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Why the Fed Jackson Hole Show Matters to Bitcoiners
When Jerome Powell steps up to the podium Friday at the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium, held virtually this year but traditionally near Jackson Hole, Wyo., the chair of the U.S. central bank is likely to deliver a speech that has had many revisions in the past two months.
Many market participants expect the Fed chair to announce a date and pace for tapering its $120 billion a month in bonds purchases. But the dominance of the Delta variant of COVID-19 makes such a pronouncement less certain, some economists say.
Some crypto analysts see tapering as an obstacle for bitcoin speculation because quantitative easing (QE) is generally thought to give investors the liquidity to invest more in riskier assets. Because of macroeconomic uncertainty created by the course of the pandemic, bitcoiners may be able to continue to count on quantitative easing staying at the same pace or tapering at a slower pace than might have been expected a few months ago, when coronavirus-related restrictions looked to be nearing an end and vaccines were becoming more widely distributed.
Related: Goldman Sachs Raises Odds of Fed Taper in November
“I was expecting him to maybe announce plans for tapering, but the increase in the Delta variant makes it less likely,” said David Beckworth, a former international economist at the U.S. Treasury Department, of Powell.
“We know for certain there’s more caution but the economy is still growing rapidly. Inflation is high,” said Beckworth, now a senior fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. “I think you can make a case for why they might still go ahead and taper.”
Less confidence“I would have more confidently said he was going to signal something more concrete than the committee has if this were maybe two months ago,” said Steven Kelly, a research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. “I assume he has ripped up a couple drafts in the intervening weeks given the state of the Delta virus and the fact that the conference itself has moved online due to disruptions.”
It’s possible that Powell will wade into the issue of stablecoins – digital tokens linked to government-issued currencies such as the U.S. dollar – and financial stability because that issue came up in last month’s Fed meeting minutes. But given the importance of monetary policy at Jackson Hole, it’s unlikely that crypto will come up in the speech, Beckworth said.
Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Stalls Near $50K Ahead of Options Expiration Date
Powell will also likely review what the central bank has learned so far with the implementation of its flexible average inflation targeting framework. The framework came at a good time because it allowed the Fed to respond to 2020’s inflation misses, but this past year has also made it more difficult to assess the success of the framework because most of the high inflation is supply-side inflation and not inflation across all prices, Beckworth added.
In last month’s Fed meeting minutes, officials at the central bank expressed an interest in delinking quantitative easing from interest rates, which could give the Fed more flexibility to maneuver without causing a “taper tantrum,” wherein market expectations for the Fed funds rate go up because investors expect interest rate hikes to follow, Kelly said.
‘Transitory’ or persistent?Because most inflation has been driven by supply chain bottlenecks, the Fed won’t feel much pressure to taper in response to inflation headlines. Powell has characterized the elevated inflation rate as “transitory.”
“There’s a reason they do these purchases in the billions and trillions [of dollars] because it takes so much of it to have an impact,” Kelly said. “Even with hundreds of billions of dollars of QE we’re talking about, maybe a 100 basis points impact – if you’re lucky – on the 10-year [Treasury bond] yield.”
General inflation is subdued, said Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson. “The 10-year real yield is negative 1%,” he said. That’s the nominal yield on the U.S. government bond, minus the inflation rate.
“What that tells us is that people are willing to lend money to the U.S. government at negative real interest rates, so there’s no real evidence of the economy overheating by that metric,” Brynjolfsson said.
With the $1 trillion infrastructure bill making its way through Congress, the pressure on the Fed to maintain economic growth may be eased, Brynjolfsson added.
“When the government spends money, it makes a huge difference as to whether that’s spent on investment like infrastructure, or whether it’s spent on current consumption, like payments to individuals,” Brynjolfsson said. “If it’s spent on investment, then that means that productivity is going to grow, capacity is going to grow and inflation is going to go down. If it’s spent on consumption, then you don’t have more supply and you don’t have more output.”
At the moment, it’s unknown when lower unemployment will lead to more general inflation and the Fed, policymakers and Congress will want to test how far they can push the economy, Brynjolfsson said.
