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Cassava Sciences (SAVA): Let’s Shed Some Light on That Crash
Investing in micro-cap biotechs is a risky business.
Although 2020 has seen a host of small biotech companies’ valuations soar on the back of promising trial data for a COVID-19 vaccine or treatment, it’s easy to forget just how devastating negative results can be. Bring results of a failed clinical trial to the public‘s attention, and the stock gets dropped faster than you can say “primary endpoint.”
Case in point: Cassava Sciences (SAVA). The Austin, Texas-based company shed 74% of its value in Friday’s session following the release of disappointing results from a Phase 2 study evaluating Cassava's lead investigational drug, PTI-125, in Alzheimer's disease (AD).
The candidate failed to meet the primary endpoint, which was to produce a meaningful improvement in a number of AD biomarkers, when compared to the placebo.
Targeting an altered form of filamin A, a scaffolding protein present in the body, PTI-125 is a small molecule designed to reduce the protein’s effects. Present in the brains of AD patients, the extremely toxic form of the protein interferes with the normal function of neurons, thereby, causing neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration.
The company has noted that the high variability in biomarkers may have masked the drug’s effect, with it planning to further analyze the data.
Although Maxim's Jason McCarthy notes there were positives to take away from the data, they are not enough to dissuade the analyst from changing his model for Cassava.
McCarthy said, “The data failed to meet the primary endpoint of significant improvement in AD biomarkers from baseline to Day 28 in treatment groups compared to placebo. A significant reduction in CSF levels, however, was noted in neuroinflammation biomarker IL1-beta, a secondary endpoint (p<0.035). Nonetheless, a miss is a miss and the path forward for PTI-125 is unclear.”
Accordingly, the analyst downgraded SAVA to Hold and removed the previous $12 price target “while the company further evaluates the data and path forward.” (To watch McCarthy’s track record, click here)
Only one other analyst has reviewed Cassava over the past three months, assigning the stock a Hold rating. Therefore, the micro-cap biotech has a Hold consensus rating.
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
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eCommerce Isn’t Amazon’s Only Segment Benefiting from COVID-19, Says 5-Star Analyst
For Amazon (AMZN), stay-at-home orders have been good for business. Demand for product has surged, with the internet colossus expanding operations during lockdown and responding to consumers’ needs, many of which switched to online retail for the first time during the global crisis.
Yet, COVID-19 has also resulted in an acceleration of other trends which were already in motion. In a post-COVID world, these trends will become commonplace much faster than previously anticipated. Take cloud-based services, for example. The success of remote working during lockdown suggests the movement will only gain steam even as restrictions are eased, highlighting the need for robust cloud infrastructures. Who stands to benefit? Amazon, naturally.
Following a keynote address by Amazon CTO Werner Vogel during an online AWS summit, 5-star Monness analyst Brian White comemnted, “With a positive, secular cloud trend and now the COVID-19 crisis, Werner believes that ‘most organizations will be transforming into a completely cloud-based environment’ in 2020 and beyond… Moreover, video streaming has clearly taken on a life of its own during this crisis with AWS supporting the leading streaming and video conferencing platforms.”
Looking specifically at video streaming, it has been a hallmark of the crisis. Data from Conviva indicates that during March 17-23, daytime global streaming viewing grew by 39%, compared to March 3-9. Additionally, according to estimates from Nielsen, during the week of March 30, there were 161.4 billion minutes of U.S. video streaming as opposed to 69.8 billion minutes during the same week in 2019.
But will the trend continue once normality - or something resembling the previous normal - resumes?
Most likely. With AWS having, what White calls “the widest array of databases in the cloud” and solutions which simplify the integration of machine learning into SaaS services, many wouldn’t bet against Amazon.
Neither would White. The 5-star analyst has a Buy rating on AMZN shares that accompanies a $2,800 price target. The implication for investors? Upside potential of 14%. (To watch White’s track record, click here)
The rest of the Street likes what it’s seeing, too. Amazon’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 38 Buys, 2 Holds and 1 Sell. With an average price target of $2,673.17, the analysts expect further gains of 9% in the year ahead. (See Amazon stock analysis on TipRanks)