000. Then, a helpful legal verdict briefly pushed Bitcoin past $28,000 again.
Investors tend to get excited when a company splits its stock, and not just because the end result is a cheaper share price. Instead, a stock split is an implicit indicator of a good business. Only substantial share price appreciation makes a stock split necessary, and companies
September S&P 500 futures (ESU23) are trending up +0.06% this morning as market participants looked ahead to a reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Launched on 09/15/2005, the Invesco Dividend Achievers ETF (PFM) is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to provide a broad exposure to the Large Cap Value segment of the US equity market.
If you're interested in broad exposure to the Large Cap Blend segment of the US equity market, look no further than the Goldman Sachs MarketBeta U.S. 1000 Equity ETF (GUSA), a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 04/
Unpredictability and volatility have been the name of the game on Wall Street since this decade began. Not surprisingly, investors have turned their attention to industry-leading businesses that have a history of outperforming no matter what Wall Street throws their way. While th
According to a
Reuters report, Goldman Sachs' (
NYSE:GS
) data shows that
hedge funds have significantly increased their exposure to the magnificent seven stocks, including Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
), Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
)(
NASDAQ:GOOG
), Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
), Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
), Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
), Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
), and Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
). Although
hedge fund signals are positive for these
tech giants, it is best for investors to analyze stocks on multiple parameters. For instance, savvy investors can leverage
TipRanks’ Experts Center tools to make an informed investment decision.
With this backdrop, let’s check what the future holds for these stocks.
What are the Magnificent Seven Stocks Returning So
Far?
After a dismal show in 2022, these seven stocks roared back, making their investors rich. (See the graph below.) The higher probability of less aggressive interest rate hikes in the coming months, continued moderation in the inflation rate, and the solid uptake of Generative
AI (Artificial Intelligence) are why hedge funds and investors are buoyant on these magnificent seven stocks.
Leading the AI race is Nvidia, whose stock is galloping ahead with a stellar 237.2% gain on a year-to-date basis. Following Nvidia is the social media king, Meta Platforms, whose shares are up about 145%. During the same period, Tesla stock more than doubled, just when Amazon and Alphabet stocks are up about 61% and 54%, respectively.
Shares of the tech giant Apple have gained nearly 45%, while Microsoft, which is investing heavily in AI, witnessed a 38% growth in its stock.
Even if these stocks have appreciated significantly, the recovery in cloud computing, reacceleration in advertising spending, and AI-led opportunities continue to support the bull case. However, the economy still exhibits weakness, implying investors should take caution before going long on all seven magnificent stocks.
The Road Ahead
TipRanks’
Stock Comparison tool shows that NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN have received a Strong Buy consensus rating. Moreover, these stocks have an Outperform Smart Score on TipRanks.
Nvidia is poised to benefit from solid AI-led demand that will enable it to generate significant
revenue and cash flows. Further, the company will likely enhance its shareholders’ returns through massive share buybacks. As for Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, the reacceleration in the cloud segment,
investments in AI and its integration into their products, and improvement in ad spending provide a solid foundation for future growth.
On the other hand, the decline in sales of the iPhone, iPad, and Mac in Q3 keeps analysts cautiously optimistic on Apple stock. Nevertheless, it has
a “Perfect 10” Smart Score. Meanwhile, the
near-term pressure on margins keeps analysts cautious about Tesla stock.
The Takeaway
As hedge funds and large institutions are known for generating market-beating returns, investors should closely watch their trades to form investing ideas.
However, when investing for the long term, one must also consider analyzing a stock on multiple parameters, including analysts’ ratings, fundamentals, and insider transactions, among others.
To make things easier for retail investors, TipRanks offers a valuable tool like the Smart Score, which scores stocks based on eight key parameters, such as Wall Street analysts’ ratings, corporate insider transactions, fundamentals, and technical analysis, among other metrics.
Based on Smart Score, Tesla and Meta are the two stocks with a Neutral Smart Score. Meanwhile, the rest carry an Outperform Smart Score, implying these stocks are more likely to beat the broader markets with their returns in the coming days.
Disclosure
Shares of fintech giant PayPal (
NASDAQ:PYPL
) have declined more than 14% over the past month and are
down about 11% year-to-date. The company’s second-quarter results, announced earlier this month, came slightly ahead of estimates but failed to address investors’ concerns about margins and the impact of growing competition in the payments space. Nevertheless, several analysts remain bullish on the stock, especially after the announcement of a new CEO, and expect a solid upside potential.