“For most of the past decade, the Fed has missed by having an unemployment [rate] higher than what their target was, and also having inflation lower than what their target was,” he said. “Both of those point in the same direction that the Fed has been too tight.”
Related StoriesCoinbase Names Former Facebook Executive as Chief Marketing Officer
Coinbase has hired former Facebook veteran Kate Rouch as its new chief marketing officer, the cryptocurrency exchange giant’s president and chief operating officer, Emilie Choi, wrote in a blog post Thursday.
- Rouch, who will manage Coinbase’s branding, spent more than a decade at Facebook, most recently as its global head of brand and product marketing for Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, among other areas of the social media giant.
- Choi wrote that Rouch’s experience would help Coinbase in its effort “to bring millions more people into the crypto economy.”
- Rouch’s Facebook marketing teams won multiple advertising awards and helped increase the company’s active users from more than 500 million to almost three billion.
- “I am so inspired by what I’ve learned about crypto and the vast ecosystem it is helping to usher forth,” Rouch said, adding, “I can’t wait to get started helping to introduce millions more people to the benefits of crypto.”
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South Korea’s Top Financial Regulator Is Forming a Crypto Bureau
South Korea’s Financial Service Commission (FSC), the country’s top financial regulator, announced Thursday that it is forming an independent, crypto-focused bureau to supervise digital assets in South Korea.
- The new bureau will officially launch in September and fall under the authority of the Korea Financial Intelligence Unit (KFIU), an arm of the FSC that handles anti-money laundering enforcement.
- The new bureau will be called the Crypto Asset Monitoring Bureau and will be responsible for overseeing licenses for exchanges and other operators, according to a report from the Korea Times.
- In April, FSC officials said that exchanges that don’t register with and receive a license from KFIU by late September won’t be permitted to operate in South Korea. The FSC’s licenses require exchanges to tighten their know-your-customer (KYC) standards and collect personal information about customers.
- The bureau will also be responsible for looking out for suspicious activity, including fraud and money laundering, according to the Korea Times.
- South Korea’s crypto crackdown is tied to the growing level of debt among young people, which FSC Chief Koh Seung-beom has blamed, at least in part, on digital asset speculation.
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RLY Holders Approve Social Token Platform’s Decentralization Plan
Social token platform Rally is set to initiate a five-pronged decentralization plan after token holders voted unanimously in favor of the proposal Thursday.
Rally will now branch into a venture studio, a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), a nonprofit, an Asia-focused entity and U.S.-based Rally.
Platform leads pitched the new structure as a “major step” toward full decentralization – a common goal in the crypto sector. The proposal was submitted last week.
Related: A16z Details Its New Approach to Crypto Governance
Each wing will shortly receive millions of dollars in crypto-denominated funding from Rally’s treasury, according to the proposal. It’s part of Rally’s attempts to appeal to internet creators willing to experiment with tokenization – and fan engagement – in the digital economy.
“Rally offers a new frontier for creators to engage with their communities, receive meaningful value for their creative endeavors and have full ownership over their own independent economies,” said Bremner Morris, who becomes Rally’s CEO under the proposal.
Holders of Rally’s “social tokens” can use the Rally platform to create their own cryptocurrencies, and the tokens also give them access to content and products that haven’t been released.
The vote garnered 36 participants who used their RLY tokens to approve the plan. The voters committed 9.29 million RLY (worth roughly $5.5 million) for the duration of the vote.
Related StoriesA16z Details Its New Approach to Crypto Governance
Following a pair of controversial votes in the governance forums of the Uniswap exchange, venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) said in a blog post Thursday it will “open source” its decentralized finance (DeFi) delegation procedures.
Titled “Open Sourcing our Token Delegate Program,” the post lays out how a16z selects the individuals and entities it chooses to delegate its considerable voting heft to.
Given the size of the DeFi ecosystem – now rivaling mid-sized American banks at $146 billion in total value locked (TVL) – and the considerable governance token reserves controlled by a16z, this effort towards transparency sheds light on policies that have the power to shape an emerging financial vertical.
