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Nike Stock Will Surge 15% From Current Levels, Says Analyst
The coronavirus’ impact spares no one. Nike (NKE) surprised Wall Street on Friday, when the sportwear giant took a beating by COVID-19 in its F4Q20 earnings report. The market reacted as the market does and sent shares down by 7.5% in the session.
In the quarter, the swish machine reported revenue of $6.31 billion, exhibiting a 38% year-over-year drop and missing the estimates by $950 million. GAAP EPS of -$0.51 missed by $0.54. The overall decline pressured gross profit margin, which came in at 37.3%, lower than the Street’s call for 43.4%.
Broken down by region, sales in the U.S. dropped by 46%, and in Europe by 44%. Only China came in positive, clocking a slight 1% uptick, with sales improving during the quarter.
It was impossible to avoid the coronavirus’ devastating effect across the globe. For eight weeks in F4Q, 90% of Nike stores were shut across North America, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) and APLA (Asia Pacific & Latin America). While digital demand pushed ahead, showing 79% year-over-year growth, it could not make up for the overall slump in retail sales.
90% of Nike stores have now reopened, and despite improving traffic, the numbers are still down year-over-year, prompting Nike to guide for lower F1H21 sales.
However, the crushing quarterly statement hasn’t dimmed Needham analyst Rick Patel’s enthusiasm for Nike. The analyst expects the footwear and apparel giant to bounce back “faster, leaner and stronger.”
Patel commented, “Covid-19 hurt Nike sales more than expected in F4Q20, and FY21 sales growth is planned to be muted. Despite headwinds that should continue through F1H21, we view NKE’s LT bull case remains intact: 1) Growth through direct channels is accelerating due to digital demand; 2) Greater China has already rebounded to positive growth and remains an attractive LT opportunity; 3) Innovative products and marketing are driving outperformance of women’s and kids, areas of strategic importance; and 4) data science is enabling better decision-making, benefiting sales and margins.”
Accordingly, Patel reiterated a Buy on NKE along with a $113 price target. Upside from current levels is 15%. (To watch Patel’s track record, click here)
Overall, sentiment remains extremely positive across the Street. 1 Sell and 4 Holds are up against 21 Buys, which coalesce to a Strong Buy consensus rating. There is 18% upside in the cards, should the average price target of $110.21 be met over the next 12 months. (See Nike stock-price forecast on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
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Will Tesla Match Q1 Deliveries? This Analyst Crunches the Numbers
Tesla (TSLA) shares have put together an impressive run in 2020, to say the least. The market has reacted favorably to reports of strong demand for Model 3s in China, a strong Q1 report and a penchant for tech growth stocks. As a result, shares have skyrocketed by a massive 158% since the turn of the year.
Later this week, Tesla will announce 2Q20 delivery and production numbers and Wall Street will be keen to gauge the coronavirus’ impact on operations. Along with shuttered businesses around the world, Tesla’s sole US factory in Fremont, California, was shut down for much of the quarter.
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner expects Tesla to hit 76,000 deliveries in Q2, of which 60,000 are Model 3s, 8,000 Models S+X and 8,000 Model Ys. Consensus expects Tesla to deliver 67,000 vehicles.
Breaking down Tesla’s main regions, the analyst estimates that in the US, Tesla will notch up 15,000 deliveries, down by 60% year-over-year, and an additional 10,000 in Europe (4,000 in the UK), and close to 30,000 in China, with South Korea and Canada making up the bulk of the rest.
The estimates indicate a drop from the prior quarter. In Q1, Tesla reported delivery of 88,400 vehicles, in what amounted to its best ever performance.
The weaker volumes are on Rosner’s mind when forecasting 2Q results. Rosner said, “We trim our 2Q revenue from $5.03bn to $4.97bn (also reflecting intra-quarter price cuts in the US) and lower auto GM from 13.9% to 13.5% (16.6% ex credit), leading to EPS of -$1.77 vs. prior -$1.66. This compares to consensus $4.8bn and -$1.61. For free cash flow, we expect a burn of about $500m mainly dragged down by A/P, largely unchanged from prior expectations.”
All in all, Rosner keeps a Hold rating on Tesla, yet nudges the price target up from $850 to $900. Therefore, Rosner expects shares to drop by 17% over the coming months. (To watch Rosner’s track record, click here)
Rosner's colleagues are reading from the same manual. Consensus rates Tesla a Hold, based on 7 buys, 9 Holds and 10 Sell ratings. However, sentiment on the Street is rather more bearish as the average price target comes in at $727.65, representing potential downside of 32% from current levels. (See Tesla stock analysis on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.