CoinDesk Crypto

They’re definitely not equity, but could “exchange tokens” be bellwethers for one of crypto’s best use cases? (Spoiler: Probably not)

Among thousands of venture-backed startups, tokens, coins, blockchains and open-source technology projects, exchange operators now stand out among the top revenue getters in the crypto asset category. Coinbase, not the largest by trading volume even among exchanges whose trade data is trusted, reported $173 million in 2018 non-U.S. revenue, leading Reuters to estimate Coinbase’s global revenue as north of $500 million. 

If crypto has proven itself in one use case, it is as a volatile asset for investors hungry to speculate. Our estimate of exchange operators’ fee-based revenue shows this to be true. 

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

As such, crypto tokens issued by the exchanges themselves could be among the most useful digital assets in circulation. “Exchange tokens,” as they are called, offer holders discounts on trading fees and other benefits. This doesn’t make them anything like equity claims on exchange revenue, which several analysts have pointed out, no matter what buyback mechanisms are employed. It does make them much like the “utility tokens” issued in the initial coin offering boom of 2017 and 2018 – or like air miles – and some investors in these tokens embrace that narrative. 

Unlike air miles, exchange tokens trade freely on a variety of venues. As such it’s surprising that, despite the success of their issuers, the tokens themselves have not been more successful as investments. The table below shows the one-, three-, six-, nine- and 12-month returns of Binance’s BNB, Huobi’s HT, Bitfinex’s LEO and OKEx’s OKB, the four exchange tokens that make up the exchange token index provided by FTX, a derivatives exchange operator, as of Jan. 28 (data via Nomics).

Table of exchange token returnsSource: Nomics

The benefits to traders, however, can be significant. According to Binance’s fee schedule, the top tier of BNB token holders must today hold about $176,000 worth of the token and trade about $1.2 billion per month on the exchange (with BNB and BTC at current prices of about $16 and $8,000 respectively). For users trading in these volumes,top-tier BNB holdings provide fee discounts that would save them about $720,000 each month, off the standard trading fees – more, if these traders pay the fees themselves in the Binance token. They also provide access to “initial exchange offerings” (IEOs), a new asset issuance operated by the exchange. 

As such, BNB and other exchange tokens might be expected to serve as indicators as to the relative success of the issuing exchanges. After all, if an open market for air miles existed, you might expect one airline’s miles to trade at a premium to another’s, depending on flyers’ perceptions of their service. 

Related: Poloniex Crypto Exchange Forced to Roll Back Trades After Update Error

At one time, that was true of exchange tokens, but over the course of the past year it’s become less and less so. For most of these exchange tokens, the correlation between price and the issuing exchanges’ reported volume is weakening over time. (Unlike the exchanges in the revenue chart, not all these exchange token issuers’ reported volume is rated trustworthy.) 

Line graph showing exchange token price and exchange volume correlationSource: Nomics

Even as a more general metric, providing an indicator of the broad demand for crypto assets as a speculative investment, exchange tokens are a weak signal. Or, at least, they are no better than the price of bitcoin. At the same time as their prices have drifted from the reported volume of their parent exchanges, exchange tokens’ daily returns have hewed more closely to those of bitcoin itself.

Line graph showing exchange token and bitcoin returns’ correlation vs timeSource: Nomics

It’s been 11 years since bitcoin was operational and you can make a case that speculation is the best-proven user narrative for the entire asset category. And it is a real use: not everyone in the world has access to volatile assets (and for some, perhaps no asset is volatile enough). For now, exchange tokens appear to be just another flavor of that volatility. Their price movements don’t yet support thinking of exchange tokens as a meaningful innovation in use or ownership. 

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• Bitcoin’s price has briefly dropped to $7,000 – its lowest level since May.
• Next losses may extend to falling channel support at $6,800, with a weekly chart indicator reporting the strongest bearish bias since March. 
• Intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions. As a result, consolidation or a minor bounce to $7,500 could be seen before a deeper drop. 
• A break above $8,231 is needed to invalidate lower highs setup and confirm a short-term bullish reversal. The outlook as per the weekly chart would turn bullish once the RSI has moved above 53.00.

Bitcoin’s price dropped to a six-month low on Friday, with a widely tracked technical indicator reporting the strongest bearish bias in eight months. 

The number one cryptocurrency by market value fell to $7,009 on Bitstamp at 10:05 UTC – the lowest level since May 17 – erasing the entire rally from $7,293 to $10,350 in October, plus some. 