Related: RLY Holders Approve Social Token Platform’s Decentralization Plan
The a16z post shares a draft of the 1,500-word legal agreement intended to ensure delegate independence, shows a full breakdown of current a16z delegates and their voting power and explains a16z’s conceptual approach to delegation.
DAO voting and delegation will be managed by a new, four-person team led by a16z partner Jeff Amico, he said in an interview with CoinDesk. Former 0x engineer Alex Kroeger announced last week he’d also be joining the team:
The a16z Protocol team will be perhaps the first-ever third-party professional protocol politicians with a purview that will comfortably rank a16z among the most powerful voices in DAO governance.
The Protocol team will select the entities that will receive “well over half” of a16z’s voting powers, and also choose how to vote with the remaining percentage – ultimately commanding a pot of tokens that can single-handedly sway governance proposals.
DAO democracyRelated: Can Avalanche Keep It Up? DeFi Users Rush In as Incentives Roll Out
The effort to “open source” delegate procedures comes after a pair of controversial votes in Uniswap’s DAO governance system.
In June, a proposal passed to fund a $20 million DeFi Education Fund designed to engage in political activism. The proposal, which was written by a16z delegate Harvard Law Blockchain and Fintech Initiative and which a16z voted in favor of, was broadly criticized for lacking transparency and oversight mechanisms.
Last week, a16z also voted against a proposal to allocate $25 million in UNI toward yield farming, the proceeds of which would have been used to fund analytics firm Flipside Crypto. In a Twitter thread explaining the rationale behind the vote, Amico wrote that a lack of transparency and oversight was a motivating factor:
Even by the standards of sometimes-rancorous DeFi governance forums, the Flipside vote was contentious and messy – including bugs that flipped intended “No” votes to “Yes” and multiple parties with relationships to a16z publicly disagreeing on Twitter.
The final vote on the proposal was 47,624,544 in favor to 46,988,497 (meaning UNI owners accounting for 18% of the circulating token supply participated in the vote, an unusually high percentage), though it was cancelled because Index Coop, which delegated its UNI to Flipside in order to make the proposal, fell below a necessary UNI ownership threshold to keep the proposal live.
A16z and its delegates accounted for a significant portion of the voting power. The venture capital firm cast a “No” vote with just over 15 million UNI ($375 million), while a16z delegates Dharma, Argent, the Stanford blockchain club, the Columbia University blockchain club and Compound contributor Getty Hill pitched in another 22,728,754 million UNI – almost 40% of the UNI represented in the vote in aggregate.
If the analysis were to include parties with a financial relationship with a16z, such as Robert Leshner, who founded the a16z-funded Compound, the percentage climbs higher.
CoinDesk could not verify if a16z’s delegates were voting only with their delegated tokens or with their personal stake as well, and likewise CoinDesk could not verify if the nearly 38 million tokens on display represent a16z’s full UNI ownership stake or if its net holdings are larger.
Sybil.org, a dapp designed to make delegating DeFi governance votes easier, shows that a16z’s 15 million voting stake is itself delegated from 10 different wallets.
A16z has never publicly disclosed the quantities of governance tokens they hold in major DeFi protocols such as Maker, Compound and Uniswap. The VC firm also has investments in multiple companies expected to launch governance tokens, including OpenSea and Nansen.
TransparencyAmico told CoinDesk that the “open sourcing” of the delegate program is a bid to lift the veil on how a16z approaches protocol governance.
“If we’ve had a fault to date, it’s been a lack of transparency,” he said.
The goal moving forward is to “build in public.” One key takeaway from the Flipside vote, Amico added, was that there is significant appetite for more public governance debate. As such, he told CoinDesk that the Protocol team will be communicating its thoughts on governance developments more frequently in the future.
Additionally, a16z said the team would be open to providing smart-contract-based guarantees of delegate independence (rather than possibly flimsy legal ones) as the technology becomes available, and that the team would be open to delegating voting power to an organization that is itself decentralized, such as a DAO.
