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Bitcoin Eyes First Test of $7.2K Price Support Since April

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
  • A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
  • A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
  • A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: Bitcoin Closing on Daily Golden Cross That Could Bring Boost to 2020 Price Rally

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Eyes First Test of $7.2K Price Support Since April

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
  • A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
  • A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
  • A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: US DOJ Calls Bitcoin Mixing ‘a Crime’ in Arrest of Software Developer

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: Here’s How to Inspect Bitcoin’s Next (Likely) Major Upgrade Yourself

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Eyes First Test of $7.2K Price Support Since April

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
  • A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
  • A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
  • A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: Here’s How to Inspect Bitcoin’s Next (Likely) Major Upgrade Yourself

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: $400 Drop: Bitcoin Faces Further Downside After Rejection at Price Hurdle

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Eyes First Test of $7.2K Price Support Since April

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
  • A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
  • A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
  • A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: $400 Drop: Bitcoin Faces Further Downside After Rejection at Price Hurdle

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: Coinbase Revives Margin Trading, With Conservative (for Crypto) 3x Leverage

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Eyes First Test of $7.2K Price Support Since April

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
  • A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
  • A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
  • A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: Coinbase Revives Margin Trading, With Conservative (for Crypto) 3x Leverage

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Eyes First Test of $7.2K Price Support Since April

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • A high-volume range breakdown seen on the daily chart suggests scope for test of a long-term moving average at $7,200. A violation there would expose another major average support at $7,000.
  • A corrective bounce above resistance at $7,534 could be seen before a deeper drop, as the intraday charts are reporting oversold conditions.
  • A lagging indicator suggests BTC may bottom out in the range of $7,000 to $7,200.
  • A UTC close above the Oct. 21 high of $8,352 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Long-term bitcoin price support at $7,200 may be put to test for the first time in six months, likely after a minor price bounce.

The crypto market leader fell by $500 to $7,500 during the U.S. trading hours on Wednesday, confirming a downside break of the recent trading range of $7,800 to $8,400.

Prices went on to hit a five-month low of $7,293 before printing a UTC close at $7,470 – down 6.92 percent on the day, according to Bitstamp data. That’s the biggest single-day drop since Sept. 24, when prices had declined by 11.83%.

Related: Bitcoin Most ‘Overbought’ in 2 Years After Price Rises Back Above $10K

The range breakdown indicates the sell-off from highs above $10,000 seen on Sept. 23 has resumed and prices could test support at $7,200 – the 100-period moving average on the three-day chart. That MA line was last put to test at the end of April.

The drop to the key support, however, may be preceded by a minor corrective bounce, as the intraday chart indicators are reporting oversold conditions.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 46 percent loss from 2019’s high of $13,880 registered on June 26.  That said, the cryptocurrency is still reporting a 100 percent gain on a year-to-date basis and is the best performing asset of 2019.

Daily and 3-day charts

Related: Bitcoin Price Hits 5-Month High Above $10,350

Wednesday’s range breakdown (above left) is backed by an uptick in trading volumes to the highest level since Sept. 26 and looks to have legs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived below the ascending trendline, invalidating the bullish divergence confirmed on Oct. 6. A failed bullish divergence is widely considered as a powerful bearish signal.

As a result, the cryptocurrency appears on track to test the three-day chart 100-candle MA at $7,200 (above right). A violation there would expose the 200-candle MA, currently located just below $7,000.

The sell-off may stall around the aforementioned crucial support levels, as the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are about to produce a death cross – a bearish, but a lagging indicator, which trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in April 2018 and September 2015.

Hourly and 4-hour charts

The RSIs on the hourly and 4-hour charts are reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print. So, a corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

The former support-turned-resistance of $7,714 (Sept. 30 low) could come into play if the immediate resistance at $7,534 (horizontal line on hourly) is scaled in the next 24 hours.

The outlook would turn bullish if and when prices rise above the Oct. 20 high of $8,352, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup on the daily chart.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Bitcoin Drops Over 3% Despite Golden Cross and Bank Calls for More US Stimulus

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Rebounds to $9,500 After Scary Sell-Off

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Rebounds to $9,500 After Scary Sell-Off

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Price Drops 7% in an Hour After Bitcoin Sees a Ghost

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Price Drops 7% in an Hour After Bitcoin Sees a Ghost

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: 50 BTC Just Moved for First Time Since 2009 – But It Doesn’t Look Like Satoshi

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Bitcoin Options: Deribit Exchange Sees Record Open Interest of $1B

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Team Behind Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Explains Shutdown

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Bitcoin Options: Deribit Exchange Sees Record Open Interest of $1B

