As the first month of the New Year ends, longer-dated yields are higher by .393% from the end of 2023 when the Fed Chairman attempted to play Santa Claus by offering interest rate cut probabilities. The Fed can control short-term rates, but the long end of the yield curve is market-driven. And it is letting Powell know they don't believe his recent comments.
Walt Disney stock trades at remarkably low levels, and is down by over half from its peak. Here's why media giant DIS has underperformed consistently, while streaming rival Netflix's stock has soared over the last year.
As Apple (
NASDAQ:AAPL
) and Meta Platforms (
NASDAQ:META
) battle their way into the Metaverse, it's easy to forget about Roblox (
NASDAQ:RBLX
), a metaverse play that's already proven how lucrative the market can be, especially for young audiences. Indeed, the Metaverse is more about gaming or work. Roblox's platform has shown us just how profound digital "experiences" can be and how a metaverse-like universe can connect us in ways we never thought possible.
As the Metaverse term looks to make its way to the top of headlines (again) in 2024, Roblox will be a stock to watch as it looks to climb out of the ditch it fell into back in late 2021 and early 2022. At this juncture, Wall Street is just mildly optimistic about the firm's prospects over the year ahead. Personally, I think Wall Street is a tad too cautious on Roblox stock, given the potential for the Metaverse to make a significant comeback in the new year as Apple looks to test the market with its Vision Pro headset.
It's not hard to imagine many folks underestimating metaverse plays like Roblox this year. As the company looks to add to its ecosystem in 2024, I can't help but stay bullish on the stock.
Roblox's Recent Momentum Can Continue, as Metaverse Hype Can Grow Again
Indeed, generative artificial intelligence (AI) has been the hottest of the hot tech trends over the past year, and while it seems tough to top, I think the Metaverse could re-emerge as a theme that attracts some of the investors who believe gen AI has gotten a tad too ahead of itself.
Apple's massive user base will begin to explore an all-new medium (augmented and virtual reality), which could prove the successor of personal computers. Whether Roblox will be quick to launch a Vision Pro app remains to be seen, as many firms seem to be holding out in these initial stages. Regardless, I'd not discount the power of Roblox as the Metaverse investment theme looks to heat up again.
Just last week, Roth MKM reiterated its Buy rating on shares of RBLX (with a $50.00 price target, implying 23.7% upside), citing their belief that the year could be "bright" for the firm. Roth analysts Eric Handler and Rohit Kulkarni both like the stock and its "very attractive setup" that could beef up bookings growth from here.
I'm in agreement. Handler and Kulkarni really do understand Roblox's growth narrative. With many growth and monetization levers to pull, it's likely a mistake to think Roblox stock is destined for another year of consolidation.
Roblox stock has been on a nice run since bottoming out in autumn,
with shares now up around 60% from their 52-week lows of approximately $25 per share. Even with the recent 13% correction off 52-week highs, Roblox still looks incredibly intriguing if you're in the belief that the Metaverse trend could return to the spotlight again while the company does its best to get its wheels fully back on the growth track.
Roblox Has a Wide Moat, but There are Competitors Out There
Roblox's ecosystem is impressive and acts as a flywheel for growth as more users create content to win over the engagement of fellow players. With many different worlds and experiences available to players, the possibilities of digital places to hang out with friends are virtually endless. Roblox isn't the only video game firm to implement such a model, though.
Fortnite is an incredibly popular Battle Royale game that's become quite Roblox-like with recent updates. With a wide selection of user-generated worlds and games, Fortnite stands out as a potential threat that could take a big chunk of Roblox's lunch, especially from older gaming audiences.
Fortunately, Roblox is doing its best to stay relevant with its users, even as they grow up. Though industry dynamics are sure to shift with every new industry combatant, I'd not be so quick to count Roblox out of the game.
In a
prior piece, I highlighted the importance of maintaining attraction with users as they age. Thus far, Roblox has done a reasonable job, but whether it can outcompete ever-strengthening rivals for engagement remains to be seen.