In a somewhat symbolic gesture given that there’s little to no associated code, the team has also posted the details of its delegate selection process on the software development platform and open-source hotspot GitHub, and is inviting public comments, contributions and conversation.
Ultimately, a16z’s Amico said a long-term aim is to inspire other large token holders, such as VCs, to rethink their approach to governance:
“Our hope is that presenting a systematic, thoughtful way to do this will lead to others trying it too.”
Related StoriesConstellation Network to Provide US Air Force With Blockchain Security for Data Sharing
Blockchain firm Constellation Network is to provide end-to-end security for data sharing between the U.S. Department of Defense and its commercial partners.
- Constellation has secured a SBIR Phase II contract with the U.S. Air Force to develop a way of exchanging mission data securely across the Defense Transportation System.
- The contract is a transition from the Phase I contact secured by Constellation two years ago.
- In partnership with Kinnami Software, Constellation has applied its Hypergraph Transfer Protocol to create a security product that uses blockchain encryption and distributed data management.
- The aim is to solve “an important identified mission security need,” according to an announcement by Constellation Thursday.
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“There’s an NFT component to them but then a bunch of other smart contract infrastructure that basically enables the distributed collection of royalties from the off-chain world to the on-chain world.”
Related StoriesAnchorage Hires Former Wells Fargo Digital Assets Executive for Banking, Capital Markets
Crypto bank Anchorage said Thursday it has hired former Wells Fargo blockchain executive Ken Chapman to be its director of banking and capital markets products.
“My primary role is going to be helping Anchorage address the overwhelming demand they’re receiving from banks for their services, including custody, trading and lending,” Chapman said. “I’m also going to be helping banks look at a different paradigm for settlement using blockchain as a rail.”
Chapman led digital assets and blockchain initiatives for the capital markets team at Wells Fargo for two years. He has also worked for Bank of America, BNY Mellon, investment firm Bridgewater Associates, JPMorgan and UBS.
Related: Citigroup se prepara para operar futuros de bitcoin en la Bolsa Mercantil de Chicago
Chapman said he envisions most banks setting up lending facilities for customers to take out loans against crypto collateral in the future. In addition to providing trading and custody services, banks will be looking for a federally chartered institution to partner with, he said. In June, Anchorage began offering ether-backed loans through Massachusetts-based BankProv.
“Anchorage is the first digital asset company to receive a federal charter from the OCC,” Chapman said, referring to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. “This is the same charter that other banks like BNY Mellon … I am moving from a traditional bank to a digital asset bank, but it’s still a bank.”
Related StoriesBrazilian Police Seize $28.8M in Crypto: Report
Brazilian Federal Police seized R$150 million ($28.8 million) in crypto assets and made five arrests after cracking down on an alleged financial pyramid scheme, according to a CNN Brazil report.
- Police carried out 15 search warrants and also seized R$19 million ($3.6 million) in cash, 21 luxury vehicles, high-end watches and jewelry on Wednesday, CNN said.
- The operation dubbed “Operation Kryptos” involved police investigating an alleged financial pyramid scheme.
- Police made five arrests, including Glaidson Acácio dos Santos, the owner of a bitcoin consultancy based in the Lakes Region of Rio de Janeiro. He has a custody hearing today.
- His defense team released the following statement to CNN: “Glaidson Acácio’s defense is aware of the arrest and so far without access to the contents of the investigations. Only after proper analysis of all documentation will we be able to express ourselves in a concrete manner.”
- In July, Brazil’s civil police seized $33 million in an investigation into money laundering carried out through crypto exchanges in Sao Paulo and Diadema.
Read more: Brazilian Police Seize $33M in Crypto Money Laundering Probe
Related StoriesBitcoin Eyes 200-Day Moving Average Support as $2B Options Expiration Nears
Bitcoin is again experiencing moderate price turbulence heading into the monthly options expiration.