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Paused Due to Poorly Tested Redemption Code

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC Paused Due to Poorly Tested Redemption Code

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: This Bitcoin Documentary From Africa Is Streaming on Amazon Prime

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: This Metric Shows Bitcoin Is Undervalued Even After 150% Price Rally

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Market Wrap: Here’s Why Ether’s Price Has Jumped 65% So Far This Year

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: This Metric Shows Bitcoin Is Undervalued Even After 150% Price Rally

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: This Metric Shows Bitcoin Is Undervalued Even After 150% Price Rally

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Iran Moves to Restrict Crypto Exchanges Under ‘Currency Smuggling’ Laws

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment Feels Like Post-Halving Easing Party

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Bitcoin’s Impending Golden Cross May Bolster Bulls: Analysts

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Stuck in High $9K Range as Stocks Soar on Powell Comments

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Bug Forces Shutdown of Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Bug Forces Shutdown of Bitcoin-Backed Ethereum Token tBTC

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin’s 2020 Rally Sends Message to Capitalists as Despair on Wall Street Grows

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin’s 2020 Rally Sends Message to Capitalists as Despair on Wall Street Grows

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: Bitcoin Battles for $10K as Gold Prints Over 7-Year High

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 6.5-Month Low as Price Falls Back to $8,000

6 years 11 months ago

View
  • Bitcoin has dropped by $300 in the last 24 hours. Even so, the outlook remains neutral as key Fibonacci retracement support at $7,850 is still intact.
  • Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has dropped to the lowest level in over six months. The low volatility period will likely end with a big move on the higher side, as a repeated defense of $7,850 is indicating seller exhaustion.
  • A UTC close above $8,820 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
  • A high-volume move below $7,850 would confirm range breakdown. However, an impending death cross, a bearish but contrary indicator, suggests the downside, if any, could be limited around $7,400.

Bitcoin’s struggle for clear directional bias looks set to end, with volatility hitting multi-month lows and the charts suggesting a big move could soon occur on the higher side.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has spent a better part of the last four weeks trading the range of $7,800 to $8,400.

A double bottom breakout on Oct. 9 had raised hopes of a move above $9,000. The ascent, however, stalled $8,820 on Oct. 11 following which prices fell back to $7,800.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Dips as Stock Markets Close Lower on the Week

Further, the cryptocurrency failed to draw bids above $8,300 over the last two days despite the bullish setup on intraday charts and retreated back to $7,920 during the Asian trading hours today.

With the lackluster price action, bitcoin’s 60-day daily return volatility, as calculated by Coinmetrics, has dropped to 2.58 percent – the lowest level since April 1.

The volatility gauge topped out above 5.5 percent in July and has been on a steady decline ever since, as seen in the chart below.

Related: CZ’s Twitter Feed Swayed New CoinMarketCap Ranking That Put Binance on Top

An extended period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side.

For instance, the 60-day volatility topped out at 5 percent in early January and fell to 2 percent on April 1 – a day before BTC broke in a bull market with a $1,000 rally to $5,000. Going back further, volatility has bottomed out quite a few times near or below 2 percent.

BTC, therefore, could soon adopt a strong directional bias. The risks are skewed in favor of a bullish move, according to technical charts.

Weekly chart

Bitcoin dived out a contracting triangle in the last week of September, signaling a continuation of the pullback from June’s high of $13,880.

The ensuing sell-off, however, ran out of steam near $7,850 – the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,122 to $13,880 – over the last three weeks.

The repeated defense of the Fibonacci support indicates seller exhaustion. The indicators on the three-day chart are also echoing similar sentiments, as discussed on Tuesday.

BTC, therefore, could see a strong bounce, possibly to levels above $8,820 (Oct. 11 high) in the short term. That would invalidate the lower highs setup on the daily chart and open the doors for resistance at $9,320.

As of now, BTC is changing hands at $7,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 2.8 percent loss on a 24-hour basis.

The outlook would turn bearish if prices drop below $7,850 with strong volumes, confirming a range breakdown.

Even so, a big sell-off, similar to the $2,000 drop seen in September, looks unlikely, and the downside could be restricted near $7,430 (multiple daily lows in early June), as a contrary indicator is about to turn bearish, as seen below.

Daily chart

The impending death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, has trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market in the past.

For instance, BTC had bottomed out near $220 with the confirmation of the death cross in mid-September 2015. Notably, the bear trap was formed 11 months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving – a price-bullish event.

Interestingly, the latest death cross is happening six months ahead of the reward halving and could mark a bottom in BTC.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by Trading View

Related Stories
CoinDesk
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