Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment featuring high interest rates and inflationary pressures, investors might expect Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) latest iPhone launch to fall flat. But iPhones are proving to be less of a discretionary expense than Wall Street anticipa
World stocks fell for a fifth straight session, the dollar hit its strongest since March and sterling and the Swiss franc tumbled on Thursday, as the latest crop of central bank interest rate moves continued to produce surprises.
U.S. stock index futures fell on Thursday pressured by a decline in growth stocks as Treasury yields jumped after the Federal Reserve signaled that another rate hike was in the offing this year.
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U.S. stock index futures declined on Thursday as growth stocks took a hit from a jump in Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while hinting at another hike this year.
Shares of red-hot U.K. semiconductor design firm Arm Holdings (
NASDAQ:ARM
) had an impressive IPO, surging more than 25% on opening day. Since peaking at around $68 and change, however, the IPO boom seems to have gone bust in the past few days. The stock is now under $53. Undoubtedly, it's not hard to imagine that many Arm investors are looking to get a front-row seat to massive gains, the likes of which haven't been seen since Nvidia (
NASDAQ:NVDA
).
Given the frenzy surrounding AI-enabling semiconductor companies, Arm stock's stellar first day on the public markets should come as no surprise. As the market terrain gets rockier going into year's end, patient investors may just be able to get a better price of admission into the latest hot chip stock.
Perhaps a price below the IPO level of $51 could be in the cards as valuations across the broader tech scene look to contract further. It's been a rough September for stocks, and more of the same could be in the cards for October. For now, I'm inclined to maintain a bearish stance and enjoy the Arm show from the sidelines, as I don't think the stock can provide a shot in the arm at today's incredibly frothy multiples.
ARM Stock is Still Expensive
Despite its recent sell-off, ARM stock is still far from cheap at 20.4 times price-to-sales (P/S) and nearly 140 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), both of which are well above the semiconductor industry averages. Further, ARM stock still seems way too expensive at its IPO price, which, at this rate, may be tested in just a few days! A certain group of momentum chasers may be upbeat on ARM stock, but Wall Street certainly is not -- not at today's price of admission.
Bernstein analyst Sara Russo slapped ARM stock with its first "Sell" rating alongside a price target of $46 per share, well below the IPO price. Although Arm has some skin in the AI game, Russo thinks it's "too soon" to say that Arm is "an AI winner."
I think Russo will be proven correct. We're likely still in the very early stages (perhaps the infancy) of the AI boom, and there are sure to be competitors duking it out to grab the largest slice of the AI pie.
Russo also noted that the open-source RISC-V chip architecture may be a potential threat to Arm. Though I'm unsure if it's RISC-V or some other architecture that challenges Arm's dominance, the competitive risks are worth weighing before committing an investment to Arm.
For now, though, if Arm is good enough for Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) -- it designs Apple's custom chips -- it seems to be good enough for a lot of early ARM shareholders.
Don't Expect an Nvidia-Like Pop
Make no mistake, Arm is a frontrunner with a pretty wide moat, just like Nvidia. And that makes its shares worth some premium to the peer group — though probably not to the magnitude of more than 20 times P/S. Still, Arm is the company that's enabled firms, like iPhone maker Apple, to design their own custom chips. Just two weeks ago, Arm
extended its partnership with Apple beyond 2040.
Clearly, there's ample value to be had in Arm's architecture as hardware makers race to maximize per-watt performance to gain an edge over rivals. Add AI to the equation, and it seems like Arm cannot lose as the AI race moves forward. That said, investors ought to temper their expectations.
At this juncture, it seems highly unlikely that AI can give Arm a similar shot in the arm -- not after it started out of the gate at an already-elevated $51 per share. Further, Arm's AI exposure is limited versus the likes of a GPU and APU maker such as Nvidia, at least for now. Currently, Arm stands as a more viable contender in the mobile sector rather than AI, given that today's advanced models, such as
ChatGPT, primarily operate within cloud infrastructures rather than being housed on individual smartphones.
Is ARM Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
On TipRanks, ARM stock comes in as a Hold. Out of four analyst ratings, there is one Buy, two Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The
average ARM stock price target is $51.67, implying downside potential of 2.3%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $46.00 per share to a high of $59.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on ARM Stock
Although Arm is a semiconductor stock with some skin in the AI game, that's where most of the similarities with Nvidia end. At the end of the day, ARM stock's lofty price tag and baked-in AI hype could work against it as markets look to take a breather from here.
Disclosure
U.S. stocks slumped on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve held key interest rates unchanged as widely expected, and revised economic projections higher with warnings that the battle against inflation was far from over.
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The launch of
Apple’s (
AAPL)
iPhone 15 hasn’t generated too much excitement, with other concerns – reports of China banning government workers from using iPhones, competition from Huawei – appearing to weigh on investors’ minds. However, tracking the iPhone 15 fulfillment times on the tech giant’s website offers reason to be upbeat, says Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng.
It shows that the lead times for all models are “extending further,” with the most significant uptick in lead time displayed by the iPhone 15 base model. “We view the extending lead times for the iPhone 15 base models as incrementally positive (relative to the extended lead times observed in the Pro Max last week on 9/15) given that supply constraints should be less of an issue for the base model,” Ng commented.
Compared to last Friday (9/15) and the past weekend, both the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus are witnessing significant increases in lead times. Delivery lead times for the iPhone 15 have grown to more than 2 weeks (vs. launch day fulfillment at the end of day on Friday), and iPhone 15 Plus’ lead times have increased too, although to a lesser extent.
Even better, given all the China worries, the region has seen the most notable rise in lead times (compared to last Friday when pre-orders kicked off), having increased to about 3 weeks from first being available on launch day. It’s been a similar story for the iPhone 15 Plus. While lead times were one week following launch day if ordered this past Friday, these have now extended to around 3 weeks.
The early indications of demand are a pleasing development, says Ng, even if not too much should be made of it just yet. “Although we recognize that there are caveats to extrapolating delivery lead times to consumer demand,” Ng summed up, “we’re encouraged by what appears to be strong demand for all iPhone 15 models, particularly against the backdrop of heightened competition from Huawei.”
All told, Ng reiterated a Buy rating on the shares to go alongside a $216 price target. There’s potential upside of 21% from current levels. (To watch
Ng’s track record,
click here
)
Elsewhere on the Street, the stock garners an additional 21 Buys and 8 Holds, all coalescing to a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The analysts see shares climbing 16% higher in the months ahead, considering the average target stands at $207.89.
(
See Apple stock forecast on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
Unions at the Apple France stores have called for a strike on Friday and Saturday ahead of the iPhone 15 launch, demanding better pay and working conditions.