The cryptocurrency is trading at about $47,000 at press time, representing a 4.4% drop on the day, CoinDesk 20 data show. The decline has reversed Wednesday’s 2.7% gain and exposed bitcoin to the widely tracked 200-day moving average (MA) line located at $46,040
“What we are seeing is typical pre-expiry price volatility,” said Philippe Bekhazi, CEO at XBTO Group. “[The] market generally rebounds after monthly settlement.”
Related: AriseCoin Inventor Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison for Securities Fraud
A total of 42,500 option contracts worth roughly $2 billion are set to expire on Friday, according to data provided by Skew. The dominant crypto options exchange Deribit will settle the majority of open interest at 8:00 UTC.
Data since January show bitcoin tends to move toward the “max pain” point in the lead-up to an expiration and sees a solid directional move in days after settlement. In traditional market theory, that behavior results from option sellers, mostly institutions, manipulating the spot market to push prices closer to the strike price at which the highest number of open options contracts expire worthlessly, yielding maximum losses – or maximum pain – for option buyers and minimizing losses for the sellers.
History seems to be repeating itself, as the max pain point for Friday’s monthly expiration is $44,000, according to Deribit. The options market has also flipped bearish for the short term, with the one-week put-call skew reporting positive values at press time. That’s a sign of short-term puts, or bearish bets, drawing higher demand than calls. The one-month skew is neutral, while the three- and six-month skews are still trading negative, indicating a long-term bullish bias.
A continued inflow of BTC onto crypto exchanges could also bring some price volatility. Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant data show the Huobi exchange received 23,256 BTC at 06:08 UTC today.
Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Back Above $48K, Expect Consolidation
“It’s an actual deposit from a user,” CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat. Users typically transfer bitcoin to exchanges when they plan to liquidate holdings or sell coins to fund derivatives and alternative cryptocurrency trading, leading to increased price turbulence.
“Bitcoin reserve across all exchanges is increasing lately, and this could affect the market in the short term,” Ju said. “These bitcoins could be sold, used as collateral for derivative trading, or used for altcoin trading. Either way, it increases the market volatility.”
From a technical analysis standpoint, the immediate bias has flipped bearish owing to the cryptocurrency’s failure to keep gains above $50,000 earlier this week.
“Both bitcoin and ether confirmed short-term counter-trend ‘sell’ signals per the DeMark indicators, which have been fairly timely in the past as indicators of short-term inflections,” Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, said in an email. “The message is for another 1-2 weeks of sideways-to-lower price action.”
Stockton added that while the intermediate-term momentum remains positive, some risk management may be necessary for the very near term, given the 50-day MA at $39,652 is the initial support. Meanwhile, XBTO’s Bekhazi mentioned $46,800 as key support.
Also read: Bitcoin Miners Hold Onto Rigs, Betting the Bull Run Will Continue
Related StoriesBitcoin Eyes 200-Day MA Support as $2B Options Expiration Nears
Bitcoin is again experiencing moderate price turbulence while heading into the monthly options expiration.
The cryptocurrency is trading near $47,000 at press time, representing a 4.4% drop on the day, CoinDesk 20 data show. The decline has reversed Wednesday’s 2.7% gain and exposed the widely tracked 200-day moving average (MA) line located at $46,040
“What we are seeing is typical pre-expiry price volatility,” said Phillipe Bekhazi, CEO at XBTO Group. “[The] market generally rebounds after monthly settlement.”
Related: AriseCoin Inventor Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison for Securities Fraud
A total of 42,500 option contracts worth roughly $2 billion are set to expire on Friday, according to data provided by Skew. The dominant crypto options exchange Deribit will settle the majority of open interest at 8:00 UTC.
Data since January show bitcoin tends to move toward the “max pain” point in the lead up to the expiration and sees a solid directional move in days after settlement. In traditional market theory, this behavior results from option sellers, mostly institutions, manipulating the spot market to push prices closer to the strike price at which the highest number of open options contracts expire worthlessly, yielding maximum losses – or maximum pain – for option buyers and minimizing losses for the sellers.
