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• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: First Mover: Ether Trounces Bitcoin as Network See Surge in Stablecoins

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Steady at $7.5K as Short Sellers Back Off

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin
• Oil’s Been More Volatile Than Bitcoin for Nearly 2 Months, Data Shows

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Steady at $7.5K as Short Sellers Back Off

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Oil’s Been More Volatile Than Bitcoin for Nearly 2 Months, Data Shows
• First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Oil’s Been More Volatile Than Bitcoin for Nearly 2 Months, Data Shows

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving
• Bitcoin Messenger Explores Censorship Resistance During Coronavirus Crisis

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Oil’s Been More Volatile Than Bitcoin for Nearly 2 Months, Data Shows

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Messenger Explores Censorship Resistance During Coronavirus Crisis
• Market Wrap: Bitcoin Gains as Futures Dance the Contango

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin Messenger Explores Censorship Resistance During Coronavirus Crisis

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Market Wrap: Bitcoin Gains as Futures Dance the Contango
• Bitcoin Rallies 10% Ahead of CME April Futures Expiration

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Messenger Explores Censorship Resistance During Coronavirus Crisis

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Gains as Futures Dance the Contango

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Rallies 10% Ahead of CME April Futures Expiration
• First Mover: Bitcoin Catches Almighty Dollar Even During 2020’s Dash for Cash

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Rallies 10% Ahead of CME April Futures Expiration

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Catches Almighty Dollar Even During 2020’s Dash for Cash

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Market Wrap: Oil Rebounds As Crypto Makes Gains, Especially Ether
• Stablecoins Aren’t Inflating Crypto Market, Study Concludes

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Catches Almighty Dollar Even During 2020’s Dash for Cash

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Market Wrap: Oil Rebounds As Crypto Makes Gains, Especially Ether

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Stablecoins Aren’t Inflating Crypto Market, Study Concludes
• Bitcoin Approaches $7K as US Passes New $480B Stimulus Package

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Oil Rebounds As Crypto Makes Gains, Especially Ether

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Stablecoins Aren’t Inflating Crypto Market, Study Concludes

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Approaches $7K as US Passes New $480B Stimulus Package
• First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Stablecoins Aren’t Inflating Crypto Market, Study Concludes

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin Approaches $7K as US Passes New $480B Stimulus Package

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation
• Market Wrap: Oil in Turmoil, Bitcoin Gains Slightly to $6.9K

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Approaches $7K as US Passes New $480B Stimulus Package

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Market Wrap: Oil in Turmoil, Bitcoin Gains Slightly to $6.9K
• First Mover: 10 Takeaways for Bitcoin From Negative Oil Prices

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Market Wrap: Oil in Turmoil, Bitcoin Gains Slightly to $6.9K

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• First Mover: 10 Takeaways for Bitcoin From Negative Oil Prices
• Bitcoin Under Pressure After Oil Prices Crash to Record Lows

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Oil in Turmoil, Bitcoin Gains Slightly to $6.9K

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: First Mover: 10 Takeaways for Bitcoin From Negative Oil Prices

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Under Pressure After Oil Prices Crash to Record Lows
• Market Wrap: Oil Futures Plunge, Bitcoin Dips and Tether Has a $7B Day

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: First Mover: 10 Takeaways for Bitcoin From Negative Oil Prices

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin Under Pressure After Oil Prices Crash to Record Lows

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Market Wrap: Oil Futures Plunge, Bitcoin Dips and Tether Has a $7B Day
• First Mover: Bitcoin Attracting More Buyers, Even With Market Stuck in ‘Extreme Fear’

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Market Wrap: Oil Futures Plunge, Bitcoin Dips and Tether Has a $7B Day

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Attracting More Buyers, Even With Market Stuck in ‘Extreme Fear’

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Volatility at 3-Month Low as Market Awaits Big Price Move
• Hong Kong’s First Regulator-Approved Bitcoin Fund Targets $100M Raise

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: First Mover: Bitcoin Attracting More Buyers, Even With Market Stuck in ‘Extreme Fear’

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bitcoin Volatility at 3-Month Low as Market Awaits Big Price Move

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Hong Kong’s First Regulator-Approved Bitcoin Fund Targets $100M Raise
• Crypto Long & Short: The Battle of the Yields

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bitcoin Volatility at 3-Month Low as Market Awaits Big Price Move

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Hong Kong’s First Regulator-Approved Bitcoin Fund Targets $100M Raise