Is RBLX Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
On TipRanks, RBLX stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 22 analyst ratings, there are 15 Buys, four Hold recommendations, and three Sell recommendations. The
average RBLX stock price target is $44.74, implying upside potential of 10.7%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $21.00 per share to a high of $55.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on Roblox Stock
There's a lot to love about Roblox stock as the Metaverse looks to reappear in the limelight this year. Though Roblox has numerous levers it can pull to gain traction in 2024, investors must also keep tabs on rivals as more companies recognize the economic profits to be had in the realm of the Metaverse and its like.
Disclosure
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The Kraft Heinz Company KHC is keen on transforming its business to unleash its full potential. The consumer products company is focused on effective pricing strategies to counter inflationary headwinds.Let’s discuss this in detai
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Investors often debate the merits of active versus index (passive) ETFs, but they can get the best of both worlds with the Avantis US Equity ETF (
NYSEARCA:AVUS
).
I’m bullish on this $5.8 billion ETF because I like its differentiated strategy, which combines some of the benefits of index investing, like excellent diversification and a low expense ratio, with active management in an effort to generate enhanced results. Additionally, it has proven itself as a winner with a strong three-year track record.
What is the AVUS ETF’s Strategy?
According to fund sponsor Avantis, which is part of American Century, AVUS “invests in a broad set of U.S. companies across all market capitalizations and is designed to increase expected returns by overweighting securities we believe to be trading at lower valuations and with higher profitability ratios.”
AVUS does this by placing more emphasis on stocks that its portfolio managers expect will generate higher returns, with a skew towards stocks with smaller market caps, higher profitability, and cheaper valuations. It then underweights or excludes stocks that the portfolio's management team expects to generate lower returns, including some stocks with larger market caps, lower profitability, and more expensive valuations.
AVUS “pursues the benefits associated with indexing (diversification, low turnover, transparency of exposures), but with the ability to add value by making investment decisions using information in current prices.”
Essentially, AVUS takes the time-tested strategy of index investing and sprinkles in a bit of active management to try to boost returns.
Supreme Diversification
AVUS holds 2,273 stocks, offering investors supreme diversification. Furthermore, its top 10 holdings account for just 20.0% of the fund, so it isn’t overly concentrated in just a few large holdings like some funds are.
Because AVUS holds 2,273 stocks, it gives investors exposure to a much broader set of securities than the typical S&P 500 (
SPX
) funds, which own the 503 stocks in the S&P 500).
Furthermore, its lower allocation to its top 10 holdings means that AVUS is more diversified and less concentrated than popular broad-market funds that invest in the S&P 500 like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (
NYSEARCA:VOO
) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (
NYSEARCA:SPY
). These two prominent ETFs allocate
30.8% and
31.9% of assets towards their top 10 holdings, respectively.
AVUS is also diversified in terms of the sectors that it invests in. Information technology is the fund’s largest weighting, at 21%, followed by financials at 16% and consumer discretionary at 13%.
Below is an overview of the
AVUS ETF’s top 10 holdings using TipRanks’ holdings tool.
As you can see, AVUS owns many of the mega-cap stocks that have propelled the stock market higher in recent years, like the "magnificent seven"
tech stocks. However, because it goes underweight on many large-cap stocks and stocks with more expensive valuations, it has smaller weightings towards these stocks than broad-market index funds like VOO, SPY, and others.
On the other hand, Lam Research (
NASDAQ:LRCX
) and Applied Materials (
NASDAQ:AMAT
) are good examples of stocks that AVUS overweights to its advantage.
Lam Research and Applied Materials are both companies that make equipment used in the
semiconductor manufacturing process, and they have market capitalizations of $114.1 billion and $143.5 billion, respectively. Both rank within AVUS’ top 30 holdings, ahead of stocks with much larger market caps like UnitedHealth (
NYSE:UNH
) and Merck (
NYSE:MRK
), which feature market caps of $456.4 billion and $304.4 billion, respectively.
