It has been a breakout year for vaccine specialist Vaxart (VXRT). Entering 2020, the company had a market cap just below a puny $17 million. Since then, shares have exploded by an incredible 4748% as investors have piled in with the hope Vaxart can be the surprise provider of the coveted COVID-19 vaccine.
However, Vaxart stock still has plenty left in the tank, according to B Riley FBR analyst Mayank Mamtani.
The 5-star analyst believes that, based on the company’s proprietary VAAST (vector-adjuvant-antigen standardized technology) vaccine platform, Vaxart’s “one-of-its-kind oral solution,” could set it apart from the competition.
Mamtani added, “We believe clinical proof of concept from norovirus and influenza programs validates VAAST’s targeted immune system activation approach with enteric-coated tablets designed to release a vaccine specifically in the small intestine. This activation of gut immunity provides protection at the inner linings of the GI and respiratory tracts and is a key differentiator versus other platform approaches, in our view.”
Apart from the convenience of an oral solution instead of the more commonly used injection, Vaxart’s approach has logistical advantages, and its worldwide distribution would cause “only a minimal incremental burden to the global vaccine supply chain.” Moreover, the unique approach could increase global vaccination rates because it is one well suited to developing counties whose less advanced healthcare systems are already under duress due to the pandemic.
It is worth remembering, however, that the company is still in very early stages. Preclinical trials have been promising with several vaccine candidates generating immune responses in 100% of tested animals following a single dose. With the most suitable vaccine candidate now selected, Vaxart plans on initiating a phase 1 trial in 2H20, possibly starting in the summer. Despite having to play catch up with other more advanced programs, Mamtani doesn’t rule out additional funding to accelerate the progress of Vaxart’s COVID-19 vaccine program.
“Although VXRT is lagging a bit on timelines in a crowded influenza and COVID-19 landscape, we believe convenience differentiation and generation of de-risking data sets will likely translate into adequate non-dilutive funding support, including Operation Warp Speed for COVID-19 and J&J for a universal influenza program, in 2H20,” Mamtani said.
To this end, Mamtani rates Vaxart a Buy along with a $22 price target. The implication for investors? Further upside of "just" 30%. (To watch Mamtani’s track record, click here)
Over the past 3 months, two other analysts have thrown the hat in with a review of Vaxart; Both reaffirm Mamtani’s positive assessment with additional Buy ratings. (See Vaxart stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Shares of the vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) are up by double digits in after-hours session Tuesday, thanks to a positive clinical update for its experimental coronavirus vaccine mRNA-1273.
"Phase 1 data demonstrate that vaccination with mRNA-1273 elicits a robust immune response across all dose levels and clearly support the choice of 100 µg in a prime and boost regimen as the optimal dose for the Phase 3 study,” said Tal Zaks, Chief Medical Officer of Moderna.
Following Moderna’s massive gains so far this year, 333% to be exact, is now the right time to recommend investors snap up shares? Jefferies analyst Michael Yee has an almost Schwarzenegger-ish answer to such a question: “We take a stand: If it works, stock will be going up.”
To this end, Yee initiated coverage on MRNA with a Buy rating. However, his $90 price target implies a modest 5% upside from current levels. (To watch Yee’s track record, click here)
Unsurprisingly, the bulk of Yee’s bullish assessment is reserved for the company's COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
Expanding on this blunt assessment, Yee said, “We believe the Street will be surprised to the upside if the COVID-19 vaccine works, gets approved by early 2021, and there are multi-billion dollars of purchase orders from USA and around the world. The Street is divided as to what will happen or if the vaccine will even work and is hugely divided on valuation. We believe the vaccine will get approved and could do $5B+ in orders over the next few years and the stock will head higher.”
Yee’s confidence is partly based on talks with KOLs (key opinion leaders) who have prompted a belief there is “a good probability the vaccine will work,” and should at minimum be granted Emergency approval by early next year.
Moderna has emerged as one of the frontrunners in the race to bring a viable vaccine to market, but there’s a while to go yet before breaking out the champagne. mRNA-1273 is currently in a phase 2 trial, with data expected in the fall, while a phase 3 study is expected to launch this month. It goes without saying, positive results from the trials could act as additional catalysts for further share appreciation.
The Jefferies analyst is not alone in his positive assessment. Based on 14 Buy ratings and 2 Holds, Moderna has a Strong Buy consensus rating. With an average price target of $86.46, the analysts expect a 15% premium to be added to the share price over the next 12 months. (See Moderna stock analysis on TipRanks)
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