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Crypto Long & Short: The Battle of the Yields
• Bram Cohen: ‘Getting Rich Is a Terrible Metric of Success’

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Hong Kong’s First Regulator-Approved Bitcoin Fund Targets $100M Raise

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Crypto Long & Short: The Battle of the Yields

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bram Cohen: ‘Getting Rich Is a Terrible Metric of Success’
• Market Wrap: Crypto Mining Stock Hut 8 Jumps on Unusually High Trading Volume

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Crypto Long & Short: The Battle of the Yields

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Bram Cohen: ‘Getting Rich Is a Terrible Metric of Success’

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Market Wrap: Crypto Mining Stock Hut 8 Jumps on Unusually High Trading Volume
• Bitcoin Halving Searches on Google Hits All-Time Highs

• The three-day chart MACD’s first bullish turn in over three months could bode well for bitcoin’s price, according to historical data. The cryptocurrency may challenge 2019 high above $13,800 before the year’s end.
• The immediate outlook, however, is bearish and prices could drop to $8,800 in the next day or two, with the daily chart reporting buyer exhaustion. Further, China’s state media has asked investors to avoid speculative behavior which could dampen trading.
• A pennant breakout on the hourly chart could yield a re-test of recent highs above $10,000, although that looks unlikely.

A widely-tracked bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned bullish for the first time in over three months, hinting that a move to yearly highs lies ahead.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram – an indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength – has crossed above zero on the three-day chart, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. A positive reading was last observed in the first half of July.

Seasoned traders may argue that the MACD’s bullish turn cannot be trusted, as it is based on moving averages (MAs) which are lagging indicators.

Related: Bram Cohen: ‘Getting Rich Is a Terrible Metric of Success’

While that sounds logical, the histogram has a strong track record of predicting trend changes and big moves, as seen in the chart below.

The MACD crossed above zero in late December 2018, confirming a bottom had been made near $3,100 and remained in the bullish territory throughout the first quarter, even though bitcoin’s recovery rally remained capped above $4,000.

The cryptocurrency broke into a bull market on April 2 with a convincing move above a bearish lower high of $4,236 created on Dec. 24.

Related: Market Wrap: Crypto Mining Stock Hut 8 Jumps on Unusually High Trading Volume

The histogram fell below zero on Nov. 14 as prices breached the long-held support of $6,000. What followed was a sell-off to $3,100.

Going further back, the indicator’s bullish turn in Oct. 2017 was followed by a meteoric rise from $7,000 to $20,000. Meanwhile, a drop below zero in early January 2018 fueled a deeper slide in bitcoin’s price from $13,000 to $6,000.

So if history is a guide, the MACD’s latest bullish turn could see bitcoin breaking out of a four-month falling channel and challenging yearly highs above $13,800 before the year’s end.

Supporting the bullish case is another piece of historical data that says BTC picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the mining reward halving due in May 2020.

So far, however, the MACD’s move above zero has failed to be reflected in price gains. BTC is currently changing hands at $9,470 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.6 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, having faced rejection near the 100-day MA resistance at $9,625 during the Asian trading hours.

Notably, bitcoin failed to close above the 100-day MA for the third straight day on Tuesday, having faced rejection above $10,000 over the weekend. as seen below.

The repeated failure to hold onto gains above the 100-day MA indicates buyer exhaustion. A similar sentiment is echoed by Tuesday’s red candle with a long upper shadow.

As a result, the odds of BTC diving out of the contracting triangle, or pennant pattern, on the hourly chart are high. At press time, the lower edge of the pennant is located at  $9,260.

A breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a sell-off to the former resistance-turned-support of $8,820 (formerly a bearish lower high).

On the other hand, a high-volume pennant breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from Friday’s low near $7,400 and will likely yield a quick break above $10,000.

China’s state media has called investors to stay rational and avoid speculative behavior. The warning has come after Monday’s sharp rise in blockchain-related stocks in China.

Investors poured money into bitcoin and blockchain-focused stocks after President Xi Jinping said last week that the world’s second-largest economy should accelerate its adoption of the blockchain technology.

The comments by China’s state media may force investors to scale back lofty expectations, leading to a price drop. A pennant breakdown, therefore, looks likely.

The overall outlook would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency invalidates the four-month bearish trend, as discussed on Monday.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

• Bitcoin Halving Searches on Google Hits All-Time Highs
• First Mover: Stablecoin Surge Might Herald Bitcoin Binge