At press time, BTC has bounced back slightly and is trading at $7,220, down 8 percent on a 24-hour basis.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The downtrend looks sustainable, as the weekly relative strength index (RSI) – an indicator used to confirm market trends and overbought and oversold conditions – has declined to 43.00, the lowest reading since mid-March. A reading below 50 indicates bearish conditions. So, it seems safe to say the market sentiment is extremely bearish. 

Weekly chart

The RSI is holding well below 50 and pointing south (above left), confirming the bearish trend in the market. The MACD histogram is also printing deeper bars below the zero line, indicating a strengthening of bearish momentum.   

The cryptocurrency is trapped in a falling channel (above right), represented by the trendlines connecting June and August highs and July and September lows. 

As a result, a further drop to the channel support at $6,800 cannot be ruled out. That said, a minor bounce to $7,700–$7,800 may be seen first, according to the intraday charts. 

Hourly and 4-hour chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

The RSI on the hourly chart is producing higher lows as opposed to lower lows on the price chart – bullish divergence suggesting sellers may be running out of steam. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is hovering well below 30, indicating oversold conditions. 

8-hour chart

The series of lower highs and lower lows seen above indicates the bears are in control. The immediate outlook would turn bullish only if and when prices invalidate the lower highs setup with a move above $8,231. 

Overall, the outlook as per the weekly chart will remain bearish as long as the RSI is held below 53.00 and the price is trapped in a falling channel.

Note that as per textbook rules, RSI’s move above 50 implies a bullish reversal. In this case, however, 53.00 is the demarcation line between the bulls and the bears. 

This is due to the fact that the indicator consistently bounced up from 53.00 levels throughout the 2016-17 bull market. That level was breached in early January 2018 following which BTC fell to $6,000 on Feb. 6.

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Understanding short-term and long-term moving averages (MAs) is important for trading strategies, whether for cryptocurrency or traditional assets.

Two rare but powerful signals that traders look for occur when the short-term and long-term MAs cross.

On the upside, that’s the golden cross, and, on the downside, it’s called the death cross.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Golden and death crosses have predicted many of the worst economic downturns of the previous century; for example, the death cross predicted the 1929, 1938, 1974 and 2008 bear markets.

Importantly, they underscore the potency of a primary trend, enabling traders to navigate the chaotic waters of bitcoin’s (BTC) extreme intraday and day-to-day price volatility.

Golden cross

The golden cross occurs when a short-term MA crosses over a long-term one to the upside, signaling to traders to expect a strong bullish upward move in an asset’s price.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

There are two main requirements to a golden cross with the first being an end to a sharp downtrend due to seller exhaustion, meaning the downward pressure from sellers in the market has abated. The second requirement is for the short-term MA to rise above the long-term MA, typically the 50-period and 100-period MAs.

As seen highlighted above in green, a golden cross appeared on the daily chart for BTC in March, signaling a strong upward move away from the low of $3,122, witnessed Dec. 15, 2018.

Starting on March 12, prices rose by as much as 260 percent, from $3,859 to near $14,000 by June 26.

The golden cross is best used for analyzing long time frames compared to the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

Death cross

Conversely, a death cross is created by long-term buyer exhaustion, and an asset’s short-term MA crossing beneath a long-term MA, typically the 50- and 200-period averages.

On March 30, 2018, BTC showed greater bearish conditions when the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA, presaging a 54 percent decline in value from $6,850 to a bottom of $3,122 by Dec. 15.

As with the golden cross, the death cross is best identified using longer time frames, as the trend would need to be confirmed by not reversing the next day.

They’re not always perfect, but identifying and utilizing the golden and death crosses with other indicators can be an invaluable rudder, helping you to navigate the muddy waters of the world’s most volatile asset class.

Golden cross image via Shutterstock; charts via TradingView

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• BTC is on the defensive and may face selling pressure in the run up to the bearish crossover of the 100- and 200-day averages.
• Prices will likely breach the 50-day average support near $8,550 and extend losses toward $8,000 in the short term.
• Confirmation of the bear cross may mark an interim bottom in BTC, according to historical data.
• A high-volume move above a three-month descending trendline, currently at $9,200, is needed to revive the bullish view.

Bitcoin risks falling below key support near $8,550, with a widely followed bitcoin price indicator teasing its first bearish turn in over a year.