This selective weighting has worked out well for the fund, as Lam Research and Applied Materials are up 76.0% and 50.7% over the past year, while UnitedHealth and Merck are up 1.7% and 15.6%, respectively. For full transparency, these are just a few stocks that were cherrypicked, and there are likely examples where overweighting certain stocks didn't work out as well, but overall, this gives a general idea of what AVUS is trying to do to add to its returns.
Lam Research and Applied Materials also boast strong Smart Scores of 10 and 8, respectively. The
Smart Score is a proprietary quantitative stock scoring system created by TipRanks. It gives stocks a score from 1 to 10 based on eight market key factors. A score of 8 or above is equivalent to an Outperform rating.
As you can see, AVUS offers many of the benefits of an index fund, but by targeting stocks that it believes can generate better returns, it has the ability to generate additional upside. Obviously, this strategy can backfire, but so far, it has generated solid results, as we’ll discuss below.
Results Show That the Strategy is Working So Far
AVUS launched in September 2019, so it hasn’t been around long enough to compile a decades-long track record. But its results over the last few years are promising.
As of December 31, 2023, the fund generated a double-digit annualized return of 10.5% over a three-year period. This was slightly better than larger broad-market ETFs like VOO and SPY, which generated annualized returns of 10.0% and 9.9%, respectively, over the same time frame.
A Cost-Effective Expense Ratio
With an expense ratio of just 0.15%, AVUS is a cost-effective option for investors. An 0.15% expense ratio means an investor will pay just $15 in fees on a $10,000 investment annually. Assuming that the expense ratio remains 0.15% and the fund returns 5% per annum going forward, this investor initially allocating $10,000 into the fund would pay just $192 in fees over a 10-year time horizon.
A 0.15% expense ratio is a bit more than many broad-market index funds charge (for example, the aforementioned VOO and SPY charge 0.03% and 0.09%, respectively), but it is still very cheap in the grand scheme of things. Many active and passively-managed funds charge much more than this, with lesser results.
Is AVUS Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, AVUS earns a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 1,546 Buys, 654 Holds, and 74 Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The
average AVUS stock price target of $90.57 implies 9.4% upside potential.
The Best of Both Worlds
With a well-diversified portfolio, cost-effective expense ratio, and strong three-year total returns, AVUS is the type of ETF that investors can use as a building block for their portfolios. It gives investors many of the benefits of investing in broad-market index funds but adds in a dash of active management, which can produce a bit of upside over time. This makes it an appealing and differentiated ETF that investors can build their portfolios around.
Disclosure
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After the old crop contracts extended their premium through the week, futures faded by triple digits to the old crop’s Friday losses of 50 points. That left the March contract with a weekly gain of 42 points, the Dec contract with a weekly gain of 40 points and the old...
Johnson & Johnson (
NYSE:JNJ
) stock's investment case is highly correlated with its underlying dividend prospects. As a healthcare giant with iconic brands like Band-Aid and Listerine, along with a diverse pharmaceutical and medical device portfolio, Johnson & Johnson has earned the trust of income-focused investors. With 61 consecutive years of dividend increases and another hike imminent, let's explore what is worth considering in the interim and why I am neutral on JNJ stock.
Johnson & Johnson's Dividend is Utterly Recession-Proof
The first point that I want to make clear is that
Johnson and Johnson's dividend is utterly recession-proof. That's a bold claim, I know. In fact, it's important to address the skepticism that often surrounds the term "recession-proof." Numerous companies previously deemed recession-proof have cut their dividends, as illustrated by the case of AT&T (
NYSE:T
).
Despite its surely recession-proof business model, as a provider of essential telecommunication services, the company was forced to cut its dividend in 2022 due to its unsustainable debt burden. This cautionary tale underscores the significance of being prudent and never taking any past trend for granted, especially when it comes to dividend growth.
Nevertheless, and despite my efforts to scrutinize and challenge this claim, it is very hard to question the strength of Johnson & Johnson's dividend regardless of the underlying economic landscape.