Wall Street Expects PYPL Stock to Bounce Back
PayPal’s
second-quarter revenue grew 7% year-over-year to $7.3 billion, while
adjusted EPS increased nearly 25% to $1.16. The company’s Q2 2023 results and third-quarter outlook came ahead of expectations.
While the company’s Q2 2023 adjusted operating margin increased 228 basis points year-over-year to 21.4%, it fell short of analysts’ estimate of 22% and the first-quarter operation margin of 22.7%. PayPal’s margins have been under pressure due to the rapid growth of lower-margin businesses like Braintree (part of the company’s unbranded business) compared to the company’s branded offering.
Also, the company is facing increasing competition from several tech giants that are seeking growth in the fintech space, including Apple’s (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) Apple Pay mobile payment service. It is worth noting that PayPal ended the second quarter with 431 million active accounts, which marked a decline compared to 433 million as of Q1-end.
While some analysts lowered their price target following the Q2 print,
Truist Financial analyst Andrew Jeffrey raised the price target for PYPL to $85 from $80 and reiterated a Buy rating on August 3. Jeffrey believes that the worst of the branded share loss is behind the company, given management’s commentary about Q2 2023 branded volume rising 6.5% and accelerating to 8% in July, with additional momentum expected in the second half of the year.
Like Jeffrey,
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng is also bullish on PYPL and reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $89 on August 18. Reacting to the news of the appointment of
Alex Chriss, a senior executive at Intuit (
NASDAQ:INTU
), as
the new CEO of PayPal succeeding
Daniel Schulman, the analyst said that it removes a “key overhang” on PYPL stock. He expects the company to benefit from Chriss’ experience in product development, small and medium business (SMB) solutions, and payments.
Chriss most recently served as the executive vice president and general manager of Intuit’s Small Business and Self-Employed Group, which accounts for over 50% of Intuit's revenue.
The price targets of Jeffrey and Ng indicate upside potential of 34% and 40.3%, respectively, in
PYPL stock from current levels.
Is PYPL a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
With 20 Buys and 10 Holds, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on PayPal. The average price target of $87.38 implies about 38% upside potential.
Conclusion
PayPal stock is down year-to-date due to concerns about the company’s margins and growing rivalry. That said, several analysts remain optimistic about the road ahead, especially after the appointment of the company’s new CEO. During the Q2 2023 earnings call, management assured investors that the company is in the process of launching high-margin, value-added services, expanding internationally, and making significant progress with in-person payments.
Disclosure
Our Theme of Apple Component Supplier Stocks, which includes a diverse set of companies that supply components for Apple’s devices, has gained about 12% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 which remains up by 15% and Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL), which has gain
Between the
Metaverse,
cryptocurrency, and
AI, plenty of new investment themes have emerged in recent years, at the same time as more individual and retail investors started investing during the pandemic. Predictably, a wave of new ETFs launched in an attempt to capitalize on these new trends.
However, according to a new
Wall Street Journal article
, many of these thematic and niche-focused ETFs are closing up shop. In fact, so far in 2023, 929 ETFs have closed worldwide, up from just 373 this time last year, according to research from ETFGI. In the United States, 178 exchange-traded products have shut down, already exceeding last year’s total of 142.
According to the Wall Street Journal, this is the highest number of closures since 2020, when collapsing oil prices led to the demise of many energy-themed funds. Here’s why.
It’s Hard to Compete with the 800-Pound Gorillas in the Room
Many of these ETFs are learning that it’s hard to attract capital in a crowded market where there is no shortage of competition and where the biggest ETFs from the largest asset managers dominate. These more established ETFs have the size and scale to offer investors low expense ratios and have long track records of performance that investors can look to, making it hard for newcomers to dislodge them.
Making matters more difficult for these new entrants is the fact that while the stock market has done well this year -- the S&P 500 (
SPX
) is up 18.1% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq (
NDX
) is up 35.0% -- a large portion of these gains come from just a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, known as the "Magnificent Seven." The Wall Street Journal reports that through May, these powerhouse stocks were responsible for virtually all of the market’s year-to-date gains.
Investors looking for exposure to these seven tech behemoths -- Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
), Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
), Amazon (
NASDAQ:AMZN
), Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
), Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
), Alphabet (
NASDAQ:GOOG
) (
NASDAQ:GOOGL
), and Tesla (
NASDAQ:TSLA
) -- don’t really need to look beyond large, popular technology ETFs like
Invesco QQQ Trust (
NASDAQ:QQQ)
and
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (
NYSEARCA:XLK)
to gain exposure to these stocks.