The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $8,610 on Bitstamp, having bounced up from the 50-day moving average (MA) support at $8,543 earlier today.

The 50-day MA has been restricting downside since Nov. 8, but may be breached soon, courtesy of a looming bearish crossover between major price averages.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Bitcoin’s 100-day MA (now at $9,436) is now beginning to trend south and looks set to cross below the 200-day MA (at $9,290) in the next couple of days. That would confirm a bearish crossover – the first of these MAs since April 17, 2018.

Seasoned traders would argue that MA crossovers are based on past data and are lagging indicators. While that’s true, BTC is already on the defensive, having repeatedly failed to break above a 3.5-month bearish trendline in the last three weeks.

The cryptocurrency has also found acceptance below the 200-day MA – a barometer of long-term trend. As such, the impending bear cross will likely bolster the bearish sentiment and give prices another nudge down.

Daily chart

The cryptocurrency has pulled back from $9,300 to $8,600 in the last few days, validating the bearish view put forward by the multiple rejections at the trendline connecting June and August highs.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

The relative strength index is hovering below 50, indicating a bearish bias, while the MACD histogram is producing deeper bars below the zero line – also a sign of strengthening downside momentum.

So, the 50-day MA support at $8,543 could be breached ahead of the bear cross. Below that level, the next major support is seen at $8,000.

The bearish case would weaken if there is a strong bounce from the 50-day MA, but that seems a tall order right now. A high-volume UTC close above the descending trendline hurdle at $9,200 is needed for bullish reversal.

Note that confirmation of the bear cross, however, could mark an interim bottom in BTC, as has been seen historically.

BTC sell-off ran out of steam near $275 two days ahead of a bear cross confirmation on Oct. 7, 2014, following which prices jumped to levels above $400 by mid-October, according to Bitstamp data. Another bear cross on April 29 the same year was followed by consolidation in the range of $420-$450 and a rally to $680 by early June.

And in 2018, prices rallied from $7,900 to levels near $10,000 in the 2.5 weeks following the bear cross in mid-April.

Back then, BTC was better bid in the days leading up to the crossover with prices rising from $6,500 to $8,500. In such situations, looming bearish crossovers barely receive any market attention.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin’s consecutive weekly losses and multiple failures at key resistance have shifted risk in favor of a drop to around $8,550 and perhaps as low as $8,000.
• Daily chart indicators have turned bearish for the first time in over a month, supporting the case for a deeper decline.
• A high-volume move above $9,335 (descending trendline from 2019 high) is needed to revive the bullish view.

Bitcoin is looking south after back-to-back weekly losses and multiple rejections at key price resistance.

The top cryptocurrency by market value fell 2.6 percent and 3 percent in the weeks ended Nov. 3 and 10, respectively.

Importantly, BTC has also failed for three straight weeks to close (Sunday, UTC) above the 3.5-month trendline sloping downwards from the 2019 high of $13,880. Acceptance above that hurdle would have meant a revival of the bull market set in motion by a solid break above $5,000 in early April.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The inability to pass that level (currently around $9,335) has weakened the bullish case put forward by the high-volume rise from $7,300 to $10,300 on Oct. 25–26.

Markets usually test dip demand after multiple rejections at key resistance and bitcoin is already feeling the pull of gravity. At press time, the cryptocurrency is trading at $8,680 on Bitstamp, representing a 1 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Losses could be extended further with the 200-day moving average support now breached. The barometer of long-term market trend is currently located at $9,236. Other technical indicators have also turned bearish over the weekend.

Weekly chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC is losing altitude, having faced rejection at the descending trendline for three straight weeks.

The 14-week relative strength index (RSI) remains in bearish territory below resistance at 53.00. It’s worth noting that the 53.00–55.00 range acted as a strong support throughout the 2016–2017 bull run.

Hence, a move above 55.00, if and when it occurs, could be taken as a confirmation of bull market.

Monthly and daily charts

Bitcoin’s failure to hold above the descending, bearish 5-candle MA (above left), as represented by the November candle’s upper wick, is translating into a price drop, as expected.

The MACD histogram on the daily chart (right) has crossed below zero over the weekend and is currently signaling at its most bearish since Oct. 3 with a -59.00 reading.  The RSI is currently bearish below 50.

BTC has also found acceptance below the 200-day MA – a level that acted as strong support in the nine days to Nov. 7.