Johnson & Johnson boasts an incredibly diverse portfolio featuring a multitude of cutting-edge MedTech products. From general surgery and orthopedics to pharmaceuticals, vision care solutions, and a wide array of consumer health products, investing in Johnson & Johnson is more like buying a healthcare and consumer staples ETF rather than a single company.
The company's healthcare products are critical for doctors to treat their patients. Simultaneously, the company's consumer staple products, like Band-Aid and Listerine, benefit from highly consistent sales due to their household staple nature. Therefore,
Johnson & Johnson's cash flow profile tends to be extremely robust, ensuring its dividend remains well covered at all times.
To support this argument with data, no three-year period in Johnson & Johnson's history has featured no revenue growth. The company has also continuously grown its adjusted earnings per share, maintaining a healthy payout ratio despite increasing the dividend year after year for more than six decades. Fiscal 2023 was no different, with Johnson & Johnson reporting adjusted earnings per share growth of 11.1% to $9.92, implying a payout ratio of just under 48% based on the $4.76 annualized dividend per share.
Finally, it's worth mentioning that Johnson and Johnson is one of the only two publicly-traded companies, along with Microsoft (
NASDAQ:MSFT
), that have been granted a AAA credit rating by Standard & Poor's (as of August). The company is considered more creditworthy than the U.S. Government, whose credit rating has been downgraded to AA+. I believe this speaks volumes in terms of its overall financial soundness and, thus, ability to sufficiently cover its dividend along with other obligations/commitments.
Another Dividend Hike is Coming -- What to Consider
With Johnson & Johnson having already declared four $1.19 quarterly dividends, another dividend hike is likely coming. The company has increased its dividend every April or May as far back in time as one can see, so it's safe to assume that this year will be no different. While a dividend hike usually marks a reason to celebrate, particularly when it comes from seasoned dividend growers that income investors love, I believe that this is not the case with Johnson and Johnson and more.
Specifically, despite the company's legendary dividend growth history, there is no doubt that dividend growth has undergone a clear deceleration trend, reaching a point of frustration. The company's 10-year compound annual growth rate seen over various periods paints a clear picture. Johnson & Johnson's 10-year dividend per share CAGR stood at:
14.8% in 2006
14.0% in 2008
13.4% in 2010
12.4% in 2012
9.7% in 2014
8.8% in 2016
7.0% in 2018
6.6% in 2021
6.4% in 2023
The trend is clear, with gradually smaller increases over time reducing the company's average dividend growth rate. Last year's dividend increase of just 5.3% was the weakest of them, pointing toward the fact that this trend won't be reversing anytime soon.
Given that Johnson & Johnson's yield is not tremendous, standing at 2.9%, it's hard to be excited about the company's dividend prospects in the face of such a continuous deceleration. The deceleration appears rather puzzling, considering the ample coverage provided by earnings. Nevertheless, the sustained nature of this trend suggests a deliberate strategy by management. In my view, this will weigh negatively on JNJ stock investors despite the company's otherwise unparalleled qualities.
Is JNJ Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Regarding Wall Street’s view on the stock, Johnson & Johnson has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on eight Buys and seven Holds assigned in the past three months. At $177.67, the
average JNJ stock forecast implies 11.4% upside potential.
If you’re wondering which analyst you should follow if you want to buy and sell JNJ stock, the most profitable analyst covering the stock (on a one-year timeframe) is Danielle Antalffy of UBS, with an average return of 9.77% per rating and a 100% success rate. Click on the image below to learn more.
The Takeaway
Overall, while Johnson & Johnson's dividend growth track record displays remarkable resilience and underscores the company's recession-proof characteristics, the evident deceleration in dividend growth is a cause for concern.
The company's diverse portfolio and robust cash flow position it as a reliable investment, but the slowing trend in dividend increases may impact investor sentiment. With another dividend hike on the horizon, I believe that investors should expect another below-average growth rate despite the company posting double-digit adjusted EPS growth in its Fiscal 2023 results.
Disclosure
Carter's, Inc. CRI has been doing well thanks to its robust business strategies. The company is benefiting from the success of its pricing strategy, inventory management efforts and improved product offerings. Management is focuse
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