History seems to be repeating itself, as the max pain point for Friday’s monthly expiration is $44,000, according to Deribit. The options market has also flipped bearish for the short term, with the one-week put-call skew reporting positive values at press time. That’s a sign of short-term puts, or bearish bets, drawing higher demand than calls. The one-month skew is neutral, while the three- and six-month skews are still trading negative, indicating a long-term bullish bias.
A continued inflow of BTC onto crypto exchanges could also bring some price volatility. Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant data show Huobi exchange received 23,256 BTC at 06:08 UTC today.
Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Back Above $48K, Expect Consolidation
“It’s an actual deposit from a user,” CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat. Users typically transfer bitcoins to exchanges when they plan to liquidate holdings or sell coins to fund derivatives and alternative cryptocurrency trading, leading to increased price turbulence.
“Bitcoin reserve across all exchanges is increasing lately, and this could affect the market in the short term,” Ju said. “These Bitcoins could be sold, used as collateral for derivative trading, or used for altcoin trading. Either way, it increases the market volatility.”
From a technical analysis standpoint, the immediate bias has flipped bearish owing to the cryptocurrency’s failure to keep gains above $50,000 earlier this week.
“Both bitcoin and ether confirmed short-term counter-trend ‘sell’ signals per the DeMARK Indicators, which have been fairly timely in the past as indicators of short-term inflections,” Katie Stockton, founder, and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, said in an email. “The message is for another 1-2 weeks of sideways-to-lower price action.”
Stockton added that while the intermediate-term momentum remains positive, some risk management may be necessary for the very near term, given the 50-day MA at $39,652 is the initial support. Meanwhile, XBTO’s Bekhazi mentioned $46,800 as key support.
Also read: Bitcoin Miners Hold Onto Rigs, Betting the Bull Run Will Continue
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Microsoft Is Awarded US Patent for Crypto Token-Creation Service
Microsoft has been awarded a U.S. patent for software it says can help users develop blockchain applications by making it easier and more efficient to create crypto tokens for different distributed ledgers.
- According to the patent, creating and managing tokens is currently “difficult and cumbersome” due to the lack of standardization across different blockchains.
- Microsoft’s patent describes a ledger-independent system for helping users to create tokens, and for managing them across different networks.
- On receiving a request from a user, the system offers templates with various attributes and control functions. Those would depend on the type of token required, representing, for example, a digital or physical asset. Once the user has selected the desired template, the system creates the token on the designated networks.
- The system also provides a common interface for managing the tokens, so developers don’t have to worry about token-specific code to interact with them.
India’s Securities Watchdog to Launch System for Monitoring Financial Instruments
India’s securities watchdog plans to lean heavily on distributed ledger technology for the monitoring and recording of financial instruments, beginning next year.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) announced Wednesday its intentions to roll out a system for “security and covenant monitoring” for non-convertible debentures (NCDs) by April 1, 2022.
It marks a significant step for the use case of blockchain within India’s financial ecosystem and follows other major institutions in leveraging the technology for increased systems efficiency.
Related: Stock and Crypto Investor Sign-Ups Jump 45% Year-on-Year Across Rural India: Report
NCDs are financial instruments that recognize a debt obligation toward the issuer. Typically a debenture is a long-term instrument with a feature that allows it to be cashed in for shares at a later date at the discretion of the owner. Debentures that cannot be converted into shares are considered “non-convertible” products.
The system will also keep tabs on covenants – terms inserted into a debt agreement – and will monitor the credit ratings of the NCDs. The system will provide necessary permission to trustees, issuers, and credit rating agencies to update transaction data. In turn, the data will be accessible to stock exchanges and depositories to provide for a more transparent process.
Data stored will be cryptographically signed, time-stamped, and sequentially added to the ledger, leaving behind a verifiable audit trail of transactions. Transaction history and data on the ledger will be “fully” encrypted and will be shared only with necessary stakeholders on a “need-to-know basis,” SEBI said in its statement.
“DLT has the potential to provide a more resilient system than traditional centralized databases and offer better protection against different types of cyber-attacks because of its distributed nature, which removes the single point of attack,” the watchdog said.
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