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The Market Underestimates Apple’s Massive Buyback Program, Says RBC
Apple (AAPL) has more than earned its reputation as a trend setter. According to RBC analyst Robert Muller, besides its position as a tech innovator, Apple is also “in a league of its own when it comes to share repurchases.”
Muller argues the market is underestimating the financial impact Apple’s aggressive share buyback policy will have over the next few years.
“We estimate that within our base case, AAPL can grow its EPS at a 3.5% CAGR over the next 5-years if we assume zero growth beyond FY20 while continuing its repurchase pace of ~$70 billion annually. What this implies, to us, is that the potential uplift from the upcoming 5G upgrade cycle is being discounted by the market (in addition to recent robust Wearables and Services growth as well as any potential future product innovations),” Muller explained.
How long can Apple maintain its current program?
Muller believes if Apple continues to grow its top-line at its current rate of 3-4%, while maintaining its annual $70 billion share repurchase initiative, it has a decade left before reaching its stated target of becoming “cash neutral.”
Even considering a “no organic growth scenario,” Muller estimates the tech giant can keep up the current rate of buyback activity until mid-2023.
“At which point,” Muller adds, “AAPL could then repurchase ~$45 billion of shares indefinitely without affecting its net cash position. We note that this is on top of nearly $15 billion of annual dividend payments.”
To this end, Muller reiterated an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating on Apple, while raising the price target from $345 to $390. The upside potential from current levels is 9%. (To watch Muller’s track record, click here)
Overall, Apple's Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 29 Buys, 4 Holds and 1 Sell. However, after recently notching another all-time high, the $340.23 average price target suggests possible downside of 5%. (See Apple stock-price forecast on TipRanks)
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