All-in-all, BTC appears on track to test and possibly breach the 50-day MA at $8,552. A violation there would expose the psychological support of $8,000.

On the higher side, a convincing move above the 3.5-month descending trendline hurdle, currently at $9,335, is needed to confirm a bullish breakout.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin’s short-term 50-period moving average is edging closer toward the longer-term 100-period moving average on the weekly chart, hinting at a potential bullish “golden cross” formation for the first time in 3.5 years.
• In the shorter term, however, total weekly volume has fallen period-to-period as indecision continues to grip the market.
• Price action is caught between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs). The next major move either way is likely to determine trend bias going forward, if a firm close above or below those averages is confirmed.

Bitcoin (BTC) looks on track to produce a bullish long-term signal not seen in 3.5 years.

The 50-period and the 100-period MAs have edged closer together on the weekly chart after BTC rebounded from $7,293 to $10,350 on Oct. 26, according to Bitstamp data.

A cross of the 50-period MA moving up above the slower 100-period MA, known as a golden cross, generally hints at a strong shift in a trend and can act as confirmation of a bullish bias for the long-term view.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The last time that bull cross occurred on the weekly chart was way back in May 2016, when the price of BTC started rising from $438 to near $20,000 in December 2017 – a 4,800 percent increase. If the MA’s continue to converge as currently, the cross looks likely in late December or early 2020, but it’s still too early for a precise call.

Weekly chart

There is inherent risk involved with making such comparisons from previous years, as market conditions have changed significantly. Yet there is merit for seeking additional confirmation in the long-term trend, since BTC’s miner reward halving in May 2020 is likely to stir up a bunch of market activity as the supply-cutting event approaches.

Total weekly volume has shrunk from two weeks ago, an indication of market indecision on a fairly stagnant price, while the RSI is barely trending bullish above 52.7 (neutral being 50).

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

However, should the two lines converge and then cross bullish,  that would be a strong indication that the 2019 reversal rally has legs. With a strong fundamental event for BTC occurring right around the corner, it’s important to take note of the bullish signals on larger time frames.

More immediately, the daily chart suggests market equilibrium, as prices have been largely stuck within a $650 range for nearly two weeks.

Daily chart

BTC’s price action has been caught between the 100-day and 200-day MAs for 12 days.

Generally speaking, when prices are above the 200-day MA, the long-term trend can be considered bullish. Conversely, if prices are beneath the 100-day MA then that is an indication of mid-term (30-60 day) bearish conditions.

The current scenario highlights the indecisive sentiment felt across the market. A repeated failure to close above the 100-day MA could open up doors to $8,800 in the immediate short-term, as previously discussed.

Indecision will continue until a firm close above $9,573 (100-day MA) or below $9,180 (200-day MA) occurs with conviction, until then, continued sideways ranging can be expected.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by TradingView

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• Bitcoin’s repeated failure to produce a strong bounce from key support indicates the bullish sentiment has fizzled somewhat.
• Failure to hold above a bearish MA on the longer-term chart indicates scope for a deeper drop.
• BTC risks falling to $8,800 in the short-term and may extend the decline to $8,500.
• A high-volume triangle breakout on a 4-hour chart would be bullish, although that looks unlikely at press time.

Bitcoin is struggling to revive its stalled rally and could soon roll over to deeper support levels below $9,000.

The top cryptocurrency picked up a bid near $7,500 on Oct. 25 and jumped to $10,350 on the following day, according to Bitstamp data. The breakout into five figures, however, was short-lived, as prices quickly fell back below $10,000 on Oct. 28 and have remained largely trapped in a narrow range of $9,600–$9,000 since.

Downside has been restricted so far by the 200-day average – a barometer of long-term market trends. A pullback typically reverses from key support levels like the 200-day MA, especially if volumes are low, as has been the case recently.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

So far, however, the cryptocurrency has failed to produce a strong bounce from the support, despite positive seasonality.

Prices jumped more than $400 to $9,586 from the MA on Nov. 4 only to surrender gains on the following day. A similar weak bounce has been observed in the last 24 hours or so with prices rising to $9,450 only to dive back to lows near $9,200.

These shallow bounces indicate bullish sentiment generated by the sharp rise to $10,350 has weakened and the market may test dip demand by revisiting levels below $9,000.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $9,170 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.50 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

Daily chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC’s upside has been capped by the trendline connecting June 26 and Aug. 6 lows multiple times in the last few days. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency has tested the 200-day MA support five times in eight days.

