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Can Amarin Soar 420% Over the Next Year? This Analyst Thinks So
Amarin (AMRN) is seriously undervalued, according to Cantor analyst Louise Chen.
On Monday, the drug maker presented encouraging new data from the REDUCE-IT study. After taking 4g a day of Vascepa, Amarin’s high triglycerides treatment, diabetes patients experienced a 23% drop in both first and total primary composite major adverse cardiovascular events. Chen thinks this data underscores Vascepa's “continuing commercial success and future potential.”
“We believe the news is important because it is the first time that data specific to the diabetes population has been presented. Included for example was that in the diabetic patients treated in REDUCE-IT more than half of such patients were already on two or more drugs for diabetes and over 90% were on at least one such medicine. This emphasized that the Vascepa results were incremental to the lowering of A1C and other impacts of such medicines,” the analyst said.
Sales of Vascepa, Amarin’s only product, have been hit hard by the coronavirus. Physician practice closures affected Amarin’s marketing and sales initiative following the FDA’s approval to expand Vascepa’s label last December. Some states have seen a gradual opening, allowing for limited access, but many still do not allow for physical access.
“Nonetheless, we are starting to see patients return to their doctors for ordinary care, which is a great step forward. We anticipate the growth in Vascepa prescription number to gain momentum again once lockdowns ease in 2H20,” Chen commented.
Chen is also confident another serious overhang can be removed. Amarin is currently embroiled in a court case against two generic companies seeking to make their own versions of Vascepa. Amarin lost the case but has since appealed. Chen believes Amarin has a “good probability of winning,” ascribing a 50% chance of success, far higher than the 15-20% overall appeal success rate.
All in all, Chen rates AMRN an Overweight (i.e. Buy) along with a $35 price target. The implication for investors? Massive upside potential of 420% from current levels. (To watch Chen’s track record, click here)
The Street also remains bullish on Amarin, though not quite to the same extent as Chen. The analyst consensus rates Amarin a Moderate Buy based on 7 Buy ratings and 5 Holds. There is still plenty of upside according to the analysts, as the $17.56 average price target implies possible gains amounting to 155%. (See Amarin price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for healthcare stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
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Is Hertz (HTZ) Stock Worth the Risky Ride? Analyst Weighs In
2020 has seen a wave of chaos hit the stock market. Now, you can add the shenanigans surrounding bankrupt car rental company Hertz (HTZ) to the list, too.
After filing for bankruptcy last month, perplexingly, Hertz stock soared by more than 1,200%, mostly as a result of speculative investors piling in on a penny stock’s momentum play. However, since peaking on June 9, the volatility has been off the charts. Last week, in sequential sessions, the stock dropped by 24%, 40%, 18%, and then climbed 37% higher following news that Hertz had inexplicably received the go ahead to issue up to $1 billion in new stock.
Stunning Wall Street, Hertz was delisted from the NYSE, which has led to the coining of a new term: the IBO – Initial Bankruptcy Offering.
The volatility continued on Monday as Hertz shares dropped by 33% following management’s admission in an 8-K filing that the additional $500 million worth of common stock it plans on selling will probably be “worthless.”
As part of the 8-K filing, Hertz detailed its expected cash outlay for the period between May 25 and August 21, and based on a back of the envelope calculation, Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Woronka estimates the cash burn for the period will “probably be close to $1.2 billion.”
Along with the equity raise, Woronka estimates Hertz will try and sell between 25-30% of its fleet to raise additional cash. With no plans to use the money to replenish its fleet, this just raises more questions concerning Hertz’ future.
The analyst said, “At some point the company will need to ‘turn over’ its existing fleet and purchase new vehicles as replacements in order to offer customers a competitive product… We believe the natural cycle suggests this would likely need to occur ahead of the summer 2021 peak. It's unclear to us whether HTZ will have ample liquidity (or borrowing power) with which to fund new fleet purchases, particularly since the existing fleet will have moved further down the depreciation curve relative to where a fleet on a ‘normal’ replacement cycle would be at that time (since HTZ did not replace those vehicles with new ones this summer).”
Woronka, therefore, remains on the sidelines. The Deutsche Bank analyst has a Hold rating on Hertz and “based on a 2022E free cash flow recovery scenario,” a $3 price target. Based on this target, the risk-tolerant investor could take home a 66% gain, should the target be met over the next 12 months. (To watch Woronka’s track record, click here)
Overall, the Street’s view on Hertz presents a strange conundrum. On the one hand, based on 3 hold ratings, and 4 Sells, the bankrupt rental car company has a Moderate Sell consensus rating. However, the average price target of $2.63 represents possible upside of nearly 35%. (See Hertz price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.