QQQ and XLK are good examples of the large ETFs that dominate the market. QQQ boasts nearly $200 billion in assets under management (AUM), a staggering figure, while XLK is smaller than QQQ but is still approaching $50 billion in AUM. With their massive size and scale, these two leading tech ETFs are able to offer investor-friendly expense ratios of 0.20% and 0.10%, respectively.
Staying within technology, smaller but still-popular ETFs like the
ARK Innovation Fund (
NYSEARCA:ARKK)
have much higher expense ratios of 0.75%, and this disparity in fees and expenses makes a significant difference to investors when compounded over time.
The extent to which these mega-cap stocks (and massive ETFs) have dominated the market as of late leaves would-be competitors gasping for oxygen and fighting for scraps. Furthermore, because the Magnificent Seven have racked up such significant gains this year, they are now the largest seven stocks in the S&P 500.
This means that an investor can simply invest in broad market, low-cost S&P 500 ETFs like the
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (
NYSEARCA:VOO)
or the
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (
NYSEARCA:SPY)
to gain exposure to all of these stocks.
This is a conundrum for smaller and newer ETFs. On the one hand, investing in these stocks isn’t going to be enough to stand out in the crowd, especially when incumbents like VOO, SPY, XLK, and QQQ have lower expenses and lower track records. Trying to compete with these ETFs is like fighting the proverbial 800-pound gorillas in the room.
On the other hand, because these stocks are propelling much of the market’s overall gains in 2023, many individual investors simply don’t seem particularly interested in chasing other ideas and themes like the Metaverse or some of the politically-themed ETFs that have launched in recent years.
There is an Alternative
Another factor that is making it tough sledding for smaller, narrowly-focused ETFs is that rising interest rates have given investors more alternatives to consider when looking for returns. For years, we all heard the mantra “there is no alternative,” which became so commonplace it even earned its own acronym, “TINA.”
But now, for the first time in years, individual investors do have viable alternatives to stocks. Treasury bond yields have risen to decade-highs, and investors can also earn decent risk-free returns by parking money in Certificates of Deposit and money-market accounts. The new viability of fixed-income investing means that money is flowing into fixed-income ETFs as opposed to the latest ETF with a cute ticker attempting to capitalize on the latest trend.
It’s Not All Bad News for New ETFs
All of that said, there are some outliers out there in newer ETFs that are bucking the trend and seem to be establishing real staying power. For example, the
JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (
NYSEARCA:JEPI)
only launched in 2020 but has quickly garnered nearly $30 billion in AUM, meaning that it has already grown into the market’s largest actively-managed ETF in just a few short years of existence.
JEPI has stood out from the crowd and gained traction with investors by offering a double-digit
dividend yield of 10.0% and a monthly payout schedule, with a strategy of selling covered calls to boost its payout. Similarly, JEPI’s cousin, the
JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (
NASDAQ:JEPQ)
launched last May and has already accumulated $5.0 billion in assets under management. Like JEPI, JEPQ pays a double-digit
dividend yield of 11.5% and makes monthly payouts but invests in the Nasdaq instead of the S&P 500.
Below,
you can view a comparison of the two ETFs using TipRanks' ETF comparison tool.
The Takeaway
In conclusion, investors today have more choices than ever when it comes to investing in ETFs, with a bevy of new options launching for each hot theme that emerges. However, many of these ETFs never end up gaining traction with investors and end up shutting down. Essentially, when it comes to ETFs, the competitive landscape is a Darwinian "survival of the fittest," and not everyone is going to attract enough capital to survive.
The ETF market may benefit from a "thinning of the herd" in which some of the weaker ETFs that have not found a product-market fit go by the wayside. The Wall Street Journal previously found that "because many newly launched ETFs are risky attempts to capitalize on the latest trend, they end up investing in overvalued stocks. One consequence is that such funds, on average, can be expected to lag behind the broad market’s returns over at least five years after launch—if they even live that long."
Thus, ETFs looking to capitalize on the latest trend may be late to the party and are buying in after large gains have already been made. Meanwhile, some ETFs, such as politically-themed ones or ones that let you
invest alongside or fade the picks of prominent investing personalities, are better characterized as gimmicks than viable long-term investing strategies.
These ETFs face a challenging landscape right from the beginning, as offering investors exposure to the typical large-cap growth and tech stocks won’t give them much differentiation against the market’s top ETFs, but conversely, offering different exposure may not interest investors either.
However, the massive success of a few new ETFs like JEPI and JEPQ shows that it is still possible to gain success if an ETF finds a differentiated strategy that appeals to investors.
Disclosure
What happened
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