Trading volumes have fallen sharply since the recent drop-off from $10,350. Low-volume pullbacks are often reversed, but a decent bounce continues to remain elusive.

All-in-all, the cryptocurrency looks set for a drop to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,800.

Monthly chart

The upper shadow of the monthly candle represents rejection above the 5-month MA at $9,265. A failure to hold above descending averages usually translates into a notable price drop. Major support is seen at the ascending 10-month MA near $8,000.

4-hour chart

The contracting triangle seen above looks likely to be breached to the lower side, as suggested by the daily and monthly indicators.

The ascending 100- and 200-candle MAs, currently at $8,928 and $8,558, respectively, could offer support if a drop out of the zone is confirmed.

The bearish view would be invalidated if the triangle ends with a high-volume bullish breakout. In that case, a retest of $10,000 could be seen.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• A four-month falling trendline proved a tough nut to crack during the Asian trading hours and reversed bitcoin’s rise from $9,200 to $9,500. The outlook, however, would turn bearish only below the 200-day average support at $9,127.
• The pullback from $9,500 to $9,200 lacked volume support and could be short-lived.
• A high-volume UTC close above $9,470 is needed to confirm an upside break of the multi-month falling trendline and open the doors for $13,880 (2019 high).
• Acceptance below the 200-day MA would weaken the immediate bullish. The resulting sell-off to $8,500, if any, will likely be transient.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle for a bullish breakout continues with a falling trendline capping gains for the fifth time in 11 days.

The top cryptocurrency is currently trading in the red near $9,300 on Bitstamp, having faced rejection near $9,470 – the resistance of the trendline connecting June 26 and Aug. 6 highs – during the Asian trading hours.

The four-month trendline sloping downwards from the 2019 high of $13,880 first came into play on Oct. 26. On that day, prices clocked a high of $10,350 but failed to print a UTC close above the resistance line.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Similar price action was seen on the following two days and on Monday when prices rose from $9,200 to a one-week high of $9,586 but failed to beat the trendline hurdle.

The repeated failure to scale the multi-month downtrend line may force some investors to question the sustainability of the recent rise from five-month lows below $7,500.

However, such fears may be premature, as prices are still holding above the 200-day MA support, a barometer of long-term market trends, as seen in the chart below.

Daily chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC is again struggling to get past the descending trendline, currently at $9,470. Even so, it is early to call a bearish reversal, as the 200-day MA support at $9,127 is intact.

The average has been restricting downside since Oct. 30, having worked as resistance multiple times in the 16 days to Oct. 11.

All-in-all, BTC is being squeezed between the long-term average support and the falling trendline resistance.

A high-volume UTC close above $9,470 is needed to confirm an upside break of the falling trendline. That would imply a resumption of the bull market from lows near $4,100 seen at the beginning of April and open the doors for resistance at $13,880.

On the downside, acceptance below the long-held 200-day MA support at $9,127 will likely invite stronger selling pressure, leading to a drop to $8,500.

A bullish breakout looks likely, as the cryptocurrency tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of reward halving, as discussed last week.

Note that the recent pullback from $10,350 lacked volume support. Essentially, it represents a bull breather and could be reversed.

Hourly chart

BTC jumped from $9,273 to $9,586 in the 60 minutes to 22:00 UTC on Monday with buying volume (green bar) hitting the highest level since Oct. 31.

Indeed, the spike has been erased with prices falling to $9,165 a few hours ago but with weak trading volumes.  Therefore, the possibility of BTC rising back to highs near $9,600 cannot be ruled out.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Bitcoin’s repeated defense of the 200-day average support indicates an end of the pullback from $10,350 and scope for a bounce to the 100-day average at $9,601.
• A UTC close above that level and a further rise to above $10,000 cannot be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacked volume support.
• Acceptance below the hourly chart support of $8,977 would weaken the case for a bounce in the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin looks primed for a price bounce to $9,600, having repeatedly defended long-term support in the last 72 hours.

The top cryptocurrency by market value began the week on a negative note by shedding 3.56 percent on Monday. Notably, BTC formed a candle with a long upper shadow on that day, signaling buyer exhaustion and opening the doors for a deeper drop to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820.

So far, however, the downside has been restricted around the 200-day moving average (MA), a widely-tracked barometer of the long-term market trend.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The cryptocurrency dipped to $8,985 on Thursday, below the 200-day MA, but soon recovered. On similar lines, Tuesday’s dip below the key average was shallow and short-lived.

Similarly, BTC came close to testing the MA at $9,046 during the Asian trading hours today before jumping back to highs near $9,200.

The repeated defense of the major support indicates the low-volume pullback from the high of $10,350 reached last Friday has likely ended and the risks are skewed to the upside.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $9,120 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.40 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Daily chart

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

BTC is defending the 200-day MA for the third straight day.

The cryptocurrency formed a doji candle on Thursday, which occurs when the market witnesses two-way business and a flat end of the day close (UTC). Usually, that candlestick pattern is taken as a sign of indecision in the market place.

The latest pattern, however, has appeared following a $1,000 pullback from $10,350 and represents indecision or exhaustion among sellers near the 200-day MA support.

As a result, a bounce, possibly to the 100-day MA at $9,601, may be in the offing in the next 24 hours or so.

Note that trading volumes dropped as prices pulled back from $10,350 to $9,000. A low-volume pullback is often reversed, so, a rally all the way back to $10,350 could be on the cards.

Bitcoin has also failed three times in the last six days to close above the 100-day MA. Therefore, if the bulls can pull off a UTC close above the average, it will likely invite stronger buying pressure and lead to a move above$10,350.

3-day chart

Bitcoin jumped 28 percent in the three days to Oct.27, reinforcing the bullish view put forward by the 100-candle MA’s move above the 200-candle MA (bull cross) confirmed in mid-October.

Further, the sharp rise was also backed by the highest trading volume since February 2018. The path of least resistance, therefore, is to the higher side.

Hourly chart

The case for a rise to $9,600 in the next 24 hours would weaken if the horizontal support line at $8,977 seen in the above chart is breached with strong volumes.

That would expose support lined up at $8,820 (Oct. 11 high). A violation there would prove costly as the next major support is lined up directly near$8,400.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• Monday’s Price Drop Didn’t Break Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend

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• Bitcoin tends to pick up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving, according to historical data.
• With the halving event due in May 2020, BTC may rise above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.
• Shorter term, a contracting triangle breakdown on the hourly chart suggests scope for a drop to $8,820 in the next 24 hours. The bear case would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance of $9,245.
• A quick move above $9,245 and a rally to the 100-day average at $9,606 shouldn’t be ruled out, as the recent pullback from $10,350 lacks volume support.

Bitcoin will likely put on a good show in November with a price-positive event due in six months.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is leaving October on a positive note, having recovered sharply from five-month lows below $7,500 seen a week ago.

The rally could be extended further next month, as the cryptocurrency is set to undergo a mining reward halving in May 2020. The process is aimed at curbing inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block mined on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for every block mined. That will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving, meaning 50 percent fewer bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. To put it another way, the supply of new coins will drop by half after May.

In the past, the cryptocurrency has picked up a strong bid six months ahead of the reward halving.

Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC rallied from $5 to $16 in the three months to mid-August and built a new base around $10.00 in November.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

On similar lines, BTC jumped from $360 to $780 in the four months to mid-June 2016, before trimming gains and falling back to $465 in August, when the block reward was cut from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The data indicates the market begins pricing in an impending supply cut six months in advance.

So, if history is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of $10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of $13,880 over the next couple of months.

Positive Seasonality

Adding to the likelihood of a rally, bitcoin has scored gains in November in six out of the last eight years.

Notably, November was a green month for six straight years from 2012 to 2017. The winning run ended last year with a 37 percent drop – the biggest November loss on record. Back then, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already dropped 70 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

This time, the overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the triple-digit year-to-date gains. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning tend.

Currently, bitcoin is changing hands around $9,100 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.2 percent drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between key moving averages (MAs), as seen in the chart below.

Daily and hourly charts

Bitcoin has come under pressure in the last 24 hours, as expected, but the downside is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $9,025.

The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart indicates that bitcoin could drop further to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820. A violation there would expose next support lined up at $8,474.

The outlook, as per the hourly chart, would turn bullish above the lower high of $9,245.  A quick move above $9,245 cannot be ruled out as the recent pullback from $10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low-volume correction is often short-lived.

A break above $9,245 would likely yield a retest of the 100-day MA at $9,606. Note that BTC has failed three times in the last five days to hold on to gains above the long-term average. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden bulls, leading to a sustained move above $10,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

Daily chart and hourly charts

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China influence

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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